PROFIT RECALL vbeta 2 USER GUIDE
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CONTENTS DISCLAIMER CONTENTS INTRODUCTION HOW TO USE PROFIT RECALL Quick Start Approach 1 Approach 2 HANDICAPPING WITH PROFIT RECALL THE THREE STAGES OF HANDICAPPING ELIMINATIONS AND CONTENDERS WAGERING ASSUMPTIONS USING THE PROFIT RECALL ODDS LINES PROBABILITY PWR PUBLIC ODDS SETTINGS PUBLIC ODDS (per horse) NON RUNNERS HIGHLIGHTED HORSES 2
INTRODUCTION In our battle with the bookies we want to use every tool we have available to beat them. Profit Recall is one of the most advanced tools on the market to help you fight in this battle. It s original design is based on the processes that betting teams use to create their statistical models. Every single race has different race conditions and different horses. That makes them unique. Each race contains a huge amount of information and as bettors it is our job to dissect that information, determine what is important for each specific race and then analyse it to discover the strongest horses. That s exactly what Profit Recall does for you in just a few seconds. Please be aware that while Profit Recall is a very advanced piece of software, it will not get it right 100% of the time. That s impossible. It does however give you a significant edge over the market and that makes you a good profit. When you open a race using Profit Recall it starts by looking at the race conditions and the horses in the race. It then goes through hundreds of thousands of races and millions of runners to determine which races in the past have been similar to the current one. With these races it then analyses hundreds of ratings to discover which have proven to be the most predictive in the past. It then uses these most predictive ratings to create the Profit Recall power rating and rank. A single number that indicates the strength of each runner in the race. Over thousands of races the top rated horses have won 21.9% of their races. These horses on their own are nearly break even at Betfair SP without doing anything else. If you only take these horses in maiden races then you will make a small profit to Betfair SP. However, you can make far more! Throughout the rest of this guide I will be showing you a strategy that I use with the Profit Recall power rating to find profitable bets. It s important that you read the guide to understand the process that is taking place. I have provided a spreadsheet to do the 3
calculations for you, but I strongly recommend you read this entire guide first to understand the concepts. Of course you can use this tool in whatever way is most suitable for your betting, it s not just limited to the method outlined in the rest of this guide, and I encourage you to test your own approaches. All the best, The Race Advisor 4
HOW TO USE PROFIT RECALL Visit http://members.raceadvisor.co.uk and login using the username and password that you were sent via email. Go to Your Tools in the main menu and then select Races. 5
You will then see a list of races for that day's racing. Next choose a race that you want to look at by clicking on the time of the race. Click on the Profit Recall tab and the software will begin calculating the scores for that race. Depending on how many horses in the race, and how fast your internet connection is, it may take anything from a few seconds to thirty seconds to calculate the scores You will also see that the horses get listed in order of highest score to lowest and are colour coded from green to red to indicate the strongest runners to the weakest. 6
Quick Start Approach 1 The quickest way to get started is to focus on the horse ranked 1 in Profit Recall. We know these horses win nearly 22% of their races and break even to Betfair SP. Take this horse, check they re in the top five in the betting and then have a quick look at their form to confirm that the horse has the ability to compete in this race. If you re not confident in looking at form then use the following sites to check the comments for the horse, if they re all positive then your horse is a strong bet. www.racingpost.com www.sportinglife.com www.timeform.com www.racinguk.com Doing this will find you a lot of winners. Approach 2 Focus on horses ranked 1 in maiden races. These horses win 28.50% of the time and make a small flat bet profit to Betfair SP. Take these runners, check they re in the top five in the betting and then have a quick look at their form to confirm that the horse has the ability to compete in this race. 7
HANDICAPPING WITH PROFIT RECALL THE THREE STAGES OF HANDICAPPING With Profit Recall you have access to information that the majority of bettors will never have. Information that will allow you leap ahead of them and take advantage of the bookmakers. In all handicapping I recommend a three pronged approach. This goes: 1. Find Eliminations 2. Find Contenders 3. Determine Profitable Wagers Most bettors try and jump over the first two stages and go straight to stage three because they re in a rush to find and place their bets. In doing so they re significantly reducing the chance they have of making a profit. There are very few races in which only one horse (or two for that matter) has a chance at winning. The majority of races have at least three or four horses that have a decent chance of winning and sometimes it can be significantly more. It s this very situation that can make you feel overwhelmed and confused as to which horse is likely to win when looking at a race. The truth is a number of them could win. By following the three step process above we are starting by removing the horses we believe have no chance. Doing this means we re not wasting time comparing a horse s performance with another horse that has no chance of contending. Once we ve got rid of the eliminations we have left the runners who have at least some potential. From these we want to find the Contenders, the strongest runners. You now have three groups. The horses that have no chance, the strongest horses and those who have potential but will probably only win if something happens to all the contenders. Only when you ve done these two stages do you want to move on to determining whether one of your Contenders is likely to be a profitable wager. This is where you look for value in the odds. 8
But it s not just about value. You may have an odds on runner who is most likely to win the race but whose odds aren t offering value. However there s no point in betting in this race if you aren t betting on this runner as it has the highest chance of winning. What do you do? You either move on to the next race. Or you place a bet on the odds on runner as a saver bet so you break even if that horse wins, meanwhile you place a bet on a Contender that s offering value in the odds and that will make you a good profit if they do win. ELIMINATIONS AND CONTENDERS I m grouping the first two stages together in this section, but they are defined elements of our process. For Elimination we use a very simple process which I learned years ago off well known US handicapper Dave Schwartz. We take the number of runners in the field, divide it by two and add one. For example in a 10 runner field the sum would be: 10 2 = 5 + 1 = 6 That means we would take the top 6 runners in the field and eliminate the rest. If the result of this sum ends in a decimal, for example in a 13 runner race 13 2 = 6.5 + 1 = 7.5 In this situation I would round this up to 8. So that elimination process is quick and simple and means you should be be finding well over 80% of the winners are left. Now we need to move on to the Contender process. Again we re going to be keeping this simple and focusing on the top three rated runners. These runners win nearly 52% of all their races. You may be wondering why we bothered eliminating the horses first if we re just going to be focusing on the top three rated. 9
