North Carolina ted@econleadership.com Competitiveness NC
Everyone has a plan till they get hit in the mouth Mike Tyson
The Punch Job Change 1990 to 2012 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 182,905 30,685 16,530 The loss of about 80% of our traditional manufacturing jobs 92,531 6,119 8,338 86,962 30,229 Textiles Tobacco App/Cut Sew Furniture 1990 2012 Source: NCESC.com
NC Employment Changes By Sector 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 2000-2012 40% 35% 27% 28% 28% 18% 1% 3% 1% 0% -9% -13% -18% -30% -26% -42% Accom/Food Art/Enter Health Education Prof/Tech Real Estate Finance/Ins Info Trans/Ware Retail Wholesale Manufacturing Construction Mining Agriculture Total Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted Source: QCEW County Sector Data
NC Employment Growth 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Jan Annual Employment Source:NCESC.com
Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Job Growth 2000-2012 15% 10% 5% 5.4% 9.2% 6.4% 0% -5% -1.8% -2.6% -0.9% -10% -15% -20% -25% -21.4% -9.9% Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Source: QCEW County Sector Data
Source: Georgetown Public Policy Institute, Carnevale and Smith, July 2012 NC Real GDP By Industry 2010 25% 20% 18% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1% 5% 4% 3% 13% 11% 11% 3% 5% 4% 4% 11% 10% 1% 1% 7% 7% 15% 3% 3% 2% 2% 14% NC South
Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Manufacturing Growth 2000-2012 0% -10% -20% -30% -25.4% -40% -50% -46.7% -41.4% -46.1% -33.8% -36.4% -42.6% -60% -53.1% Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Source: QCEW County Sector Data
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes August 2012 to August 2013 3.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, Nov, 2013 Measured Aug 2012- Aug 2013
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes 300,000 274,700 250,000 200,000 150,000 131,400 100,000 50,000 0 91,600 66,700 43,300 13,300 21,30038,900 36,600 20,400 35,200 32,200 33,300 12,200 9,800 7,600 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured May 2012 to May 2013
Southern States Per Capita Income 1990-2012 (% Different from Nation Change) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 39.2% U.S. Change 120.6% Inflation 73% 31.5% 20.5% 22.0% 19.7% 18.2% 7.5% 7.5% 8.5% 11.2% 6.7% 1.5% -5.1% -4.3% -13.0% -10.7% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: bber, University of New Mexico
NC Per Capita Income Compared to U.S. 1990-2012 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 United States $20,000 NC $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 Source: bber, University of New Mexico
Southern States Real Personal Income Change 2011 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% U.S. Change 2.7% 4.1% 4.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 2.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: BLS, June 2013
Source: BEA July 2013 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% Southern States Private Sector GDP Growth 2000-2011 24.4% 30.7% 25.1% 20.0% 15.0% 17.1% 15.4% 18.3% 16.1% 17.9% 20.9% 16.8% 10.0% 5.0% 9.7% 10.0% 5.8% 9.7% 10.7% 7.7% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: BEA July 2013 10.0% Southern States Manufacturing GDP Growth 2000-2011 8.0% 7.9% 6.0% 5.4% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 2.4% 0.5% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% -2.0% -4.0% -1.2% -1.9% -2.2% -2.7% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
GDP/Capita Changes in the NC $50,000 1997-2011 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 NC USA Source: BEA, Oct 2012
Major Global Trends Impacting Competitiveness
Urbanization We Are Becoming A World Where People Live in Urban Regions
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% U.S. Population Concentration Metro-Non-Metro Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities of 1 million or more In 2012 over 90% of GDP and 86% of all jobs are in metropolitan areas 80% 0% 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Metro Non-Metro Source: Census
60% Southern States % of Population Rural 2010 50% 40% 30% 41% 44% 25% 42% 27% 30% 51% 34% 34% 34% 34% 25% 51% 20% 10% 9% 13% 15% 0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. Census 2010
NC Gross State Product 2011 Other Metros 6% Non-Metro 19% Charlotte 25% Fayetteville 4% Asheville 3% Hickory 3% Wilmington 3% Piedmont Triad 14% Research Triangle 23% Source: IHS Global Insight, 2013
2013 Ranking for NC Metropolitan and Metropolitan Statistical Areas Of 366 Metropolitan Areas Top Third (7) Middle Third (3) Bottom Third (4) Of 576 Micropolitan Areas Top Third (8) Middle Third (4) Bottom Third (14) Source: Policom.com, 2013
