Merseyside Road Safety Partnership s Annual Road Traffic Casualties Report 2015
Contents 1. Overview of KSI s 2 2. Cyclists 4 3. Motorcyclists 8 4. Senior Road Users 10 5. Pedestrians 14 6. Car Drivers 16 7. Summary and Recommendations 17 February 16 Page 1
1. Overview of KSI s This annual report includes a summary of progress to date towards meeting Merseyside s Local Transport Plan road safety target, plus a detailed breakdown of Killed and Seriously Injured (KSI) road casualties. In 2011, following the success of reaching the 2010 national KSI reduction target the Merseyside Road Safety Partnership agreed to a target of 400 KSI casualties by 2020 and this was incorporated into the Merseyside Local Transport Plan (LTP). Preliminary data suggests 2015 saw the second highest number of KSI s since 2006 (588). After 2010 there was a 20% rise in KSI s to 2014 s peak of 613 followed by a 4% fall last year to 588 which is 29% above the target trajectory and 15% above the lowest year on record 2010. Figure 1 When broken down by Local Authority (LA) only Knowsley has shown a significant reduction in 2015 from their 2010 KSI figure with a 16% reduction. St Helens and Liverpool have broadly similar numbers to 2010 and there has been a large rise in Sefton following consecutive rises in each year since 2010 and KSI s are now 65% higher. After rises in the last 3 years Wirral are now 35% higher than 2010 and these 2 LA s are responsible for the rise in the Merseyside figure by 15% (Table 1). February 16 Page 2
KSI Casualties by Local Authority: % Change 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 from 2010 Knowsley 55 41 64 62 58 46-16% Liverpool 229 195 243 204 254 226-1% Sefton 74 87 89 92 94 122 65% St Helens 45 73 70 73 67 48 7% Wirral 108 126 99 126 140 146 35% Merseyside 511 522 565 557 613 588 15% Table 1 Four main casualty groups make up 98% of the KSI s on Merseyside: pedestrians, pedal cyclists, motorcyclists and in-car casualties. The distribution of the KSI s between the major casualty groups has changed significantly over the last 10 12 years (Figure 1) with in-car casualties half the number of 2004 and 9% lower than 2010. They comprised 45% of KSI s in 2004 and are down to less than 30% last year. In the same time frame cyclist KSI s have increased their proportion from 5% of KSI s to 15% and motorcyclists from 12% to 22%. Motorcyclist KSI s have more than doubled since 2010. Pedestrian KSI s are at the same level as 2010 however there has been a reduction in child pedestrians and a corresponding increase in adult pedestrians. This along with a large rise in the older age groups led to the formation of the 4 thematic groups (adult pedestrians, pedal cyclists, motorcyclists and senior road users) which continue to cause concern on Merseyside. The following chapters provide further details about each of the main casualty groups. Figure 2 February 16 Page 3
2. Cyclists Cyclist KSI s have been on a rising trend for the last 10 years and have more than doubled in this time (Figure 3). Whilst cycling has become a more popular activity due to the success of the London Olympics and Tour de France the rise in KSI s on Merseyside is disproportionate to the rise in usage (62% increase 2007-2014 Table 2). Figure 3 Cyclist KSI Index Cycle Usage Index 2007 100% 100% 2008 100% 99% 2009 98% 105% 2010 149% 112% 2011 155% 121% 2012 181% 142% 2013 198% 145% 2014 200% 162% Table 2 February 16 Page 4
The rise in Merseyside is also significantly above that seen in other similar areas such as Greater Manchester and the West Midlands (Figure 4). Figure 4 The cyclist KSI s are 86% male and nearly 90% are adults. The vast majority of the rise has come from the age group 26-59 (Figure 5). Failed to look properly is by far the largest causation factor and can be applied to both the cyclist and car driver (Table 3). 70% of child cyclists have fail to look properly attributed to them and 50% of adult cyclists. The age of car drivers in conflict with cyclist s peaks between 45 and 54 but is fairly well spread between 25 and 54 (Table 4) Fatal Serious KSI 405 Failed to look properly (Driver/Rider - Error) 3 275 278 406 Failed to judge other person's path/speed (Driver/Rider - Error) 1 98 99 403 Poor turn or manoeuvre (Driver/Rider - Error) 3 73 76 602 Careless/Reckless (Driver/Rider - Behaviour) 1 63 64 407 Too close to cyclist, horse or pedestrian (Driver/Rider - Error) 2 47 49 310 Cyclist entering road from pavement (Driver/Rider- Injudicious) 2 44 46 Table 3 Age of car driver under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Number of drivers 138 193 206 212 126 132 Table 4 February 16 Page 5
Figure 5 Figure 6 February 16 Page 6
