Mexico Stands to Benefit From With Relative Ease Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014
Outline 2013 worst than expected Economy back on growth track in 2014 Why we care about Mexico Reforms will help, but Fiscal Energy The potential of the energy reform (The Texas example) Conclusions
Peso holding up well despite tapering Depreciation Beginning of the speculation about tapering First tapering announcement Other emerging currencies Mexico Appreciation Source: Banco de México and Bloomberg.
Foreign investors hold on to their Mexican government debt Millions of US dollars Beginning of the speculation about tapering First tapering announcement Gov. bond holdings Short term position Source: Banco de México & CME.
Mexican economy decelerates in 2013 Q4/Q4 Annualized growth, real and s.a. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.0-1.0-0.2-2.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013_H1 2013_H2 SOURCE: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía.
Deceleration of the Mexican economy in 2013 Slowing preceded tapering Due to: Low growth, weak trade in the global economy Lower public spending as new administration takes office Gas shortages slowing manufacturing in central Mexico Deep seated weakness in the construction sector
Economy Back on Growth Track in 2014 Index, January 2000 = 100* 140 % 8 130 6 4 120 2 110 100 YOY %) 0-2 Global economic activity index (IGAE) -4 90-6 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average. SOURCE: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. -8
Up Pace Annualized Percent Change in GDP 2014 GDP growth: 3% 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.0 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Source: Banco de Mexico Survey of Economic Forecasters, April 2014.
Total Exports Improve while Oil Exports Continue Falling Index, January 2000 = 100* 350 300 Oil 250 200 Total 150 100 Manufacturing 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average; real dollars. SOURCE: Banco de México.
Industrial Production Improving in 2014 Index, January 2000 = 100* 125 120 115 Total Manufacturing IP 110 105 100 U.S. IP 95 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average. SOURCES: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía; Federal Reserve Board.
Job Growth Improves in February and March Percent* 10 5 0-5 -10-15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Month/month; seasonally adjusted, annualized rate. SOURCE: Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social.
Peso Appreciates into 2014 Peso/dollar average 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Banco de México.
Inflation Falls in March Year/year percent change 12 10 8 6 4 2 Long-term target 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía..
Retail Sales Take a Dip Index, January 2000 = 100* 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 *Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average; real pesos. SOURCE: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía.
Texas Exports to the World Index '00Q1=100 Real $, SA 800 700 18% 4% 6% other TX Total Mexico Canada European Union (27) Asia* Latin America** China 600 500 400 2014:Q1 15% 11% 10% 36% 300 200 100 0 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 *Asia excludes China **Latin America excludes Mexico Source: Census Bureau; WiserTrade.
Non- Maquiladora- Related Products Represent 35% of Total Texas Exports to Mexico Transportation Equipment 10.8% Industrial Machinery 6.7% Fabricated and Primary Metals 7.9% Electrical Appliances 6.7% Other 7.5% Computers and Electronics 24.6% Agriculture and Food 4.0% Chemicals 9.8% Petroleum and Coal Products 13.1% Mining 3.5% Paper 1.4% Plastic and Rubber 3.7% Apparel 0.4% Note: Categories shaded in blue are non- maquiladora related. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Wisertrade.
US- Mexico trade by top 10 land ports 2013 (billions of U.S. $) Rank City Total Trade Share of Total (%) 1 Laredo, TX 168.79 43.06 2 El Paso, TX 66.85 17.06 3 Otay Mesa San Ysidro, CA 34.75 8.87 4 Hidalgo, TX 26.84 6.85 5 Nogales, AZ 23.52 6.00 6 Eagle Pass, TX 21.65 5.52 7 Santa Teresa, NM 19.89 5.07 8 Brownsville Cameron, TX 15.39 4.00 9 Calexico, CA 7.28 1.86 10 Del Rio, TX 4.11 1.05 11 Other 2.87 0.73 Source: Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development, Texas A&M
has been the top exporter of auto parts since 2001 (Share of U.S. auto parts imports)
Mexico Tops Japan as the No. 2 Supplier of Motor Vehicles to the US (Share of U.S. motor vehicle imports)
Maquiladoras impact by border city 10 percent increase in maquiladora output leads to an increase in the adjacent U.S. city as follows: 3 percent increase in total employment in El Paso 3.6 percent increase in total employment in Laredo 1.9 percent increase in total employment in Brownsville 5.9 percent increase in total employment in McAllen
Reforms will help, but in the medium to long term Energy Open whole production chain to private investment Financial Boost access to credit Telecom and Competition Boost market competition and break dominant firms Labor Enhance flexibility in the labor market Education Seeks to improve education quality Fiscal Increase tax revenue by increasing VAT and close loopholes
Growing pains from the reforms in the short run Consumer confidence (Quarterly observations, s.a.) Consumer price index (Year- over- Year growth, s.a.) Index, Jan. 2003=100
Pemex Investment Doesn't Reverse Mexican Crude Production Decline Million barrels per day 3.6 Billion pesos 350 3.4 300 3.2 Production 250 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 Pemex investment on production and exploration for oil 200 150 100 50 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SOURCES: U.S. Department of Energy; Bloomberg. 0
Pemex Loses Money Due to Heavy Tax Burden Billion dollars 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Operating income Taxes Profit 10 0-10 - 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 SOURCES: Bloomberg ; IMF.
