ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS FOR THE 2030 AGENDA IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Hongpeng Liu Director, Energy Division, UNESCAP
Objectives and progress of Energy Transition Asia-Pacific policy-makers face three interlinked challenges Matching a growing energy demand with adequate supply; Achieving the targets of SDG7 Reduction of the GHG emissions through NDCs under Paris Agreement SDG7 2030 targets: Energy Access, Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency Mixed progress in Asia-Pacific region SDG7 has important linkages with other development goals Energy transition is a long-term effort aligned with SDG7 & the low carbon development of the energy sector, provide universal access and boost renewable energy and energy efficiency
Mtoe (Total Primary Energy Supply) Energy demand outlook for Asia and the Pacific No up to date outlooks available for Asia-Pacific national/regional level Depending on policy mix, the demand outlook may differ by 25% Providing universal energy access will not put endanger achievement of other targets adding only 0.23 % to global energy demand Comparison of different outlooks for Asia and the Pacific 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2000 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 Historic Total Primary Energy Supply AP WEO17 Current Policies AP ADB13 Business-as-usual AP McKinsey Scenario AP WEO17 New Policies AP WEO17 Sustainable Development AP ADB13 Alternative Policies Source: ESCAP compilation from IEA (2017a), ADB (2013) and McKinsey (2017). Historic TPES = actual observed values
Universal electricity access in Asia-Pacific - A small but significant gap remains Existing/planned policies set the region on track for 99% electrification by 2030 However, this still leaves a gap with SDG7-93 million people without electricity access This projection does not take into account the quality of access 99% 100% Source: IEA (2017) 93% 99% 98% 99% ENEA NCA PACIFIC SSWA SEA AP Source: ESCAP analysis Access to electricity across sub-regions in the current policy scenario by 2030 Investment of between $0.33 billion and $1.7 billion annually is needed to achieve the SDG7 target for universal access to electricity by 2030
2000 2005 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Proportion of population with access to clean cooking (%) Access to clean cooking systems in Asia-Pacific Decisive action is required without further delay Estimates are that access to clean cooking will reach 68% by 2030 in the absence of additional policy measures in ESCAP member States This leaves 1.6 billion people that will continue to rely on traditional biomass for cooking a large gap with the SDG7 target of universal access Pathways to universal access to clean cooking by 2030 (global and Asia-Pacific) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 Global outlook SDG scenario Current policy scenario 100 72 68 Source: ESCAP analysis Determined action is required to bring the target on clean cooking systems back on track which requires exploring locally appropriate solutions
Share of RE in TFEC (%) Renewable energy in Asia-Pacific: Achievements to come but more efforts are needed Under the current policies scenario, the share of RE (including traditional biomass) will decline by 2030 With existing and planned policies, the region will reach 14% of modern RE in the energy mix up from 7% now For the SDG7 scenario, a 22% modern RE share is required To achieve current NDC commitments the share of modern RE would have to grow to 35% Growth in the share of modern renewables: Three different pathways to 2030 35 30 25 20 15 10-5 Source: ESCAP analysis 2014 share 6.8% NDC scenario 35% SDG scenario 22% Current policy scenario 14% 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 NDC scenario SDG scenario CP scenario Historical Achieving the SDG7 target means speeding up the deployment of modern renewable energy, across the region
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Energy intensity (MJ/$) TPES (Mtoe) and GDP (USD billion) Energy intensity in Asia and the Pacific The enabler of the energy transition requires more attention Under the current policies scenario, energy intensity reaches 3.97 MJ/$ in 2030 This falls short of doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030 which requires reaching 2.52 MJ/$ Faster progress is possible Good understanding of the structure of the local energy system is needed to determine priority areas of intervention Energy intensity under the current policies scenario is close to the SDG7 target in 2030 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Source: ESCAP analysis 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 GDP Energy Intensity-CPS Energy Intensity-SDG TPES Energy efficiency needs decisive action as a key element of the energy transition. 0
Connectivity as an effective and efficient accelerator for Sustainable Development Goal 7 Energy connectivity to enhance energy security meet projected energy demand address gaps in energy access, and create a decarbonized energy system regional economic cooperation and integration Energy connectivity includes trade and exchange of energy in multiple forms power sector presents the greatest opportunities for harnessing the benefits of connectivity Regional roadmap needed to facilitate cross-border electricity connectivity
Key Policy recommendations for the energy transition Alignment of national energy policy with the SDG7 and NDCs needed Development of an energy transition roadmap Develop business and technology models for universal access to energy Levelling the playing field for renewable energy Accelerating renewable energy growth through regional energy connectivity Leveraging the synergies between renewable energy and energy efficiency Develop a regional roadmap on power grid connectivity The energy transition requires a change the paradigm of designing and managing energy systems towards a holistic approach aligned with SDG7 and the NDCs