PLAYBOOK presents: Victor King s NFL O/U TOTALS TIPSHEET Single $8.00 / Rest of Season: $99.00 Volume 13, Issue 5 Last Week s plays: 2-1... PLUS a FREE 5* GOM Winner on Atlanta / Cincy OVER! TWITTER: @KingCreole1 Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat... We all know what that famous latin term now means: Fortune Favors The Bold. In last week s Tipsheet, we went bold... and came away with a profitable week in our O/U plays. We were very close to sweeping the board. But after a mediocre first 3 weeks of the season, we ll certainly take a 2-1 outcome... and BUILD on it as we head into the second month of the season. Not to mention, we also put it all on the line for Totals Tipsheet customers...and gave out our 5* NFL Game of the Month for FREE. If you read last week s issue diligently, then you FOUND that play... hopefully BET it... watched it on TV... and cashed an Over-EASY winner. So WHERE was that 5* GOM listed? On Page Four, in The 2-minute handicap / OU Style section. Here s the reprint of exactly where that Best Bet was mentioned: Cin Bengals (48): 4-1 O/U as RD s 8 < pts... 3-1 O/U aft Car... 3-1 O/U bef Mia... 5-2 O/U L7 vs Atl (51.3)... ATL FALCONS: 6-1 O/U as non-conf HF s < 7 pts... *THIS game (Cincy @ Atlanta) is King s 5* NFL OVER of the MONTH for September! I believe that MOST Totals Tipsheet customers found that play and bet it. I say this because I only received about 4-5 emails or messages from clients who could NOT find it. And in those cases. I responded with a CLUE that it was listed somewhere on Page Four. This was basically an experiment. Yes, I wanted to give out a substantial Best Bet for FREE after we went 0-3 in Week Three of the Tipsheet. But I also wanted it to be a reward for people who actually READ the ENTIRE publication. Lesson Learned: This weekly newsletter is a lot MORE than just the 3 Best Bets that you read every week on Page Two. With that said, let s head to the review of Issue #4... in chronological order Game One was on UNDER the TOTAL in the 1:00pm ET kickoff game between the BUFFALO BILLS and GREEN BAY PACKERS. It was the Under of the Week from our newest canine (Monkey). And it turned out to be the EASIEST Under of the entire weekend. If you are a believer of Game Script or Game Flow (like I am), then this one played out perfectly. The significant home favorite (in this case, Green Bay) gets out to an early lead and plays extremely conservative football in the 2nd half. The Packers got out to a 16-0 lead at the half and put the game on cruise control from then on out. In fact, there was only ONE TD in the entire game. Green Bay held Buffalo to only 145 total yards, and Monkey cashed an easy winner by 22 points. Game Two was probably our boldest play of the three newsletter Best Bets. A 2** Play on OVER the TOTAL in the DETROIT LIONS October 4th-8th, @ DALLAS COWBOYS game. The OU line hovered in the range of 43-44 points all week long. The game score was 7-3 after one quarter, and 13-10 at the half. We did start to sweat slightly with only 1 TD scored in the 3rd quarter. But both teams combined for 20 points in the 4th quarter. The OVER officially cashed at the 2:17 mark when Detroit QB Stafford found Golden Tate for a 38-yard TD. The reason that this was an against the grain BOLD play: Dallas is ranked 3rd WORST in the league in offensive TD s per game (only 1.5), right behind the Cardinals and Bills (1.2). We ll take the win, but we won t make it a weekly habit of playing Dallas OVERS this