2014 WEEK 15 $25 Featuring the SDQL Including: Week 15 NFL selections+!! NFL Player Trends, SBB s Spotlight System, Dozens of NFL/NCAA Trends w/sdql! MTI s Newsletter Teaser Plays... Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4-Star Washington +13, Cleveland +5 Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Redskins are 27-0 ATSp6 as a road dog when they play at home in each of the next two weeks. The Browns are 19-0 ATSp6 as a dog vs a divisional opponent with a non-divisional opponent next week. Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week 4.5-Star Indianapolis +3, Baltimore -4, Pittsburgh +7.5 Supporting Teaser-Specific Trends: The Colts are 40-0 ATSp10 the week after a win in which they scored fewer points than expected. The Ravens are 36-0 ATSp10 at home when they scored more points than expected in each of their last two games. The Steelers are 23-0 ATSp10 as a road favorite vs a team that has averaged fewer than 25 rushes per game season-to-date. SBB s Newsletter Side of the Year a Hit Last week, SBB put itself on the line selecting Carolina +10 as its Newsletter Side of the Year. Not only was that play an outright winner, Carolina covered by 41 points, making it the second largest ATS win in any game this season. SBB s Guaranteed Side of the Week on Oakland was also a double digit SU winner as more than a TD-dog. SBB s complete week 15 picks will be available at Killercappers.com. In This Issue: MTi s Week 15 Selections... 2 SportsBook Breakers Week 15 Selections... 3 The Power of Two-Team Teasers... 4 SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System... 5 Cajun Sports College Football System... 5 SBB s 10 NFL Trends to Watch in Week 15... 6 SBB s Featured NFL Trend... 7 NFL Schedule Chart... 8 NFL Trends and Notes...9-11 SBB s NFL Player Trends... 10 NFL Handicapping Bible Trends... 11 Tracking The 2014 Season... While the powerful SDQL is great for tracking complex and very specific handicapping information, it is also just as useful for tracking the basics. In this spot all season long we will track basic handicapping situations over the full season, as well as how they ve gone the past three weeks. Situation 2014 ats record ats record Last 3 Weeks Home 101-106-1 25-22 Home Dog 31-33 10-7 Home Favorite 69-68-1 15-15 Off a win 93-97-1 20-28 Off a Cover 89-102 20-28 Passes Per Game 35.1 passes 34.6 passes Rushes Per Game 26.8 rushes 26.3 rushes Average Total Score 46.1 ppg. 46.8 ppg.
MTi s NFL Selections / Week 15 MTi s Newsletter Side 4-Star SAN DIEGO +4 over Denver -- Last week the Sunday Video System of the Week at SDQLConsultancy.com featured the following system: The league is 0-23 ATS -10.9 ppg as a road favorite when they are off a home win on Sunday as a TD+ favorite in which they threw at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average, committed at least one turnover and led by more than ten points at the half. The team that qualified was the Colts and they tacked on another winner by beating the Browns 25-24 as a 3.5 point favorite. NFL teams are now 0-24 ATS in this spot. To see the video of this system, go to: http://wp.me/p4lxuj-hv This week the Broncos qualify for this play-against system. Last week the Bills had 341 passing yards and converted 9 of 16 third downs and 2 of 3 fourth downs. This is a negative indicator, as the Broncos are 0-11 ATS after a win in which they allowed a conversion rate of higher than 50%. Check it out with this SDQL text: team=broncos and p:w and po:3dp>50 San Diego is off a 24-13 home loss to the Patriots in which they were shut out in the second half. This has been a golden spot for the Chargers. San Diego is 9-0 ATS off a regulation loss in which they scored less than 17 points and committed fewer than four turnovers. The SDQL text is: team = Chargers and date >= 20081201 and p:points<17 and p:overtime=0 and p:l and p:to<4 As you can see, the Chargers won every game and they were the dog in four of the nine. San Diego has scored an average of 34.6 ppg in this spot and covered the spread by an average of 15.2 ppg. In addition, the Chargers are 8-0 ATS as a dog when seeking same-season revenge for a loss vs a team that is within two wins of them in the standings. Check out the game listing with