ICES advice on fishing opportunities in 2019 Baltic Sea. Colm Lordan, ICES ACOM Vice-Chair BSAC Joint WG, June, Tallinn

ICES advice on fishing opportunities in 2019 Baltic Sea Colm Lordan, ICES ACOM Vice-Chair BSAC Joint WG, 11 12 June, Tallinn

2 31 30 29 32 20 21 27 28.2 28.1 22 23 24 25 26 Baltic Sea Subdivisions

Dab 22 32 Turbot 22 32 Sea trout 22 32 HERRING: Gulf of Bothnia Central Baltic Gulf Riga Plaice 21 23 Plaice 24 32 Herring 20-24 Salmon 22 31 Salmon 32 Cod SD 22-24 Cod SD 24-32 Sprat SD 22-32 Flounder 22 23 Flounder 24 25 Flounder 26 & 28 Flounder 27 & 29 32 Stocks assessed by ICES

Rules for advice on fishing opportunities The advice rules applied by ICES in developing advice on fishing opportunities depends on: - management strategies agreed by relevant management bodies and - the information and knowledge available for the stock

Management Plan/Strategy Consistent with PA Recognised by competent authorities No ICES MSY approach No ICES PA approach

ICES MSY approach Maximize long term average yield Safeguard against low SSB Stay within precautionary boundaries more caution below B lim F B lim MSY B trigger F MSY SSB at start of advisory year Category 1 and 2 stocks

EU Multiannual Plan for cod, herring and sprat stocks (MAP)

EU Multiannual Plan for cod, herring and sprat stocks (MAP)

Stock Advice to Catch advice No catch advice only MSY Ranges Timing for be Periodicity MSY advice on stock in the advice provided in years FMSY FMSY PA advice status relative to scenario release in 2018 point ranges MSY and PA table Brill (Scophthalmus rhombus ) in subdivisions 22-32 (Baltic Sea) 3 Early Jun. x Cod (Gadus morhua) in subdivisions 22-24, western Baltic stock (western Baltic Sea) x 1 Early Jun. x Cod (Gadus morhua ) in subdivisions 24-32, eastern Baltic stock (eastern Baltic Sea) x 1 Early Jun. x Dab (Limanda limanda ) in subdivisions 22-32 (Baltic Sea) 3 Early Jun. x Flounder (Platichthys flesus ) in subdivisions 24 and 25 (west of Bornholm and southwestern central Baltic 3 Early Jun. x Flounder (Platichthys flesus ) in subdivisions 27 and 29-32 (northern central and northern Baltic Sea) 3 Early Jun. x Herring (Clupea harengus ) in Subdivision 28.1 (Gulf of Riga) x 1 Early Jun. x Herring (Clupea harengus ) in Subdivisions 30 and 31 (Gulf of Bothnia) x 1 Early Jun. X x Herring (Clupea harengus ) in subdivisions 25-29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga (central Baltic Sea) x 1 Early Jun. x Herring (Clupea harengus ) in Division 3.a and subdivisions 22-24 (western Baltic spring spawners) x 1 Early Jun. x x Plaice (Pleuronectes platessa ) in subdivisions 24-32 (Baltic Sea, excluding the Sound and Belt Seas) x 1 Early Jun. x Salmon (Salmo salar ) in subdivisions 22-31 (Baltic Sea, excluding the Gulf of Finland) x 1 Early Jun. x Sea trout (Salmo trutta ) in subdivisions 22-32 (Baltic Sea) 3 Early Jun. x Sole (Solea solea ) in subdivisions 20-24 (Skagerrak and Kattegat, western Baltic Sea) x 1 End Jun. x Sprat (Sprattus sprattus ) in subdivisions 22-32 (Baltic Sea) x 1 Early Jun. x Turbot (Scophthalmus maximus ) in subdivisions 22-32 (Baltic Sea) x 3 Early Jun. x

Wanted and unwanted catch cover the fish that would be landed respectively discarded in the absence of the EU landing obligation. Catch Based on the observed discard rate by age and reported landings. Landing Discard Wanted catch Above Minimum reference size Below Minimum reference size Live discard Dead discard Landing obligation/ discard ban

Changing environment Changes in population dynamics (productivity) and distribution assessment method Affects reference points.

Baltic Sea Landings (t) by country

Baltic Sea Landings by species

Baltic Sea Progress towards CFP Objectives

Baltic Sea Progress towards CFP Objectives

Advice 2015 Advice 2016 Advice 2017 Advice 2018 Advice 2019 % change Baltic Sea Catch Landings Catch Landings Catch Landings Catch Landings Catch Landings 2018-2019 Brill in 22 32 29 23 18 12 12 0% Cod in 22 24 10196 7797 3475 5295 15201 187% Cod in 24 32 29085 29220 26994 26071 16685-36% Dab in 22 32 1,428 2980 3069 1657 2762 2762 0% Flounder in 22 and 23 1745 3042 3650 2847 4030 4030 0% Flounder in 24 and 25 17182 28908 34690 22548 41628 41628 0% Flounder in 26 and 28 3257 2606 2527 2085 1617 1617 0% Flounder in 27 and 29-32 228 274 329 395 395 0% Herring in 25 29 and 32 193000 193000 201000 201000 216000 267745 155333-42% Herring in 30 and 31 186534 186534 103254 103254 141008 95566 88703-7% Herring in 28.1 34300 34300 26200 26200 23078 29195 26932-8% Herring in 3a and 22-24 44439 44439 52547 52547 56802 35612 0-100% Plaice in 21-23 4031 2626 8639 4642 8333 5405 15237 182% Plaice in 24-32 881 2156 1063 2587 3104 3725 20% Salmon in 32 11800 11800 11800 11800 11800 0% Salmon in 22 31 116000 116000 116000 116000 116000 0% Sprat in 22 32 222000 222000 205000 205000 314000 301722 301125 0% Turbot in 22 32 220 198 194 186 - NA Total 723614 707840 670766 596784 836754 29137 820159 673385-18% Baltic Sea Advice by stock