season... Game Three was on OVER the TOTAL in the Sunday Night divisional matchup between the BALTIMORE RAVENS and PITTSBURGH STEELERS game (OU line was 51 points). This one started beautifully for OVER bettors. The visiting UNDERDOG (Ravens) gets out to a shocking 14-point lead after one quarter. In most cases, this tends to create extra urgency in terms of offense for the home team who is losing. And it also played out here: Pittsburgh scored 14 pts in quarter #2 and the game was 14-14 at the half. But shockingly, the Steelers would not score ANY more points in the entire rest of the game. They were SHUT OUT (and at, to boot) in the 2nd half. What looked so promising at the half turned into an ugly loser by 11 points. More on that King Creole NFL 5**** GAME of the MONTH... Again, we thank all who joined us for the Bengals @ Falcons OVER the TOTAL for our NFL 5* GOM. I sent it out to all King clients early on Monday Morning when the OU line opened at 48 points (It closed at 52 at kickoff). This one was as EASY and ENJOYABLE as it gets. The score was 14-7 after one quarter, and we already had 52 freakin points by halftime (28-24!). It officially cashed at the 11:22 mark of the 3rd quarter, and that s when I started pouring the shots of TEQUILA. Both teams combined for 73 points... and 902 offensive yards. It was a 7-1 WEEKEND for our King Creole service! Our King Creole GAMEDAY service had one our best Football weekends EVER. *Remember, All KING plays are available at Playbook.com!... College Football: 3* Notre Dame / Stanford OVER (W)... 2* S Alabama / Appalachian St OVER (W)... 2* TCU / Iowa St UNDER (W)... 2* UAB / Charlotte UNDER (W)... NFL: 5* Falcons / Bengals OVER (W)... 2* Bills / Packers UNDER (W)... 3* Seahawks / Cardinals UNDER (W)... 3* Steelers / Ravens OVER (the only loser)... We came THIS CLOSE to an 8-0 week! AFC non-division CONFERENCE games are already averaging 53.2 combined PPG... and there s FIVE on em going this week! 1
3* Redskins @ Saints OVER We re gonna be BANGING the OVER in this week s Monday Night game as the SAINTS host the REDSKINS in a battle of 1st place teams. You ll need to get your action in ASAP, as the OU line opened at 51... and has since been bet up to 52-52.5 (as of Tue morning). These teams have played each other 10 times in the last 24 years, with the results a solid 9-1 O/U (90% Overs). In fact, EACH of the last 5 meetings have gone OVER the Total (5-0 O/U), with the average MARGIN at almost 2 full TD s (+13.6 ppg!). Sharp OU bettors already know that the SUPERDOME is the highest-scoring stadium in all of Pro Football. Saint games have averaged 59.5 combined PPG in the last 3+ seasons (already 63.5 TY). And we prefer to play our Washington OVERS on the ROAD, where they have gone 9-1 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more points in the last 2 years. The first database query that I ran pertains to the fact that BOTH teams have.667 winning percentages for the year. 16-4 O/U last 2 years / 4-0 O/U THIS year: 2* Falcons @ Steelers OVER The Steelers let us down last week in their putrid Sunday Night home loss to the Baltimore Ravens. With that said, we are back ON EM for the 2nd week in a row. I can t guarantee a win, but we certainly have the database ammo to back us up. I CAN however guarantee this: (1) Pittsburgh will NOT score 14 or less points at home this week... (2) And they will NOT be SHUT OUT at home in the 2nd half (like they were last week). Obviously, the bar has been set extremely HIGH