Addressing footfall decline St Helier Professor Dominic Medway and Professor Cathy Parker www.placemanagement/bdsu #HSUK2020
49.40% 45.70% 42.20% 39.80% 37.90% 2000 2006 2011 2014 2017 Town centre retail spend falling Base data Parliament 2014: Projection IPM
Axis Title 8.66 8.22 7.98 7.47 7.67 7.36 7.04 7.35 7.1 7.39 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mean UK Footfall (millions) Data: Springboard
UK online retail sales share 25% 20% 15% 16.8% 21.5% 10% 5% 1.6% 0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Centre for Retail Research 2013/2016, UK e-retail
Share of retail sales online: 2016 Japan Sweden France Europe mean S Korea Germany USA UK 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Centre for Retail Research 2016
retailers with a strong web offering now need just 70 high street stores to create a national presence compared to 250 in the mid 2000s Centre for Retail Research
Retail is not dead. It is changing. It is polarising. There are towns in this country that may never see retail occupiers coming back into their high street again. Robert Noel, Land Securities
2007-2014 27,000 shops closed
10 years of footfall from 20 UK towns/cities
Vitality and Viability
Literature review finding the evidence
A literature review? Why bother? People do not want to go into six different shops for six different articles; they prefer to buy the lot in one shop. The American Grocer, 1892 For better or worse this distributive revolution is carrying us away from shopkeeping to mass distribution McNair, 1931
201 factors influence vitality and viability
1.How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street 2.How much control a location has over the factor
Group work What are 5 key factors affecting the vitality and viability of St Helier? What can you do to change these factors? Are some easier to influe than others?
1.How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street 2.How much control a location has over the factor
How much control over a factor HSUK 2020 model Child-minding centre Not worth it Deliveries Opening hours Get on with it! Leadership Forget it Political climate Methods of classification Live with it Spatial structure Location How much each factor influences vitality and viability
How much town can influence factor 3.9 APPEARANCE 3.7 PLACE MARKETING NECESSITIES 3.5 PLACE ASSURANCE ENTERTAINMENT AND LEISURE RECREATIONAL SPACE NETWORKS & PARTNERSHIPS Anchors EXPERIENCE ACTIVITY HOURS MANAGEMENT MERCHANDISE VISION&STRATEGY 3.3 ADAPTABILITY Chain vs independent WALKING DIVERSITY RETAILERS 3.1 2.9 Safety/crime LIVEABLE ATTRACTIVENESS Comparison/convenience Barriers to Entry Top 25 factors ACCESSIBLE 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 How much factor influences vitality and viability
How much control do locations have? 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Delphi Average
Centre satisfaction vs online spend 90 80 70 60 % centre satisfaction 50 40 30 20 10 % clothing spend online 0 Savills, Verdict 2016
The change in retail is permanent not cyclical. Most town centres have lost their sense of purpose. Retail has throttled out other uses. Distressed Retail Property Tackforce
Footfall data: indicator of vitality
Are all centres the same?
17 million hourly footfall counts On average each man, woman and child counted 120 times 8 billion people movements counted 105 UK towns and cities
+ 16,999,950 rows of data
What does footfall tell us?
Footfall: The perceived wisdom Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Monthly for all years Monthly for standard year
Can we find groups of monthly signatures with something in common? We have 12 months to look at Jan Dec, can we see any patterns? We don t know what to look for. Let a clustering algorithm (K-means) tell us what patterns in the 12 monthly footfall values lead to separate groups. We can t easily observe 12 variables at once...
K means flow. 1. Comparison Inputs: standard monthly footfall by town K Means Clustering 2. Holiday 3. Speciality Multifunctional Classification Types 1 2 3 4
Centroids: K Means K = 4 0f 112 towns
What type of town are you? 1. Comparison Shopping Town
Comparison Shopping towns Wide range of retail choice Strong retail anchor(s) Large catchment area Accessible by choice of means of transport Organise to compete with other comparison towns and channels
What type of town are you? 2. Holiday town
Holiday town Summer peak in visitors from potentially wide area Anchor may be beach or major attraction (not in town centre) Retail may not serve local community, particularly out of season Organise themselves for fun and entertainment, long hours in Summer, but could they offer more?
What type of town are you? 3. Speciality town
Speciality towns Offer something unique and special Anchor(s) not retail Attract visitors but serve local population Have longer dwell time Organise to protect and promote identity and positioning
What type of town are you? 4. Convenience town
Convenience town Focused on local community offer, opening times, events etc Anchor is work, public transport, food Offer convenient mix of goods and services Accessible and locally connected
Convenience town Organise themselves to: manage accessibility increase concentration offer reliability customer service seek to augment offer (click & collect, free wifi, start-up facilities, pop-ups etc) so enhancing convenience
Group work Using the 4 town types, how would you classify St Helier?
1. Comparison Shopping Town 2. Holiday town 3. Speciality Town 4. Convenience Town
Axis Title Data: Springb 8.66 8.22 7.98 9.32 9.5 9.29 9.21 7.47 7.67 7.36 7.04 8.92 9 8.78 7.35 7.1 7.39 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mean UK vs St Helier Footfall (millions)
A Framework for Regeneration and Development: The 4Rs Special Issue of the Journal of Place Management and Development Forthcoming
REPOSITIONING REINVENTING REBRANDING RESTRUCTURING
Poor understanding of catchment/activity? REPOSITIONING Poor perceptions? Poor offer? REINVENTING The wrong action/no action? REBRANDING RESTRUCTURING
If Decision making and management must become less hierarchical and myopic and more place-based and porous to allow more intelligence and input from the location. Multifunctional Centres 2015 www.placemanagement.org
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