All LA s have seen at least a 40% rise in Cyclist KSI s since 2007 with Sefton showing a greater than 350% rise (Figure 6) The peak times for cycling KSI s are morning and afternoon weekday rush hours (7-9am and 3-8pm) with a bigger and longer lasting peak in the afternoon Figure 7 When this data is compared to the deprivation indices which show nearly 40% of cyclist KSI s are in the most deprived 10% of society (Table 5) it is possible to suggest that a lot of the casualties may be using their bike as a cheap commuting vehicle. There is also a significant overrepresentation of the less deprived 20% and these may well be the MAMIL s who have taken up cycling to keep fit. % of Cyclist KSI's % of Merseyside Population % over-representation Most Deprived 10% 39% 31% 123% More Deprived 20% 11% 13% 85% More Deprived 30% 8% 9% 86% More Deprived 40% 4% 8% 52% More Deprived50% 9% 9% 100% Less Deprived 50% 9% 8% 113% Less Deprived 40% 8% 8% 97% Less Deprived 30% 4% 6% 65% Less Deprived 20% 7% 5% 140% Least Deprived 10% 2% 3% 67% Table 5 February 16 Page 7
3. Motorcyclists After a sharp fall in the 1980 s in the 16-25 year old age bracket (Figure 8), motorcyclist KSI s have been on a rising trend since 2007 and have more than doubled since 2010 (Figure 9). The 26-59 year old age group has not reduced in over 30 years Figure 8 Figure 9 February 16 Page 8
Similar to the cyclist casualties there are 2 main peaks in the morning and afternoon rush hours during weekdays suggesting they are being used for commuting. There is also a weekend peak around lunch time with sustained levels throughout the afternoon. (Figure10) Figure 10 The top 6 contributory factors for motorcyclists are split into 3 groups, 3 of the 6 factors are more associated with car drivers (primarily at junctions turning right), 2 are almost entirely associated with the motorcyclist (speeding/ losing control) and 1 is split almost 50/50. Overall 51% of causation factors are associated with the motorcyclist so fault is split almost 50/50. (Table 6) Bus or coach Car Goods vehicle <3.5t Goods vehicle >7.5t Goods vehicle 3.5t - 7.5t Taxi/Private hire car Motorcycle <50cc Motorcycle 50cc - 125cc Motorcycle 125cc - 500cc Motorcycle >500cc Grand Total % attributed to motorcyclist Failed to look properly 1 88 8 1 1 3 4 17 9 15 147 31% Poor turn or manoeuvre 49 7 3 4 3 13 79 25% Failed to judge other person's path or speed 1 38 2 1 1 5 7 2 6 63 32% Loss of control 1 7 13 8 23 52 98% Careless, reckless or in a hurry 18 3 1 1 3 4 3 14 47 51% Exceeding speed limit 1 2 6 4 14 27 96% Table 6 February 16 Page 9
4. Senior Road Users The average age of a KSI Casualty on Merseyside rose steadily between 1985 and 2004 but in the last 10 years the average age has increased dramatically by almost 1 year per year on average to leave the current average at 41 (Figure 11). Figure 11 The reason for the large rise over the last 10 years in the average age is two-fold, the 58% reduction in child KSI s and the 53% increase in 60+ KSI s (Table 7). Age 2005 2015 % Change 0-15 146 62-58% 16-25 195 137-30% 26-59 276 253-8% 60+ 89 136 53% Table 7 The rise in the 60+ age group has been seen in all sections of the group (although preliminary 2015 data suggests a fall in 60-64 year old KSI s) with casualties aged 80+ seeing the biggest increase of 350% (Figure 12). February 16 Page 10
Figure 12 Above the age of 70 the chance of being seriously injured if involved in a collision increases substantially. 16% of casualties in their 60 s are killed or seriously injured, rising to 29% of people in their 70 s and 37% of those 80+ (Figure 13). The Office for National Statistics projects the proportion of the UK population aged 75 and over will grow from 7.9% in 2012 to 13% in 2037 and the number of over 80 s is set to more than double to 6.1m. Due to their vulnerability and the increase in population senior road users are likely to make up an even greater proportion of KSI s in future. Figure 13 February 16 Page 11
Senior road users can be split into 3 main groups, pedestrians, drivers and passengers. The passengers are 70% of the time in cars and 17% in PSV s (buses) with some in HGV s, taxi s etc. 80% of the drivers of these vehicles are over 30 with more than a third over 60. The pedestrian contributory factors are skewed towards pedestrian fault with 6 of the top 9 being pedestrian related factors and the biggest contributory factor is the pedestrian failing to look properly (Table 8). 802 Failed to look properly (Pedestrian) 11 120 131 405 Failed to look properly (Driver/Rider - Error) 8 114 122 803 Failed to judge vehicle's path/speed (Pedestrian) 6 44 50 801 Crossed road masked by stationary or parked vehicle (Pedestrian) 0 24 24 808 Careless/Reckless (Pedestrian) 0 21 21 406 Failed to judge other person's path/speed (Driver/Rider - Error) 1 20 21 602 Careless/Reckless (Driver/Rider - Behaviour) 2 16 18 810 Disability or illness (Pedestrian) 2 16 18 809 Pedestrian wearing dark clothing at night (Pedestrian) 1 17 18 Table 8 62% of contributory factors in collisions involving 60+ drivers are attributed to the senior driver rather than the driver of the other car. I.e. they are at fault in more collisions than average rather than just being frailer due to age. Table 9 shows the top contributory factors associated with the senior driver. Fatal Serious KSI Fatal Serious KSI 405 Failed to look properly (Driver/Rider - Error) 8 94 102 406 Failed to judge other person's path/speed (Driver/Rider - Error) 2 48 50 505 Illness or disability, mental or physical (Driver/Rider - Impairment) 5 37 42 410 Loss of control (Driver/Rider - Error) 2 39 41 403 Poor turn or manoeuvre (Driver/Rider - Error) 1 29 30 306 Exceeding speed limit (Driver/Rider - Injudicious) 5 11 16 602 Careless/Reckless (Driver/Rider - Behaviour) 0 15 15 Table 9 The % of pedestrians and in-car casualties that are over 60 has already doubled over the last 10 years and this group now make up over a third of pedestrian KSI s and a quarter of in-car KSI s. (Figure 14) February 16 Page 12