And that s a good question. While our focus is the top three, we re not forgetting that any of the horses we have left still have a strong chance of winning the race. Remember over 80% of the winners will come from this group, 52% are going to be coming from our top three and that means 28% will come from the others we haven t eliminated. That s too many to ignore! However what we want to do is get through the two first stages as quickly as possible so we can spend a bit more time determining which of these horses should be bet on. WAGERING Now we ve marked our contenders and potentials we can move onto the third stage wagering. We know that we ve got 80% or more of the winners in our potentials and 52% in our contenders. We re going to spend a bit longer on this stage to determine which of these horses are going to be offering value in their odds, and therefore a long term profit. Read through this process a few times until you understand it, there is a bit of maths involved but it s not too complicated. Let s start by assuming our potential horses (half the field plus one) are going to win 88% of the time. In reality it s going to be closer to 80% but we want to increase it for mathematical reasons, it s nothing to worry about. If we assume these horses are going to win 88% of the time then that means our eliminations will be winning 12% of the time. ASSUMPTIONS Potentials win 88% of the time Eliminations win 12% of the time This is important because Profit Recall won t know about non runners in the race, and we want to account for them in these stages. 10
Let s start by looking at a race which has 10 runners and no non runners. We have 6 potential horses and 4 eliminations. Based on our assumptions we are assigning the 4 eliminations a 12% chance of winning and the 6 potentials an 88% chance of winning. If we were to split this evenly, that works out as each potential getting a 14.67% chance of winning and each elimination getting a 3% chance of winning. All good so far. But imagine the same race with one non runner that has come from our potential group. This would mean we have 5 potentials and 4 eliminations, however our 88% for potentials remains the same meaning that now each of the 5 potentials have a 17.60% chance of winning and the potentials have 82.40%. Go through this a few times until you get it. It s important to understand this, even though I m going to give you a handy spreadsheet that will do all the calculations for you! When you ve got that, let s move on Next we need to normalise our horses scores. If our potentials are getting 88% of the total scores then we normalise their scores so they have 88% of the total scores and the eliminations have 12. This can be adjusted if there are non runners as above. Once we ve normalised the scores we can calculate the probabilities and odds. And once you ve got your odds then you can make your bets. Profit Recall will automatically do these calculations for you, so you don t need to worry about doing the math. However I would suggest you read this through a few times so that you understand the calculations the software is doing for you. If you d like to know more then you can read this article: http://wp.me/p3gd1l 3QL You now have in your hands not only a powerful rating that will tell you at a glance the strongest horses in the race, but a powerful odds line that you can use to look for overlays and underlays or in any way that you like. To get started, please move on to the next chapter to see how to use the spreadsheet 11
USING THE PROFIT RECALL ODDS LINES When you open a race in Profit Recall you will see similar the details similar to the above. I want to start by looking at the two settings above each races scores and what they do. Both of these settings will change the odds lines that Profit Recall will create. PROBABILITY PWR The larger this number the bigger the difference in odds between the higher rated horses and the lower rated horses. If you make this number smaller you will see them come together. I like to use a setting of 2 as default. However if you re specialising in certain races then you should test this as you will be able to optimise it for the race conditions you are focusing on. PUBLIC ODDS SETTINGS This setting determines how much importance we give to the public odds. The default setting is 55%, which means that we value the public odds as 55% importance and our own as 45%. In other words we are giving slightly more weight to the public odds than our odds. If you are using early morning odds then you may want to reduce this, if you are using odds just before the off then you may want to increase it as we know those odds are highly accurate and we re looking for discrepancies. 12
PUBLIC ODDS (per horse) This column will always have 0 s in by default. You simply need to click into each field and enter the available odds for every runner in the race. NON RUNNERS Profit Recall can automatically take account of non runners in a race. To mark a horse as a non runner click on the horse s name. This will turn the row for that horse grey and remove it s scores from the calculation in the odds line. You can see how I have done this above by clicking on Order Of Service s name. In the other columns you will see Potentials, Contenders and Eliminations. We use an X to indicate which horses are in each category. The Our Odds column shows you what each horse s odds should be according to their Profit Recall scores, without any consideration of the available market odds. In the Odds Line column you can see the odds of each runner after taking into account the available odds. As you enter then odds for each horse in the Public Odds column you will see these figures adjust to take account of them. If you change the Public Odds setting above the race card then the odds in this column will adjust again depending on how much importance you are assigning to the public odds. 13
HIGHLIGHTED HORSES You ll see above that some of the horses have their Odds Line column highlighted green. These are the horses that are looking to offer backing value based on the odds line we ve created and the market odds. I ve entered very high odds into the Public Odds column for Terhaal and Pumaflor in order to show this happening. When you get started you can consider these highlighted horses as value back or each way bets (if their odds are higher than 4/1) because the odds available in the market are higher than what we would expect them to be. Don t forget that you can also look for value on lay bets as well. Personally I like to take these horses and have a quick look through their form to confirm my bets, and I never bet at over 39/1. Doing this significantly increases the profit and reduces the downswings as this manual process allows us to remove a large percentage of the losing bets. Once you ve got into the swing of doing this you can start to use the Profit Recall ratings and your odds lines to instantly reduce your selections in your current methods or to confirm whether your bets are offering value in their odds. 14