Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist
Disclaimer Disclaimer: The statements in this presentation do not represent the official views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas nor the Federal Reserve System as a whole.
Today s talk is on the data What is the data series all about? Why are we interested in it? Who collects it and how? Where can you find it?
Oil prices over the last 30 years Dollars per barrel (nominal) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price 0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 NOTE: June 2016 data point is $49.02 per barrel, the average of price data for the weeks ending June 10 and June 17, 2016. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Crude oils have different qualities Sulfur content (percentage) sour 4.0 WCS 3.5 (Canada) 3.0 sweet 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Mars (U.S.) Brent (North Sea) WTI (U.S.) Tapis (Malaysia) 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 heavy light API gravity (a measure of crude oil density) NOTES: WCS = Western Canadian Select. WTI = West Texas Intermediate. API = American Petroleum Institute. SOURCES: Energy Information Administration; American Petroleum Institute.
Real prices low but not record low Dollars per barrel (May 2016 dollars) 160 West Texas Intermediate 140 crude oil spot price 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 NOTE: Data are adjusted for inflation using a core, urban, seasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI). SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Energy Information Administration.
Supply and Demand
World petroleum supply and demand Million barrels per day 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 Global supply Global demand 84 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 NOTE: Dashed lines represents forecasts. SOURCE: International Energy Agency.
Supply has outpaced demand Growth, million barrels per day 3.0 2.5 2.0 Annual world production growth Average annual world consumption growth 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2013 2015 SOURCE: International Energy Agency.
Supply-demand balance improving Million barrels per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 NOTES: Shaded bars represent forecasts. Series is the difference between world petroleum supply and demand. SOURCE: International Energy Agency.
U.S. crude oil inventories high Million barrels 550 2015 2016 Average levels 2010 2014 500 450 400 350 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Consumer Data for the U.S.
Low oil prices = low gas prices Dollars per gallon 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 U.S. retail diesel price U.S. retail gasoline price 1.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NOTE: Series is the monthly average of weekly price data. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
U.S. consumers hit the road! Million gallons per day 410 405.8 405.9 400 390 2016 395.8 2015 380 2014 370 360 2010 2014 average 350 340 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NOTE: April, May and June 2016 data points are averages of weekly estimates for those months. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Production Data for the U.S.
Shale boosts U.S. oil production Million barrels per day 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 NOTE: Last data point is 9.13 million barrels per day for March 2016. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Handful of states take part in boom Million barrels per day 3.5 Texas 3.28 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.79 1.56 Kansas Montana Utah Colorado Wyoming New Mexico Oklahoma North Dakota 1.11 0.24 Jan '10 Mar '16 Jan '10 Mar '16 Jan '10 Mar '16 1.10 SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Low prices deter new investment Rig count 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 U.S. oil rig count 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 NOTE: Last data point is 337 oil rigs for the week ending June 17, 2016. SOURCE: Baker Hughes.
Low prices deter new investment Rig count 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 U.S. oil rig count 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 NOTE: Last data point is 337 oil rigs for the week ending June 17, 2016. SOURCE: Baker Hughes.
SOURCE: Pixabay, photographer: Anita Starzycka. Drilling rig at work
SOURCE: Environmental Protection Agency. Horizontal vs. vertical drilling
Regional and Other Data
Energy in the 11 th District (http://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy11/index.cfm) SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Eagle Ford production data Million barrels per day 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Shale oil production Billion cubic feet per day 6 Shale gas production 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 5 4 3 2 1 0 NOTE: Data are through May 2016 and represent EIA s official shale gas and tight oil estimates, but are not survey data. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration, based on data collected by DrillingInfo Inc.
Anecdotal and company info Beige Book calls (http://www.dallasfed.org/research/beige/index.cfm) Dallas Fed Energy Survey (http://www.dallasfed.org/microsites/research/surve ys/des/index.cfm) Company reports (for publically traded companies)
Breakeven prices from the survey NOTES: Line depicts the mean and bars depict the range of responses. Sixty three exploration and production firms answered this question in March 2016. Other U.S. includes Bakken, Kansas and Gulf of Mexico, among other responses. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
Wrapping up We follow the oil and gas market regularly Data comes from a variety of sources (government, private sector, news sources, anecdotal) Hope to glean insights into the regional, national and global economies Questions?
Data sources
Data sources for prices U.S. Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm Wall Street Journal and other papers Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/energy) GasBuddy (http://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap)
Supply and demand data International Energy Agency (Oil Market Report) https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/ U.S. Energy Information Administration (Short-Term Energy Outlook) http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/
U.S. energy data U.S. Energy Information Administration (oil, gas, electricity, renewables, etc.) http://www.eia.gov/ Baker Hughes (rig count) http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irolrigcountsoverview Bureau of Labor and Statistics (employment data) http://www.bls.gov/
State and regional info U.S. Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.gov) EIA Drilling Productivity Report (http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/) State government agencies Energy in the 11 th District website