Baltic cod 25stocks Bagge et al., 1994 Baltic Sea Cod stocks

Baltic cod 26catches by stock Baltic Sea Cod stocks

Baltic cod 27catches in SD 24 by stock Baltic Sea Cod stocks

Western Baltic Cod stock

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Landings in tonnes 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Denmark Finland Germany Estonia Lithuania Latvia Poland Sweeden Cod Western Baltic SD 22-24 landings by country

50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Landings Discards Recreational catch Landings Discards Recreational catch Western Baltic cod. Commercial landings, discard and recreational catch in tonnes and relative. Western Baltic cod stock Catches

3500 Recreational catch 30% % of Catch by Recrational Fishers 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 0% Only Germen data included in the assessment. Western Baltic cod stock Recreational catches

0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 Age Structure of Catch 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Commercial Recreational Relative age composition in commercial and recreational catches in 2016 & 2017. 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age Structure of Catch 2017 Age 1 Age 2 Age 3 Age 4 Age 5 Age 6 Age 7 Recrational Catch Commercial Catch Western Baltic cod stock Selectivity

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Age 0 Quarter 4 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Age 1 Q4 Q1 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Age 2 Age 2 Q4 Q1 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 0 0 0 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 500 400 300 200 100 30000 2000 Age 3 Q4 Age 4 Q1 25000 1500 20000 15000 1000 10000 500 5000 Q1 Q4 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 0 0 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Western Baltic cod stock Strong 2016 Year Class

SSB increasing rapidly and will be above MSY B trigger in 2019 (48 734 t) F decling but, still above F MSY Strong 2016 yearclass Commercial catches in 2017 was 3923t, lowest observed. Discards in 2017 estimated to 4.8 % of total commercial catch. Recreational catches in 2017 estimated to 932 t.

Variable Value Notes F ages 3 5 (2018) 0.20 Based on catch constraint for 2018. SSB (2019) 48 734 Based on catch constraint for 2018. R age1 (2018) 1633 SAM assessment. R age1 (2019) 15 685 Sampled from the last ten years. R age1 (2020) 15 240 Sampled from the last ten years. Total catch (2018) 5612 Commercial + recreational catches. Commercial catches (2018) 3858 Calculated as the 2018 TAC (5597 tonnes) plus an assumed discard ratio as in 2017 (4.8%), and accounting for the proportion of western Baltic cod in commercial catches in subdivisions 22 24 in 2017 (66%). Recreational catches (2018) 1754 As it is unclear how the bag limit will affect the fisheries in 2018, the same recreational catch (1754 tonnes) assumed for 2017 was applied in the forecast, i.e. average over 3 years (2014 2016) of recreational catch (2654 tonnes) minus the estimated reduction (900 tonnes) due to the introduction of the bag limit in 2017*. Western Baltic cod stock Assumptions catch forecast

ICES understanding of the harvest control rule in the MAP. Ftarget 0,5 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 Remedial measures Range B 0,25 0,2 Range A 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 0 38400 B lim Western Baltic cod MSY B trigger SSB 2019 SSB

ICES advises that when the EU multiannual plan (MAP) is applied, total catches in 2019 that correspond to the F ranges in the plan are between 9094 tonnes and 23 992 tonnes. According to the MAP, catches higher than those corresponding to FMSY (15 021 tonnes) can only be taken under conditions specified in the MAP, whilst the entire range is considered precautionary when applying the ICES rule. Depending on the management decision for recreational catches, assumed to be between 1754 tonnes and 3227 tonnes, the corresponding commercial catches are between 5867 tonnes and 22 238 tonnes. Western Baltic cod stock Catch advice

There is a risk of growth overfishing because the 2016 year class fish have not yet reached their full growth potential. Therefore, to make use of the full growth potential of the 2016 year class, ICES suggests to use the F MSY lower value in the MAP when setting the TAC. Western Baltic cod stock Sensitivity of Catch advice

Basis Total catch * (2019) Recreational catch Commercial catch Western Baltic cod stock Catch options F total (2019) F commercial (2019) SSB (2020) % SSB change *** % Advice change ^ ICES advice basis EU MAP**: F MSY 15021 1754 13267 0.26 0.23 75334 55 184 F = MAP F MSY lower 9094 1754 7340 0.15 0.12 82691 70 191^^ F = MAP F MSY upper 23992 1754 22238 0.45 0.42 63804 31 NA ^^^ EU MAP**: F MSY 15021 3227 11794 0.26 0.20 75334 55 184 F = MAP F MSY lower 9094 3227 5867 0.15 0.10 82691 70 191^^ Other scenarios F MSY 15021 1754 13267 0.26 0.23 75334 55 184 Zero commercial catch 1754 1754 0 0.03 0.00 91905 89 67 F = F pa 35123 1754 33369 0.74 0.70 49290 1 563 F = F lim 43288 1754 41534 1.01 0.97 39365 19 718 SSB (2020) = B lim 53332 1754 51578 1.46 1.41 27400 44 907 SSB (2020) = B pa 44086 1754 42332 1.04 1.00 38401 21 733 SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger 44086 1754 42332 1.04 1.00 38401 21 733 F = F 2018 12067 1754 10313 0.2 0.17 78916 62 128

