The Evolving Shopper & Its Impact on Produce Amir Jalaly & Chris Cowan
WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
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Kantar Noun 1. A unit of weight or measurement 5
Methodology The largest shopper panel in Great Britain Geographically and demographically representative of the population of GB 30,000 Households in GB
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65 PRODUCE SUPPLIERS IN THE UK 8
WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
FOOD Food and IS BECOMING Drink as a Proportion LESS COMPARATIVELY of UK Household Expenditure CHEAPER % % household expenditure spent on food 25 20 15 10 5 0 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV 11
BUT OTHER COSTS ARE INCREASING Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure % % household expenditure spent on food 25 Housing & Utilities 20 15 10 5 0 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV 12
Spend on food 1970s 21% 15% Now 9% 11% ONS ABQI http://www.urmc.rochester.edu/encyclopedia/content.aspx?contenttypeid=1&contentid=2894 13
Shopping habits Trips per annum Spend per trip % eating out 80% of sales 228 $19.97 17% 6 88 $35.56 32% 20 KWP Usage & Booz & Co. Analysis http://www.urmc.rochester.edu/encyclopedia/content.aspx?contenttypeid=1&contentid=2894 14 US Dept of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Long term shares of Major Retailers UK Grocery 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1973 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Independents Co-ops Sainsbury's Tesco Asda 18
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6% 1% 20
6.8% of Total Grocery 21
6.8% of Total Grocery 10% of produce value 13% of produce volume 22
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90p 89p 89p 1 24
THIS HAS BEEN KEY TO ALDI S METEORIC RISE IN PRODUCE Aldi market share 5.5 5.3% 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2.6% Aldi Value 52 w/e 14 Nov 10 52 w/e 12 Dec 10 52 w/e 09 Jan 11 52 w/e 06 Feb 11 52 w/e 06 Mar 11 52 w/e 03 Apr 11 52 w/e 01 May 11 52 w/e 29 May 11 52 w/e 26 Jun 11 52 w/e 24 Jul 11 52 w/e 21 Aug 11 52 w/e 18 Sep 11 52 w/e 16 Oct 11 52 w/e 13 Nov 11 52 w/e 11 Dec 11 52 w/e 08 Jan 12 52 w/e 05 Feb 12 52 w/e 04 Mar 12 52 w/e 01 Apr 12 52 w/e 29 Apr 12 52 w/e 27 May 12 52 w/e 24 Jun 12 52 w/e 22 Jul 12 52 w/e 19 Aug 12 52 w/e 16 Sep 12 52 w/e 14 Oct 12 52 w/e 11 Nov 12 52 w/e 09 Dec 12 52 w/e 06 Jan 13 52 w/e 03 Feb 13 52 w/e 03 Mar 13 52 w/e 31 Mar 13 52 w/e 28 Apr 13 52 w/e 26 May 13 52 w/e 23 Jun 13 52 w/e 21 Jul 13 52 w/e 18 Aug 13 52 w/e 15 Sep 13 52 w/e 13 Oct 13 52 w/e 10 Nov 13 52 w/e 08 Dec 13 52 w/e 05 Jan 14 52 w/e 02 Feb 14 52 w/e 02 Mar 14 52 w/e 30 Mar 14 52 w/e 27 Apr 14 52 w/e 25 May 14 52 w/e 22 Jun 14 52 w/e 20 Jul 14 52 w/e 17 Aug 14 52 w/e 14 Sep 14 52 w/e 12 Oct 14 52 w/e 09 Nov 14 25
How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
Number of times we purchase produce per year.
