Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research
Total US - Key Statistics 12-Months Ending July 2012 % Change Hotels 52.3 k Room Supply 1.8 bn 0.4% Room Demand 1.1 bn 3.7% Occupancy 61.0% 3.4% ADR $104.31 4.1% RevPAR $63.62 7.7% Room Revenue $112.3 bn 8.0%
Total United States Monthly Room Supply Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to July 2012 150 145 140 CAGR 1.7% 135 130 125 120 115 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total United States Room Supply Percent Change January 2003 July 2012 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Total United States Monthly Room Demand Seasonally Adjusted 2003 to July 2012 95 90 CAGR 1.6% 85 80 75 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to July 2012 10 8 6 June 89 5.2% Supply % Change Demand % Change Feb 11 7.7% 4 2 Jan 89 4.5% 3.7% 0-2 -4-6 -8 Oct 91-0.9% Mar 02-4.6% Aug 06-0.2% Aug 09-7.0% 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 0.4%
Total United States Occupancy Percent Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to July 2012 70 65 CAGR -0.4% 60 55 50 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total United States Occupancy Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to July 2012 70 65 60 Dec 91 62.0 June 06 63.6 July 12 61.0 55 Aug 02 58.5 Jan 10 54.5 50 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Total United States Average Daily Rate Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to July 2012 110 100 Sept 08 107.71 July 12 104.31 90 June 01 85.73 80 70 60 50 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to July 2012 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12 Jan 92 0.1 June 91-3.4 Occ % Chg ADR % Chg Mar 02-6.7 Aug 02-4.5 Oct 06 7.5 Sept 09-9.6 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Apr 11 6.2 Jan 10-8.9
Total United States RevPAR Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to July 2012 70 CAGR 3.1% $66.98 Nov 2007 $64.21 Jul 2012 60 50 $54.86 Nov 2000 $55.48 Feb 2005 40 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change July YTD 2011 10 8 2011 2012 8.2 7.3 6 4 5.0 3.2 4.4 2.9 3.7 4.3 2 0 0.6 0.4-2 Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Total United States Occupancy and ADR Percent Change July YTD & Weekly through 8/11 8% Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg 6% 4% 2% 0% 2.9% 4.3% 3.0% 0.1% 3.6% 2.5% 4.0% 3.3% 4.8% 0.8% 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% -2% -4% -3.7% July YTD 7/7 7/14 7/21 7/28 8/4 8/11
Chain Scales Supply / Demand Percent Change July YTD 2011 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-0.5 3.0 2.8 0.1 1.6 4.2 3.6 6.9 Supply Demand -1.9-0.3 1.6-6 -8 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale -5.4 Midscale Economy
Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD 6 4 2 3.6 4.8 4.3 2.6 2.5 4.6 3.2 3.8 3.6 2.6 2.0 4.1 0-2 Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scales RevPAR / Room Revenue Percent Change July 2012 YTD 15 10.9 RevPAR Room Revenue 10 8.5 7.9 9.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.3 6.1 5.7 5 0.6 0 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scale Occupancy Percent July 2012 YTD 80 75 70 74.2 72.2 72.1 65 64.0 60 55 55.7 55.0 50 45 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scale Average Daily Rate ($) July 2012 YTD 300 250 269.54 200 150 100 50 153.60 116.34 96.97 74.25 52.02 0 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Millions Total United States Monthly Transient Demand 2007 Through July 2012 25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20 15 10 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Millions Total United States Monthly Group Demand 2007 Through July 2012 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Total United States US Transient vs. Group Monthly ADR ($) January 2007 July 2012 $200 $180 Transient Group $160 $140 $120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Total United States Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment Year to Date 2007- July 2012 $180 $170 $160 $176.18 $173.73 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $171.69 $164.13 $156.25 $150 $140 $148.93 $143.72 $141.61 $140.12 $138.64 $136.79 $135.94 $130 Transient Group NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Memphis MSA Room Supply / Demand Seasonally Adjusted January 2003 to July 2012 800000 600000 CAGR 0.7% Supply Demand 400000 200000 CAGR 1.7% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Memphis Occupancy Percent Seasonally Adjusted January 2003 to July 2012 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 59.2% 55.0 50.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Memphis Market Occupancy Percent July Year-To-Date 2003-2012 70 65 61.8 65.3 63.9 62.8 60 56.9 59.5 58.6 58.0 59.3 55 53.7 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
90 Memphis Room Rate July Year-To-Date 2003-2012 85 $84.24 80 $80.66 $79.65 $78.49 75 $75.19 $75.97 $75.87 70 65 $65.27 $66.94 $68.42 60 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
55 Memphis Market RevPAR July Year-To-Date 2003-2012 $51.54 50 $49.11 $49.33 $49.27 45 $42.25 $42.79 $44.05 $44.97 40 $37.13 $39.86 35 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: STR
Memphis Citywide Key Performance Indicators Percent Change July YTD 15 11.7 2010 2011 2012 10 7.9 9.6 5 3.5 2 2 2.2 5.9 3.5 3 2.1 0-0.2-0.1-5 -3.7-4.6-10 Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Memphis Tracts Supply/Demand Percent Change July 2012 YTD 15 12.5 10 7.5 Supply Demand 5 0 2.0 0.0 3.3 2.3-5 -3.7-3.6-5.5-0.8-2.6-1.6-10 Citywide Select CC* Downtown Airport & South East West * Select Center City Properties Subset of Downtown Tract