Eastern Baltic Cod stock

Landings in Tonnes 450000 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Denmark Estonia Finland German Dem.Rep. Germany Fed. Rep. Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia Sweden USSR Faroe Islands^ Norway Unallocated** Cod Eastern Baltic Landings SDs 25 32 by country

Landings in Tonnes 120000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Denmark Estonia Finland German Dem.Rep. Germany Fed. Rep. Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia Sweden USSR Faroe Islands^ Norway Cod Eastern Baltic Landings SDs 25 32 by country

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Catches Tonnes 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Total landings Unallocated* Discards Landings BMS Eastern Baltic cod stock Catches

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Catches Tonnes Catches % 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Catch in 24 Catch in 25-32 Catch in 24 Catch in 25-32 Eastern Baltic cod stock Catch by SD

Small fish index (cod < 30 cm) has declined from a maximum in 2013 Stock size indicator (biomass of cod 30 cm) has decreased after 2010; Exploitation rate decreased during 2005-2009; slight increase followed by no clear trend Landings include fish above and below Minumun Conservation Reference Size (MCS, 35 cm) Landings below MCS < 1% (316 t) Discarding: 10% (observer data), considered an underestimate Eastern Baltic cod stock Status of stock and exploitation

The precautionary buffer was last applied in 2015. The fishing mortality is above and the biomass below proxies of the MSY reference points; therefore, the precautionary buffer was applied to the advice. Index A (2017, 2018) 83 Index B (2014, 2015, 2016) 152 Index ratio (A/B) 0.55 Uncertainty cap Applied 0.80 Advised catch for 2018 26 071 tonnes Precautionary buffer Applied 0.80 Catch advice** 16 685 tonnes % Advice change*** 36% Eastern Baltic cod stock Catch forecast

ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches in 2019 from the eastern Baltic cod stock should be no more than 16 685 tonnes. This advice applies to all catches from the stock in subdivisions 24 32. Eastern Baltic Cod Stock Catch advice

Cod Fishing opportunities by management area

Commercial catch WB cod stock Commercial catch EB cod stock Commercial catch of cod by management area (TAC) A B C D E F G H Area Total SDs 22 23 SD 24 Total SD 24 SDs 25 32 SDs22 24 A. Status quo distribution same settings as last year % TAC change (SDs 22 24)* Calculation = A 0.73^ = A 0.27^ = C 2.38^^ = D E = B + C + E = F SDs 25 32 % TAC change (SDs 25 32)** EU MAP: FMSY F=MAP FMSY lower 13267 9685 3582 16685 8520 8165 21787 289 8165 76 7340 5358 1982 16685 4714 11971 12054 115 11971 65 B. EB cod catch in SD 24 limits WB cod catch ratio in catches is mean of 2015 2017, max. 10.5% of EB cod total catch in SD 24 Calculation = A 0.73^ =E/ 2.38^^ = D x 0.105*** = D E = B + C + E = F EU MAP: FMSY 13267 9685 737 16685 1754 14931 12176 118 14931 56 F=MAP FMSY lower 7340 5358 737 16685 1754 14931 7849 40 14931 56 C. EB cod to WB cod ratios in SD 24 catch changed according to stock development other parameters as in option A Calculation = A 0.73^ = A 0.27^ = C 0.79^^^ = D E = B + C + E = F EU MAP: FMSY F=MAP FMSY lower 13267 9685 3582 16685 2827 13858 16094 188 13858 60 7340 5358 1982 16685 1564 15121 8904 59 15121 56 Cod Catch forecast by management area

Flatfish stocks 30 31 * Plaice in subdivisions 21-23 * Plaice in subdivisions 24-32 Management areas for plaice: 21 & 22-32 * Turbot in subdivisions 22-32 29 32 * Brill in subdivisions 22-32 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 26 28.2 28.1 * Dab in subdivisions 22-32 * Flounder in subdivisions 22-23 * Flounder in subdivisions 24-25 * Flounder in subdivisions 26 and 28 * Flounder in subdivisions 27 and 29-32

Plaice in subdivisions 21-23 * SSB strongly increased from 2009 and above MSY B trigger since 2012 * F: declined and below F MSY since 2013 * Recruitment: increasing Catch (2017) = 4242 t (23% discarded)

Plaice in subdivisions 21-23 2016 and 2017 assessment Figure 2 Plaice in subdivisions 21 23. Historical assessment results.

