The Case for New Trends in Travel

The Case for New Trends in Travel The Future of Cities and Travel Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Center for urban Transportation Research University of South Florida October 19, 2008

Successful Strategies from Florida

Successful Strategies from Florida

Outline A little theory A little data A little speculation

Disclaimer The level of understanding and the amount of data regarding travel behavior have never been better. Yet it remains difficult to predict human behavior, new technologies, and natural phenomena that may influence the ultimate demand for travel.

Disclaimer We haven t been able to predict Who will win the next election, Which movie or TV show will be popular, What will be the hot Christmas gift, or, Which stocks (if any) will do well next year. Therefore we shouldn t apologize for uncertainty regarding future travel. But we should plan for uncertainty.

A Fundamental Desire to Travel Travel is fundamental to the human desire to interact and socialize. The desire to travel will continue as it has through the history of mankind. Travel enables economic interaction and the transportation of products and is fundamental to the functioning of the economy.

A Fundamental Desire to Travel Growth in income and knowledge fuel the desire to become more specialized in employment, social interactions, and consumption. Income Knowledge Employment Social Interactions Consumption Travel

A Fundamental Desire to Travel People do not necessarily aspire to travel. They do aspire to carryout the economic and social interactions enabled by travel. Planners are torn between providing mobility, minimizing the impacts of mobility, or minimizing mobility.

A Framework for Thinking About Future Travel Economy Security Drivers of Travel Behavior Socio-Economic Conditions Household/Person Characteristics Economic Conditions Behaviors/Priorities Business Conditions Demand Factors Family Structure Institutional Structures Legal/Political Climate Culture/Values Technology Etc. Land Use Density Mix Urban Form Urban Design Activity Scale/Specialization Contiguousness Transportation System Modal Availability Modal Performance Cost Speed/Congestion Safety, Reliability, Convenience, etc. Supply Factors Travel

Travel Growth Estimation Equations Trip Generation Trip Length Mode Travel Time Budget Travel Speed/Mode Income % Δ Population + 1/3 % Δ Personal Income = % Δ Vehicle Miles of Travel

What Has Changed? Historic trends in travel: Socio-Economic Demographic Travel Without data, you're just another person with an opinion."

YTD VMT -3.0% thru July 2008, -3.8% rural, -2.5% urban VMT Growth Trends Annual Change in Population and VMT 8% 6% VMT Change (each year) VMT Change (annualized 5-yr. avg.) Population Change 4% 2% 0% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-2% 13-4%

U.S. Population is Concentrated in Peak Travel Age Cohorts 24,000 20,000 Population Age Profile in 2000 12% 10% VMT per Capita 16,000 12,000 8,000 8% 6% 4% Percent of Population 4,000 2% 0 0% 5-5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ VMT per Capita 2001 PMT per Capita 2001 1970 2000 2020 14 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS and U.S. Census Bureau

Older Women Less Likely to Drive Percent of Drivers 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 <= 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 Age Group 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 Over 85 Male Female Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics Series, 2000

Per ACS 2007, Average HH size is now 2.61. Average Household Size is Stabilizing, 1930-2000 5 Household Size. 4 3 2 4.01 3.68 3.38 3.29 3.11 2.75 2.63 2.59 1 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Per ACS 2007, zero-vehicle households are now down to 8.72%, constituting about 6.05% of population. Declining Zero-Vehicle Households 25% 20% Percent 15% 10% 5% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 NPTS/NHTS Census 17 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS and U.S. Census Bureau

Vehicle Saturation? Vehicle Gluttony? 1.6 1.4 1.2 Ratio 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 18 Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics Series Ratio of Vehicles to Persons Over 16 Ratio of Vehicles to Drivers Ratio of Vehicles to Workers

Per ACS 2007, nationwide carpooling is now 10.4 %. Census Work Trips Carpooling Mode Share 25% Percent Carpooling to Work 20.4% 20% 15% 10% 5% 19.7% 13.4% 12.2% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Per ACS 2007, walking is now 2.84%. Declining Walk Shares 12% Percent Walking to Work 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 5.0% 4.6% 4.1% 4.5% 4.0% 3.7% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Work Trip by "Usual Mode" Work Trip by Actual Mode Census Walking to Work 20 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS, U.S. Census Bureau