Memphis Tracts Occupancy Percent July 2011 and 2012 YTD 75 70 65 60 55 50 62.8 59.3 73 68 69.1 64.5 58.7 55.9 65.1 62 2011 2012 50.5 45 44.1 40 Citywide Select CC* Downtown Airport & South East West * Select Center City Properties Subset of Downtown Tract
Memphis Tracts Occupancy/ADR Percent Change July YTD 2012 15 10 7.5 7.1 Occupancy ADR 14.5 5 5.9 3.5 2.5 4.7 5 5.0 3.1 3.0 0-5 Citywide Select CC* Downtown Airport & South East -2.9 West * Select Center City Properties Subset of Downtown Tract
Memphis Tracts Average Daily Rate July 2012 YTD 140 120 128.44 117.78 100 80 60 78.49 65.49 71.57 57.89 40 Citywide Select CC* Downtown Airport & South East West * Select Center City Properties Subset of Downtown Tract
Memphis Price Segments Supply/Demand Percent Change July 2012 YTD 10 7.8 Supply Demand 5 0 2 0.0 0.6 3.6 0.1 3.0 2.6 2.6-0.5-5 -3.7 Citywide Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale -4.3 Midscale Economy
Memphis Price Segments Occupancy/ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD 10 Occupancy 7.9 ADR 7.2 5.9 5 3.5 2.2 3.1 4.1 2.9 2.0 1.4 3.1 2.7 0 Citywide Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Select Cities Supply/Demand Percent Change July 2012 YTD 10 9.4 7.5 5 0 2.0 1.3 5.0 0.2 0.4 2.2 4.9-5 -3.7 Supply Demand -10 Memphis Nashville St. Louis Little Rock New Orleans
Select Cities Occupancy Percent July 2012 YTD 75 70 67.4 69.7 65 60 62.8 61.9 58.6 55 50 45 Memphis Nashville St. Louis Little Rock New Orleans
Select Cities Occupancy/ADR Percent Change July 2012 YTD 15 Occupancy ADR 10 8.0 9.3 5 5.9 3.5 4.4 4.7 3.9 1.7 1.8 2.5 0 Memphis Nashville St. Louis Little Rock New Orleans
Select Cities Average Daily Rate July 2012 YTD 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 138.51 96.92 85.71 78.49 75.40 Memphis Nashville St. Louis Little Rock New Orleans
Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 110 100 Actual CPI Adj 90 80 70 60 50 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
CPI vs. ADR 1988-2011 Annual % Chg 10 5 0-5 ADR CPI -10 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 60 55 1987: $52.32 2011: $51.79 50 45 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Real Rate Growth 1988-2011 Annual % Chg 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Luxury Scale Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 300 Actual CPI Adj 250 200 150 100 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Luxury Scale Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 175 150 125 100 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Upper Upscale Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 175 Actual CPI Adj 155 135 115 95 75 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Upper Upscale Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Upscale Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 130 Actual CPI Adj 110 90 70 50 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Upscale Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 70 65 60 55 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Upper Midscale Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 100 90 Actual CPI Adj 80 70 60 50 40 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Upper Midscale Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 55 50 45 40 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Midscale Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 90 Actual CPI Adj 80 70 60 50 40 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Midscale Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 45 43 41 39 37 35 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economy Scale Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 70 Actual CPI Adj 60 50 40 30 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economy Scale Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 35 33 31 29 27 25 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Independent Scale Annual ADR Grown by CPI Change vs. Actual 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 115 105 Actual CPI Adj 95 85 75 65 55 45 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Independent Scale Real ADR (Adjusted for Inflation) 1987-2011 Annual, CPI Indexed to 1987 60 55 50 45 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Lodging Industry Projections As of August 1, 2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, STR ) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.
Total United States Active Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year Phase July 2012 July 2011 Difference % Change In Construction 61,490 54,825 6,665 12.2% Planned Pipeline 239,464 268,245-28,781-10.7% Active Pipeline 300,954 323,070-22,116-6.8% Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases
US Hotel Demand Growth vs. GDP Growth Quarterly Rooms Sold % Chg and GDP % Chg through 2012 Q2 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0 GDP % Chg Demand % Chg -10.0 1989 Q1 1992 Q1 1995 Q1 1998 Q1 2001 Q1 2004 Q1 2007 Q1 2010 Q1 Note: Percentage change is current quarter vs. same quarter last year (GDP in 2005 dollars) Source: BEA
Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 1.1% Demand 2.0% 1.8% Occupancy 1.5% 0.7% ADR 4.0% 4.6% RevPAR 5.5% 5.4%
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 2.6% 5.1% 7.9% Upper Upscale 1.5% 4.2% 5.7% Upscale 2.3% 4.6% 7.1% Upper Midscale 1.4% 4.0% 5.5% Midscale 2.8% 1.4% 4.3% Economy 1.4% 3.1% 4.5% Independent 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% Total United States 1.5% 4.0% 5.5%
GOP % Total United States Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability Years 2001 2011 160 140 120 100 80 60 Revenue Profit GOP% 103.5 102.6 105.3 113.7 37.1 35.7 35.0 36.6 Total Revenue and Profit in Billions 122.7 38.8 133.4 139.4 140.6 41.3 41.3 38.2 127.2 127.7 137.5 34.0 35.3 36.1 100 80 60 40 40 20 16.2 14.2 12.8 16.7 22.6 26.6 28.0 25.8 16.0 18.0 21.6 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0