Plaice in subdivisions 21-23 ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, as requested by the European Commission, this corresponds to catches in 2019 of no more than 15 237 tonnes. Assumptions 2018: F(2018) = F(2017) = 0.26 Catch 3747 t SSB(2019) = 22044>>> MSY B trigger (5 550 kt) Basis Total catch (2019) Wanted catch* (2019) Unwanted catch* (2019) F (2019) SSB (2020) % SSB change ** % Advice change *** ICES advice basis Precautionary approach: F PA 15237 11651 3586 0.69 17271 16 +182 Other scenarios F = 0 0 0 0 0 29679 +45 100 F MSY 9338 7140 2198 0.37 21949 +7 +73 F = F lim 19669 15040 4629 1.01 13735 33 +264 SSB (2020) = B pa 30096 23012 7084 2.45 5550 73 +457 SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger 30096 23012 7084 2.45 5550 73 +457 SSB (2020) = B lim 32239 24651 7588 3.06 4077 80 +496 F = F 2018 6821 5216 1605 0.26 23670 5 +26

Plaice in subdivisions 24-32 Strong increase in stock size F in 2017 is the lowest observed in the time-series Catch (2017) = 1058 t (38.6% discarded) Discarding varies depending on market prices and quota of target species (e.g. cod), and can affect all lengths

Plaice in subdivisions 24-32 Figure 2 Plaice in subdivisions 24 32. SPiCT model results used for the evaluation of the stock and exploitation status (the proxy F MSY and MSY B trigger are represented by horizontal lines in the left and right panels, respectively). The dots in the left panel represent Q1 and Q4 BITS indices.

Plaice in subdivisions 24-32 SSB trend from exploratory stock assessment used as stock size indicator: The relative fishing mortality is below and the relative stock size above proxies of the MSY reference points; therefore, no additional precautionary buffer was applied. Index A (2017, 2018) 2.9 Index B (2014, 2015, 2016) 1.24 Index ratio (A/B) 2.3 Uncertainty cap Applied 1.20 Advised catch for 2018 3104 tonnes Discard rate (2017) 0.38 Precautionary buffer Not applied - Catch advice** 3725 tonnes % change in advice ^ +20%

Plaice Catch by management area Table 4 Plaice in subdivisions 24 32. Catch and landings overview and calculation of catches by management area for plaice in subdivisions 21 23 and 24 32. Basis Catch 2017 Landings 2017 ICES stock advice 2019 (catch) Stock area-based SDs 21 23 4 242 3 243 15 237 SDs 24 32 1 051 650 3 725 Total advised catch, 2019 (SDs 21 32) 18 962 SD 21 1 337 801 Management SDs 22 23 2 905 2 442 area-based SDs 22 32 3 956 3 092 Share of SD 21 of the total catch in SDs 21 23 in 2017 Catch in 2019 for SD 21 Catch in 2019 for SDs 22 32 calculation 1 337 t / 4 242 t (catch in 2017 SD 21 / catch in 2017 SDs 21 23) 15 237 t 0.315 (ICES stock advice in 2019 (catch) for SDs 21 23 share) 18 962 t 4 802 t (total advised catch in 2019 SDs 21 32 catch SD 21) results 0.315 4 802 14 160 Share of SD 21 of the total landings in SDs 21 23 in 2017 801 t / 3 243 t (landings in 2017 SD 21 / landings in 2017 SDs 21 23) 0.247

Turbot in subdivisions 22-32 ICES has not been requested to provide advice on fishing opportunities for this stock. Landings stable since 2007 The stock size indicator has fluctuated without trend over the time-series Mainly bycatch Landings (2017) = 264 t (discards unknown) ICES cannot assess the stock and exploitation status relative to MSY and PA reference points because the reference points are undefined.

Pelagic stocks 31 * Herring: Western Baltic spring spawners (subdivisions 20-24) 30 29 20 27 28.1 28.2 21 23 26 25 22 24 32 * Herring: Central Baltic (subdivisions 25-29 & 32, excluding Gulf of Riga) * Herring: Gulf of Riga (Subdvision 28.1) * Herring: Subdivision 30 * Herring: Subdivision 31 * Sprat: subdivisions 22-32

Landings in t 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Herring stocks 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 600000 Herring 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0

Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivisions 20-24) This stock was benchmarked in 2018 The new assessment shows a better retrospective pattern. The new multi-fleet model adopted at the benchmark is expected to provide a better representation of the temporal development of fishing mortality. New survey indices were added giving a better coverage of younger age-classes of the stock. Revised Reference Points Reference point Old Value New Value MSY B trigger 110 000 150 000 F MSY 0.32 0.31 B lim 90 000 120 000 B pa 110 000 150 000 F lim 0.52 0.45 F pa 0.45 0.35

Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivisions 20-24) SSB below B lim F above F MSY Recruitment has been low since the mid-2000s Recruitment 2016 n& 2017 lowest in the time series Figure 1 Herring in subdivisions 20 24, spring spawners. Commercial catches, recruitment, fishing mortality, and spawning Catch (2017) = 46 340 ( ~ 99.6% directed fishery; discarding negligible) Mixing with North Sea herring in Division 3a and eastern part of Subarea 4

Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivisions 20-24) This stock was benchmarked in 2018 Better retrospective pattern. Better representation of the temporal development of fishing mortality. New survey indices - better coverage of younger age-classes of the stock. The historic perception of SSB and recruitment have been revised downwards. Figure 2 Herring in subdivisions 20 24, spring spawners. Historical assessment results; orange lines represent the most recent assessment following the benchmark in 2018.

Western Baltic spring spawning herring (subdivisions 20-24) catch options Assumptions for 2018 Variable Value Notes F ages 3 6 (2018) 0.30 Catch constraint SSB (2018) 104 169 Catch constraint R age 0 (2018) 1 368 458 Geometric mean 2012 2016 R age 0 (2019) 1 368 458 Geometric mean 2012 2016 Total catch (2018) 38 354 Agreed EU Norway catch options (EU Norway, 2016), including an assumed 46% transfer (22 276 t) of the C-fleet TAC to the North Sea (in tonnes). Utilization of the TAC in 2018 of 100% for the F-fleet, 54% for the C-fleet, 46% for the D-fleet, and a small catch of western Baltic springspawning herring in the A-fleet (based on the average of 2015-2017, see table 8 for definition of fleets). Ratios between the North Sea and western Baltic herring stocks in Division 3.a and Subarea 4 are based on the average proportions in the 2015 2017 catches.