THE SHOPPER THEMSELVES? -11kgs Decline in produce volume of average household over 5 years
Top produce markets by spend 2010 2014 Berries & Currants Berries & Currants Dessert Apples Tomato Banana Old Potatoes New Potatoes Easy Peelers Mushroom Peppers Grape - White Dessert Apples Tomato Old Potatoes Banana Easy Peelers Mushroom New Potatoes Grape - Red Peppers
Long term volume change key markets Millions tonnes -300-250 -200-150 -100-50 0 50 100 Potatoes Apples Pears Brassicas Legumes Citrus Bananas Tropical Fruits Root Crops Salads Soft Fruit -281-20 -12-11 0 8 14 36 44 70 79
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1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3+ YEARS GROWTH 131 55 83 DECLINE 173 100 84 32
1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3+ YEARS GROWTH 9% 18% 27% DECLINE 18% 15% 13% 33
28% % of produce market in long term decline 34
SOME OF THE BIGGEST CASUALTIES 35
How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
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A simple problem The Challenge declining volume sales 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 52 w/e 04 Apr 10-3% -2% -2% -9% 52 w/e 03 Apr 11 52 w/e 01 Apr 12 52 w/e 31 Mar 13 52 w/e 30 Mar 14 38
DO PEOPLE KNOW THEY RE BUYING LESS? 78.8 8.8 11.3 Potatoes Less Potatoes Same Potatoes More Filtered to respondants who have decreased purchasing by 20%+ in last year 39
Competitors Convenience Shopper Journey & Decision Process 40
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POTATO VOLUMES 12 W/E 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12-14 12 w/e 06 Feb 11 12 w/e 06 Mar 11 12 w/e 03 Apr 11 12 w/e 01 May 11 12 w/e 29 May 11 12 w/e 26 Jun 11 12 w/e 24 Jul 11 12 w/e 21 Aug 11 12 w/e 18 Sep 11 12 w/e 16 Oct 11 12 w/e 13 Nov 11 12 w/e 11 Dec 11 12 w/e 08 Jan 12 12 w/e 05 Feb 12 12 w/e 04 Mar 12 12 w/e 01 Apr 12 12 w/e 29 Apr 12 12 w/e 27 May 12 12 w/e 24 Jun 12 12 w/e 22 Jul 12 12 w/e 19 Aug 12 12 w/e 16 Sep 12 12 w/e 14 Oct 12 12 w/e 11 Nov 12 12 w/e 09 Dec 12 12 w/e 06 Jan 13 12 w/e 03 Feb 13 12 w/e 03 Mar 13 12 w/e 31 Mar 13 12 w/e 28 Apr 13 12 w/e 26 May 13 12 w/e 23 Jun 13 12 w/e 21 Jul 13 12 w/e 18 Aug 13 12 w/e 15 Sep 13 12 w/e 13 Oct 13 12 w/e 10 Nov 13 12 w/e 08 Dec 13 12 w/e 05 Jan 14 12 w/e 02 Feb 14 12 w/e 02 Mar 14 12 w/e 30 Mar 14 12 w/e 27 Apr 14 12 w/e 25 May 14 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 20 Jul 14 12 w/e 17 Aug 14 12 w/e 14 Sep 14 12 w/e 12 Oct 14 42
How we buy Groceries has changed? How we buy Produce has changed? Acting upon Change
WHO are Kantar Worldpanel? HOW have shopping habits changed & the impact on produce? A CHANGING consumer landscape
BEFORE WE GET CARRIED AWAY consumption habits rarely change quickly Our #1 4.2 dish different evening meals per week
Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
60% 1980 44% 49
LESS AND LESS TIME IN THE KITCHEN 1980 60 minutes 1990 45 minutes 2014 32 minutes 50
Shift from selling ingredients Ingredient = lower value 51
To selling solutions Dish maker = high value 52
But we still love our food We watch 121 hours of food programmes on TV a year We own 9 recipe books 53
Trade Off 54
Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
SPEED & SIMPLICITY BECOMING MORE & MORE IMPORTANT The Need for Speed: 1 in 5 occasions described as A quick bite Simplicity: On Average only 2 prep methods at eve meals 56
Total Produce -11kgs 57
Diversifying risk by investing away from the whole head arena to spread risk
Price/Kg 2.14 vs 3.50 0.84 vs 5.20 59
Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
Meals are not easily volume expandable Of all occasions only Snacking is truly volume expandable 61
1 in every 5 times we eat, it s a snack
Healthy snacking is on the up 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 J F M M A M J J A S O N D J F M M A M J J A 2013 2014
HEALTHY SNACKING 2.6 BILLION 2.6 billion
Pink Lady Apples 65
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Long term volume change key markets Millions tonnes -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Apples Pears -20-12 Citrus 8 Bananas 14 Tropical Fruits 36 Soft Fruit 79 67
8.5% 88% 22pa 68
WHEN IS PINK LADY CONSUMED? Breakfast Snacking 31 10 Breakfast 32 Lunch Dinner Snacking 28 Lunch Dinner 69
Why do people choose Pink Lady? To get portion of fruit or veg 70 Health benefits (fibre/vitamins) 50 Lower in fat/salt/sugar 10 Lighter/not filling 8 Calorie or portion control 7
So we change the product communication. But is this enough to increase frequency of consumption? 72
42 That s how many chances you have each week to stand out in the Fridge 24 in the Cupboard 8 in the Freezer WorldpanelUsage
The fridge is key! Higher frequency of consumption Higher visibility 74
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Individualisation & Simplicity The Impact on Produce Healthy Snacking
Shoppers are changing Consumers are changing
For further information please contact: Amir Jalaly Tel.: +44 (0)20 8967 2077 Amir.jalaly@kantarworldpanel.com For further information please contact: Chris Cowan Tel.: +44 (0)20 8967 4034 Chris.cowan@kantarworldpanel.com