for us Totals bettors this week (opened at 55.5 / bet up to 57-57.5 by Monday night). Like our first game, you ll need to get your play in ASAP. Our first few database queries look at HIGH OU-lined games. (1) Since 2000, there has been 11 NFL games in which the OU line was 57.5 or more points. Those games have gone 9-1-1 O/U (90% Overs). (2) AFC home favs of -3 > pts (STEELERS) with a high OU line of 54 > pts have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U s 2012 versus any non-division opponent (FALCONS). (3) And GAME FIVES in which the home team 2* All NFL games in which BOTH teams have W/L percentages of.666 or better (WASH @ NORL). These games have gone 8-1 O/U when the HOST is favored by -2 > pts (SAINTS). The BYE WEEK plays a big role for BOTH teams in this game (Wash is AFTER their Bye / Saints are BEFORE their Bye). 1) 35-13-2 O/U s 07: All NFL MONDAY NIGHT teams playing BEFORE their Bye Week (SAINTS), including 8-1-1 O/U L6Y for NON-division teams. 2) 14-3-1 O/U last 4 years: All NFL road underdogs of +3 to +10 points AFTER their Bye Week (REDSKINS). So New Orleans is off a BIG road win vs the Giants (33 to 18) and Washington is off a BIG home win over Green Bay (31 to 17). 10-1-1 O/U s 2007: All GAME 11 or less home favs of -4 > points off a DD ROAD win (SAINTS) vs any opponent off a DD win (REDSKINS). These two teams are a combined 6-1 O/U on MONDAYS in the last 2+ seasons. That spells Prime-Time SHOOTOUT... Hopefully, when all is said and done, the result will be a Big and Easy OVER the TOTAL winner... is favored (STEELERS) have gone 8-1 O/U s 2011 when the OU line Onhhhhhhh is a high 50 or more points. This is one of only two games this week in which both teams have W/L percentages of.333 or less. 16-2 O/U last 6 years: All GAME FIVES when BOTH teams are.333 or worse on the season (FALCONS @ STEELERS). Pittsburgh was a division home fav last week, and s**t the bed against the Ravens. 18-4-2 O/U since 2010: All non-division home favorites off a SU division home FAV loss (STEELERS) when the OU line is 39 > points. Atlanta FINALLY hits the road off 3 straight home games in a row (in which there were 55 pts, 80 pts, and 73 pts)... 8-0 O/U last 4 years: All NFL road underdogs of > 1 point off 3 STRAIGHT home games in a row (FALCONS), when the OU line is > 45 points. No wonder the OU line is so high: This is the ONLY game on the Week Five schedule in which BOTH teams are ranked in the BOTTOM 5 on defense (Pit: 421 YPG allowed / Atl: 403 YPG allowed)... and BOTH are allowing 29 or MORE ppg as well. Rams @ Seahawks Monkey will be heading up to the Pacific Northwest this week, and GOING LOW in the NFC West Division battle between the Rams and Seahawks. The undefeated Rams are by far the CHALKIEST road team on the Week Five schedule (-7 to -7.5 points). Long-time Tipsheet readers already know how we feel about these types of games. 4-30-2 O/U last 5 years: All NFL road favorites of -7 or more points (Rams) when the OU line is > 43 points. In the last 3 years, these games have gone a remarkable 1-19 O/U! And in this division SPECIFICALLY: 7-24-1 O/U L10 years: All Game 11 or less NFC WEST DIVISION games in which the ROAD team is favored (Rams). This is a good week to GO LOW for undefeated favorites like the Rams of more than a field goal. 0-7 O/U since 2009: All GAME FIVE undefeated FAVS of > 3 pts (Rams), when the OU line is > 39 pts and < 54 pts. We are certainly aware that LA has the #1 offense in the entire league, and have scored 33, 34, 35, and 38 points in their first four game of the year. But look what the DATABASE says: NFL same-division favorites of -15 or less points who scored 33 or more points in EACH of their last four games (Rams) have gone a perfect 0-12 O/U in the HISTORY of our database! Last week, Seattle s road game vs Arizona had a LOW OU line (40 pts) and it went Under. One week later, it s almost 10 points HIGHER! 