The highest F that brings SSB above Blim in 2021 will be F = 0.1 with a yield of 12 776 tonnes in 2019. This will carry a higher risk of not achieving Blim than zero catch in 2019 and 2020. All catch scenarios, including zero catch, result in SSB remaining below Blim in 2020. There has been a change in perception of the status of the stock after the benchmark in 2018 mainly due to a revision of Blim Recent recruitment has been declining and recruitment in 2016 and 2017 have been the weakest in the time-series. To explore the potential development of the stock, projections until 2021 with different low F scenarios (where F2020 = F2019) Spawning-tock biomass is expected to remain just below Blim with a fishing mortality of zero.

Basis Total catch (2019) F 3-6 (2019) SSB* (2019) SSB* (2020) % SSB change ** % advice change *** ICES advice basis MSY approach: zero catch 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% Other scenarios MAP (2018)^: F = F MSY SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger 26 849 0.22 95 790 93 555-2.3% -22% MAP (2018)^: F = F MSY lower (SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger ) 19 289 0.15 96 445 100 319 4.0% -44% MAP (2018)^: F = F MSY upper (SSB 2018 /MSY B trigger ) 32 149 0.26 95 309 88 869-6.8% -7.1% F MSY 37 118 0.31 94 840 84 275-11.1% 7.2% F = F pa 41 178 0.35 94 418 80 704-14.5% 19.0% F = F lim 50 711 0.45 93 433 72 478-22% 46% SSB (2020) = B lim ^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% SSB (2020) = B pa^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% F = F 2018 35 869 0.30 94 959 85 373-10.1% 3.6% MAP (2016)^^^: F = F MSY SSB y-1 / MSY MAP B trigger 36 391 0.30 94 910 85 158-10.3% 5.1% MAP (2016)^^^: F = F MSY.lower SSB y-1 / MSY MAP B trigger 27 188 0.22 95 760 93 262-2.6% -21% MAP (2016)^^^: F = F MSY.upper SSB y-1 / MSY MAP B trigger 44906 0.39 94 067 77 788-17.3% 30% F = 0 {SSB 2021 = 147 941} ^^^^ 0 0 97 975 117 962 20% -100% F = 0.05 {SSB 2021 = 134 648} ^^^^ 6 540 0.05 97 462 111 782 14.7% -81% F = 0.1 {SSB 2021 = 122 673} ^^^^ 12 776 0.1 96 951 105 941 9.3% -63% F = 0.15 {SSB 2021 = 111 881} ^^^^ 18 724 0.15 96 443 100 422 4.1% -46%

Herring: information on catch opportunities by fleet and area Area where WBSS are caught Fleet Fisheries WBSS 2017 NSAS 2017 catch (t) catch (t) Division 3.a C Directed herring fisheries with purse-seiners and trawlers 19023 7404 D Bycatches of herring caught in the small-meshed fisheries 172 196 Subdivisions 22 24 F All herring fisheries in subdivisions 22 24. 26513 0 Subarea 4 A Directed herring fisheries with purse-seiners and trawlers 632 - Total area C,D,F,A All 46340 7600

A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet Herring: information on catch opportunities by fleet and area Agreed TAC-setting procedures: o North Sea: MSY approach not EU-Norway Long-Term Management Strategy o Division 3a (directed fishery, fleet C): EU-Norway agreed TAC-setting procedure o Division 3a (industrial fishery, fleet D): Bycatch ceiling o Subdivisions 22-24 (F fleet): TAC set at (1/2) x ICES advice for WBSS stock based on MSY approach opportunities by fleet and area are interlinked and have to be calculated simultaneously ICES currently has no method for fleet-based MSY advice and other catch distribution scenarios could be provided on request from clients. Basis Fages (wr) 2 6 F values by fleet and total Fages (wr) 0 1 A-fleet **** %TAC Fages (wr) 0 1 Fages (wr) 0 1 Fages (wr) 2 6 Fages (wr) 0 1 A-fleet Catches by fleet B- fleet C- fleet # D- fleet # Total stock catch SSB 2019 Biomass* SSB 2020 ** %SSB change *** % Advice change ^ MSY approach^^ 0.22 0.049 0 0 0.216 0.05 291040 20532 0 0 311572 1162495 1156221-17.2-51.5-39.8 Other scenarios EU Norway Management strategy 0.195 0.049 0 0 0.195 0.050 266494 20532 0 0 287026 1178944 1185543-16 -55.6-44.6 F = F 0.259 0.049 0 0 0.260 0.050 341513 20532 0 0 362045 1128363 1097826-19.6-43.1-30.1

Central Baltic herring stock (subdivisions 25-29 & 32, excluding G. Riga) SSB above MSY Btrigger since 2006 F has been above FMSY since 2015 Recruitment in 2015 the highest observed Catch (2017) = 202 517 t (mainly pelagic trawls; discarding negligible) * Some catch of Central Baltic herring stock occurs in Gulf of Riga, and viceversa

Central Baltic herring stock (subdivisions 25-29 & 32, excluding G. Riga) A high variability between years in the survey index, in particular in the last years due to the large year class of 2014, is the likely cause of the downward revision of SSB and upward revision of fishing mortality for the recent years Figure 2 Herring in subdivisions 25 29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga. Historical assessment results (final-year recruitment estimates included).

