Road safety Strategy Road safety Strategy and road safety Targets for Bulgaria Alan Ross
Road crash fatality reduction targets Country Base-year for target Year in which target is to be realised Target for reduction of the number of road crash fatalities Australia 1997 2005-10% Austria 1998-2000 2010-50% European Union 2000 2010-50% Finland 2000 2025-75% Netherlands 1998 2010-30% New Zealand 1999 2010-42% Poland 1997-1999 2010-43% Sweden 1996 2007-50%* United Kingdom 1994-98 2010-40% United States 1996 2008-20% *now zero vision
Targets are beneficial Countries with challenging road safety targets found to perform better than others by 5% increased reduction /year. Source Elvik, 2001
Bulgaria National Strategy Current Targets for 2010 1 Deaths to be reduced to 700 deaths = 700 Deaths/year 2 Injuries to be reduced by 25% on average of those 2002-2005 equals = 6600 injuries/year Is this realistic and achievable given that deaths in 2006 were 1043 and increasing at 5% per year and injuries are 10215 and increasing at 7% per year?
Deaths trends and targets R o a d D e a t h s 1500 1000 500 0 Road deaths projections and targets 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 deaths current trend 1043 1095 1149 1207 1267 1331 deaths desired 1043 958 873 788 700 700 Year deaths current trend deaths desired Need to save 1171 deaths by 2010
Injury trends and Targets Road injuries projections and targets 20000 10000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Injuries current trend 10215 10930 11685 12514 13390 14327 injuries desired 10215 9310 8405 7500 6597 6597 Year Injuries current trend injuries desired Need to save 16717 injuries by 2010
Road safety planning levels Policies Action plans Project plans Interventions Safety Change Institutional change Targets Targets 7 Præsentationens titel 27.09.06 Foredragsholder
Population Mobility Drivers/ vehicles The road safety pipe Potential fatalities flow along the road safety pipe. CURRENT OUTCOME TARGET OUTCOME We have to work hard even to stay still, as growing road use is pumping more potential fatalities into the pipe.our job is to siphon them off before they happen We do this with road safety interventions
Policies :UK Casualty reduction effects
UK TARGET reductions by measure and responsibility % Central Local KSI reduction Govt Govt Vehicle engineering 14.6 ++ Novice drivers 1.9 ++ + Drink / drugs driving 1.2 ++ + High mileage drivers 1.9 ++ ++ Road engineering 7.7 ++ ++ Rural single carriageway 3.4 + ++ Speed reduction 5.0 + ++ Child safety 1.7 ++ ++ Pedestrians/cyclists 1.2 + ++ Driver behaviour 1.0 + ++ Overall 35.0 Target 40.0 Total calculated by estimating combined effect of each of the above sets of measures on pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, car users and others KSI=killed and seriously injured, ++ = high responsibility for delivery Source: David Lynam presentation, TRL, 2001
Interventions Biggest Potential reductions in Bulgaria Road engineering Accident prevention, Accident reduction Enforcement - speed reduction, seatbelts and helmets, driver impairment Well directed education, training and publicity has a role to play but most effective if integrated with above to improve the safety of the road environment that communities use and live in, eg safe routes to school
Requirements for effective use of targets Targets must be: quantitative time dependent easy to understand possible to evaluate challenging but achievable based on predictable trends and benefits Need: good and consistent data systems independent monitoring
Safety targets for effective policies Ambitious but achievable All interventions have estimated contribution to targets Usually over a five to ten year period headline targets (eg. Reduce deaths by 40%) Use Intermediate outcomes such as speed, alcohol and helmet/belt usage Specific reductions identified for highest risk and vulnerable groups
Road safety management system Commitment Leadership Coordination Secretariat Crash information Knowledge Skills Resources Performance indicators Monitoring Evaluation Accountability Policies Strategies Action plans Project plans Targets Interventions Safety Change Institutional Change 14 Præsentationens titel 27.09.06 Foredragsholder
Safety and Motorisation
For more information... Alan Ross alanross999@aol.com or Alrx@cowi.com