TMALL 0141 Presentation v 1.0 2018-03-19 How close to zero car fatalities can we get? Prepared by: Matteo Rizzi Presented by: Anders Lie Gordon Moore in 1965 said; "Change will never be this slow again" The Vision Zero Swedish parliament (1997) Long term target is that no one should be killed or receive long term disability Volvo Cars Vision 2020 (2007) Our vision is that by 2020 no-one should be killed or seriously injured in a new Volvo car The Vision Zero European Commission (2011) By 2050, move close to zero fatalities in road transport. In line with this goal, the EU aims at halving road casualties by 2020. Make sure that the EU is a world leader in safety and security of transport in all modes of transport. United Nations (2015) 2 2018-03-19 1
Vision Zero Zero Fatalities (At least not only) Vision Zero = 5 dimensions (or more?) 1. Ethical platform 2. Vision for many stakeholders 3. Driving force for change 4. Shared responsibility 5. Safety philosophy We are blind to speed, not to height 3 2018-03-19 Vision Zero Safety Philosophy 1. Severe injuries not crashes 2. Humans make errors, mistakes and misjudgements 3. Humans have a biomechanical tolerance 4. Energy control is key 5. Eliminations is the target (backcasting) We are blind to speed, not to height 4 2018-03-19 2
Vision Zero model for safe traffic The vehicle: High NCAP score ESC The vehicle supports the driver to: Use the seat belt Comply with speed limits Not drive when impaired 5 Crashworthiness - fatality risk for car occupants 6 3
Effects of high Euro NCAP score (study 2010) Euro NCAP occupant protection Points/stars (pre 2009 style) Relative risk All injuries Severe and fatal injuries Almost 70% fatality risk reduction Fatal injuries 7 Effects of ESC, two Swedish studies Photo. Arnold Odermatt Study 2005 Study 2011 97,5% 8 4
The effect of Seat Belt Reminders Road side observations, Europe Fatal crashes, Sweden Increase of seat belt use 82,2 +/- 8,6% 9 The effect of Lane Departure Warning Without LDW With LDW 68% Head-on and single Rear-end 32% -53% (70-120 km/h no snow or ice) 10 5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2018-03-19 Proportion of car mileage driven on Swedish roads with ESC, SBR and AEB city 2000-2025 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SBR ESC AEB city prediction SBR prediction ESC prediction AEB city 11 Fatalities in vehicles (Sweden) 12 6
Clear results in EU It is estimated that 2/3 of the reduction in road fatalities comes from replacement of the car fleet Better results than reduction of heart attacks during the same period 13 Joint effort to define boundary conditions 14 7
Relative fatal and serious injury-ratio for car occupants on different road types 100% 90% 80% 70% 0,71 60% 0,54 50% 40% 30% 0,39 0,32 0,27 0,24 20% 10% 0% 2 carriageways körfält - 100 100 km/h 2 carriageways körfält - 90 90 km/h 22 carriageways körfält - 80 Motorväg highway - 120 km/h 80 med km/hatk 120 km/h km/h and speed cameras 2+1-väg road - 110 110 km/h 2+1-väg road - 100 100 km/h km/h Motorväg highway - 110 110 km/h 15 How close to zero car fatalities can we get with Cars MY or later have a 5 stars (today s system) Euro NCAP rating, standard AEB and AES (autonomous emergency steering) Median barriers in speed areas > 80 km/h and daily traffic > 4000 vehicles Roundabouts in urban intersections Safe road sides on speed areas > 80 km/h 16 8
Prevision of implementation of safety technologies on passenger cars safety technology target population standard from MY normal implementation rate standard from MY fast implementation rate ESC Loss-of-control crashes with over-steering. Violations excluded 2008 2008 SBR Unrestrained occupants that would have survived with seat belt. Violations excluded 2009 2009 AEB city - FCW Rear-end up to 50 km/h. Violations excluded 2020 2020 AEB interurban including large animals AEB VRU - FCW Rear end and wild life crashes, over 70 km/h. Violations excluded Pedestrians and cyclists hit by car fronts, excluding reversing crashes and cases with poor sight distance. Violations excluded 2025 2025 AEB rear VRU Reversing crashes involving VRU. Violations excluded 2025 AEB crossing LDW - LKA AES - Autonomous Emergency Steering Crashes at intersections, where the crash opponent entered the intersection. Violations excluded Lane departure on dry or wet roads with speed limit > 60 km/h and visible road markings. Violations excluded Crashes avoidable by swerving 1 meter, where possible. Violations excluded 2025 2025 2025 17 Prognosis built on real-life fatal crashes (Sweden performs in-depth analysis of all fatal crashes since 1998) tyre tracks 18 9
2003 2005 2007 2003 2005 2007 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2013 2013 2015 2015 2017 2017 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2023 2025 2025 2027 2023 2025 2027 2029 2029 2031 2031 2033 2035 2037 2033 2035 2037 2039 2039 2040 2040 2041 2041 2043 2045 2047 2043 2045 2047 2049 2049 2050 2050 2051 2051 2053 2055 2057 2053 2055 2057 2059 2059 2060 2060 2061 2061 2018-03-19 Number of killed car occupants in Sweden 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 19 Number of killed car occupants in Sweden 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 73 2050 20 What do these crashes look like? 16 20 10
2014-2016 2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2026 2028 2032 2034 2035 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2045 2046 2003 2008 2048 2013 2050 2050 2052 2020 2025 2054 2055 2056 2035 2040 2058 2045 2060 2060 2050 2055 2060 2018-03-19 Which fatal crashes are left in 2060? 400 300 6 level crossings (5 w/o barriers) 5 extreme violations 200 100 0 16 3 head-on crashes with HGV, small overlap 2 disease-related cases 21 5 years earlier implementation of car safety technologies (2025 instead of ) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 approx. 150 extra lives saved implementering Implementation Implementation implementering 2025 2025 22 11
2014-2016 2015 2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2026 2028 2032 2034 2035 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2045 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2055 2056 2058 2060 2060 2018-03-19 scrapping program for 15 years old cars (or older) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 approx. 380 extra lives saved implementering Implementation Scrapping utskrotning program 23 Summary How close to zero car fatalities can we get? Very close, but we need the road infrastructure too With full implementation of current safety strategies for a safe road transport system we can get close to zero car fatalities by 2050 We can get there even faster with (for instance) car scrapping programs Gordon Moore in 1965 said; "Change will never be this slow again" 24 12
Teaser - how close to Zero can Volvo cars get? Analysis of fatal crashes involving modern Volvo cars MY 2010 or later 16 killed car occupants under normal driving conditions since 2010 2 fatalities/year Models: V70 (11), V60 (4), V40 (1) ESC, SBR and most of them with AEB city None of them with LKA/LDW, AEB interurban, 11 head-on collisions, 1 single-vehicle, 3 rear-end with HGV, 1 train 14 fatalities could have addressed by known vehicle safety technologies 25 Children killed in traffic 1956-2016 26 13
Children killed in cars 2003-2016 14 13 7 9 9 3 2 4 7 3 5 2 2 1 1 27 Thank you! Swedish Transport Administration matteo.rizzi@trafikverket.se anders.lie@trafikverket.se 28 14