this SDQL text: team=chargers and D and P:L and P:season=season and -2<=wins-o:wins<=2 and season>=1999 The Chargers should be at their best here and that should be enough to stay within this number. MTi s FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 24 Denver 23 MTi s Newsletter Totals Play 4-Star San Francisco at Seattle OVER 38.5 -- The Seahawks defense is playing very well and this is a key divisional matchup. Normally, the UNDER should be considered first when two divisional rivals meet late in the season. However, the 49ers are double-digit dog here. They have to take some chances. They can t let the Seahawks grind them into the ground. As evidence we present a system that we have used successfully many times now. It basically states that teams playing their second road games are excellent OVER plays when their offense is struggling. Specifically, NFL teams are 32-5 OU as a TD-plus road dog when they scored fewer points than expected in each of their last two games and punted more than three times in their last game. The SDQL text is: A and 7<=line and p:a and p:dps<0 and pp:dps<0 and p:punts>3 and date>=20080921 The Seahawks are off a 24-14 win over the Eagles last week in which they trailed 7-0 after the first quarter. The Seahawks are a nice 8-0 OU after a win in which they trailed by at least a TD after the first quarter. The SDQL text is: team=seahawks and p:w and p:m1<=-7 and date>=20050101 This number has simply dropped too far. Since 2009 the Seahawks have played ten Sunday games in which the OU line was less than 39. Every single one went OVER, as can be seen by running this SDQL text: team=seahawks and total<39 and day=sunday and season>=2009 Seattle should be a lot of possessions here. Take the OVER. MTi s FORECAST: SEATTLE 27 San Francisco 24 Purchase MTi s NFL Sides, Totals, Teasers, Futures, First Quarter and First Half Plays at: www.killercappers.com 2 www.killersports.com
SportsBook Breakers NFL Selections / Week 15 SBB s Newsletter Side 4-STAR Washington over NY GIANTS - Both of these teams are dysfunctional right now, it is just that one of these teams dysfunction is playing out at the forefront of the media spotlight. Lay at TD with a team that is 1-7 in their last eight games is a disastrous idea which you can go against here. Teams that are losers overall on the season should not be favored by large amounts like we are seeing here. Teams that are more than six-point favorites that have won less than 46% of their games past week three are 104-158-8 ATS (line<=-6.5 and WP<46 and week>3). Last week, New York finally snapped a seven game losing streak in a 36-7 win over Tennessee. Even with all that scoring, the Giants went only 8-of-18 on third downs. The Giants are 0-10 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since 2001 at home after a game as a favorite where they failed on at least 10 third down attempts (team=giants and H and p:f and p:3df>=10 and season>=2001). As such, New York left points on the table while scoring five field goals. Teams coming off a win where they attempted at least five field goals are 68-93-1 ATS (p:field goals attempted>=5 and p:w). New York forced three turnovers in including one returned for a touchdown and committed only one, and that set them for the big game. The Giants are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite when they won last week as an away favorite while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 (team=giants and HF and p:waf and p:tom<=-2 and season>=2000). Of course even in success, Eli Manning wasn t able to completely prosper, throwing a terrible pick six. Of course just the week prior, allowing two defensive touchdowns killed them in a 25-24 loss to the Jaguars. Teams that won last game and have allowed defensive TDs each of the past two games are 23-48-1 ATS (p:w and po:notd>=1 and ppo:notd>=1). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New York by 1 SBB s Newsletter Total 4-STAR Miami and New England Under - Playing fimilar foe New England in week one was a blessing for the Dolphins this year as they were able to show the Patriots some new looks they didn t have film to prepare for. When Bill Belichick is really able to sink into a defensive game plan, it is success most of the time against elite offenses. Belichick should have that type game plan here and with Miami having much less than an elite offense, we expect them to have difficulty scoring. New England has been playing solid defensive games, finding success despite scoring fewer points than expected the past three games. The Patriots are 0-10 OU (-8.50 ppg) since Nov 19, 2000 as a home favorite coming off an away game, when they ve scored less than expected the past two games (team=patriots and HF and p:a and p:dps<0 and pp:dps<0 and date>=20001119). The last was a 23-14 Sunday night win over the Chargers in a game where the total was 52.5.Teams coming off a game where the total was at least 49 that went under by more than 12 points are 49-67-2 OU (p:total>=49 and p:ou margin<-12). They still scored in that game but settled for field goals. On the season, they are second in the league scoring on 47.3% of their drives this season. The Dolphins are 0-8 OU (-9.12 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 when facing a team that has scored on at least 40% of their drives on the season (team=dolphins and Sum(o:touchdowns+o:field goals@ o:team and o:season)>sum(o:drives*0.4@ o:team and o:season) and date>=20121007). Miami meanwhile suffered a 28-13 loss to Baltimore Sunday. Their offensive effort was led by Jarvis Landry with six catches for 55 yards. The Dolphins are 0-12 OU (-9.88 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 on the road in the first week weeks of the year after a loss where are Dolphins had at least six receptions (team=dolphins and A and 6<=max:p:receptions and p:l and week<17 and date>=20081130). We talked about New England being familiar with Miami now but that goes the other way as well, with Miami have a blueprint for getting after the quarterback that can effect a team they are very familiar with with. The Dolphins are 0-12 OU (-8.96 ppg) since Dec 23, 2007 on the road against a divisional opponent when facing a non-divisional opponent next week (team=dolphins and A and DIV and n:ndiv and n:nb and date>=20071223). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 41 points SportsBook Breakers picks are found at www.killercappers.com 2014 NFL Week 15 3
The Power of Two-Team Teasers One of the fantastic and unique features of www.killersports.com is the ability to run teaser trends. Each week we ll show off five such two-team teaser trends in this space utilizing this important and often overlooked area of handicapping. Any trend with a p6 designation is for a play on/under 6-pt teaser and a trend including m6 is for a play against/over 6-pt teaser. Teaser Trends The Redskins are 27-0 ATSp6 (10.5 ppg) in database history as a road dog when they play at home each of the next two weeks. The Browns are 19-0 ATSp6 (12.53 ppg) since December 17, 2006 as an underdog The Ravens are 16-0-1 ATSp6 (12.06 ppg) since December 11, 2011 when facing a team allowing at least 375 yards per game. Sports Data Query Language team=redskins and AD and n:h and nn:h and week + 2=nn:week team=browns and D and DIV and n:ndiv and NB and date>=20061217 team=ravens and 375<=oA(o:TY) and date>=20111211 The Broncos are 0-21 ATSm6 (-13.79 ppg) since December 12, 1993 as a favorite the week after a game where they at least 100 fewer passing yards than their season-to-date average. The Packers are 0-19-1 ATSm6 (-8.57 ppg) since December 13, 2009 as an away favorite coming off a win as a favorite last week. The Titans are 0-18 ATSm6 (-12.11 ppg) since September 15, 2013 coming off a game as an underdog. The Eagles are 18-0 OUm6 (15.22 ppg) since November 27, 2008 as a favorite after a game as an underdog. The Vikings are 17-0 OUm6 (13.76 ppg) since September 17, 1995 as a 7+ point underdog facing a team on a 2+ game winning streak. The Fortyniners are 0-25 OUp6 (-13.14 ppg) since November 5, 2006 the week after a game where they failed to cover by double digits. The Browns are 0-23-1 OUp6 (-10.75 ppg) since October 19, 2003 and tp:passing yards<tpp:passing yards<tppp:passing yards and tppp:week + 3=week team=broncos and F and p:passing yards + 100<=tA(p:PY) and NB and date>=19931212 team=packers and AF and p:fw and NB and date>=20091213 team=titans and p:d and date>=20130915 team=eagles and F and p:d and date>=20081127 team=vikings and 7<=line and o:streak>=2 and date>=19950917 team=fortyniners and p:ats margin<=-10 and NB and date>=20061105 team=browns and p:py<pp:py<ppp:py and ppp:week + 3==week and date>=20031019 4 www.killersports.com
