REBOUND EFFECT FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT AND ENERGY SERVICES IN THE UK IAEE Euopean Confeence, Venna, Septembe 3-6, 2017 Mona Chtns (Unvesty of Suey) Roge Fouquet (LSE) Steve Soell (Unvesty of Sussex)
Outlne Rebound mechansms Data ovevew Model Results Dscusson
Rebound mechansms fo households Total Rebound=Dect Rebound+Indect Rebound Indect Rebound Lowe heatng cost and fuel blls Lghtng Moe o less emssons Less emssons Lowe unnng cost fo heatng Hghe oom tempeatue o leavng the heatng on fo longe Dect Rebound Moe emssons
Measung enegy sevce pce and Consumpton Data Souces (e.g. BEIS, ONS) p E Enegy Pce (e.g. pence pe kwh) Enegy Effcency (e.g. lumen-hous pe kwh) E Enegy Consumpton (e.g. TWh fo lghtng) p S pe / Enegy Sevce Pce (e.g. pe lumen-hou) S E Enegy Sevce Consumpton (e.g. mllons of lumen-hous)
Enegy sevces n ths pesentaton Lghtng Heatng Wet and cold applances Electoncs and computng Cookng Ca 5
1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Lghtng, Heatng, Wet & cold, Cookng, Ca (1964=100) Electoncs & computng (1964=100) Aveage effcency by enegy sevce n the UK 1964-2015 (ndex, 1964=100) 400% 1400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 1200% 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% 0% 0% Lghtng Heatng Wet & cold applances Cookng Ca tanspot Electoncs & computng 6
Lghtng and Applances, Cookng, Heatng, Ca (1964=100) 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Lghtng, Heatng, We & cold, Cookng, Ca (1964=100) Electoncs & computng ( 1964=100) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Real pce of enegy sevces (ndex, 1964=100) 0 0 Lghtng Heatng Cookng Electoncs & computng Wet & cold applances Ca tanspot 200 180 160 140 Real pce of enegy fo sevces (ndex, 1964=100) 120 100 80 60 Lghtng and Applances Cookng Heatng Ca tanspot 7
Lghtng, Heatng, Wet & cold, Cookng, Ca (1964=100) 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Lghtng, Wet & cold, Cookng, Heatng, Ca (1964=100) Electoncs & computng (1964=100) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Electoncs & computng (1964=100) Consumpton of enegy sevces pe equvalsed peson (ndex, 1964=100) Lghtng Wet & cold applances Cookng Heatng Ca tanspot Electoncs & computng 450 1000 Enegy consumpton pe equvalsed peson (ndex, 1964=100) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Lghtng Wet & cold applances Heatng Cookng Ca tanspot Electoncs & computng 8
Total ebound estmaton (n tems of CO2) Total Rebound = whee: ps ps u s s ( s ) ps ps ( s Dect Indect ( s ) u x x w w : own-pce elastcty of sevce s ( ) : coss-pce elastcty of sevce wth espect to sevce s u : CO2 ntensty of sevce u s : CO2 ntensty of sevce s w : budget shae of sevce w s : budget shae of sevce s ) ( )
Two stage budgetng model Household expendtue Stage 1 Enegy sevces Tanspot Othe goods and sevces Lghtng Ca Stage 2 Heatng Othe tanspot Wet and cold applances Electoncs and computng Cookng
Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) Stage 1: w t whee: z w =budget shae of categoy P z =pce of categoy z x=total expendtue pe equvalsed peson zt P=Laspeyes-lke pce ndex j ln p ln( ln P x t L t / P ) t w 0 ln z p t w z z t1 t t, z: 1, 2, 3 Addng up: Symmety: Homogenety: 1, 0, 0 0 z, z z z 0 z
Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) Stage 2: w ln p ln( x / P ) w t t t whee: j w =budget shae of sevce P j =pce of sevce j j jt ln P L t t w 0 t ln p t x =total expendtue on sevces pe equvalsed peson P =Laspeyes-lke pce ndex j j j 1 t, j: 1,, 4 Addng up: Symmety: Homogenety: 1, 0, j 0, j 0 j j j 0 1
Elastctes fo two-stage budgetng model Combned elastctes of stages 1 and 2 to obtan total pce and expendtue elastctes fo each enegy and tanspot sevce (Edgeton 1997). Wthn goup elastctes: Income elastcty Uncompensated pce elastcty Total/between goup elastctes: Income elastcty E e E E z 1 w z w w ( ) E z z s: Konecke s delta equal to one when =s and zeo elsewhee. Uncompensated pce elastcty e j ze( )j E( )w( z ) j [ z e( )( z ) ] UK household annual tme sees data 1964-2015 Iteatve Seemngly Unelated Regessons (ISUR) method fo system estmaton
Estmated aveage elastctes Total expendtue elastctes fo enegy sevces Expendtue elastcty Lghtng Heatng Wet & cold applances Electoncs & computng Cookng Ca 0.96 1.29 1.10 0.99 0.81 0.89 Total pce elastctes fo enegy sevces Pce elastcty Lghtng Heatng Wet & cold applances Electoncs & computng Cookng Ca Lghtng Heatng Wet & cold applances Electoncs & computng Cookng -0.936 0.381 0.088 0.059 0.036-0.037 0.040-0.696 0.065 0.031 0.044-0.050 0.050 0.343-0.922 0.044 0.049-0.043 0.061 0.438 0.098-0.939 0.064-0.039 0.037 0.382 0.084 0.048-0.917-0.032-0.004-0.03-0.006-0.003-0.004-0.54 Ca
Estmated aveage ebound effects Rebound effects between enegy and tanspot sevces Lghtng Heatng Wet & cold applances Electoncs & computng Cookng Lghtng 93.6% -39.4% -8.0% -5.1% -3.7% 1.8% Heatng -3.9% 69.6% -5.7% -3.8% -3.9% 1.4% Wet & cold applances -5.5% -39.3% 92.2% -5.2% -5.2% 1.8% Electoncs & computng -7.0% -35.6% -8.3% 93.9% -5.7% 2.0% Cookng -3.6% -42.7% -8.0% -5.5% 91.7% 1.9% Ca 0.7% 9.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 54.2% Dect, ndect and total ebound effects fo enegy and tanspot sevces Dect ebound Indect ebound (enegy and tanspot sevces only) Total ebound Lghtng 93.6% -54.3% 39.31% Heatng 69.6% -15.9% 53.68% Wet & cold applances 92.2% -53.3% 38.92% Electoncs & computng 94.0% -54.5% 39.40% Cookng 91.7% -57.8% 33.91% Ca 54.2% 13.1% 67.26% Ca
Dscusson Data assumptons and lmtatons No backfe, but ebound s not neglgble and should not be neglected Indect ebound plays an mpotant ole Dect ebound s nsenstve to the estmaton method/vaables n the AIDS model Indect ebound of non-enegy goods s neglected Aveage ebound ove the sample peod ebound ove the sample peod Compason wth ebound based on enegy/tanspot fuel demand
REBOUND EFFECT FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT AND ENERGY SERVICES IN THE UK IAEE Euopean Confeence, Venna, Septembe 3-6, 2017 Mona Chtns (Unvesty of Suey) Roge Fouquet (LSE) Steve Soell (Unvesty of Sussex)