COLOMBIA: STABILITY FOR FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT José Darío Uribe E. Governor Central Bank of Colombia Lisbon, June 19, 2012
Firstly, during the last decade d the Colombian economy seems to have entered a path of high and sustained growth, with greater resilience against adverse external shocks. Secondly, the monetary policy framework adopted since 1999 has been particularly successful in attaining the inflation targets year after year, and maintaining inflation rates low, stable and predictable, whilst allowing for a countercyclical monetary policy when facing negative external shocks. Thirdly, central bank s contribution to the safe and efficient functioning of the local payment and settlement systems has allowed for an efficient transmission of monetary policy within an operational and legal framework that supports other efforts to attain financial stability.
Graph 1 % of GDP 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Growth GDP 2001-2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Latin America and the Caribbean Colombia Average 1970-2011 Source: DANE and IMF
Graph 2 Colombia 4,5% GDP Average Growth 4,3% 4,0% 35% 3,5% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,7% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 00% 0,0% 1980-1990 1991-2000 2001-2011 Source: DANE
Graph 3 (US$ millions) 2.500.000 Latin America (LATAM) USD Millions GDP 2011* 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 - Brasil Mé éxico Arge ntina Colo mbia Venez zuela Chile Perú Ecu uador Uru guay Bo olivia Source: IMF ( * projected)
Graph 4 GNI pe er capita, Atla as Method (cu urrent US$) 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Gross National Income Per-Capita Atlas Methodology (Current USD) Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR 2010 Source: Calculations by Banco de la República based on DANE statistics
28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% Graph 5 Investment and Exports % of GDP 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: DANE Total Exports (%GDP) Investment (%GDP) Average 1970-2011 Average 1970-2011
Graph 6 Source: IMF
Graph 7 7,0% Colombia GDP Average Growth 6,0% 5,9% 5,0% 5,0% 40% 4,0% 3,0% 2,6% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 2004-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 Source: DANE
Graph 8 Source: IMF and Banco de la República
Graph 9 Terms of Trade (Index 1994=100) 200 (Index 1994=100) 175 150 125 100 75 feb 80 feb 82 feb 84 feb 86 feb 88 feb 90 feb 92 feb 94 feb 96 feb 98 feb 00 feb 02 feb 04 feb 06 feb 08 feb 10 feb 12 Source: Banco de la República. Terms of Trade Average Source: Banco de la República
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Graph 10 Inflation rate (annual change) 22,1% 3% 5% 0% 2008 2010 2012* 2014* 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: DANE ( * projected) TOTAL CPI AVERAGE 72 00
Graph 11 7% Inflation Expectations 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% jun-08 sep-08 dic-08 mar-09 jun-09 sep-09 dic-09 mar-10 jun-10 sep-10 dic-10 mar-11 jun-11 sep-11 dic-11 mar-12 5 years Survey 1 year Source: MEC, SEN and Banco de la República
Graph 12 Peso/USD Colombian exchange rate 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 abr-07 jul-07 oct-07 ene-08 abr-08 jul-08 oct-08 ene-09 abr-09 jul-09 oct-09 ene-10 abr-10 jul-10 oct-10 ene-111 abr-111 jul-111 oct-111 ene-12 abr-12 Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República
10 8 6 4 2 Graph 13 Policy and market interest rate 28 24 20 16 12 ene-12 abr-07 jul-07 oct-07 ene-08 abr-08 jul-08 oct-08 ene-09 abr-09 jul-09 oct-09 ene-10 abr-10 jul-10 oct-10 ene-11 abr-11 jul-11 oct-11 abr-12 Overnight Repo Policy Consumption (right side) Mortgage (right side) Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República
Graph 14 Gross Loan Portfolio including Leasing (annual change of weekly data) 30 ) 25 20 15 24,68 19,71 17,66 16,85 10 5 0 5 Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Loan M/N Commercial Household Consumption Mortgage Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República
Graph 15 Composition of Colombian Exports 60.000 50.000 Total exports (US$ millions) 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 44% 38% 38% 43% 56% 62% 62% 57% 43% 57% 44% 56% 43% 57% 42% 58% 50% 50% 53% 63% 47% 37% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Others Mining goods 69% 31% Source: dane - dian
Graph 16 6% 4% Mining GDP 2011 (Sectoral distribution) 20% Coal Oil Metallic minerals Non-metallic minerals 71% Source: dane - dian
Graph 17 Oil production in Colombia 1.600 25% 2015: 1250 mbd 2018: 1450 mbd 20% 1.400 15% 10% Var % anual 5% 1.200 1.000 800 0% 5% 10% arriles diarios 600 400 15% Miles de b 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Producción Var % anual Source: ministerio de minas dgpm ministerio de hacienda
120 Graph 18 100 Oil Export Volume 80 US$ / barrel 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 60 40 20 0 2020 2019 Thousand barrels per day 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Export volume Colombian export prices Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Graph 19 Coal Production in Colombia 180 30% Millon nes de tonelad das 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2015: 128 mill ton 25% 2020: 20% 160 mill ton 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% Var % anua l 20 10% 0 15% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Producción Var % anual Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Graph 20 Coal Export Volume 120 100 160 140 120 80 US$ / ton 60 100 80 60 40 20 0 Millions of tons 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Export volume (millions of tons) Colombian export prices Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
35.000 30.000 Graph 21 Oil Export Value 100% 80% 25.000 60% US S$ Millions 20.000 15.000 10.000 40% 20% 0% Annual grow wth 5.000 20% 0 40% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Export value (US$ millions) Annual growth Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Graph 22 Coal Export Value 16.000 60% 14.000 50% millions US$ 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% Annual gr owth 2000 2.000 20% 0 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Export value (US$ millions) Annual growth Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Graph 23 (US$ m) 14.000 Financial account 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA
Graph 24 Direct Investment 15.000 (Million dollars) 10.000 5.000 0-5.000-10.000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Colombian investment abroad Foreing investment in Colombia Source: BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA
Graph 25 Fiscal revenues resulting from the energy sector (% of GDP) CNG Revenues** Royalties CNG Revenues** + Royalties Source: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Estimates: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Projected.
Graph 26 Expected savings from energy related revenues by the central Government and territorial entities CNG Revenues** Royalties CNG Revenues** + Royalties Fuente: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Cálculos: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Cifras proyectadas. Source: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Estimates: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Projected.
Graph 27 Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 49,0 45,0 41,0 37,0 45,9 45,6 41,7 40,8 38,3 38,7 36,2 36,8 37,9 37,6 37,5 35,8 34,7 33,0 29,0 25,0 27,9 26,7 21,0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: dgpm ministerio de hacienda y crédito publico
2,0 1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 Graph 28 Primary balance of the central government (% GDP) 1,1 1,4 0,7 0,6 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,7 0,5 0,3 0,6 0,8 1,5 1,1 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,0 2,0 2,0 1,6 2,9 2,5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público. Excludes the costs of financial restructuring and weather emergency.