1-12 O/U since 2004: All teams w/ an OU line of 48 > points off a road UNDER (Seahawks) in which the OU line was 41 < points. 2
ALL SYSTEMS ARE THIS WEEK S HIGH PERCENTAGE O/U SYSTEMS NFL Week Four OU Results / Week Five OU lines As I briefly mentioned on Page One, NFL scoring for the season is quickly approaching HISTORIC numbers. Last week s numbers were quite frankly MIND-BLOWING. In Week Four, the average OU line was 46.8 points. Average points per game was a monumental 53.4. The average OU margin was +6.6 ppg! That means the AVERAGE game went OVER by almost a full touchdown. For the record, the official tally was 9 OVERS... and 6 UNDERS (9-6 O/U). After the first month of the season, NFL games have gone 34-29 O/U. Those actual OU results might not seem that significant ( Overs), but the numbers and averages certainly are. Average combined points per game for the season is now at 48.1. There were TEN games that had 49 or more points scored in them, and only THREE games that had 40 or less points scored. The averages for the first four weks of the season: 47.8 (Week 1)... 46.3 (Week 2)... 45.2 (Week 3)...and 48.1 (Week 4). For comparison purposes, the two highest-scoring weeks from last season were 49.9 ppg (Week 3 of )... and 48.1 ppg (Week 7 of ). And our final comparison: Last year in Week 4, the average was 44.7 ppg. This year s Week 4 average of 53.4 was almost 10 points HIGHER than last year. We can look directly at much-improved QUARTERBACK play in as the main reason for the historic rise in scoring. There are 10 quarterbacks who already have a QB Rating of 101 or better for the season: Goff (127.3)... Mahomes (126.5)... Brees (115.3)... Fitzpatrick (114.4)... Ryan (114.0)... Rivers (110.8)... Tannehill (106.1)... Cousins (103.7)... A. Smith (102.2)... Trubisky (101.6). The SURPRISING part of this list is the QB s who are NOT (yet!) ranked in the Top Ten. But they ALL have ratings in the 90.0 to 100.0 range: Newton, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Flacco, Dalton, Wilson, Watson, Luck, Roethlisberger, Stafford, and Wentz! Our final update from that wild, high-scoring week: The PRIMETIME games went 1-2 O/U (5-8 O/U overall / 46.8 ppg) Sunday s EARLY kickoff games went 6-2 O/U (22-13 O/U overall / 48.9 ppg) Sunday s LATE kickoff games went 2-2 O/U (7-8 O/U overall / 47.2 ppg) DIVISIONAL games went 1-4 O/U (9-10 O/U overall / 48.7 ppg) AFC non-division Conference games went 2-0 O/U (9-3 O/U overall / 53.2 ppg) NFC non-division Conference games went 3-1 O/U (6-8 O/U overall / 38.5 ppg) NON-Conf games (AFC vs NFC) game went 3-1 O/U (10-8 O/U overall / 46.6) Best Week FIVE-specific O/U situations 16-2 O/U last 6 years: All WEEK FIVE games (for both teams), when both teams have a YTD winning percentage of.333 or worse (Falcons @ STEELERS / Cards @ 49ERS). 8-1 O/U since 2011: All WEEK FIVE games with a HIGH OU line of 50 > pts, when the home team is FAVORED (PATRIOTS / BENGALS / STEELERS / CHARGERS / SAINTS). 11-2 O/U since 2010: All WEEK FIVE favorites BEFORE their Bye Week (SAINTS). 16-4 O/U since 2009: All WEEK FIVE games with a LOW OU line of 40 < pts (Titans @ BILLS). 