Cajun Sports College Football System Cajun Sports College Football Systems will return for bowl season. Last season Cajun-Sports College Football posted a 10-0 ATS record with their 5.5* and 6* (Games of the Month and Year)! Cajun Sports is crushing college football selections again this season which you can find each week at Killercappers.com. SportsBook Breakers Spotlight System SportsBook Breakers has spent the past season focused on league systems and has found over 100 that are winners at well over the 55% required rate for the long-term success. Each week, SBB will highlight an active league system here: Teams that won last game despite allowing at least 28 points are 193-246-10 OU. SDQL TEXT: po:points>=28 and p:w One of the biggest keys to analyzing the NFL, be it from the inside the game as a coach or when handicapping, is to be able to determine how to turn success into long-term success. This situation looks at what NFL teams do when trying to turn a short-term success into something that s sustainable. System: Teams that won last game despite allowing at least 28 points are 193-246-10 OU. What we are looking at here is teams that win a really high scoring game in which both teams put up points. While it is exciting to win such a game, and certainly much better than being on the losing end, NFL coaches winning in that fashion is an anomaly, and if they want to establish long-term success they are going to need to be able to improve their defense, or at least control the ball for long enough where it is not an issue. While teams are thinking about reigning in scoring, the average bettor goes the other way, assuming that teams that win a shootout will be content to do so again. The total in these games on average is 44.0, up from an average of 43.6 in these previous games where at leats 57 points were scored and where they were obviously playing a capable offense. This system is active on two teams this week with Dallas coming off a 41-28 Thursday night win and Green Bay entering off a 43-37 Monday night victory. Consider this system when looking at their week 15 games. 2014 NFL Week 15 5
SBB s 10 NFL Trends to Watch: Week 15 Trends The Colts are 11-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 30, 2012 vs a divisional opponent. The Cardinals are 11-0-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) since November 30, 2011 when facing a team that had at least four sacks last game. The Bears are 10-0-1 ATS (12.0 ppg) since December 13, 1998 as an underdog after losing by 7+ points in each of the past two games. The Rams are 0-12 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a home favorite of more than two points vs a divisional opponent. The Giants are 0-11 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since 2001 at home after a game as a favorite where they failed on at least 10 third down attempts. The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since October 6, 2013 at home in Sunday games. The Bills are 11-0 OU (10.9 ppg) since Novemer 26, 2000 as a dog coming off a game as a dog where they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Bengals are 0-14 OU (-7.8 ppg) since 1991 on the road when they are off a loss in which they allowed at least 285 passing yards and at least 20 completions. The Eagles are 0-10 OU (-15.8 ppg) since January 2, 2011 as a favorite past week three of the season vs a divisional opponent. The Fortyniners are 0-10 OU (-9.5 ppg) since October 29, 2000 as an underdog of at least seven points when they failed to cover by at least 10 points last week. Sports Data Query Language team=colts and DIV and date>=20121230 team=cardinals and 4<=op:sacks and date>=20111030 team=bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213 team=rams and H and line<-2 and DIV and date>=20031214 team=giants and H and p:f and p:3df>=10 and season>=2001 team=titans and H and day=sunday and date>=20131006 team=bills and D and 3 * p:ry<p:py and p:d and date>=20001126 team=bengals and A and po:py>=285 and p:l and po:comp>=20 and season>=1991 team=eagles and F and DIV and week>3 and date>=20110102 team=fortyniners and 7<=line and p:ats margin<=-10 and NB and date>=20001029 Purchase SportsBook Breakers College & Pro Football Selections each week at www.killercappers.com 6 www.killersports.com
