The Next Decade of Digital Strategic Responses to Technology Disruption Dr Stefan Hajkowicz www.csiro.au
The Next Decade of Digital Strategic Responses to Technology Disruption 2. Automate 4. Navigate 6. Mitigate 1. Accelerate 8. Cogitate 3. Differentiate 7. Gravitate 5. Innovate
1. Accelerate Speed up technology development, adoption and adaptation
Thousand Terabytes Data Volumes 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband Jun 2010 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013 Jun 2014 Dec 2014 Jun 2015 And we d need another 75m to show you the 2025 forecast. According to IBM The world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years.
1971 1974 1982 1989 1995 1999 2003 2008 2012 Transistors (millions) Computing Speed 1600 1400 1200 1000 Moore s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years And then there s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster 800 600 400 200 0 Jury s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?
The Internet of Things Metcalfe's Law Value of a network = n 2 2006 2 Billion Devices 2015 15 Billion Devices 2020 200 Billion Devices 225 times more functionality 40,000 times more functionality Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia
Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what day is the pond completely covered? Image: 7 Pixabay Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Pond Coverage (Square Metres) Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered. 600,000 500,000 Frog realises what s happening & tries to respond 100% Coverage 400,000 300,000 200,000 Frog Suspects Something Happening 50% Coverage 100,000 0 Frog Doesn t Know Anything is Happening Yet 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 8 Image: Pixabay
2. Automate Use robots for rules-based, repetitive and routine tasks and extend the reach of artificial intelligence. 9
Automation and Artificial Intelligence IBM s Watson Google s Driverless Car Source: IBM, Google
The Reach of Robotics Source: Wired Magazine Wall-Ye VIN Robot Image Source: AFP
Towards Emotionally Intelligent Machines? CSIRO S WE FEEL SOFTWARE EMOTIENT BIOSENSORS Unclassified Surprise Fear Anger Sadness Love Joy 19,068 Emotional Tweets in 14 Hours from Brisbane Source: CSIRO, Emotient
Task Automation and Job Replacement More than 5 million Aussie Jobs [40% of workforce] gone in 10-15 years - CEDA Report, Australia s Future Workforce, 2015 By one popular estimate 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don t yet exist - World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs and Skills, 2016
3. Differentiate Learn to race with the machine (not against it); understand your niche in a connected business ecosystem Otonaroid robot with real person displayed at Miraikan Science Museum in Tokyo. Photo: Miraikan sourced via News Robitics
What Jobs do People Get? Research Finds that 40% - 50% of all Australian Jobs Will Be Replaced by Computers and Robots in the Coming 10-20 Years. So What do people do After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in Robots don t do unstructured. But we can also change the supply chain 20 mins. Image source: Su-Star The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
Employment ('000s) Photographers Versus Lab Staff 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Australian Photographic Industry Photographers Developers/printers 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data Source: ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Digital enables fewer employees to generate greater market value Company Employees Market Cap Market Cap Per Employee Walmart 2.2 million $265 billion $120,000 Amazon 154,100 $173 billion $1.1 million Facebook 9,199 $202 billion $22 million Instagram (at sale) 13 $1 billion $80 million Nov 2016
Two Perspectives on equality of opportunity in tomorrow s digital economy Tyler Cowen The Average is Over Image: Youtube, Big Think Joseph Stiglitz The Cost of Inequality Image: Time Magazine, Mark Mahaney/Redux 18
4. Navigate Explore and map new economic territory, learn the new hard and soft rules
Ronald Coase Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
The New Platform Economies GLG
New Uber Drivers in the United States A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016 22 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Percent of Value Add to the Economy Emerging Economies in Transition Transition in the Chinese Economy 60 50 40 30 20 10 Industry Services Agriculture 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: World Bank Indicators
5. Innovate Rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational hierarchy
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Coal Price US$ per tonne 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 200 150 Iron Ore Price US$ per tonne 25 100 50 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Wikimedia Commons, Stephen Codrington. Planet Geography 3rd Edition. Flickr, Graeme Churchard. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data
Productivity Index 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 Twenty Years of Productivity in Australia Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics In the long term it s everything - Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Laurate, Economics 92 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger.
The Innovator s Dilemma World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen 27 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Lean & Agile Innovation Fail Fast, Test Often and Keep Trying Build Design Build Design Build Design Test CYCLE 1 CYCLE 2 CYCLE 3 Idea Test Idea Test Idea refine refine refine Small teams that can be fed on 2 (large) pizzas Image source (pizza): Wikimedia, Creative Commons, Jakob Dettner & Rainer Zenz
6. Mitigate Manage the downsides of digital for customers, staff and society 29 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
Cybercrime The Untamed Tiger in the Room 5 million Australians fell victim to cybercrime last year Out of every 10 Australians 6 have been a victim of cybercrime Of all victims 46 percent experienced a cybercrime incident in the past 12 months In 2013 A$1.06 billion was stolen from Australian citizens in cybercrime events The average financial loss per victim in 2013 was A$201 Australian Institute of Criminology
. Information Overload and Digital Exhaustion 31 Future of Work Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson
7. Gravitate Understand and focus on experiences your customers or community seek
The Experience Economy 2.0 Is it really just C 8 H 10 N 4 O 2?
8. Cogitate Free-up time and resources to think deeply, revisit issues and choose wisely
Labour Productivity (USD of GDP Per Hour Worked, Current Prices) Working Smarter (Not Just Harder) A high tech digitally enabled economy rewards intelligence more than brute force Norway 100 80 60 R 2 = 0.65 Sweden Australia 40 20 0 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 Average Hours Worked Per Person Per Week Stockholm, Pixabay Experiments in Sweden, reducing the work week from 8 to 6 hours tested by: Svartedalens elderly care home Internet startup, Brath Filimundus App Developer Stockholm city council Toyota service centre in Gothenburg Data Source: OECD Statistics, Labour productivity levels in the total economy, Data for 34 OECD Countries
The Power of Daydreaming In 1990 J.K. Rowling decided to daydream (not work) on a delayed train journey from Manchester to London. She started writing at Clapham Junction The Power of Daydreaming Glenfinnan viaduct, Scotland, United Kingdom And The Hogwarts Express by JK Rowling
Thank you Data 61 Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Research Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e Stefan.Hajkowicz@csiro.au www.csiro.au