U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks
Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder
U.S. Economic Outlook
Real Gross Domestic Product and Deflator % Change 3.0 2.2 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.0 2001 2002 Gross Domestic Product GDP Deflator
The Equation Consumption Investment Government Expenditures Net Exports
Vehicle Sales Thousands $22,000 $21,000 $20,000 $19,000 $18,000 $17,000 $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01
NAHB Housing Market Index 66 62 58 54 50 46 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01
ISM Index 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 Jan- 90 Jan- 91 Jan- 92 Jan- 93 Jan- 94 Jan- 95 Jan- 96 Jan- 97 Jan- 98 Jan- 99 Jan- 00 Jan- 01
Industrial Production 150.0 1992 =100 140.0 130.0 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01
Capacity Utilization 85.0 Percentage 80.0 75.0 70.0 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00
Unemployment United States and Colorado $ Thousands 8.0 7.0 5.8 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 4.2 United States Colorado Natural Rate
Consumer Price Index United States and Colorado CPI Rate 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 United States Denver-Boulder-Greeley
Colorado Outlook
Resident Population Growth United States and Colorado % Change 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 United States Colorado
Change in Total Population 120 Thousands 100 80 77.6 60 40 20 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Natural Change Net Migration
Per Capita Income United States and Colorado $ Thousands 40.0 $36.6 35.0 30.0 $32.2 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 United States Colorado
Construction
Index of Construction Employment 1992=100 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 204.5 143.9 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 United States Colorado
Colorado Building Permits 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 42,000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Single-Family Multi-Family
Colorado Value of Construction Nonresidential and Nonbuilding 6,000 $ Millions 5,000 4,000 $3,650 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Nonresidential Nonbuilding
Colorado Total Value of Construction 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 $ Millions $9,050 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Residential Nonresidential Nonbuilding
Manufacturing
Index of Manufacturing Employment United States and Colorado 1992 = 100 115 110 108.0 105 100 95 94.1 90 85 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 United States Colorado
Manufacturing Labor Issues Percentage of Excellent/Good Responses Professional Hourly Skill Level 58% 34% Willingness to Learn 57 40 Productivity 50 33 Availability 30 23 Work Ethic 39 27
Wholesale Trade and Retail Trade Retail and Wholesale Trade TARGET slide
Index of Consumer Confidence 1985 = 100 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 Jan-00 May Sep Jan-01 May Sept United States Mountain
Change in Retail Trade Sales % Change 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 3.9 2.0 0.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Summary
Total New Jobs Created in the Nonagricultural Sector 1992=100 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Annual Change Average Change
New Jobs Created in the Nonagricultural Sectors Thousands 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 OGM Const Mfg TCPU FIRE Trade Serv Govt 2001 2002 1990-2000
Employment Growth Colorado vs. the West % Change Arizona California Colorado Nevada New Mexico Texas Utah 1.2% - Colorado - 2001 2002 2001 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Colorado #1 State Economy Rate Rank Population growth 6.0% 3 Employment growth 3.8 4 Unemployment 2.7 6 Wage and salary growth 13.2 2 Personal income growth 10.8 1 Per capita personal income growth 4.4 14 Gross state product growth 9.0 5
What s Ahead in 2002? State budget deficit High-tech hangover Impacts of transportation and tourism slowdown Consumer confidence and retail spending Reduced wealth effect