A Look Ahead At 2014 And Lessons From 2013 Greater OKC Chamber One of the nation s largest chambers! More than 5,000 Members American Chamber of Commerce Executives Best of Show in 2012 Consistently rated Top 10 Chamber CREC February 20, 2014
GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY ECONOMIC FORECAST & DATA TOOLS
700 OKC MSA Nonfarm and Private Employment 3% 600 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2% MSA Employment, Thousands 500 400 300 200 100 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Annual Percent Change 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent Change, YOY OKC Nonfarm OKC Private -4%
25 OKC MSA Mining Employment 25% 21.0 20% Mining Employment, Thousands 20 15 10 5 6.7 4.1% 2.2% 0.5% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Anuual Percent Change -15% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-20% Percent Change, YOY OKC Mining Employment
Manufacturing Employment, Thousands 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 OKC MSA Manufacturing Employment 2.5% 2.6% 1.8% - 4.6% - 12.1% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Annual Percent Change Percent Change, YOY OKC Manufacturing Employment
90 OKC MSA Professional and Business Employment 6.0% PBS Employment, Thousands 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% - 2.0% - 4.0% - 6.0% - 8.0% Annual Percent Change Percent Change, YOY OKC Professional and Business Employment
OKC MSA Trade, Transport, & Utilities Employment 120 4.5% 5% OKC TTU Employment, Thousands 115 110 105 100 95 90 3.6% 3.4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Annual Percent Change 85 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-4% Percent Change, YOY OKC Trade, Transport & Utilties
60,000 OKC MSA Per Capita Personal Income 15% Per Capita Personal Income ($) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 4.6% 4.0% 10% 5% 0% -5% Annual Growth, % 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-10% Annual Growth OKC Per Capita Personal Income
1,600,000 OKC MSA Population 5% 1,400,000 4% MSA Population 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 1.7% 1.6% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Annual Growth, % 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014-2% Annual Growth OKC MSA Population
900 Non- Farm Employment: OKC & Austin 10% 800 8% NF Employment, Thousands 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 OKC + 28,200 Austin + 230,200 6% 4% 2% 0% - 2% - 4% 0 Jan-91 Sep-91 May-92 Jan-93 Sep-93 May-94 Jan-95 Sep-95 May-96 Jan-97 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11-6% OKC YOY % Change AUS YOY % Change OKC NF EMP AUS NF EMP
OESC Employer Locator 193,000 business records with contact info for Oklahoma companies
OKCEDIS.com
OKC Local Business Intelligence Tool www.greateroklahomacity.com/ OKCLBI Compare your business to the compe??on By industry, city, county, metro, state and na?on
Research Tools 2014 Economic Forecast available at: www.greateroklahomacity.com/forecast OESC Employer Locator (business list) hup://www.oesc.state.ok.us/lmi/employerlocator/ Commercial Property Locator www.okcedis.com Local Business Intelligence Tool www.greateroklahomacity.com/okclbi
GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY 2013 RESULTS AND PIPELINE ACTIVITY
Forward OKC IV Results 2013 Actuals 2013 Goals Campaign Actuals 5- Year Goals** Jobs 6,561 4,000 5,000 15,110 20,000 25,000 Average Salary*** $43,533 $45,453 - - $47,430 $54,736 $45,453 - $47,430 Capital Investment $501,709,800 $180M - $200M $1,297,219,330 $900M - $1Billion Local Tax Revenue* $13,058,477 $10M - $11M $33,736,788 $50M - $55M
January 2014 Project Pipeline 13,625 jobs $399 million payroll 28 Ac?ve Projects $555 million capital investment 3.6 million Sq. Ft. *Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.
Behind the Pipeline Numbers Of 28 Projects. 18 seeking less than 500 jobs, 2 more than 1,000 jobs Industry/Func^on: Avia^on 3 Call/Shared Services 2 Distribu^on 2 Manufacturing 13 Office 2 Other 1 Six provided specific acreage needs, 4-70 acres 19 provided square footage at this stage, 5K to 1 mm Eight require less than 100K
2013 Projects 40 35 30 Total Projetcs 25 20 15 10
2013 Jobs 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 *Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.
2013 Total Annual Payroll $450,000,000 $400,000,000 $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 *Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.
2013 Project Investments $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $800,000,000 $600,000,000 $400,000,000 $200,000,000 $0 *Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.
2013 Total Sq. Footage 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 *Note: Not all projects provide the key pieces of information listed above.
Retail Efforts: Results and Impacts More than 40 site visits in OKC in 2013 OKC con^nues to be on the radar of retailers recognizing OKC s poten^al Moving from Top of Low Priority List to Top of List for 2014-15. Snapshot of Announcements in 2013 (All First Oklahoma Loca^ons) Nordstrom Rack Top Golf Von Maur Microsok Development and Redevelopment Opportuni^es Underway
Key Opportunity: Underserved Markets Why focus on these areas? Tradi^onal market data and analysis may be inaccurate or misrepresent the economic poten^al and purchasing power Seeking to establish a healthier retail presence through public- private partnerships in underes^mated, primarily urban inner city markets Bring OKC prosperity to more por^ons of the City over ^me
Highligh^ng Underserved Markets Held Program on Poten^al of Underserved Markets Partnered with Interna^onal Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), City of OKC, Alliance for Economic Development, Urban Land Ins^tute (ULI) & Black Chamber Follow- up Underway with key interest groups Community (residents, community based organiza^ons) Government (elected officials and professional staff) Developers Retailers Working with exis^ng retailer, Alliance and City on a site in NE OKC to increase store footprint size and add further development Con^nue dialogue with retailers and developers about various underserved sites in OKC
Project Golden Fox Interna^onal company seeking new North American manufacturing loca^on Investment: $800 MM, 750 employees (avg. wage $53K+) Need: 160 acre site Outcome: OKC region dropped Challenge: had only one site that was poten^ally a fit really. School Lands site, requiring public bid process and had challenges on site too (easements, etc.)
Project Domino Petro Chemical plant Investment: $550 MM, 80 employees (avg. wage $76K+) Need: 60 acre site, rail served and 2 million gallons of water/ day plus lots of natural gas (60,000 MMBtu/day) Outcome: OKC region dropped Challenge: water requirement just not workable AND would have been largest natural gas user in state
Project Lewis & Clark Fulfillment Center/distribu^on Investment: 400-600 employees Need: 300-500,000 sf building with 32 foot clear height and very ^ght ^meframe (needed opera^onal in 12 months) Outcome: OKC region dropped Challenge: no exis^ng buildings; only built to suit op^ons. Company was too nervous to have it work in their ^meframe
Project Delta Shared Service center (HR/IT/Finance) Investment: 1,100 employees (avg. wage $39K+) Need: Exis^ng 100,000 sf building Outcome: OKC region dropped in finals, Nashville chosen Challenge: two poten^al buildings. one was downtown, second refiued industrial building. Parking issues downtown and other challenges at second facility. Nashville, more op^ons for real estate, same ^me zone as HQ
Poten^al Take- Aways Challenges of Success are evident across most of MSA/region Lack of product straining ability to capture some opportuni^es Lease rate expecta^ons and reali^es geung closer but not completely there yet Pressure by other uses on good places for employment opportuni^es con^nues to create challenges Need to determine ways to balance lessons learned in 1980s with expecta^ons/ interests of today s prospects Staying financially wise while crea^ng enough product
THANK YOU Eric Long Research Economist elong@okcchamber.com 405-297- 8976 Kurt Foreman EVP Economic Development kforeman@okcchamber.com (405) 297-8945