Per ACS 2007, Transit usual mode commuting is now 4.88%. Ending the Decline in Transit Mode Share Survey Data 21 Percent of Trips on Transit 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3.4% 8.9% 6.4% 2.7% 2.7% 4.5% 4.6% 5.3% 2.2% 4.6% 5.0% 4.9% 4.1% 4.6% 4.7% 3.6% 3.7% 4.9% 1% 1.8% 1.6% 0% 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Census Journey to Work NPTS/NHTS (all trips) AHS (work trips) 4.7% Census Supplemental Survey-Work NPTS/NHTS (work trips)

Person Trips per Person per Year and PMT per Person Trip 1,500 Trip Rate 1,272 1,457 1,483 15 PT per Person per Yr 1,000 500 994 978 8.9 8.7 Trip Length 9.3 9.0 9.8 10 5 PMT per PT 0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 0 PT/Person/Yr PMT per PT 22 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS

Factors Contributing to US VMT Growth 1977-2001 Trip Length 10% Mode Shifts 16% Population 28% Trip Frequency 46% 23 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS

NHTS/NPTS Data Suggest Travel Speeds are Now Slowing 40 35 30 Speed (MPH) 25 20 15 Changes in mode, path, departure time, and moving to the suburbs enabled higher speed travel Have we run out of ways to travel faster? 10 5 0 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 All Trips Work Trip Usual Mode 24 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS

Travel Time Budgets Have Grown 1.8 Minutes per Day per Person per Year 90 80 78.5 Minutes of Travel per Day 70 60 50 40 30 20 45.7 58.2 66.2 32.8 more minutes of travel each day since 1983 10 0 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 25 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS and NPTS

What Might Change?

Travel Growth Due to Personal Income Growth Elasticity of Travel with Respect to Personal Income Changes Study NSTPRSC Forecasts +0.39% Percent change in per capita VMT for each 1% Increase in per capita personal income Pickrell and Schimek (1999) +0.35% to 0.37% Hu et al. (2000) Trip +0.20% Trip to 0.40% VMT/ 2001 NHTS Derived (CUTR) Rate 0.1564 Length 0.1178 PMT 0.0786 0.3940 Cumulative Impact

Personal Income Impacts Will personal income grow at its historic rate of ~1.5%/year? Will travel continue to respond to income growth? Vehicle availability Travel speed Personal income growth across the income distribution

Impact of Density Impact of Density High density urban areas have as little as half the per capita VMT as exurban areas Future high density residents may not behave as in the past Income Vehicle ownership The specialization of activity and consumption may be offsetting the economy of density (work, shop, recreate, worship, medical, education)

Activity Scale and Distribution The average size of an elementary school in the U.S. has grown from 155 students in 1950 to 473 in 2000. America has gone from having 81 grocery stores per million persons in 1977 to 35 per million in 1997. In 1970, there were 34 hospitals per million persons. In 2000 there were 20.

Do Business Economics Contradict Travel Minimization 1940 - Went to the Doctor 2008 - Went to the General practitioner who referred you to the specialist who sent you to the scanning center, the pharmacist, and the physical therapist.

They said we need high density to make public transit work. No, they said we need public transit to make high density work. 32

Future Travel Costs? Jeff Rubin of CIBC World Markets was laughed at three years ago when he predicted $100 per barrel oil, and now thinks it will climb to $225 in four years. by Lloyd Alter, Toronto On 04.25.08 DOE/EIA-0383(2008) June 2008

250 Comparison of CPI and BHWY PPI 200 150 100 50 CPI Standardized PPI 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 PPI does not incorporate: shift from rural to urban design standards for larger share of projects more/better MOT more technology in infrastructure higher cost right-of-way more mitigation investments The cost of buying consensus, etc.

Cost of Mode Shifts Bus = $0.80 operating and $0.15 capital per pm $0.95. LRT = $0.60 operating and $1.60 capital per pm $2.20. >75% provided by public funds $0.75 - $1.70 per PMT ~ $0.02 per PMT for roadway travel provided by tax sources. Therefore, public transit is dramatically more public cost intensive. Source: National Transit Data 2006

Transit s Future Financial sustainability Economy of scale for transit expansion Elasticity of demand to transit service expansion Environmental efficiency Ability to influence location choices Consistency with customer values (security, convenience, privacy, image, etc.)

Comments on Non-Urban Travel? One vacation is equivalent to up to a 10 mile per day longer commute How does city rebuilding compare to other mobility accommodating strategies? (Is a country that won t raise gas taxes a dime willing to transform urban America?) Managing regional growth versus urban growth.

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