NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 11 ARTICLES 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTH EAST ASIA David MCMINN Independent Scholar mcminn56@yahoo.com Abstract: A 9/56 year cycle has been established in the timing of major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The prospect of this cycle showing up in patterns of historic South East Asian earthquakes (M 7.8) was assessed in some detail. These events were found to fall preferentially in 54/56 year grids. Such patterns were also evident in the timing of large earthquakes in Japan Kamchatka, Alaska and Chile Peru and were a feature of large earthquakes around the Pacific Rim. Additionally, 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids yielded significance for South East Asian quakes. Overall, the 9/56 year hypothesis was well supported. Keywords: 9/56 year, 54/56 year, earthquakes, cycles, Indonesia, Philippines. Introduction T he 54/56 year grids were first established in the timing of financial panics in the USA and Western Europe (McMinn, 1986, 1993) and then extrapolated to world mega earthquakes (M 8.6) since the late 19th century (see Appendix 1). Similar 54/56 year grids could be produced for major earthquakes (M 7.8) in Alaska and Japan Kamchatka (McMinn, 2014a), as well as in Chile Peru (McMinn, 2014b). Some common seismic patterns were clearly evident around the Ring of Fire. Such grids were also hypothesised to arise in earthquake cycles for South East Asia (M 7.8) over the past 120 years. This was verified by the findings, thereby offering further support for a strong 54/56 year effect in Pacific earthquakes. Additional 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids were also established for large South East Asian earthquakes (M 7.8). The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid with intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and multiples of 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). Critical events will cluster with statistical significance in these patterns. The 56 year sequences were numbered in accordance with McMinn (1993), with 1817, 1873, 1929, 1985 being designated as Sequence 01; 1818, 1874, 1930, 1986 as Sequence 02 and so forth. McMinn (Appendix 2, 2002) presented the full numbering. In the accompanying tables, the dates were expressed as YYYYMMDD and the year ending November 24 was considered to be the year of best fit. The database of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) was accessed to compile a listing of major earthquakes (M 7.8) taking place in South East Asia (see Appendix 2). For the purposes of this paper, South East Asia was taken to cover Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. It also included parts of eastern India (Assam and the Nicobar and Andaman Islands), as well as Yunnan in south west China. Indonesia Indonesia is by far the most seismically active country in South East Asia and was thus considered separately. There have been 44 large Indonesian events (M 7.8) since 1790 (see Appendix 2), of which 25 showed up in the 9/56 year grid in Table 1 (significant p <.001). 12 Table 1 9/56 YEAR CYCLE: MAJOR INDONESIAN QUAKES 1790-2013 M 7.8 Year ending November 24 21 30 39 48 01 10 19 28 1790 1799 18 1817 18 1835 1844 1828 1837 1846 1855 1864 1873 1882 1891 1900 0523 1007 1884 1893 1902 1911 1920 1929 1938 1947 1956
12 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 1940 1939 1221 0101 0217 0201 1949 1958 1967 1976 1985 1994 0602 2005 0328 12 Continued. 37 46 1797 0210 1853 1852 1125 1909 1918 1118 2014 55 17 1806 1815 1824 1833 1124 1862 1871 1880 1889 0906 1927 1936 1935 35 44 1795 1804 1842 1851 1860 1898 1907 0104 1907 0625 1945 1954 1963 1104 1965 1974 1983 1992 2001 0406 1025 2021 2019 2003 1916 1916 1972 0611 South East Asia The ensuing analysis was limited to the post 1898 era, because 7 events took place in and thus any findings based on data including this year would be heavily biased. For South East Asia, significance could be achieved via an 18/56 year grid as presented in Table 2. Of the 56 earthquakes experienced since 1898, some 23 took place in this arrangement (significant p <.001). The year did not appear in the table, but significance was still at p <.01 even if it was included in the assessment. 12 30 1902 1901 1214 Table 2 18/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1898 M 7.8 Year ending November 24 48 10 1920 1938 0201 28 1900 1007 46 1918 15 1918 1118 1936 1935 1956 1974 1992 0406 1025 44 1898 1916 1916 1954 1972 0611 06 1934 0214 1990 0716 24 1952 0319 20 42 1914 05 1970 0104
1940 1939 1221 1958 1976 16 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 13 1994 0602 2014 0101 0217 54/56 Year Grids The top 6 earthquakes for South East Asia (M 8.6) fell in the same two 54/56 year grids that were established for world mega quakes (see Appendix 1). However, large South East Asian events (M 7.8) appeared selectively in three 54/56 year patterns as shown in Appendix 4. These can be combined to give a layout with intervals repeating 9, 9, 36, 9, 9, 36, 9, 9.. years on the horizontal and 56 years on the vertical (denoted as a 9-9-36/56 year cycle) (see Table 3). Of the 56 major South East Asian quakes post 1898, some 25 showed up in this configuration (significant p <.01). 14 1942 04 23 + 9 1951 0319 1998 + 9 2007 2007 Continued. 28 + 9 1900 1007 Table 3 9-9-36/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1898 M 7.8 Year ending November 24 32 1895 + 9 1904 1903 12 + 36 1940 1939 1221 + 9 1960 + 36 0101 0217 + 9 2016 + 36 1936 1935 17 21 30 1893 + 9 1902 1901 1214 10 + 36 1938 0201 + 9 1949 + 9 1958 + 36 1994 0602 + 9 2005 0328 12 + 9 2014 06 1898 + 36 1934 0214 + 9 1945 + 9 1954 + 36 1990 0716 + 9 1956 + 36 1992 + 9 2001 + 9 0406 1025 + 9 Mega earthquakes (M 8.5) have been highlighted in Red. 15 + 9 1943 0525 1943 0723 24 1896 + 9 1952 0319 + 9 1999 + 9 20 19 1891 + 9 1947 0729 + 9 2003 Discussion and Conclusions Overall, a 54/56 year effect was confirmed for the timing of large South East Asian earthquakes (M 7.8).