Central Baltic herring stock (subdivisions 25-29 & 32, excluding G. Riga) Catch options, assumptions for 2018 F ages 3 6 (2018) Variable Value Notes SSB (2018) 808715 R age1 (2018) 0.35 Based on a TAC constraint* 17383000 RCT3 estimate. R age1 (2019 2020) 14843754 Geometric mean 1988 2016. Total catch (2018) 262935 TAC constraint* * TAC constraint in 2018: EU share 229 355 tonnes + Russian quota 29 500 tonnes + central Baltic herring stock caught in Gulf of Riga 4 340 tonnes (mean 2012 2016) Gulf of Riga herring stock caught in central Baltic Sea 260 tonnes (mean 2012 2016) = 262 935 tonnes.

Central Baltic herring stock (subdivisions Central Baltic herring 25-29 stock & 32, excluding G. Riga) Basis Total catch (2019) F total (2019) SSB (2019) SSB (2020) % SSB change * % Advice change ** ICES advice basis EU MAP^^: F MSY 155333 0.22 735005 716594-3% -42% EU MAP^^: F lower 115591 0.16 750157 766194 2% -42%*** EU MAP^^: F upper 192787 0.28 720202 670935-7% -42%^ Other scenarios ICES MSY approach: F MSY 155333 0.22 735005 716594-3% -42% 20% decrease in TAC ^^^ 210703 0.31 712928 649472-9% -21% F = 0 0 0 791368 916969 16% -100% F = F pa 263813 0.41 690577 587317-15% -1% F = F lim 318710 0.52 666102 525436-21% 19% SSB (2020) = B lim 408365 0.73 622595 429752-31% 53% SSB (2020) = B pa 254003 0.39 694799 598630-14% -5% SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger 254003 0.39 694799 598630-14% -5% F = F 2018 232886 0.35 703741 623242-11% -13% The decreased catch advice is due to a change in the perception of the stock size. The stock size was downscaled and fishing mortality was upscaled due to the low survey indices in the last two years. There is also a downward revision of the 2014 year class.

Herring: information on catch opportunities by management area A possible way to set TACs by management area (SDs 25-29 & 32, excluding G. Riga; G. Riga) consistent with the stock advice is by assuming for 2018: o Central Baltic herring caught in G. Riga: 4363 t (average of 2013-2017) o G. Riga herring caught in Subdvision 28.2: 225 t (average of 2013-2017) The corresponding TAC in the central Baltic management area for 2019 would be calculated as 155 333 tonnes + 251 tonnes 4363 tonnes = 151 221 tonnes.

Gulf of Riga herring stock (Subdivision 28.1) * SSB above MSY B trigger since late 1980s * F close to F MSY since 2008, generally above * High and low recruitment in recent years Catch (2017) = 30865 t (~ 77% trawl, 23% trapnets ; discarding negligible) * Some catch of Central Baltic herring stock occurs in Gulf of Riga, and viceversa

Gulf of Riga herring stock (Subdivision 28.1) ICES advises that when the EU multiannual plan (MAP) is applied, catches in 2019 that correspond to the F ranges in the plan are between 20 664 tonnes and 31 237 tonnes. According to the MAP, catches higher than those corresponding to FMSY (26 932 tonnes) can only be taken under conditions specified in the MAP. This advice applies to all catches from the stock in subdivisions 28.1 and 28.2. Basis Total catch(2019) F total (2019) SSB (2019) SSB(2020) % SSBchange ** % Advice change *** ICES advice basis EU MAP*: F MSY 26932 0.32 91669 92404 0.8% 8.1% EU MAP*: F lower 20664 0.24 93020 99670 7.1% 6.5%^ EU MAP*: F upper 31237 0.38 90698 87477-3.6% 7.0%^^ Other scenarios ICES MSY approach: 26932 0.32 91669 92404 0.8% 8.1% F MSY F = 0 0 0 97030 124349 28.2% -100.0% F = F pa 47115 0.63 86754 69785-19.6% 89.1% F = F lim 59942 0.88 83040 56105-32.4 140.6% SSB (2020) = B lim 75061 1.25 77788 40800-47.5% 201.2% SSB (2020) = B pa 58989 0.86 83335 57100-31.5% 136.7% SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger 56232 0.80 84172 60000-28.7% 125.7% F = F 2018 24584 0.29 92183 95113 3.2% -1.3% Assumptions 2018: TAC constraint + stock catch in Central Baltic catch of Central Baltic herring in Gulf of Riga

Herring: information on catch opportunities by management area A possible way to set TACs by management area (SDs 25-29 & 32, excluding G. Riga; G. Riga) consistent with the stock advice is by assuming for 2018: o Central Baltic herring caught in G. Riga: 4363 t (average of 2013-2017) o G. Riga herring caught in Subdvision 28.2: 225 t (average of 2013-2017) The corresponding TAC in the Gulf of Riga management area for 2019 would be calculated as 26932 tonnes 251 tonnes + 4363 tonnes = 31044 tonnes..