Percent 2.0 Mexico's Government Deficit More Than Three Times Higher Without Pemex 0.0 Gov. deficit as % GDP Gov. deficit as % GDP w/out Pemex revenue - 2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0-12.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SOURCES: Secretary of Housing and Public Credit (SHCP) and author's calculations.
Reforma Energética Profit- sharing envisions government payment to oil companies based on a % of the revenue generated after exploration and production costs are recovered. The outside firms would not own a share of production. Production sharing will provide for participating companies to be compensated based on a % of production, after cost recovery. Licensing will allow companies to acquire possession of hydrocarbons at the wellhead, upon the payment of taxes, if commercial production occurs. Service contracts call for cash payment to companies that undertake exploration and production activities. The firms will be paid even if production never occurs.
The Texas Example
Oil and gas production Crude Oil (mb/d) World 75.6 Russia 9.9 Saudi Arabia 9.8 U.S. 8.1 (Jan 2014) Canada 3.1 Texas 2.8 (Nov 2013) Mexico 2.6 Venezuela 2.2 Norway 1.6 Libya 1.4 Qatar 1.3 Natural Gas (tcf) World 122.8 U.S. 25.3 Russia 23.8 Texas 7.5 Iran 6.1 Canada 5.7 Qatar 4.9 Norway 3.7 Saudi Arabia 3.6 Algeria 3.5 Mexico 1.8
Outlook: 5 percent growth by the end of sexenio Effects of the structural reforms on annual potential GDP growth rates Percentage points Average in the next 5 years Energy Reform 0.70 Financial Reform 0.36 Telecommunications Reform 0.24 Fiscal Reform 0.18 Total Effect 1.48 Source: SHCP Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2014
Conclusion Mexico strong fundamentals Past reforms paying off so handle tapering well New reforms hurt in short term Promise to pay off in the medium to long run If carefully and deliberately implemented
Maquiladoras drive employment growth in Texas border cities Title in here Estimation method: IV El Paso Laredo McAllen Brownsville City Level 2.77* 4.62 6.58* 2.21 Construction 0.20 3.19 4.04* 1.29* Manufacturing - 1.28 1.02 1.64 0.66 Transportation 5.30* 7.21* 6.63* 4.6* Wholesale 0.43 1.96 4.01* 0.84 Retail 1.31 0.66 3.21* 1.34* FIRE 2.12* 8.23* 4.63* 0.64 Services 1.84* 5.93* 7.38* 3.89* Notes: This table shows elasticity estimates. That is the table shows the percentage increase in local employment from a 10 percent increase in maquiladora production for each Texas Border Cities. * indicates significant at the 10% level. Source: J. Cañas Maquiladoras on U.S. Border
The impact has switched from manufacturing to services Texas border cities supply maquiladoras business services such as accounting and legal, transportation and warehousing Good news since these type of jobs pay higher wages
Per capita income in Texas border cities, (As a share of the US level) 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 Brownsville- Harlingen, TX Laredo, TX Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics El Paso, TX McAllen- Edinburg- Mission, TX
Chart 15 Mexican Inflation In a Downward Trend As the Peso Gains Some Ground Year/Year Percent Change, SA 14 Pesos per dollar 16 12 14 10 Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate 12 8 10 6 Mexican CPI 8 6 4 2 Long- Term CPI Target (3%) Mexican Core CPI 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: Banco de Mexico; INEGI. 0