WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TREND LCCC LIFE Program April 7, 2012 Cheyenne, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division Stateof Wyoming Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1
Increasingly Solid National Economy The economic recovery is gaining traction: Job growth largest 3 month increases since 2006. Unemployment insurance claim lowest in 4 years. Consumer confidence is rising highest in 4 years. Companies are in excellent financial shape. Manufacturing is growing stronger. Automobile sales are gaining highest in 4 years. Construction has turned the corner. Europe threat is subsiding. Banks are lending. Stock market is rising. Negative factors: Surging gasoline price. Still depressed housing market. Slower growth in emerging markets. Long term deficit. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 2
March 2012 price recorded the highest March Price ever Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 3
Regular Retail Gasoline Prices by State: March 2012 HI: $4.60 AK, CA, IL: $4.30 WY: $3.50 CT, D.C., IN, MI, NY, OR, WA: >$4.00 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 4
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Populatio on 575,000 550,000 Wyoming Population and Net Migration: 1970 to 2011 Population Net Migration 20,000 15,000 525,000 10,000 500,000 5,000 475,000 0 Net 450,000 425,000-5,000-10,000 Migration 400,000-15,000 375,000-20,000 350,000000-25,000 325,000 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10-30,000 Net Migration = Inmigration - Outmigration Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 8
12 th Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 9
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Wyoming Population and Change by Race and Ethnicity: 2000 to 2010 Race/Ethnicity 2000 2010 # Change % Change White 438,799 483,874874 45,075 10.3% Black 3,504 4,351 847 24.2% American Indian 10,238 11,784 1,546 15.1% Asian 2,670 4,279 1,609 60.3% Hispanic 31,669 50,231 18,562 58.6% Other 6,902 9,107 2,205 31.9% (mixed race) TOTAL 493,782 563,626 69,844 14.1% Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 12
Population Distribution by Race and Hispanic: 2010 Asian 47% 4.7% Amer. Indian 0.7% Other 2.3% Black 12.2% U.S. Hispanic 16.3% White 63.7% Wyoming Asian 08% 0.8% Other Hispanic 1.6% 8.9% Amer. Indian 2.1% Black 0.8% White 85.9% Percent of White: HI 22.7% D.C. 34.8% CA 40.1% NM 40.5% TX 45.3% ME 94.4% VT 94.3% WV 93.2% NH 92.3% ND 88.9% Wyoming ranked 9 th highesth Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 13
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Population Aging Speed and pattern aredetermined by 3 principal factors: Most timportant tis the Secular decline in fertility rates sustained increase in the ratio of old to young (<5 vs. 65 & +). Mortality rates declined substantially in many countries over the past century (rising life expectancy: Japan=83, US=79) public health, medical tech, standards of living. Bb Baby boom in developed dcountries ti pronounced rise in post WWII fertility rates. Percent of Population 65 and over: Japan = 22%; Germany = 20%; Western Europe = 19%. WORLD = 8%. U.S. = 13.0% in 2010, 19.3% in 2030. Wyoming = 12.4% in 2010, 20.5% in 2030. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 19
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Male 2000 2010 Female 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Male 2020 2030 Female 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 21
Employment by Industry for Wyoming and U.S.: 2010 (Includes: full and part-time wage and salary jobs, and proprietors employment) U.S. Wyoming All Other 20.9% Agriculture 2.0% Mining 0.7% Construction 5.1% Manufactur. 7.0% All Other 19.1% Agriculture 4.0% Mining 7.8% Construction 8.1% Government 14.2% Leisure & Hospitality 9.1% Educational and Health Services 13.3% Wholesale & Retail Trade 13.7% Professional & Business Services 14.0% Government 19.4% Leisure & Hospitality 10.1% Educational and Health Services 8.5% Manufactur. 2.8% Wholesale & Retail Trade 12.4% Professional & Business Services 7.8% Wyoming = 385,704 U.S. = 173,752,400 Mining - 1st Construction 2nd Leisure & Hospitality - 4th Government - 4th Manufacturing 49 th Prof. & Bus. Svcs. 48 th Educ. & Health Svcs. 49 th Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 22
Gross Domestic Product for Wyoming and U.S.: 2010 by Industry U.S. Wyoming All Other 32.9% Agriculture 1.1% Mining 1.9% Construction 3.5% Manufactur. 11.8% All Other 21.4% Agriculture 1.1% Mining 31.4% Wholesale & Retail Trade 11.5% Government 13.4% Government 12.7% Professional & Business Services 12.2% Leisure & Hospitality 3.6% Educational and Health Leisure & Educational Services Professional Hospitality and Health 4.2% & Business Wholesale & 3.6% Services Services Retail Trade 8.8% 4.0% 9.0% Construction 44% 4.4% Manufactur. 7.5% Note: GDP is often referred to as its "value added", is equal to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported). Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 23