350 Economic Strength Rankings 2013 (NC) (Annual Rank of the 366 Metro Areas) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Charlotte Raleigh Durham Fayetteville Wilmington Winston-Salem Greensboro Asheville Hickory 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Policom Corporation, 2013
Global Interdependence
State Goods Exports Per Capita 2012 $16,000 $14,000 $13,724 $12,000 $10,000 $10,183 $8,000 $6,000 $4,049 $5,043 $3,946 $5,345 $4,821 $6,124 $4,000 $2,000 $3,437 $3,618 $2,584 $2,002 $2,310 $2,948 $1,724 $2,228 $0 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source:2010-2012 data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade
Technology
Energy McKinsey & Company Disruptive Technologies: May 2013 Mobile Internet Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intelligence, 3D Printing
State Technology and Science Index 2012 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 30 49 38 26 45 44 79 Indicators in R &D, Risk Capital, Entrepreneurial infrastructure, Human Capital, Tech and Science Workforce, and Tech Concentration and Dynamism 2 29 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV 50 21 40 43 35 19 6 48 Source: Milken Institute April 2013
North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States Tech Concentration 10 Tech & Science Workforce 26 Human Capital 23 Risk Capital 25 R &D 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Milken Institute April 2013
North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States 2010 & 2013 Tech Concentration 11 10 Tech & Science Workforce 15 26 Human Capital 23 26 Risk Capital 8 25 R &D 16 25 Overall 13 21 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Milken Institute April 2013
The Talent Bar
US Adults Years School Completed 80% 76% In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA 70% 60% In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA 1940 50% 1950 1960 40% 30% 20% 10% 31% 14% 13% 37% 31% 26% 15% 5% 5% 17% 30% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0% Less than HS HS Grad Some College BA plus
Degree Attainment Rate By Southern State 2010 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 45% 44% 37% 36% 38% 36% 35% 32% 32% 30% 32% 34% 28% 28% 30% 26% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: Lumina Foundation, March 2012
Source: Economicmodeling, Joshua Wright, Oct 3, 2013
Source: The Atlantic, Joshua Wright, Oct, 2013 35.0% 30.0% Southern States Percentage of New Jobs 2010-2013 Paying Middle Wage 32.0% 30.0% 29.0% 29.0% 25.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 24.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 18.0% 16.0% 17.0% 17.0% 14.0% 19.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July 2013 25.0% Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate 22.6% 20.0% 15.0% 15.9% 19.0% 19.5% 17.0% 20.4% 19.1% 19.1% 15.8% 17.9% 17.2% 18.9% 18.3% 18.5% 18.6% 10.0% 10.1% 11.5% 5.0% 0.0% USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED)
30% Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate 1983 (Blue) & 2013 (Red) 27% 25% 20% 15% 23% 22% 22% 19% 20% 19% 19% 19% 20% 18% 15% 16% 17% 15% 23% 18% 16% 21% 20% 17% 17% 19% 18% 11% 12% 10% 5% 0% USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED) Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July 2013,SGPB Profile of the South, 1986
Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/2013 15.0% Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 5 Years 10.0% 9.8% 5.0% 3.3% 5.7% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -6.8% -0.4% -10.1% 0.6% -8.5% -5.0% -5.1% -8.0% -7.9% -2.1% -2.6% -0.2% -15.0% -20.0% -15.9% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/2013 12.0% 10.0% Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 12 month 10.5% 10.8% 8.0% 6.7% 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 4.7% 5.3% 4.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Today s Persistent New Reality The economy changed The competition changed Locational factors changed The U.S. workforce has changed The talent demands changed Life cycles have changed Tools have changed Customer (talent & companies) demands/expectations changed The pace of change and everything else changed
Recommendations Align activities around a common plan, measure everything Decide on a spatial strategy Build great cities Focus on education-job skills alignment Increase workforce training capacity at the Community Colleges with a goal of national differentiation Focus on growth clusters where we currently have a competitive advantage
Recommendations Global is where the growth is, increase trade resources and grow export base (more companies exporting more to more places) Double down on the military, understand the military future Tell a compelling story Aspire for NC to be a U.S. leader in Economic Development thinking, innovation, and execution
ted@econleadership.com