North Carolina Transportation Issues David T. Hartgen, Ph.D., P.E. Emeritus Professor of Transportation Studies UNC Charlotte Remarks at the Shaftesbury Lecture John Locke Foundation Raleigh, North Carolina February 23, 2009
Issues Status and Need Funding Expenditures Project Selection Transit and Climate Change Organizational
NC Highway Performance 2003 06 0.00 Per Mile -10.00 Disbursements -20.00 relative to US Avg -30.00-40.00-50.00 North Carolina Highway Expenditures and Performance, 2003-2006 $10.5B, 2003-2006 ($ 171,000 per mile of responsibility) -4.43 Pct RI Poor -0.22 Pct ROPA Poor -7.18 Pct UI Poor Pct -4.69 UI Congested -0.33-1.59-0.11 Pct ROPA Narrow Fatalities/ 1B VMT Pct Bridges Deficient -60.00-70.00-63.16
Highway Status Item 2006 2007 79,800 miles 2 nd 2 nd $ 3.2 B budget 8 th 8 th 58 % Capital 22 % Maintenance 16 th 16 th Status Rural Interstate Pavement 40 th 43 rd Urban Interstate Pavement 25 th 22 nd Rural Primary Pavement 39 th 29 th Urban Interstate Congestion 48 th 46 th Wow! Fatality Rate 29 th 37 th Deficient Bridges 41 st 34 th Narrow Lanes 34 th 33 rd
Congestion Trends Congestion Will DOUBLE in 25 years Charlotte 1.31 1.62 ( Chicago ) Raleigh 1.19 1.37 ( Minneapolis )
NC 25 Yr. Road Needs Condition Congestion Safety Bridges Other Total $ 10 15 B $ 10 15 B $ 3 5 B $ 15 20 B $ 10 15 B $ 48 70 B
Highway Expenditures 90-07 Disbursements ($M) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Capital Highway and Traffic Services Highway Law Enforcement Physical Maintenance Administration/Research Bond Interest/Refinancing
NC State Hy Revenue Sources, 2006 State Motor Fuel $ 1153 m State Vehicle $ 472 State Other $ 590 Misc $ 38 Bonds $ 0 Federal Funds $ 979 Local Govts $ 16 Total $ 3251 m
Growth is Increasing Faster than Fuel Sales
NC Highway Formulas STIP: Allocations to 7 Regions: ½ ¼ ¼ Population 1/7 th each Miles to complete Intrastate System Loop: Discretionary, based on status
Highway Projects, 1990 2003 by Cost Effectiveness 2002 Cost Effectiveness 0.000 to 0.010 0.010 to 0.020 0.020 to 0.027 0.027 to 0.040 0.040 to 0.053 0.053 to 0.080 0.080 to 0.100 0.100 to 0.150 0.150 to 0.200 0.200 to 1.290 0 40 80 120 Miles
Haywood County I 40 Newfound Rd, Exit 33 (I 2103) New Exit and approach road, 1995, 0.99 mi, $4.9 M, ADT2 500 C-E $1.23
Beaulaville, NC 24 (R 2010) Widening from 2 to 5 Lanes 5.25 miles, $9.3 M, 1994 ADT2 4100 C-E $ 0.063
Recommendations Re allocate 10 12% of weakest capital projects; Use for Maintenance. Fund Worthy Projects, not Regions Congestion Relief and Travel Time Savings Accident Reduction Operating Cost Reduction Economic Impacts Environmental Impacts
Strategy for Funding System Maintenance Capital and Maintenance Program 1990-2002 = $20.5 B Divert 50 Low CE Projects to Maintenance = $2.5B 349 Major Projects $7.3B CE 5.34 $ 2.5 B saved from 50 least CE projects 2.67 TIP + Loop Other Maintenance Program $13.5B $1.4B $5.5B
Highway Revenues and Expenditures Review Revenues Tolls Mileage Taxes Local Options/ State Infr. Bank PPP s End Diversions Fund the Best Projects Modify Highway Formula End the Loop Program
Transit Systems 10 Largest NC Systems Charlotte (20 M)..TTA( 900,000) Performance vs. Plans Recommendations Release: May 2006 Study at www.johnlocke.org
Summary Statistics for 10 Systems 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 Summary of Key Statistics (Aggregate) Historical Projected Total Operating Funds Total Capital Funds 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 Annual Vehicle Revenue Miles Annual Unlinked Trips (Total) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
LYNX Station, Carolina Place
LYNX Cost and Ridership History LYNX Traffic And Cost Forecasts 30000 Prelim Eng 25760 Final Design Full Funding Opening Day 521.9 600 25000 462.7 500 21100 426.9 Rides/day 20000 15000 10000 5000 15500 17900 18100 14000 331.1 5535 227 370.8 385.9398.7 348.2 17650 12880 9100 18100 9090 6691 12457 14246 14807 11930 12689 16239 16140 16895 16357 16265 16470 400 15418 300 15440 13945 200 100 Cost $M Est. (2005) 2025 Rides/day Est. Opening Day Rides Actual Ridership Est. Cost $M 40.5 0 0 Jun-89 Jul-98 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Apr-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-09 Aug-08 Sept-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09
LYNX Benefits and Costs Total Cost, 20 years $ 706 m User Benefits $ 181 m Land Use Benefits $ 297 m Environ Benefits $ 3 m Total $ 481 m B/C 0.68 Local B/C 1.20
Recommendations For Transit Reassess mission, focus on mobility Hold down costs; overall funding proportional to ridership. Regional consolidation Coordinate with service agencies and schools Independent forecasts of use and costs
Recommendations cont. Limit assistance to 25% Rider participation 25 % Uniform expansion criteria Review capital expansions No state $ for new starts Limit state share of capital costs Encourage private-sector operation
Raleigh, NC Trends in CO2 25 Daily Tons, K 20 15 10 5 Traffic Growth New CAFE HY and Behavior 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year
Organization Issues Board Do We Need One? Smaller (5 7 members), Policy Oriented, Experts Approve Major Projects. No Advocacy Prohibit Political Contributions. Open Records Election? Agency Prioritize Major Projects, Select Others with Objective Data Legislature Fund Programs, not projects Modify/Drop Formula
Contact: David T. Hartgen, Ph.D. P.E. dthartge@uncc.edu david@hartgengroup.net 704 405 4278