US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015.
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. The January Purchasing Manager s Index shows the manufacturing sector of the US economy contracted four consecutive months.
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. The January Purchasing Manager s Index shows the manufacturing sector of the US economy contracted four consecutive months. The US unemployment rate was 9.61% in 2010. The rate fell to 4.9% in February 2016. However, there are a record 94 million workers not in the labor force. The participation rate is stuck at a near 38-year low of 62.7%.
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. The Purchasing Manager s Index shows the manufacturing sector of the US economy contracted four consecutive months. The US unemployment rate was 9.61% in 2010. The rate fell to 4.9% in January 2016. However, there are a record 94 million workers not in the labor force. The participation rate is stuck at a near 38-year low of 62.7%. In 4Q 2015, personal consumption expenditures were $12,429B, up each quarter in 2015.
2,000 1,900 New Home Construction Starts, Completed Units, and Building Permits 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 Total housing starts for 2015 (unadjusted) were up 10.8% over 2014. Starts Completions Building Permits Thousand Units 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Source: US Census Bureau 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Dec- 14 Jan- 15 Feb- 15 Mar- 15 Apr- 15 May- 15 Graph: HMR Jun- 15 Jul- 15 Aug- 15 Sep- 15 Oct- 15 Nov- 15 Dec- 15
800 New Single-Family Home Construction 775 750 725 700 675 Units Started Units Completed Building Permits Thousand Units 650 625 600 575 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Source: US Census Bureau Graph: HMR
US Single-Family Housing Starts and Completions 900 800 In January 2014, completions were 5.5% above starts. Thousand (SAAR) 700 600 In January 2016, completions were 5.2% below starts. 500 Units Started 400 Units Completed 300 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Source: US Census Bureau Graph: HMR Executive
60.0% Average Percentage of New Home Sales Priced at $300,000 or More 50.0% Source: US Census Bureau Graph: Hardwood Market Report 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$250,000 Chart Title Private Expenditures on US Residential Construction Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 Million US Dollars $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 Single-family Multi-family $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $0 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Repair and Remodeling Source: US Census Bureau Graph: HMR
2016 Hardwood Market Report Estimates of Consumption of US Hardwoods 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Change 2014 % Change 2007 Pallets 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.26 3.27 3.643 3.685 3.589-2.6% -0.3% Furniture 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.35 0.29 0.30 0.427 0.439 0.471 7.3% -52.9% Exports 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.07 1.2 1.32 1.462 1.653 1.527-7.6% 27.3% Millwork 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.43 0.24 0.26 0.387 0.394 0.406 3.1% -59.4% Cabinets 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.34 0.36 0.392 0.407 0.392-3.7% -69.9% Flooring 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.59 0.51 0.55 0.753 0.712 0.664-6.7% -48.9% Railway Ties 0.92 0.94 0.89 0.89 0.98 1.04 1.114 1.032 1.08 4.7% 17.8% Board Road/Mat Timbers N/A 0.286 0.175 0.198 0.243 0.267 0.424 0.413 0.318-23.0% N/A Total Estimated Consumption 10.32 9.03 6.77 7.13 7.06 7.37 8.60 8.735 8.447-3.3% -18.1%
800 Consumtion of Hardwood Lumber by Grade Markets 700 2014 2015 Million Board Feet 600 500 Source: Private, Government, and HMR Graph: Hardwood Market Report 400 300 200 Furniture Moulding/Millwork Cabinets Flooring
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Furniture 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.35 0.29 0.30 0.43 0.44 0.47 1.2 2016 Hardwood Market Report 1.0 Billion Board Feet 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Millwork 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.43 0.24 0.26 0.39 0.39 0.40 1.0 2016 Hardwood Market Report 0.9 0.8 2007 to 2015-59.9% 2014 to 2015 + 1.8% Billion Board Feet 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cabinets 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.34 0.36 0.392 0.407 0.389 2015 0.389 2016 Hardwood Market Report 2014 0.407 2013 0.392 Billion Board Feet 2012 2011 2010 0.36 0.34 0.4 2009 0.7 2008 1.2 2007 1.3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Flooring 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.59 0.51 0.55 0.75 0.71 0.66 1.4 2016 Hardwood Market Report Billion Board Feet 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 2007 to 2015-48.9% 2014 to 2015-6.7% 0.2 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35,000 US Manufacturers' Shipments of Solid Wood Flooring (Thousand Square Feet) 25 30,000 20 25,000 Volume 20,000 15,000 Volume Working Days 15 10 Working Days 10,000 Shipments were down 7.2% in 2015 from 2014 and 4.3% in January 2016 from January 2015. 5 5,000 2016 Hardwood Market Report 0 0