Gulf of Riga herring stock (Subdivision 28.1) The EC has requested ICES to identify if intra-specific density dependence is known to occur for Gulf of Riga herring based on existing, updated scientific evidence (EC, 2018). In the short term this stock is not expected to increase to biomasses outside the range estimated by the assessment in recent years. Mean weights in the stock have also been stable in recent years suggesting little evidence for declining growth due to intra-species interactions. The stock has been declining in recent years and the direct and indirect effects on other stocks are within the range of what would have occurred in previous years without observing significant detrimental inter-species effects. Therefore ICES does not consider that the evidence is sufficient to justify an application of the upper FMSY range based on the condition; to avoid serious harm to a stock caused by intra- or inter-species stock dynamics, set out in the MAP.

Herring in Subdivisions 30 & 31 (Gulf of Bothnia) Two stocks merged last year at benchmark SSB) has decreased in the last five years but above MSY B trigger F increasing trend and now above F MSY High and low recruitment in recent years Maximum sustainable yield F MSY Fishing pressure Stock size 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 Above MSY B trigger Above trigger Catches 2017 104 358 tonnes (96% trawl, 3.3% trap nets) Precautionary approach F pa, F lim Increased risk B pa, B lim Full reproductive capacity Management plan F MGT - - - Not applicable SSB MGT - - - Not applicable

Herring in Subdivisions 30 & 31 (Gulf of Bothnia) ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2019 should be no more than 88 703 tonnes. Basis Catch (2019) F total (2019) SSB (2019) SSB (2020) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change *** ICES advice basis MSY approach: F MSY 88703 0.21 414047 394945-5% 5% -7% Other scenarios F = 0 0 0 427665 499703 17% -100% -100% F = F pa 96179 0.23 412682 386391-6% 14% 1% F = F lim 117632 0.29 408765 361564-12% 39% 23% SSB (2020) = B lim 264259 0.84 376633 202272-46% 212% 177% SSB (2020) = B pa 189165 0.52 394597 283180-28% 124% 98% SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger 189165 0.52 394597 283180-28% 124% 98% F = F 2018 84133 0.198 414846 399991-4% -1% -12% F = proposed F MSY lower ^ 65662 0.151 418125 421393 1% 22% -31%^^^ F = proposed F MSY upper ^^ 88703 0.21 414047 394945-5% 5% -7% Assumptions 2018: Catch constraint (84 599t); F(2018) = 0.198

Sprat in subdivisions 22-32 SSB above MSY B trigger since early 1990s increasing F has declined in recent years and is close to F MSY Recruitment: last 3 years close to average Catch (2017) = 285 701 t

Sprat in subdivisions 22-32 ICES advises that when the EU multiannual plan (MAP) is applied, catches in 2019 that correspond to the F ranges in the plan are between 225 752 tonnes and 311 523 tonnes. According to the MAP, catches higher than those corresponding to FMSY (301 125 tonnes) can only be taken under conditions specified in the MAP, whilst the entire range is considered precautionary when applying the ICES advice rule. Basis Total catch (2019) F total (2019) SSB (2019) SSB (2020) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change *** ICES advice basis EU MAP^^: F MSY 301125 0.26 1424129 1386388-2.7-1.24 3.2 EU MAP^^: F MSY lower 225752 0.19 1455973 1476851 1.43-26 3.0^ EU MAP^^: F MSY upper 311523 0.27 1419656 1374084-3.2 2.2 3.2^ Other scenarios MSY approach = F MSY 301125 0.26 1424129 1386388-2.7-1.24 3.2 F = 0 0 0 1546000 1764000 14-100 -100 F = F pa 361745 0.32 1396992 1314342-5.9 19 24 F = F lim 429350 0.39 1366673 1235411-9.6 41 47 SSB (2020) = B lim 602596 1.63 521409 410201-21 98 107 SSB (2020) = B pa 597889 1.16 707028 569675-19 96 105 SSB (2020) = MSY B trigger 597889 1.16 707028 569675-19 96 105 F = F 2018^^^ 304000 0.26 1423000 1383000-2.8-0.30 4.2 Assumptions : Catch constraint of 304 900 t in 2018 (EU quota of 262 300 t and Russian quota of 42 600 t). F(2018) = 0.26

Sprat in subdivisions 22-32 ICES recommends that a spatial management plan is developed for the fisheries that catch sprat, with the aim to improve cod condition. The abundance of cod in subdivisions 25 26 is high compared to other areas in the Baltic and the cod condition is considered to be limited by food availability. Sprat and herring are important food items for cod (especially sprat), but the present high biomass of the two prey stocks is mainly distributed outside the distribution area for cod. The relative catch proportion of sprat in the main cod distribution area has since 2010 increased from 37% of the total catch to 53% in 2012 2017. Any increase in fishing pressure on sprat in the main cod distribution area may deteriorate the feeding condition for cod as prey availability decreases. Sprat (BIAS 2017 Q4) Cod (BITS 2017 Q4) Herring (BIAS 2017 Q4)

Salmon and sea trout 31 * Salmon in subdivisions 22-31 30 * Salmon in subdvision 32 * Sea trout in subdivisions 22-32 29 32 20 27 28.1 28.2 21 22 23 24 25 26