12-4 O/U since 2010: All WEEK FIVE AFC home teams (STEELERS + TEX- ANS) versus a NFC opponent (FALCONS + COWBOYS). 0-7 O/U since 2009: All WEEK FIVE undefeated favorites of > 3 pts, with an OU line in the range of > 39 pts and < 54 pts (Rams) 3-16 O/U since 2005: All WEEK FIVE road teams (Giants) versus a WEEK FOUR home team (Panthers). Go Low: DIVISION games with HIGH O/U lines A good amount of TOTALS bettors finished the week on a sour note, if they bet the Chiefs / Broncos Monday Night game OVER. We passed on the game. In fact, I tweeted out on Monday morning that bettors should actually consider the UNDER if they were inclined to make a wager (TWITTER: @KingCreole1). Division games with HIGH OU lines have been great UNDER plays in the history of our database. 38-71-1 O/U s 1981: All Week 15 or less DIVISION games with a HIGH OU line of > 50 points. That s of ALL games Under the Total covering a 37-year period. And it means we will NOT go OVER the TOTAL in these games this week: Packers @ Lions... Raiders @ Chargers... or Rams @ Seahawks. BALTIMORE BUFFALO CINCINNATI CLEVELAND DENVER HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE KANSAS CITY LA CHARGERS MIAMI NEW ENGLAND NY JETS OAKLAND PITTSBURGH TENNESSEE ARIZONA ATLANTA CAROLINA CHICAGO DALLAS DETROIT GREEN BAY LA RAMS MINNESOTA NEW ORLEANS NY GIANTS PHILADELPHIA SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE TAMPA BAY WASHINGTON 43.2 41.3 44.2 38.3 41.4 44.7 44.8 43.1 49.4 45.5 45.9 48.0 42.5 46.1 53.1 43.5 38.7 52.1 43.4 41.4 44.1 47.9 46.2 47.7 40.4 54.2 40.9 42.7 42.2 43.8 46.0 47.2 44.9 39.4 46.3 44.8 42.4 43.9 45.8 41.7 53.6 43.3 40.2 43.7 40.8 41.9 42.3 41.2 41.8 45.2 45.6 42.8 40.5 46.3 49.0 50.3 45.5 49.4 39.5 45.3 40.6 40.7 49.4 46.4 POWER RATINGS COMPUTATION Compute the point difference between the home and away team. Multiply that number times 66%. The resulting number should be SUBTRACTED from the road team, if their OU rating is higher than the home team s rating. The number should be ADDED to the road team if their OU rating is lower than the home team s rating. Example: Miami (40.8) @ New Orleans (54.9). Difference is 14.1 points. Multiply times.666 and the result is 9.4 points. Round off if needed. Add 9 pts to the road team (40.8) rating to get a suggested OU Power Rating of 49.9 for this game. 3
Ind Colts (55.5) NENG PATRIOTS Bal Ravens (46) CLE BROWNS Jac Jaguars (52.5) KC CHIEFS Ten Titans (38.5) BUF BILLS Ny Giants (42.5) CAR PANTHERS Den Broncos (43.5) NY JETS Atl Falcons (55.5) PIT STEELERS GBay Packers (54) DET LIONS Mia Dolphins (47.5) CIN BENGALS Oak Raiders (51) LA CHARGERS Arz Cardinals (41) SF 49ERS Min Vikings (44.5) PHIL EAGLES La Rams (53) SEA SEAHAWKS Dal Cowboys (42) HOU TEXANS Was Redskins (51) NORL SAINTS Chicago Bears Tampa Bay Bucs 7-1 O/U Thur RG... 6-1 O/U Game 5... but 1-4 O/U aft div HG... 1-4 O/U bef NYJ... 2-6 O/U aft Hou 6-0 O/U L6 vs Indy (64.9)... 4-1 O/U as HF s 10 > pts... but 0-4 O/U aft score 35+ pts... 1-4 O/U Thursdays... 2-6 O/U aft Mia 0-5 O/U in 2nd of BB div gms... 0-4 O/U L4 as RF s... 1-4 O/U aft Pitt... 1-3 O/U in 3rd straight RG... 1-3 O/U aft allow 14 < pts 0-3 O/U L3 vs Balt (35.3)... 1-5 O/U L6 div HG... 1-3 O/U Game 5... 1-3 O/U aft Oak... 1-3 O/U in 1st of BB HG 5-0 O/U bef Dal... 7-2 O/U vs opp off Mon gm... 6-2 O/U in 1st of BB RG... but 0-8 O/U aft NYJ... 0-2 O/U vs KC (31.5) 4-0 O/U aft div RG... but 1-4 O/U vs AFC South... 