World Imports of Hardwood Flooring to the US Million Square Feet 250 200 150 100 50 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Graph: Hardwood Market Report Total imports declined 84.9% from 2006 to 2015 but were up 37.7% from 2014 to 31.4 million square feet. From 2006 to 2015, shipments: China - 93.2% Malaysia + 60.7% Indonesia - 38.1% Canada - 75.6% Mexico - 74.5% Vietnam - +2,799% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
900,000,000 US Market Consumption of Hardwood Flooring Total Imports 800,000,000 US Mfgs Shipments to the Domestic Marketplace 700,000,000 Square Feet 600,000,000 500,000,000 Imports increased 37.7% in 2015 from 2014 and 86.0% from 2013. 400,000,000 300,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: USDA FAS and Hardwood Market Report Graph: Hardwood Market Report
14 12 Hardwood Lumber Consumption by Major US Markets 2016 Hardwood Market Report Grade Lumber Markets 10 59.6% Industrial Markets Billion Board Feet 8 6 4 40.4% 12.9B' 41.0% 59.0% 8.45B' 2 0 1999 2015
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Pallets 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.26 3.27 3.64 3.69 3.59 3.8 3.6 2016 Hardwood Market Report Billion Board Feet 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Railway 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ties 0.92 0.94 0.89 0.89 0.98 1.04 1.11 1.03 1.08 1.10 2007 to 2015 +17.8% 2014 to 2015 + 4.7% 1.00 Billion Board Feet 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 Source: Railway Tie Association Graph: Hardwood Market Report 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Board Road/Mat 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Timbers N/A 0.29 0.18 0.20 0.24 0.27 0.42 0.41 0.23 0.45 0.40 2016 Hardwood Market Report 0.35 Billion Board Feet 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.07 1.2 1.32 1.462 1.653 1.527 1.7 2007 to 2015 +27.3% 2014 to 2015-7.6% 1.5 Billion Board Feet 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 Source: USDA FAS Graph: Hardwood Market Report 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percentage of Total US Hardwood Lumber Exports (Volume) 50% 45% 40% 35% European Union-27 Canada China Vietnam Mexico 30% 25% 20% Source: USDA FAS Graph: Hardwood Market Report 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
800 US Exports of Hardwood Lumber to China 700 China's Growing Middle and Upper Classes Consuming US Hardwoods 600 Million Board Feet 500 400 300 200 1999-2006 US Furniture Manufacturing Shift to China and US Housing Boom 1999-2006 + 759.5% 2006-2009 US Housing Bust and Worldwide Economic Turmoil 2009-2015 + 242.1% 100 Source: USDA FAS Graph: HMR Executive 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: USDA FAS Graph: HMR Executive
Export Markets Currency Valuation Global Demand Availability of other Species Shift from Lumber to Logs
Estimated Annual Rates of Sawmill Production for Eastern US Hardwoods 10,000 24 9,000 22 Million Bd. Ft. 8,000 7,000 2014 = 8.315B Bd. Ft. 20 18 Working Days per Month 6,000 2015 = 8.276B Bd. Ft. Production Working Days 16 5,000 14 2016 Hardwood Market Report 4,000 12 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16
Eastern US Hardwood Production 13,000 12,000 Production Peaked in 1999 at an est. 12,619,000,000 board feet 2016 Hardwood Market Report 11,000 Million Board Feet 10,000 9,000 8,000 1975 est. 7,157,500,000 board feet 2015 production was 8,275,975,600. 7,000 6,000 1960 est. 7,672,500,000 board feet Estimated 56 year average was 9,406,024,000 board feet. 5,000 Graph: Hardwood Market Report Sources: US Census Bureau, US Forest Service, and Hardwood Market Report 4,000
12 Consumption of Hardwood Lumber by Major US Market Sectors and Total Supply of Hardwood Lumber 11 10 Consumption Total Supply from All Sources Billion Board Feet 9 8 7 6 5 Graph: HMR Executive Sources: Data Collected from a Variety of Industry, Government, and Academic Sources 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$1,800 Appalachian Kiln Dried 4/4 #1C Red Oak $1,605/M $1,600 $1,400 Price per 1,000 Bd. Ft. $1,200 $1,000 $800 $880/M $900/M 2016 Hardwood Market Report $600
Thank You Hardwood Market Report David Caldwell Email: david@hmr.com P.O. Box 2633 Memphis, Tennessee 38088 USA Voice: (901) 767-9126 ~ Fax: (901)767-7534