Assessment Units Byskeälven Skellefteälven Vindelälven Umeälven Lögdeälven Ångermanälven Indalsälven Kalixälven Luleälven Piteälven Åbyälven 2 Råneälven Baltic salmon Tornionjoki 1 Simojoki Iijoki Oulujoki Two TAC areas: SD 22-31 and SD 32 Salmon spawn in rivers and spend the beginning of their life in rivers As smolts they go to sea, where they spend 1 or more years feeding and growing until they return to rivers to spawn Germany Sweden Odra Drawa Ljungan Emån Mörrumsån 4 Ljusnan Dalälven Poland Vistula Bothnian Sea 3 Baltic Main Basin Saka Kokemäenjoki Irbe Russia Venta Lithuania Neumunas, Minja Finland Gulf of Finland Keila Vasalemma 5 Salaca Gauja 6 Estonia Latvia Daugava Luga Narva Neva Russia 0 100 200 km Sea fisheries catch salmon from several river stocks ICES uses 6 assessment units (AU), based on biological and genetic characteristics of the stocks Stocks in same AU have similar migration patterns and are subject to same fisheries and could be managed in the same way There is an analytical assessment for AUs 1-4; for AUs 5 and 6, assessment based on available indicators and expert judgement MSY reference point: 0.75 x PSPC (potential smolt production capacity)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of Salmon 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia Sweden

Salmon in subdivisions 22-31

Salmon in subdivisions 22-31 Smolt Production in AUs 1-4 (horizontal line is PSPC): Estimated pre-fishery abundance in the sea Smolt Production in AU 5 (relative to PSPC): Fishing pressure at sea:

Salmon in subdivisions 22-31 Catch Scenarios: Scenario Total commercial catch at sea F of commercial catch Commercial catch at sea in subdivisions 22 31 in 2019 Unwanted catch Wanted (dead + alive) catch Reported Undersized Seal damaged Wanted catch Unreported Wanted catch Misreported 1 116.0 0.07 63.3 2.9 8.8 7.3 33.7 2 139.2 0.08 76.0 3.5 10.6 8.7 40.4 3 92.8 0.06 50.7 2.3 7.0 5.8 27.0 4 162.8 0.10 88.9 4.0 12.4 10.2 47.3 5 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario Total sea catch (comm. + recr.) 2019 F of total catch at sea Recreational catch at sea 2019 River catch 2019 Spawners 2019 1 148.4 0.09 32.4 65.1 187.2 2 171.6 0.11 32.4 62.6 179.9 3 125.2 0.08 32.4 67.5 194.5 4 195.2 0.12 32.4 60.0 171.7 5 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 293.0

Salmon in subdivisions 22-31 ICES advises that when the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach is applied, total commercial sea catch in 2019 should be no more than 116 000 salmon. Applying the same catch proportions estimated from observations in the 2017 fishery, the catch in 2019 would be split as follows: 11 600 unwanted catch (10%; previously referred to as discards) and 104 400 wanted catch (90%; i.e. 55% reported, 6% unreported, and 29% misreported). This would correspond to commercial landings (the reported wanted catch) of 63 300 salmon. ICES advises that management of salmon fisheries should be based on the status of individual river stocks. Fisheries on mixed stocks that cannot target only river stocks with a healthy status, present particular threats to wild stocks that do not have a healthy status. Fisheries in open-sea areas or coastal waters are more likely to pose a threat to depleted stocks than fisheries in estuaries and in healthy wild and reared rivers. Effort in these mixed-stock fisheries has been reduced to low levels and should not increase. The salmon stocks of rivers Rickleån, Sävarån, Öreälven, Lögdeälven, and Testeboån in the Gulf of Bothnia, Emån in southern Sweden, and all rivers in the southeastern Main Basin (AU 5) are especially weak. The offshore and coastal fisheries in the Main Basin catch all these weak salmon stocks on their feeding migration. The coastal fishery in the Åland Sea and Gulf of Bothnia catches salmon from weak stocks from northern rivers on their spawning migration. These stocks need longer-term, stock-specific rebuilding measures, including fisheries restrictions in estuaries and rivers, habitat restoration, and removal of physical barriers. For these weak stocks exploitation should not increase along their feeding and spawning migration routes at sea.

Annual production (in thousands of fish) of wild and released smolts in the Gulf of Finland.

Salmon in Subdivision 32 (Gulf of Finland) The three wild salmon stocks: Smolt Production (relative to potential smolt production capacity; PSPC) Seven Estonian mixed salmon stocks: Two Russian mixed stocks:

Salmon in Subdivision 32 (Gulf of Finland) ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches in 2019 should be no more than 11 800 salmon. This assumes that the amount of reared salmon released in 2018 is similar to previous years. Applying the same catch proportions estimated to have occurred in 2017, this would correspond to commercial landings (the reported wanted catch) of 9676 salmon. Fisheries-related mortality on wild salmon from all wild and mixed (hatchery wild) rivers in the Gulf of Finland should be as low as possible. Most of the salmon in the Gulf of Finland are of reared origin. Measures to focus the fishing effort on reared salmon should be implemented. Such measures could include seasonal regulations and/or relocation of coastal fisheries away from sites likely to be on the migration paths of Gulf of Finland wild salmon. Fin-clipping of reared salmon stocks in all countries would allow wild salmon to be distinguished from reared salmon, as well as helping to identify wild salmon locations and fisheries on wild salmon. Relocation of fisheries away from rivers and rivers mouths supporting wild or mixed stocks, should be maintained. Wild salmon returning to rivers should be protected from poaching. Effort in the salmon fishery in the Main Basin (subdivisions 24 29) should not increase, as wild salmon from the Gulf of Finland use the Main Basin as a feeding area.

Baltic - Overview Stock Status summary Baltic 2018

Baltic - Overview Pressure of fishing activity Reproductive capacity MSFD evaluation Baltic 2018

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