Changes of Ecosystem & Societies on the Mongolia Plateau: Coupled Regulations of Landuse and Changing Climate Jiquan Chen, Ranjeet John, Nan Lu, Burkhard Wilske, Changliang Shao, Linhao Li, Lin Zhen, Shiqiang Wan, and others
The NEESPI Region MG IM Groissman et al, 2009
Why focus research on Mongolia Plateau? http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/iotd/view.php?id=36699
Ground truth field campaign on MODIS land cover in Inner Mongolia: June/July, 2006 & 2007 2006 2007 0 125 250 500 750 Km
Typical grassland in Dongwu Degraded grassland in Xilinhot Stipa krylovii grassland in Duolun Cropland in Duolun
Direct measurements of vegetation and soil properties Direct measurements of surface reflectance
Comparison of trend in growing season length (GSL among three biomes 210 F G D 200 y = 0.281x - 367.5 R² = 0.367 Number of days 190 180 170 y = 0.294x - 418.4 R² = 0.391 160 150 y = 0.195x - 219.2 R² = 0.227 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Regional trend of warm nights and cold nights 80 70 warmnights coldnights Number of days 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 y = 0.358x + 26.12 R² = 0.471 y = -0.638x + 56.09 R² = 0.511 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1987 1992 1997 2002
LULC Forest shrubland savanna Grasslands Permanent Wetlands Croplands Urban and Built-Up Natural Vegetation Mosaic Snow and Ice Barren Water Bodies AVHRR-Derived IGBP 1992 N I Desert biome II Grassland biome III Forest biome 0 125 250 500 750 Km
MODIS-Derived IGBP 2004 N I Desert biome II Grassland biome III Forest biome 0 125 250 500 750 Km
The Coupling Effects N Land Use Change and Hotspots in Inner Mongolia 3 2 1 0 125 250 500 750 Km
Repeated ANOVA tests: Coupled Effects of Climate and Landuse on GPP & ET (1 Gross Primary Production (GPP SSE % Type 2.8924 64.3 2.4 Year 1.20423 26.8 Year*type 0.40085 8.9 total 4.49748 (2 Evapotranspiration (ET SSE % Type 11425.4 83.6 5.77 Year 1981.1 14.5 Year*type 257.1 1.9 total 13663.6
Moving Forward: Mongolia Plateau Two contrasting counties (IM & MG Adaptation as the central focus Natural and Human System as one Unit
Interactive Changes of Ecosystems and Societies on the Mongolian Plateau: Coupled Regulations from Land Use and Changing Climate US Institutions: Jiquan Chen (Univ of Toledo; Steve McNulty & Ge Sun (SGCP-USDA Chinese Inst.: Lin Zhen & Xiangzheng Deng (IGSNRR-CAS; Jian Ni, Ke Guo & Linghao Li (IBCAS-CAS Mongolian Inst.: Ochirbat Batkhishig & Dechingungaa Dorjgotov (IG, Mongolian Academy of Sciences Project Supporting Webpage: http://research.eeescience.utoledo.edu/lees/nasa06/chn/ Land Use & Change Climate Change
Changes in three socioeconomic variables, temperature, and precipitation. While similar patterns between IM and MG exist, MG had significantly lower magnitudes of all three variables. 60 48 36 24 12 0 4 3 2 GDP per km^2, Y2 Population Density, Y1 Livestock Density (#/km^2, Y1 (a Inner Mongolia 600 480 360 240 120 0 18 Population Density, Y1 GDP per km^2, Y1 Livestock Density (#/km^2, Y2 16 (b Mongolia 14 1 12 0 10 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Livestock Density (# per km 2 48 38 28 18 8-1 50 40 30 20 10 IM MG Trend 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Annual Temperature (C 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Annual Precipitation (mm
Changes in climate (temperature, precipitation from 12 selected stations and land use in IM and MG in recent decades. Annual Temperature (C (a Inner Mongolia 8 6 4 Forest Grassland Desert 2 800 6 (b Mongolia 3 0-3 Desert S. Grassland N. Grassland 500 Annual Precip (mm 600 400 200 400 300 200 100 0 1955 1955 1960 1960 1965 1965 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1991 1991 1996 1996 2001 2001 0 1940 1940 1945 1945 1950 1950 1955 1955 1960 1960 1965 1965 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000
Land Use Change c Innter Mongolia 50 1992 2004 40 30 20 10 0 evergreen needleleaf forest evergreen broadleaf forest deciduous needleleaf forest deciduous broadleaf forest mixed forests closed shrublands open shrublands woody savannas savannas grasslands permanent wetlands croplands barren or sparsely vegetated urban and built-up cropland/natural vegetation mosaic permanent snow and ice water 50 d Mongolia 1992 40 30 20 10 2004 0 evergreen needleleaf forest evergreen broadleaf forest deciduous needleleaf forest deciduous broadleaf forest mixed forests closed shrublands open shrublands woody savannas savannas grasslands permanent wetlands croplands urban and built-up cropland/natural vegetation mosaic permanent snow and ice barren or sparsely vegetated water
Objective To examine and model the interactive changes of NS and HS in the time and space of IM and MG under similar climate but different land-use conditions.
Table 1. Selected measures of the HS and NS as well as the interactions and feedbacks between the elements of the HS and NS Measure IM MG Human System (HS Population (POP(2006 23924000 2533100 Population Density (POPD (No. km -2 20.2 1.7 Livestock (LS (heads, 2006 58332000 28027900 GDP (billion $ 70.256 6.08 GDP per capital ($ 2936 2401 Livestock per person 2.438 11.065 Natural System (NS Land Area (km 2 1183000 1564116 (km 2 225533 (10.87 (% (19.06 Grassland (km 2 548441 (44.09 (% (46.36 Desert (km 2 372478 (44.98 (% (31.49 Temperature Increase ( T ( o C.decade -1 0.4329 0.2935 GPP (Kg C.m 2 (STD 0.919 (0.298 0.707 (0.328 Total GPP (Pg C.year -1 (2006 1.0872 1.1052 Water Resource (WR, m 3.m -2 0.01 0.025 GPP:WR (Mg C.m -3 91.90 28.26 Interactions (NS ~ HS GPP:Pop (Mg C.Person -1 45.44 436.29 GDP:GPP LS:POP (No.Person -1 2.438 11.065 WR:Pop (m 3.person -1 494.5 15436.8 GPP:LS 18.64 39.43 GDP:GPP ($.Mg C -1 64.62 5.50 GDP:WR ($.m -3 5.94 0.16
Present situation of population migration in Mongolia The internal migration where the flow is oriented toward to Ulaanbaatar and the central region of MG has been a trend. Nearly 70% of the migrants is concentrated in such cities area as Ulaanbaatar, Darkhan, Orkhon and Selenge aimags or along the general roads and railway lines. Since 1990, 320 thousand have migrated from rural areas to Ulaanbaatar city and 34 thousands from cities to the countryside (J. Oyungerel, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, 2008.
Conceptual framework
Uliastay Ulaanbaatar Mongolia N EVI High :1 Low : 0 Inner Mongolia Baotou Huhehaote Veg/Soil plots 0 125 250 500 750 Km Intensive flux towers Landsat