SportsBook Breakers NFL Trend of the Week The Texans are 0-15 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 23, 2009 when the total is greater than 48 if their line isn t 17+ points higher than last game. SDQL Text team = Texans and date>=20091123 and total>48 and line-p:line<17 System Analysis Certain teams prefer to play games at a certain tempo and pace and wil have success in those situations. But when you take them out of the elements their comfortable with, teams that are not elite tend to struggle. With this trend we see just occurring. Active Trend: The Texans are 0-15 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 23, 2009 when the total is greater than 48 if their line isn t 17+ points higher than last game. For the last several years with Arian Foster and a stable of other complimentary running backs, Houston is a team that wants to play games where they can control the clock with their running game and have defensive success to win lower scoring games. When facing games where high scoring teams are expected to have offensive success, it is no surprise that their game plans fall apart. That is the case here as games where the total has been high are not expected to be dictated by the Texans. And they have not been. Since the start of the trend in November 2009, Houston has run the ball an average of 29.8 times per game. When getting into these shootout type games they end up abandoning that strategy early, running just 23.9 times per game. This week, Houston plays one of the highest scoring teams in the league in a game where Indianapolis is favored at the total is 49. Expect the Colts fast pace and highscoring offense to be too much of the Texans. SU: 1-14-0 (-10.40, 6.7%) ATS: 0-15-0 (-8.17, 0.0%) avg line: 2.2 O/U: 9-6-0 (4.33, 60.0%) avg total: 49.8 Query Output Rushes Rush Yds Passes Completions Passing Yds TrnOvrs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 23.9 100.7 38.3 22.9 270.9 1.4 4.9 6.2 5.6 4.9 21.9 Opp 28.7 127.0 37.5 23.4 292.9 1.2 5.7 9.4 5.4 11.7 32.3 Day WeekSeason Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSrOUr ot Monday 11 2009 Texans Titans home 7-0 7-14 3-3 0-3 17-20 -4.0 48.5-3 -7.0-11.5-9.2-2.2 L L U 0 Sunday 12 2009 Texans Colts home 14-0 6-7 0-7 7-21 27-35 3.0 48.5-8 -5.0 13.5 4.2 9.2 L L O 0 Sunday 5 2010 Texans Giants home 0-14 3-10 7-3 0-7 10-34 -3.0 48.5-24 -27.0-4.5-15.8 11.2 L L U 0 Monday 8 2010 Texans Colts away 0-7 3-10 7-10 7-3 17-30 5.5 51.5-13 -7.5-4.5-6.0 1.5 L L U 0 Sunday 9 2010 Texans Chargers home 10-14 10-0 3-7 0-8 23-29 3.0 49.5-6 -3.0 2.5-0.2 2.8 L L O 0 Sunday 10 2010 Texans Jaguars away 3-3 0-14 14-0 7-14 24-31 1.0 48.5-7 -6.0 6.5 0.2 6.2 L L O 0 Thursday 13 2010 Texans Eagles away 3-7 7-13 14-0 0-14 24-34 8.0 52.0-10 -2.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 L L O 0 Sunday 16 2010 Texans Broncos away 7-0 10-0 6-10 0-14 23-24 -2.0 48.5-1 -3.0-1.5-2.2 0.8 L L U 0 Sunday 3 2011 Texans Saints away 10-0 6-10 3-7 14-23 33-40 4.0 52.5-7 -3.0 20.5 8.8 11.8 L L O 0 Sunday 5 2011 Texans Raiders home 7-3 7-9 3-3 3-10 20-25 -5.5 48.5-5 -10.5-3.5-7.0 3.5 L L U 0 Thursday 12 2012 Texans Lions away 0-7 14-14 10-3 7-7 34-31 -3.5 50.0 3-0.5 15 7.2 7.8 W L O 1 Monday 14 2012 Texans Patriots away 0-14 0-7 7-7 7-14 14-42 5.5 51.0-28 -22.5 5-8.8 13.8 L L O 0 Sunday 19 2012 Texans Patriots away 3-7 10-10 0-14 15-10 28-41 9.5 48.5-13 -3.5 20.5 8.5 12.0 L L O 0 Sunday 16 2013 Texans Broncos home 3-3 3-13 7-0 0-21 13-37 10.0 52.5-24 -14.0-2.5-8.2 5.8 L L U 0 Sunday 9 2014 Texans Eagles home 7-7 7-10 0-7 7-7 21-31 2.0 48.5-10 -8.0 3.5-2.2 5.8 L L O 0 Sunday 15 2014 Texans Colts away 6.5 49.0 SportsBook Breakers is over $+$3000 for the $100 player on NFL selections the past four years. Find SportsBook Breakers selections every week at www.killercappers.com 2014 NFL Week 15 7