Figure 14 February 16 Page 13
5. Pedestrians After a large fall in the number of pedestrian KSI s in the 90 s and early 2000 s the number has stagnated between 175 and 211 for most of the last decade. Historically for the 25 years prior to 2006 the number of child and adult pedestrian KSI s have almost mirrored each other with child pedestrians making up 42 54% of the total every year on record until 2008. From 2005 onwards the trends have diverged and the child pedestrian KSI s have continued to fall whilst the adult pedestrian KSI s have risen (Figure 15). Children now make up only 26% of the pedestrian KSI s, almost half of the long term average of 48%. Figure 15 Seven of the top 8 contributory factors for the adult pedestrian group are pedestrian related with them being responsible for failing to look properly in a significant number of the collisions. The pedestrian being impaired by alcohol also appears in a disproportionately large number of the fatal collisions. (Table 10) February 16 Page 14
Fatal Serious KSI 802 Failed to look properly (Pedestrian) 3 166 169 806 Impaired by alcohol (Pedestrian) 5 91 96 405 Failed to look properly (Driver/Rider - Error) 1 93 94 808 Careless/Reckless (Pedestrian) 0 57 57 803 Failed to judge vehicle's path/speed (Pedestrian) 1 54 55 801 Crossed road masked by stationary or parked vehicle (Pedestrian) 1 32 33 809 Pedestrian wearing dark clothing at night (Pedestrian) 2 31 33 804 Wrong use of pedestrian crossing (Pedestrian) 0 21 21 Table 10 Adult pedestrian KSI casualties are highest between November and February (Figure 16) and nearly 90% occur on 30 mph roads. 55% are on A and B class main roads. Over 75% of pedestrians are hit by car drivers (5% PSV s, 8% HGV s, 7% taxi s, 2.5% motorcycles, 2.5% other) Figure 16 February 16 Page 15
6. Car Drivers In-car KSI s have fallen dramatically from their recent peak in 2004 and despite a small correction upwards in the last couple of years the number of KSI s is half the number of the 2004 peak. Figure 17 The reduction hasn t been seen equally across all age ranges, with 0-16 and 17-25 year olds seeing the biggest reductions of 71% and 64% respectively. The core age group 26-59 have seen a 52% reduction whilst the 60+ have seen an 8% rise (Table 11). 2004 % of 2004 Total 2015 % of 2015 Total Reduction 0-16 28 8% 8 5% -71% 17-25 121 35% 44 26% -64% 26-59 154 45% 74 44% -52% 60+ 39 11% 42 25% 8% Total 342 168-51% Table 11 February 16 Page 16
A recent report by the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) in conjunction with the RAC Foundation on graduated driving licences showed that Merseyside has the lowest proportion of casualties that involved a young driver outside of London. (http://www.racfoundation.org/assets/rac_foundation/content/downloadables/graduated_driver_li censing_regional_analysis_trl_270514.pdf) The average age of a car driver involved in a KSI now stands at 43.3, up from 36.6 in 2005 7. Summary and Recommendations The road safety landscape in Merseyside has changed significantly in the last 10 years away from what are seen as the traditional key casualty groups of young/ novice drivers and child pedestrians. We have had great success in reducing these casualties but now the focus must change so that similar reductions can be seen in the current and emerging risk groups. 4 Thematic groups were set up in February 2013 consisting of pedal cyclists, motorcyclists, senior road users and adult pedestrians. With limited resources these groups haven t yet been able to deliver significant interventions to reduce KSI s. These 4 groups are still the key casualty concerns with cyclists and motorcyclists in particular presenting a big risk to Merseyside achieving its goal of reducing death and injury on the roads and targeted interventions are required for these groups. Senior road users are becoming an increasingly large share of the KSI s and with the forecast rises in the senior population this is something that is likely to continue. Road safety funding and resources have been severely reduced with the government s austerity program which makes cooperation and partnership working even more important. Recommendations: Keep the 4 thematic groups Bids to the Partnership should only come from these groups Each partner provide staff time to perform Merseyside wide initiatives as part of these groups (minimum 1 staff member day per organisation per month) February 16 Page 17