Introduction The key principle behind this system is as simple as it is brilliant find horses that are under-bet by the market, and then bet on them ourselves. What is under-betting? Under-betting is when a horse that has a very strong chance of winning its race has little money placed on it by bettors. This underestimation means that the bookies will keep its odds higher than they should. This is a fantastic blind spot of the bookies that we can take advantage of. After all if huge amounts of money aren t being placed upon a horse, why should they suspect it of winning? How do we find an under-bet horse? The key to this is handicap races. As I ll explain later in this guide, we will only be applying this system to handicap races. What advantages do handicap races give us? A handicap race is when each horse s strength is assessed by the British Horseracing Authority and given a weight to bear during the race. This is used to even the contest. The slightly more complicated nature of handicap races tends to throw off punters they end up paying too much attention to it. Knowing that, we have a huge advantage! Now that we ve covered the basics, let s get down to it.
Making Your Selections As you will see as we progress through this guide, there are very few, basic rules which you must adhere to for this system to work. However, it is vital that there is absolutely no variation from them as outlined. Follow these and you ll be laughing all the way to the bank! Picking a Race Date Geography We can select any race all year except in the months of April, May and June. This is because we need the summer jumps form to come into line. We will be picking races strictly from within the UK. We do not use IRE races. Going Conditions Good, good to soft or heavy. Any of the 3 works. Race Type Subdivision of National Hunt National Hunt races only. These can either be hurdle or steeplechase as a general rule, if the horses must jump an obstacle then it is a National Hunt race. Steeplechase only. This is a race where the horse must jump more than a simple barrier be it a hedge, stretch of water, or anything of the like. Handicap? Yes. Handicap races only.
Class We will be looking solely at races for Class 5 horses. Every race is assigned a certain class. Class 5 horses are not as successful as those in the 4 classes above them. This means that the majority of punters overlook them. Similarly, their 85% win percentage tends to throw off bettors, as they find them difficult to predict. But not us! Those are the only rules you have to follow when finding a race. Think of them as filters of sorts whenever you look for a race you want to be scanning through your options ticking off each one of those categories one by one. Why do we only choose the races listed above? The reasoning is very simple. By narrowing down our potential races to handicap chases in the height of National Hunt peak season, on less-than-ideal turf, with confusing handicaps thrown in, we drastically increase our likelihood of finding under-bet favourites. This leads us to our next point Picking a Horse Now pay attention, because I m only going to explain this once. There is one, very crucial method that we follow when picking our horse. Always pick the favourite.
That s it. You re done. Once you ve found a race, you simply back the favourite. This is the horse that has the very lowest odds out of all the competitors. Now it s becoming a little easier to understand how the system works. Once we make as sure as absolutely possible that we have an under-bet race, we can then make good, consistent money from backing the favourite.
Placing Your Bets This system is structured around 1 unit bets. However much money you choose to put towards this method, you divide into 50 units. Example: 100 50 = 2 Therefore 1 unit = 2 If you were to follow the example, you would then be betting 2 at a time, as that is how much one of your units is worth. However after every single bet you place, win or lose, you must recalculate the value of your unit. This ensures that as you win more money, you can increase the size of your winnings whilst keeping the same amount of risk attached proportional. Example: Your 2 unit bet backing a horse with odds of 2.0 wins you 2 in profit. This is then added to your 100 bankroll to give you 102. When we re-calculate that number to give you 50 units, each unit is worth 2.04 (102 50 = 2.04). This is then the amount of money you stake on your next race of choice. Simple, right? It goes without saying that if you want to make more money then you should start with a larger bankroll. 50 is simply a nice round number to demonstrate the maths by feel free to bet as much as you re comfortable with.
Finding a Race Now we re going to look at how to find a race, which is subject to all of the categories outlined in the Making Your Selections chapter. First off, go to your bookmaker website of choice. For those of you just starting out Racing Post, Timeform, Betfair and Sportinglife are all good choices. Take some time to look around them and get familiar with their layouts and decide upon whichever suits you best. Throughout this guide I ll be using Racing Post to provide screenshots. Step 1 - Geography Firstly, we find ourselves a British racecourse. If you re unsure whether a course listed is British, simply use an internet search engine to find out more about it. Here we ve selected Ffos Las racecourse in Wales.
Step 2 Going Next we find a race with the required going. Going is simply a term for the quality of the turf the horse will be racing upon. By narrowing our races to either good, good to soft or heavy, we are ensuring the turf is as troublesome for the horses as possible. This should see a flattening of the odds as punters are reluctant to back the favourite. Here we can see, just under the meeting info for the course, that the going is listed as heavy. Simple.
Step 3 Race Type This stage is slightly less clear-cut compared to finding the going, as often websites differ in how they phrase the style of race. As mentioned, we will only be looking for steeplechase events. However, betting sites and racecards will often refer to these as chase events for short. Often we will need to look for this at the same time as Step 4 Handicap The handicapping. Remember, we are only looking for handicap races. If we look at the screenshot below, we can see two examples of races which fit all of the conditions listed so far the 1:40 and the 3:50.
Step 5 Race Class Now we must narrow down our search even further, by looking for a race for Class 5 horses only. This requires delving a little deeper, and a little trial and error, by clicking on the listed races and searching for details on the class of the race. Once again this is nice and easy to find, as the class is listed right next to the name of the race. Take notice though that this is the 3:50 race, as our other option (the 1:40), was for Class 4 horses. We have now finished our search for a race!
Making Your Pick Now that we have our race selected, all that is left to do is back our horse of choice. As mentioned before, the only rule you must adhere to when doing this is to pick the favourite. There are no other factors to consider. Here I ve taken some selections from a random upcoming race, which matches the criteria of our system, to explain what you need to be looking for when assessing the odds. It is important to bear in mind that different sites and bookmakers will express their odds in different manners. Here we can see the odds for each horse and rider listed in the red box in the farthest-right column. This site has chosen to use fractional betting. This is a conventional style favoured by British bookies.
For example, here Makinson Lane is priced at 16. This means he is 16/1 to win. Therefore if you place 1 upon him, you would receive 16 plus your original 1 stake in return should he win. We are not interested in Makinson Lane though, as it is nowhere near the favourite to win. If we look further up to the top of the list we can see Ashmaly. Ashmaly is priced at 4/6. This is what is known as an odds-on price, as any money you place on the horse will return less than the original stake in profit. For example if you were to place 1 upon Ashmaly, you would receive 0.67 in profit plus your original 1 stake in return, should he win. This would be the horse that we place our bet upon. Whilst these odds may not seem very high, we must consider that it is the overwhelming favourite. Because of the filters we ve applied with our system we are receiving considerably greater odds than we would on another race with different conditions.
We hope you enjoy our system which at the time of writing has actually achie ed a massi e 22, to stakes o er the last four years. ind egards ports et Alliance