W ) Non-Agr Wage and Salary Employment for Wyoming and U.S. (Number of jobs) 300 Wyoming US 160,000 mployment (in thousands) 280 260 240 220 200 180 Job growth rate: 2006=5.1%, 2007=4.1%, 2008=3.3% 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000000 110,000 100,000 U.S. Emplo oyment (in th Wyoming Em 160 140 90,000 80,000 ousands) 120 70,000 100 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 60,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 24
Percent Wyoming and US Unemployment Rates: 1977-2011 Annual Average 10.0 10.0 9.0 U.S Wyoming 9.0 8.0 8.0 70 7.0 70 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 0 2.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 25
350,000000 Oct 08 300,000 +8,400 20,100 250,000 200,000 150,000 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 26
Non farm Employment by State Percentage Change (Seasonally Adjusted) Fb February 2011 Fb February 2012 1.6% U.S. = 1.5% Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 27
Unemployment Rate by State February 2012 (Seasonally Adjusted) 5.4% U.S. = 8.3% Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 28
Wyoming Revenue and Tax Facts Tax structure reliant on extractive industries. Mineral income currently makes up about two thirds of State and half of Local Government revenue. FY 2011 Mineral income is obtained from: Mineral severance taxes ($945.3 million). Federal mineral royalties ($942.4 million). Mineral property taxes ($962.1 1million) million). Sales and use taxes ($167.3 million). Income from PWMTF ($215.8 million). No income tax, low property and sales tax rates (food exemption). Near top rank in per capita state and local government revenue and expenditures. Household tax burden ranks among the lowest in the nation. Mineral portion is exported out of state. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 29
$1,200 $1,100 $1,000 Mineral Severance Taxes: FY1980 - FY2012 (in millions of current dollars) Other Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Wyoming CREG Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 30
$30,000000 $28,000 $26,000 Total Locally and State Assessed Valuation (in millions of current dollars) Coal Natural Gas Oil Other $24,000 $22,000 $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 * Other includes other minerals, real and personal property Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 31
Per Capita Personal Income for US and Wyoming $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000000 $5,000 U.S. Wyoming Rank in U.S. since 2008: 6 th up 54% from 2002 to 2008 1996: 33 rd $0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 32
24 20 16 12 Annual Percent Change of Single Family House Price U.S. Wyoming Estimates use all-transactions index which includes purchase and refinance mortgages 24 20 16 12 8 8 4 4 0 0-4 -4-8 -8-12 -12-16 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009-16 Source: Federal Housing Finanace Agency (http://www.fhfa.gov/) /) Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division (http://eadiv.state.wy.us) Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 33
5,000 Residential Building Permits Authorized in Wyoming 4,500 4,000 Multi-Family Units Single-Family Units 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Wyoming Economic Analysis DIvision Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 34
WY economy will continue to improve, though gradually population grow <1%, and employment will grow about 1.5%; unemployment rate remains around 5%. global commodity demand and recent US U.S. uptrend momentum. Expansion of oil development from Niobara Shale, uranium mining from global interest in nuclear power, and development of wind resources. The lagging construction ction industry should have bottomedout. Housing market will recover from the mild correction. Stellar wage growth supports consumers spending and residential construction. Because of its large proportion and pivotal role in WY s economy, the improvement or deterioration in mining industry will trigger into other economic sections. Tourism industry will benefit from national recovery will bolster tourists spending ability. Weak dollar supports international visitors. Negative Factors: persistence of extremely low NG price could impact revenue, coal industry, overall economic recovery to a great extent. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 35
Robust Supply tech(hf, HD) Record Storage mild weather Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 36
THANK YOU! Economic Analysis Division EAD Wyoming s Source for Business and Economic Information http://eadiv.state.wy.us ai ead info@wyo.gov (307) 777 7504 7504 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 37