2-6 O/U aft Mon gm... 2-6 O/U bef NEng... 1-3 O/U Game 5 5-0 O/U off 3 straight wins... 3-0 O/U aft Phil... 4-1 O/U Game 5... 4-2 O/U L6 vs Buf (51.1)... but 1-8 O/U aft non-conf HG 6-0 O/U as non-div HD s... 4-1 O/U aft score 7 < pts... 5-2 O/U aft GB... 5-2 O/U home off BB RG... but 1-3 O/U Game 5 6-0 O/U off DD home loss... 3-1 O/U aft NOrl... 5-2 O/U Gm 5... but 0-4 O/U bef Phil... 0-3 O/U bef Thur gm... 1-5 O/U vs opp off Bye 4-0 O/U aft Bye... 4-0 O/U Game 4... 5-2 O/U L7 vs NYG (50.7)... 7-3 O/U as non-div HF s 5 > pts... but 1-5 O/U bef Wash 6-0 O/U aft Mon gm... 4-1 O/U bef LAR... 11-3 O/U vs AFC East... but 0-3 O/U Game 5... 1-6 O/U aft KC 6-1 O/U vs opp off Mon gm... 5-1 O/U L6 home vs Den (46.2)... but 0-3 O/U aft Jac... 1-4 O/U in 1st of 3+ HG... 1-3 O/U Game 5 5-1 O/U vs <.400 opp... 5-1 O/U w/ OU line 53 > pts... 5-2 O/U aft score 35 > pts... but 0-4 O/U Game 5... 2-6 O/U bef TBay 7-1 O/U aft score 14 < pts vs non-div opp... 4-1 O/U vs NFC South... but 0-5 O/U Game 5... 1-4 O/U off SU home loss 5-0 O/U off DD home win... 4-0 O/U off non-conf HG... 9-1 O/U as RF/RD 3 < pts... 5-1 O/U aft allow 7 < pts... but 3-6 O/U Game 5 5-0 O/U L5 vs GB (51.8)... 3-0 O/U Game 5... 5-1 O/U as HD/HF 3 < pts... but 1-6 O/U bef non-conf HG... 2-5 O/U bef Mia 4-0 O/U aft allow 35+ pts... 4-1 O/U aft NEng... 4-1-1 O/U Game 5... 5-2 O/U aft div RG... but 3-7 O/U away vs AFC North 4-1 O/U aft allow 35+ pts... 3-1 O/U home off BB RG... but 0-3-1 O/U L4 vs Mia (34.3)... 1-6-1 O/U as non-div favs 5 > pts 3-1 O/U Game 5... but 0-9 O/U L9 div RG (34.67)... 1-4 O/U aft Clev... 1-4 O/U aft score 40 > pts... 1-4 O/U aft allow 40+ pts 6-3 O/U Game 5... but 0-3 O/U bef Clev... 1-4 O/U L5 vs Oak (43.2)... 3-10 O/U L13 div HG... 3-7 O/U aft non-conf HG 3-0 O/U aft Sea... 5-1 O/U in 1st of BB RG... 3-1 O/U Game 5... but 0-3 O/U bef Min... 1-4 O/U L5 vs SF (38.2) 3-0 O/U Game 5... 6-1 O/U aft LAC... 3-1 O/U aft non-conf RG... but 0-5 O/U L5 as div HF s... 1-3 O/U bef GBay 4-1 O/U bef Arz... but 0-3 O/U L3 away vs Phi (37.3)... 1-4 O/U aft Thur RG... 1-4 O/U aft allow 35 > pts... 2-5 O/U aft LAR 6-0-2 O/U bef NYG... 4-1 O/U Game 5... 4-1 O/U bef Thur gm... 3-1 O/U aft non-conf RG... but 0-3 O/U vs NFC North 5-1 O/U bef Den... 4-1 O/U aft Thur gm... but 2-11 O/U aft allow 31+ pts... 1-4 O/U vs div w/ OU line 46 > pts... 1-3 O/U aft Min 4-1 O/U Game 5... but 1-4 O/U vs opp off Thur gm... 1-4 O/U L5 vs LAR (30.8)... 1-4 O/U as HD s 2 > pts... 3-6 O/U aft Arz 0-4 O/U L4 vs Hou (36.5)... 1-6 O/U as non-div dogs 4 > pts... 1-5 O/U aft Det... 1-3 O/U vs AFC South... 1-3 O/U Game 5 3-0 O/U Game 5... 6-3 O/U aft div RG... but 2-8 O/U as non-div home favs 4 < pts... 2-7 O/U aft score 35+ pts 5-0 O/U L5 vs NOrl (62.8)... 2-0 O/U aft Bye... 3-1 O/U Mondays... 3-1 O/U Game 4...7-2 O/U off DD home win 4-0 O/U Game 5... 3-0 O/U Mondays... 3-0 O/U vs opp off Bye... 5-1 O/U bef Bye... 7-3 O/U home w/ OU line 52 > pts BYE Week... BYE Week... RECENT O/U PATTERNS BASED ON PREVIOUS OR NEXT OPP (SYSTEM PERTAINS TO TEAM IN PARENTHESIS) MONTH TO MONTH INDIVIDUAL TEAM O/U TENDENCIES In Games 5-8 of the season OCTOBER The League (LAR) is 3-0 O/U BEFORE Broncos The League (ARZ) is 8-1 O/U BEFORE Vikings The League (CAR) is 2-7 O/U BEFORE Redskins The League (NYJ) is 2-6 O/U BEFORE Colts The League (OAK is 3-7 O/U BEFORE Seahawks The League (HOU) is 4-0 O/U AFTER Colts The League (DEN) is 3-0 O/U AFTER CHIEFS The League (OAK) is 9-2 O/U AFTER Browns The League (ARZ) is 16-5 O/U AFTER Seahawks The League (BUF) is 0-7 O/U AFTER Packers The League (CLE) is 0-7 O/U AFTER Raiders The League (KC) is 1-6 O/U AFTER Broncos ARZ: 3-9 O/U home L7Y ATL: 2-10 O/U away L5Y BUF: 10-1 O/U L3Y CHI: 0-6 O/U home L4Y CIN: 7-2 O/U home L5Y DEN: 12-3 O/U away L7Y DET: 9-3 O/U L3Y GB: 1-3 O/U away L7Y HOU: 6-1 O/U away L4Y IND: 10-3 O/U L4Y KC: 1-7 O/U home L4Y LAC: 1-6 O/U home L4Y MIA: 9-3 O/U L3Y NE: 2-8 O/U L3Y NYG: 7-1 O/U home L4Y OAK: 9-2 O/U L3Y PHI: 6-1 O/U away L4Y PIT: 1-11 O/U L3Y SEA: 6-1 O/U home L4Y SEA: 1-7 O/U away L4Y SF: 7-1 O/U L2Y TB: 9-2 O/U home L6Y TEN: 7-1 O/U home L4Y WAS: 7-2 O/U home L5Y 4
NFL Red Zone TD Scoring Percentages (OFF + DEF) Last 2 Years Getting into the RED ZONE. Once an offense gets there, it can result in 7 pts (TD) or 3 pts (FG) or 0 pts (turning the ball over or losing it on downs). The difference between a TD or FG occuring in the Red Zone can sometimes be the difference between an OVER or an UNDER cashing. Here s the home and away TD percentages of teams (on offense and defense) in the Red Zone over the last two seasons. HIGHER percentages (in BOLD) increase the odds of an Over hitting. LOWER percentages tend to lead to more Unders. We ll also update this chart throughout the season. ARIZONA ATLANTA BALTIMORE BUFFALO CAROLINA CHICAGO CINCINNATI CLEVELAND DALLAS DENVER DETROIT GREEN BAY HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE KANSAS CITY LA CHARGERS LA RAMS MIAMI MINNESOTA NEW ENGLAND NEW ORLEANS NY GIANTS NY JETS OAKLAND PHILADELPHIA PITTSBURGH SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE TAMPA BAY TENNESSEE WASHINGTON 85% 86% 17% 83% 0% 80% OFFENSIVE RED ZONE TD SCORING % DEFENSIVE RED ZONE TD SCORING % 0% 28% 90% 82% 25% 51% 35% 87% 38% 66% 73% 77% 34% 35% 78% 85% 25% 80% 90% 80% 0% 89% 86% 83% 89% 27% 31% 38% 91% 66% 79% 51% 73% 42% 73% 49% in NFL Dog Plays L3Y! Dawg Pound Hotline s NFL UnderDOG of the WEEK Documented 25-11-3 ATS / 69 Available Fridays for just $25 At PLAYBOOK.com Last Week: PASS 5
NFL Home/Away O/U Results & Avg Total Points L4Y (Reg Season) Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City LA Chargers LA Rams Miami Minnesota New England New Orleans NY Giants NY Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh San Francisco Seattle Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington 2015 2014 LAST 4 YEARS 0-3 / 32.3 3-0 / 69.4 1-1 / 45.5 1-0 / 51.0 1-1 / 38.0 1-1 / 49.5 1-0 / 57.0 1-1 / 40.0 1-1 / 41.5 1-2 / 46.6 1-1 / 50.5 2-1 / 42.3 1-0 / 39.0 2-0 / 64.0 2-1 / 36.4 1-0 / 65.0 2-0 / 61.0 2-1 / 53.7 2-0 / 47.5 0-2 / 36.5 0-2 / 46.0 1-1 / 63.5 0-2 / 43.0 0-1 / 32.0 1-1 / 66.5 0-2 / 33.0 1-1 / 59.5 1-0 / 57.0 0-1 / 37.0 2-0 / 52.5 1-1 / 43.0 1-1 / 39.0 3-5 / 41.0 2-6 / 39.3 4-4 / 45.0 4-3-1 / 40.3 5-3 / 45.4 2-6 / 34.9 2-4-2 / 37.1 1-6 / 34.3 3-5 / 45.3 4-4 / 41.4 6-2 / 48.9 4-4 / 37.6 4-4 / 50.1 2-6 / 38.7 4-3 / 44.3 2-5-1 / 41.0 2-6 / 41.4 4-3 / 48.4 4-3 / 45.0 3-5 / 37.2 5-3 / 50.1 5-3 / 52.6 3-5 / 41.7 5-3 / 45.2 3-5 / 45.0 3-5 / 42.0 5-3 / 51.6 5-3 / 50.0 5-3 / 49.1 2-6 / 38.4 5-3 / 44.9 3-5 / 44.6 2-6 / 43.8 8-0 / 62.7 3-5 / 37.6 8-0 / 56.6 2-5-1 / 44.9 4-4 / 41.9 3-4 / 39.7 2-6 / 42.3 4-4 / 48.8 3-4-1 / 40.3 3-5 / 42.5 4-4 / 47.9 3-5 / 36.7 2-6 / 47.1 5-2 / 43.7 2-6 / 39.6 5-3 / 54.5 4-3 / 36.7 7-1 / 50.3 3-5 / 40.1 4-4 / 42.2 5-3 / 60.5 3-5 / 38.1 4-4 / 40.1 6-1 / 57.3 2-6 / 39.7 4-4 / 49.5 4-4 / 46.4 5-3 / 45.4 4-4 / 44.1 4-3-1 / 47.0 6-2 / 47.9 4-4 / 48.8 1-7 / 43.9 4-4 / 45.9 4-4 / 45.5 5-2-1 / 50.0 4-4 / 47.1 3-5 / 42.4 5-3 / 45.7 5-3 / 47.5 2-5-1 / 40.1 6-2 / 50.3 1-7 / 40.3 3-5 / 36.0 3-5 / 41.6 4-3 / 45.4 2-5 / 37.3 3-5 / 46.1 3-5 / 39.4 3-4 / 43.7 3-5 / 45.1 4-4 / 49.3 5-3 / 64.0 6-2 / 54.4 5-3 / 46.0 5-2-1 / 48.4 4-4 / 47.9 4-4 / 49.5 1-7 / 31.1 4-4 / 45.5 5-3 / 47.6 4-3-1 / 45.3 3-5 / 44.3 3-5 / 37.9 4-3 / 51.7 2-6 / 39.0 1-6 / 37.6 2-6 / 37.9 2-6 / 44.4 5-3 / 51.3 2-6 / 39.8 2-5-1 / 45.4 6-2 / 56.1 4-4 / 40.1 6-2 / 60.0 4-4 / 44.4 4-4 / 45.7 2-5 / 39.6 3-5 / 40.6 3-5 / 38.8 5-3 / 46.2 5-3 / 49.3 4-4 / 43.3 5-3 / 49.8 5-3 / 50.9 4-4 / 47.7 3-5 / 41.1 5-2 / 47.0 6-2 / 55.8 6-2 / 56.8 1-6-1 / 39.8 4-4 / 41.5 1-7 / 37.9 3-5 / 40.8 3-4-1 / 44.9 12-20 / 42.9 15-16 / 49.4 13-19 / 41.9 17-13-1 / 45.0 14-16-2 / 44.5 12-20 / 42.1 13-16-2 / 42.6 10-21 / 40.5 14-17-1 / 46.7 15-15-2 / 44.5 19-13 / 45.4 15-17 / 46.4 14-18 / 41.8 11-21 / 43.3 15-13 / 43.2 9-21-1 / 39.6 13-19 / 45.2 16-14 / 42.7 19-11 / 47.1 13-19 / 41,4 18-14 / 47.8 20-12 / 57.0 16-16 / 45.5 17-15 / 43.1 19-10-1 / 49.4 15-17 / 46.3 19-13 / 51.8 11-20-1 / 41.8 18-14 / 45.4 12-20 / 42.0 16-14-2 / 44.5 15-16-1 / 45.4 Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City LA Chargers LA Rams Miami Minnesota New England New Orleans NY Giants NY Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh San Francisco Seattle Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington 2015 2014 LAST 4 YEARS 0-1 / 34.0 0-1 / 30.0 1-1 / 48.5 1-2 / 35.0 1-0 / 55.0 1-1 / 38.5 3-0 / 60.7 1-1 / 63.0 0-2 / 30.5 0-1 / 41.0 2-0 / 53.5 1-0 / 48.0 1-2 / 51.7 0-2 / 33.0 0-1 / 35.0 2-1 / 65.0 2-0 / 54.5 0-1 / 46.0 0-2 / 38.5 2-0 / 63.5 1-1 / 43.5 1-1 / 65.5 1-1 / 41.0 2-1 / 48.7 1-1 / 43.5 2-0 / 48.5 2-0 / 49.5 2-1 / 53.6 1-2 / 43.0 2-0 / 63.0 1-1 / 31.0 0-1 / 30.0 3-5 / 41.0 3-5 / 44.2 5-3 / 42.2 3-5 / 42.2 4-4 / 40.7 2-5-1 / 38.1 4-4 / 42.7 6-3 / 44.7 3-5 / 40.4 4-4 / 42.5 4-4 / 49.3 7-1 / 50.4 3-5 / 48.5 4-4 / 44.6 4-5 / 41.7 5-3 / 53.2 2-6 / 36.9 7-2 / 52.0 3-5-1 / 39.8 4-4 / 42.0 2-6 / 44.0 4-4 / 44.1 3-5 / 37.5 3-5 / 39.6 2-6 / 39.3 4-3-1 / 52.0 0-7-1 / 37.6 3-5 / 39.2 2-6 / 38.1 6-2 / 51.2 4-4 / 41.4 5-3 / 46.6 8-0 / 53.8 5-2-1 / 55.5 4-4 / 45.4 4-4 / 40.5 4-3-1 / 51.5 4-4 / 42.7 3-6 / 40.2 6-2 / 47.2 2-6 / 42.0 3-5 / 38.4 3-5 / 45.4 6-2 / 54.5 3-5 / 39.1 7-1 / 53.3 5-4 / 45.8 4-4 / 47.8 4-4 / 49.6 3-6 / 40.1 5-3 / 42.6 3-4-1 / 39.1 2-6 / 44.1 4-4 / 54.8 1-7 / 36.1 3-5 / 45.4 5-4 / 44.4 7-1 / 47.5 2-6 / 41.2 6-2 / 51.9 4-4 / 35.4 3-5 / 46.2 5-3 / 47.8 6-2 / 49.3 5-3 / 51.4 1-7 / 41.6 3-5 / 45.5 4-4 / 46.7 5-3 / 51.0 4-4 / 44.4 4-4 / 44.9 3-5 / 43.0 1-7 / 33.6 4-4 / 41.2 3-5 / 44.5 4-4 / 45.9 5-2-1 / 45.5 5-3 / 50.9 6-3 / 56.3 6-2-1 / 47.9 3-5 / 43.6 1-7 / 36.8 4-5 / 43.7 1-6-1 / 38.2 5-3 / 48.3 4-4 / 46.5 5-3 / 53.4 3-5 / 41.6 3-4-1 / 46.4 4-4 / 53.0 2-6 / 43.3 6-2 / 47.0 3-5 / 42.0 4-4 / 47.2 5-3 / 44.8 6-2 / 51.4 2-5-1 / 38.3 2-7 / 48.4 5-3 / 49.9 2-7 / 41.0 6-2 / 51.0 6-2 / 50.6 1-7 / 37.4 3-5 / 39.6 7-1 / 64.8 4-4 / 48.4 1-7 / 35.3 4-4 / 44.1 4-4 / 40.5 5-3 / 57.6 6-3 / 42.3 2-6 / 38.6 4-4 / 48.1 3-5 / 38.5 3-5 / 45.8 2-6 / 40.2 4-4 / 48.0 5-3 / 52.1 6-2 / 49.7 4-4 / 44.4 5-4 / 41.8 4-3-1 / 53.3 3-5 / 43.6 3-5 / 40.8 4-4 / 39.5 4-4 / 47.9 3-5 / 45.6 4-4 / 47.4 18-13-1 / 46.1 11-21-1 / 47.4 17-15 / 45.7 13-20 / 42.6 19-12-1 / 48.6 16-15-1 / 43.8 12-21 / 41.3 18-15 / 43.6 13-19 / 45.2 15-17 / 42.6 11-21 / 43.6 21-11 / 48.5 15-16-1 / 43.4 21-11 / 51.6 21-15 / 46.5 17-15-1 / 46.9 13-19 / 44.5 14-20 / 41.8 15-18-1 / 42.9 10-20-2 / 39.9 13-19 / 46.1 17-15 / 49.4 15-17 / 44.2 13-19 / 42.7 15-18-1 / 42.9 19-11-2 / 51.4 7-24-1 / 41.4 18-14 / 44.7 13-19 / 38.7 17-15 / 48.1 17-15 / 44.9 21-11 / 48.7 6