2014 NFL Week 15 Time Teams Prev. Next Lines Final Notes 8:25 THUR 1;00 1;00 4:05 4:05 4:25 4:25 8:30 8:30 MON Arizona at St Louis Houston at Indianapolis Green Bay at Buffalo Tampa Bay at Carolina Cincinnati at Cleveland Pittsburgh at Atlanta Jacksonville at Baltimore Washington at N.Y. Giants Miami at New England Oakland at Kansas City Denver at San Diego N.Y. Jets at Tennessee San Francisco at Seattle Minnesota at Detroit Dallas at Philadelphia New Orleans at Chicago W vs KC W @ WAS W @ JAC W @ CLE W vs ATL# L @ DEN L @ DET W @ NO L vs PIT L vs IND W @ CIN L @ GB# L vs HOU W @ MIA L vs STL W @ TEN L vs BAL W @ SD* W vs SF L @ ARZ W vs BUF L vs NE* L @ MIN L vs NYG L @ OAK W @ PHL W vs NYJ W vs TB W @ CHI^ L vs SEA L vs CAR L vs DAL^ vs SEA* vs NYG vs BAL @ DAL @ TB @ OAK vs GB vs CLE vs DEN# @ CAR vs KC @ NO vs TEN^ @ HOU vs PHL% @STL vs MIN @ NYJ vs BUF @ PIT @ CIN# @ SF% vs NE @ JAC^ vs SD% @ ARZ* @ MIA @ CHI vs IND @ WAS% vs ATL vs DET #On Monday Night, *On Sunday Night, % On Saturday Night, ^On Thursday Night Notes: 8 www.killersports.com
Trends and Notes / Week 15 Cardinals at Rams - The Cardinals are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.31 ppg) since Nov 12, 2000 coming off a road win as an underdog last week where they trailed at halftime. The Rams are 0-8 ATS (-13.06 ppg) since Sep 27, 2009 after they allowed at least 10 points less than their season-to-date average on the road last week. The Cardinals are 0-9-1 OU (-9.30 ppg) since Nov 13, 2011 when playing on turf the week after a win. Packers at Bills - The Packers are 0-8 OU (-11.25 ppg) since Nov 26, 2009 on the road after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-6.25 ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 the week after a loss where a receiver had at least six receptions. Bengals at Browns - The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (7.71 ppg) since Nov 03, 1991 when the line is within three of pick facing a team they lost to as a favorite earlier in the season. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-9.71 ppg) since Sep 16, 2007 as a road favorite vs a divisional opponent. The Browns are 0-7 ATS (-12.14 ppg) since Nov 26, 2006 within three of pick after returning an interception for a touchdown last game. Broncos at Chargers - The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (12.57 ppg) since Oct 19, 2009 on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Chargers are 0-7 ATS (-9.93 ppg) since Nov 27, 2011 at home when facing a team that has scored less than 1/6 of their total points from field goals. The Broncos are 0-9 OU (-10.94 ppg) since Sep 27, 2009 on the road on grass after playing as a home favorite. The Chargers are 7-0 OU (8.93 ppg) since Oct 10, 2004 as a home underdog the week after a game where they had at least three minutes of time of possession fewer than their season-to-date average. Raiders at Chiefs - The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-9.21 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 when they have a running back who had more than 20 carries last game. The Chiefs are 9-0-1 ATS (9.85 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 when they have a receiver with at least five catches last game. The Chiefs are 0-9 ATS (-9.67 ppg) since Sep 19, 2004 as a favorite when facing a team that gets more than 2/3 of their first downs via the pass. The Raiders are 0-9 OU (-11.06 ppg) since Nov 21, 2010 coming off a home game where they had a 100-yard receiver. The Chiefs are 0-9-1 OU (-12.70 ppg) since Dec 05, 2010 at home when facing a team that has an average third down conversion rate of less than 35%. Texans at Colts - The Texans are 0-7 ATS (-10.50 ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least thirteen passing first downs per game. The Texans are 0-7 ATS (-9.29 ppg) since Dec 10, 2012 as a dog after a game on the road. The Texans are 7-0 OU (10.29 ppg) since Dec 19, 2010 facing a team with a negative turnover margin in each of the last two games. Cowboys at Eagles -The Eagles are 0-9 ATS (-10.83 ppg) since Sep 19, 2010 as a favorite the week after a home loss. The Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-9.92 ppg) since Nov 04, 2007 vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road with a divisional opponent next. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (13.71 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 as a dog when their opponent s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. Steelers at Falcons - The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (9.14 ppg) since Nov 04, 2012 when the line is within three of pick the week after a game where they covered by double digits. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-11.50 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 on the road coming off a win and facing a team with fewer wins on the season. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (10.07 ppg) since Jan 22, 2006 on the road after playing as an away dog. The Falcons are 0-7-1 OU (-6.75 ppg) since Oct 09, 2011 as an underdog coming off an away game. Redskins at Giants - The Redskins are 0-7 ATS (-15.14 ppg) since Sep 25, 2014 coming off a game where they were underdogs. The Redskins are 0-7 OU (-7.50 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 the week after a loss where their turnover margin was -2 or worse. The Giants are 8-0 OU (9.88 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 the week after a double digit win as an away favorite where they led by at least seven points at halftime. Vikings at Lions - The Vikings are 0-8-1 ATS (-11.39 ppg) since Oct 26, 2003 the week after a win as a favorite where they had a defensive touchdown. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS (-11.36 ppg) since Oct 25, 2009 the week after a home win where they allowed more points than expected. The Lions are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.38 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 the week after a win where they had a turnover margin of at least +2. The Vikings are 9-0-1 OU (11.35 ppg) since Dec 09, 1990 as a road dog of at least seven point the week after a win as a favorite. The Lions are 0-7 since Dec 22, 2013 after a game at home. continued on page 10 2014 NFL Week 15 9
Trends and Notes / Week 15 continued Buccaneers at Panthers - The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (10.44 ppg) since Jan 03, 2010 as home favorites the week after a road win. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS (-12.71 ppg) since Oct 10, 2010 after playing the Saints. The Buccaneers are 0-7 OU (-7.36 ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 the week after a loss where their turnover margin was -2 or worse. Dolphins at Patriots - The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-8.50 ppg) since Nov 15, 2012 on the road between home games. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (17.00 ppg) since Jan 02, 2011 when they had at least three sacks each of the past two weeks. The Dolphins are 0-9 OU (-7.44 ppg) since Dec 23, 2007 as a road dog vs a divisional opponent with a non-divisional opponent next. The Dolphins are 0-7 OU (-7.29 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a underdog the week after a loss where they allowed at least four sacks. The Patriots are 9-0 OU (13.22 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 when they had at least three sacks each of the last two weeks. Jaguars at Ravens - The Jaguars are 0-9 ATS (-10.06 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 when they allowed at least three sacks each of the last two games. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (16.71 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 as a underdog of at least seven points when they allowed at least four sacks last week. The Ravens are 0-7 OU (-11.57 ppg) since Nov 19, 2006 as a favorite when they scored more points than expected in each of the last three games. The Ravens are 0-7 OU (-9.57 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as a favorite of at least seven points when they rushed for at least 150 yards last game. continued on page 11 SportsBook Breakers NFL Player Trends Trends The Steelers are 0-10 ATS (-9.05 ppg) since Sep 25, 2011 on the road after a game where Health Miller did not have at least 25 receiving yards. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (9.79 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 when Demaryius Thomas had less than three receptions last game. The Bears are 11-0-1 OU (12.92 ppg) since Oct 10, 2013 after a game where Martellus Bennett had at least five receptions. The Texans are 8-0 OU (13.88 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 coming off a road game where Arian Foster had at least 20 carries. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-6.07 ppg) since Dec 04, 2011 coming off a home game where AJ Green had a catch of at least 30 yards. Sports Data Query Language A and Steelers:Heath Miller:p:receiving yards<25 and date>=20110925 Broncos:Demaryius Thomas:p:receptions<3 and date>=20111023 5<=Bears:Martellus Bennett:p:receptions and date>=20131010 Texans:Arian Foster:p:rushes>20 and tp:site=away and date>=20120101 30<=Bengals:AJ Green:p:longest reception and p:h and date>=20111204 Do you run a lot of SDQL text? A private server from SportsDataBase.com is $500 per month for all sports all the time. Run 500,000,000 trends a day with no one else slowing you down. For more information, e-mail support@killersports.com 10 www.killersports.com
Trends and Notes / Week 15 continued Fortyniners at Seahawks - The Fortyniners are 7-0-1 ATS (16.69 ppg) since Dec 14, 1991 the week after a game as a road favorite where they had at least 10 fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Fortyniners are 0-8 OU (-9.31 ppg) since Nov 05, 2000 as an underdog when they are coming off back-to-back losses by double digits. The Seahawks are 7-0 OU (11.57 ppg) since Jan 02, 2005 after a win last week where they trailed by at least seven points after the first quarter. Jets at Titans - The Jets are 9-0 OU (9.50 ppg) since Jan 24, 2010 on the road after playing as an away dog. The Jets are 7-0 ATS (11.43 ppg) since Oct 05, 1997 on the road the week after a road game where they had at least 34 minutes time of possession. Teams are 0-7 ATS (-10.50 ppg) since Oct 06, 2014 the week after playing the Giants. The Jets are 0-7 OU (-11.21 ppg) since Nov 24, 2013 the week after a loss where they had a reception of at least 30 yards. The Titans are 7-0 OU (15.86 ppg) since Oct 30, 2005 as a home dog the week after a game where they gained first downs on less than 25% of their plays. Saints at Bears - The Bears are 0-9 ATS (-7.06 ppg) since Dec 12, 2010 at home when facing a team that has scored less than 1/6 of their total points from field goals. The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-13.29 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Bears are 7-0 OU (16.00 ppg) since Oct 01, 2012 after a home game where they rushed for a touchdown. NFL HANDICAPPING BIBLE Active Trends Trends Sports Data Query Language OAK009: The Raiders are 0-11 ATS as a dog the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers. CLE006: The Browns are 0-10 ATS as a dog when their opponent has averaged at least 29.25 rushes per game season-to-date. NYJ003: The Jets are 10-0 ATS as a favorite over a team that has suffered an average turnover margin of at least 0.6 per game, season-to-date. SF003: The Fortyniners are 8-0 ATS on artificial turf after a loss as an away favorite. CLE012: The Browns are 0-14 OU at home when the line is within 3.5 points of pick-em. the week following a game as a dog in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. team=raiders and D and p:to=0 and p:w and season>=2002 team=browns and D and oa(rushes)>29.25 and date>=20101010 team=jets and F and oa(tom)>0.6 and date>=20091025 team=fortyniners and surface=artificial and p:laf and season>=1992 team=browns and H and -3.5 <= line <= 3.5 and p:fdp<25 and p:d and NB and season >= 2000 Every week there are several active trends available in the 2014 NFL Handicapping Bible. Check your copy to find trends not included here. If you have yet to download your copy, do so at http://killersports.com/download/nfl/2014nflbible.pdf COPYRIGHT NOTICE All the material in this publication is copyrighted by the United States Government. No part of this periodical may be reproduced in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, and electronic recording without written consent from Killer Sports Publishing. If the reader has any questions or comments about this newsletter, please write us at: Killer Sports Publishing or e-mail us at: PO Box 862, Berea OH 44017 support@killersports.com 2014 NFL Week 15 11
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