The British Election Study Professor Ed Fieldhouse (Manchester) Professor Jane Green (Manchester) Professor Geoffrey Evans (Oxford) Professor Hermann Schmitt (Manchester) Professor Cees van der Eijk (Nottingham) Dr Jon Mellon (Manchester) Dr Chris Prosser (Manchester) www.britishelectionstudy.com
The British Election Study Running since 1963 Funded by the Economic and Social Research Council 2015 and 2017 BES at University of Manchester in partnership with Oxford and Nottingham Important source of data for academics, pollsters, the media, and the public Understanding British politics in an unstable and unpredictable time The Volatile Voter, Oxford University Press, 2018. Key role in the British Polling Council Polling Inquiry into 2015 polls Shortlisted for a 2017 ESRC Celebrating Impact prize
The British Election Study Series 1963 1970 Butler & Stokes, Political Change in Britain 1963, 1964, 1966 cross sections. 1963 1970 panel 1969 1979 Crew, Roberton, & Sarlvik, British Election Study 1974 Feb, 1974 Oct, 1975 EEC Referendum, 1979 cross sections. 1969 1974 Panel, 1974 1979 panel 1983 2001 Heath, Jowell & Curtice, British General Election Study 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997 cross sections. 1983 1987, 1987 1992, 1992 1997, 1997 2001 panels 2001 2010 Clarke, Sanders, Stewart & Whiteley, British Election Study 2001, 2005, 2010 cross sections. 2005 2010 internet panel 2014 Now Fieldhouse, Green, Evans, Schmitt, van der Eijk, Mellon & Prosser, British Election Study 2015, 2017 cross sections, 2014 2018 internet panel (+ linking variables to 2005 2010 panel)
2015 Study: Timeline January 2014 May 2014 September 2014 Wave 1 Wave 2: European and local elections Wave 3. Independence referendum 2015 General Election Wave 4 Pre Wave 6 Post 2010 election sample Voter registration data matching Wave 5 Daily rolling thunder 2005 election sample May 2017 May 2016 Wave 8 Local elections Wave 7 Scottish, Welsh & locals Twitter data harvest Post election face to face probability sample + mailback inc. CSES module N = 3,000
Additional components April May 2016 EU Referendum June July 2016 Nov Dec 2016 Wave 7. Pre Referendum +pre local election Wave 9. Post Referendum Wave 10. Brexit follow up Wave 8. Referendum daily campaign + post locals June 2017 General Election 2017 April May 2017 Wave 13. Post election Wave 11. Pre election May June 2017 Wave 11.Daily Campaign Post election face to face probability sample + self complete CSES module Vote validation
Recent data releases (2017) Panel waves Wave 13 June 2017 June 2017 N = 31,196 Wave 12 May 2017 June 2017 N = 34,464 Wave 11 April 2017 May 2017 N = 31,014 Wave 10 November 2016 December 2016 N = 30,319 Cumulative files Combined Wave 1 13 Combined Wave 1 10 2017 General Election results file UKDS Deposits British Election Study, 2015: Face to Face Post Election Survey with LSOA+NS SEC British Election Study, 2015: Internet Panel, Waves 1 6 with MSOA and occupation, SOC 2010, links to 2005 and 2010
Understanding the 2017 Election Commissioned by BBC News website Using BES Panel data, which covers key events since 2014, including: Scottish Independence Referendum 2015 Election EU Referendum 2017 Election Key factors in 2017 election Brexit & the realignment on the liberal authoritarian dimension Leadership and the campaign Scotland
Research Examples using the post election cross section series
Mean strength of partisan identity 1964 2015
Perceived difference between Con and Lab, 1964 2015
Reported turnout by age group, 1964 2015 Reported turnout 50 60 70 80 90 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Age group 18 34 35 54 55+
Generational differences in vote choice, 1964 2015 Conservative Labour Proportion voting for party.1.2.3.4.5 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Pre War Gen X Baby Boomer Millennial
Research Examples using panel data
Voter volatility, 1964 2017 (inter election panels)
Changing effect of EU attitudes on vote choice Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat UKIP Green Party Marginal effect of EU scale.2.1 0.1.2 Feb 2014 2015 Election EU Referendum 2017 Election Feb 2014 2015 Election EU Referendum 2017 Election Feb 2014 2015 Election EU Referendum 2017 Election Feb 2014 2015 Election EU Referendum 2017 Election Feb 2014 2015 Election EU Referendum 2017 Election Without controlling for other scales Controlling for other scales
Research Examples using linked survey and contextual data
Support for redistribution by household income and constituency deprivation (Wave 6, multilevel model) Support for redistribution 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Annual Household Income (1000 s) Lives in least deprived area Lives in most deprived area
Support for Proportional Representation by party voted for s majority size (Regression Discontinuity) Proportion supporting PR 0.2.4.6.8 1 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 Party Constituency Win Distance LATE =.11, 95% CI =.19,.02
2017 General Election Some examples using with the BES Panel Study
May 5 June 7
Leavers
Remainers
Soft vs hard Brexit
What changed (and what didn t) over the 2017 campaign? Example using the daily panel data during the campaign
Leader ratings over the campaign Like Leader Best PM Proportion Saying Best PM.2.3.4.5.6 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 Campaign Day May Corbyn
Party positions over the campaign Redistribution EU Party redistribution position 3 4 5 6 7 Party EU position 4 5 6 7 8 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 Campaign Day 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 Campaign Day Conservatives Labour Conservatives Labour
Handle most important issue over the campaign