14 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org Significance could be produced via the 9-9-36/56 year grid as presented in Table 3. Interestingly, 9-45/56 year patterns applied to earthquakes in Japan Kamchatka, Chile Peru and Alaska (McMinn, 2014a, 2014b) and thus the 9-9-36/56 year grid for South East Asia was anomalous. Correlates could also be realised for 9/56 year and 18/56 year grids for South East Asian earthquakes. s 21, 23, 25,, 28, 30, & 32 appeared in Grids A & B for World mega quakes (see Appendix 1), as well as in Grids A & B for large quakes in South East Asia (see Appendix 4). Thus there was overlap between the 54/56 year grids for these phenomena. This was a common theme around the Pacific Rim (see Table 4), because the same 56 year sequences tended to show up in the various 54./56 year grids. Table 4 SHARED 56 YEAR SEQUENCES IN THE 54/56 YEAR SEISMIC GRIDS Grid A Grid B Source Sequence Numbers Sequence Numbers Appendix 1 this paper World Mega Quakes 29, 27, 25, 23, 21 36, 34, 32, 30, 28, McMinn (2011b) South East Asia 25, 23, 21 32, 30, 28, Appendix 4 this paper Japan - Kamchatka 29, 27, 25, 23, 21 na Table 1, McMinn (2014a) Alaska 29 27 36, 34, 32, 30, 28, Table 2, McMinn (2014a) Chile - Peru na 34, 32, 30, 28, Table 3 McMinn (2014b) World mega quakes recorded M 8.6, whereas the other samples around the Pacific Rim included all large quakes M 7.8. Source: McMinn (2014b). Great or giant mega thrust earthquakes for Sumatra were recorded in 1797, 1833, 1861,, 2005 and 2007 (Natawidjaja et al, 2009). The three earliest events fall in a 9 year subcycle (see Table 5) that also included the 1815 Mt Tambora volcanic eruption in south central Indonesia. The latter had a Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7 and was one of the biggest world eruptions in the last 10,000 years. NB: Natawidjaja et al (2009) estimated the magnitudes for the 1797 and 1833 events to be M 8.5 and M 8.7-8.9 respectively. These magnitudes were considerably higher than those given by the NGDC. 37 1797 Feb10 46 Table 5 SUMATRAN MEGATHRUST QUAKES IN A 9 YEAR SUBCYCLE 12.2 months beginning February 10 55 1806 1815 Apr10 17 1824 1833 Nov24 Feb 10, 1797. South west Sumatra. M 8.5. Nov 24, 1833. Sumatra. M 8.7-8.9 Feb 16, 1861. Lagundi. M 8.5. Apr 10, 1815 Mt Tambora eruption. VEI 7. Estimated magnitudes as given by Natawidjaja et al (2009). 35 44 1795 1804 1842 1851 1860 1861 Feb16 Grids based on 54/56 years were exceedingly important in the timing of large earthquakes around the Pacific Basin. These patterns were hypothesised to arise from Moon Sun tidal harmonics as proposed by McMinn (2011a). How the Moon Sun effect activated terrestrial seismic events remained completely unknown and a solution lies well outside prevailing paradigms in seismology.
NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 15 Acknowledgements I would like to thank the editor Dong Choi and the reviewers for their input in the publishing of this paper. As always their contribution was most appreciated. I am also very indebted to the National Geophysical Data Center for producing the extensive database upon which this paper was based. Such historic catalogues are extremely valuable in the study of earthquake and eruption cycles over recent centuries. References McMinn, D., 1986. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug 25-29. McMinn, D., 1993. Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical. Analysts Association Newsletter. p. 21-25. McMinn, D.,. Financial Crises & The Number 56. Cycles, v. 46, no. 1, p. 11-17. August. McMinn, D., 2002. 9/56 Year Cycle: Financial Crises. http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/fcnum56.htm McMinn, D., 2006. Market Timing by The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing. 163p. McMinn, D., 2011a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 58, p. 33-44. March. McMinn, D., 2011b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Record Earthquakes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p. 88-104. June. McMinn, D., 2011c, 9/56 Year Cycle: Hurricanes. New Concepts In Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p. 105-111. June. McMinn, D., 2011d. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Selected Countries. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 60, p. 9-37. September. McMinn, D.,. 9/56 Year Cycle: World Mega Volcanic Eruptions. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 64, p. 7-18. September. McMinn, D.. 2014a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Japan, Kamchatka and Alaska. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, v. 2, no. 1, p. 4-13. March. McMinn, D.. 2014b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in The Pacific Rim of South America. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, v. 2, no 2, p. 4-13. June. Natawidjaja, D. H et al,. 2006. Source Parameters of The Great Sumatran Megathrust Earthquakes of 1797 and 1833 Inferred from Coral Microatolls. Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 111. Issue B6. June. National Geophysical Data Center. The Significant Earthquake Database. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=101650&s=1&d=1 Salleh, A., 2011. Mega-quake Clusters Unlikely: Study. ABC Science. Dec 20. http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2011/12/20/3394245.htm US Geological Survey. Largest Earthquakes In The World Since 1900. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php Appendix 1 54/56 YEAR GRIDS: WORLD MEGA QUAKES Post 1870 M 8.6 National Geophysical Data Center Grid A 7.5 months ending March 31 29 27 25 23 21 1893 1895 1949 1899 1953 1952 Nov04 1901 1955 2009 1957 Mar09 2013 2011 Mar11 1951 1950 Aug15 2007 2005 Mar28 Dec Grid B 9 months ending June 10 36 34 32 30 28 1898 Jun05 Sep20 Sep21 1900 1954 1902 1956 Feb27 1904 1958 Apr11 1906 Jan31 1960 May22 2014
16 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 19 1962 2016 1964 Mar28 2018 2020 WORLD MEGA QUAKES: 1870 2013 M 8.6 National Geophysical Data Center Date Country Mag Sep 20 Philippines: North west Mindanao, Dapitan 8.6 Sep 21 Philippines: Mindanao, Zamboanga, Sulu 8.7 1898 Jun 05 Japan: Offshore east coast Honshu 8.7 1906 Jan 31 Ecuador: Offshore 8.6 1922 Nov 11 Chile: Atacama 8.7 1946 Apr 01 Alaska: Unimak Island 8.6 1950 Aug 15 India-China 8.6 1952 Nov 04 Russia: Kamchatka 9.0 1957 Mar 09 Alaska 8.6 1960 May 22 Chile: Puerto Montt, Valdiva 9.5 1964 Mar 28 Alaska 9.2 1965 Feb 04 Alaska: Aleutian Islands, Rat Islands 8.7 Dec Indonesia: Offshore west coast Sumatra 9.1 2005 Mar 28 Indonesia: Offshore south west Sumatra 8.6 Feb 27 Chile: Maule, Concepcion, Talcahuano 8.8 2011 Mar 11 Japan: Offshore north east Honshu 9.0 Apr11 Indonesia: Offshore north west coast Sumatra 8.6 In Grids A & B, the 56 year sequences are separated by intervals of 54 years on the horizontal. Mega quakes occurring in South East Asia (M 8.6) have been highlighted in Red. All other World mega quakes M 8.6 occurring in Girds A and B have been highlighted in Blue. The NGDC listed some 17 world mega quakes (M 8.6) since 1870, of which 14 showed up in Grids A & B. This compared with an expected 3.3. All five post 1900 mega quakes in Grid B occurred in the four months ending May 25. Source: McMinn, 2011b. Appendix 2 MAJOR EARTHQUAKES IN INDONESIA Post 1700. M 7.8 National Geophysical Data Center YYYY MM DD Location M 1797 2 10 INDONESIA: SW. SUMATRA 8.0 1818 11 8 INDONESIA: SUMBAWA ISLAND 8.5 1833 11 24 INDONESIA: SUMATRA: BENGKULU 8.3 1852 11 25 INDONESIA: MALUKU: BANDANAIRA 8.3 1861 2 16 INDONESIA: LAGUNDI, SIMUK, TELLO I 8.5 1864 5 23 INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA 7.8 1889 9 6 INDONESIA: N. MOLUCCAS ISLANDS 8.0 1899 9 29 INDONESIA: BANDA SEA 7.8 1900 10 7 INDONESIA: NW. IRIAN JAYA 7.8 1903 2 27 INDONESIA: S OF JAVA 8.1 1905 1 22 INDONESIA: MINAHASSA PENINSULA 8.4 1907 1 4 INDONESIA: NW SUMATRA 7.8 1907 6 25 INDONESIA: DJAILOLO GILOLO 7.9 1913 3 14 INDONESIA: SANGIHE ISLAND 7.8 1914 5 INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA 8.1 1916 1 13 INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA 8.1 1916 1 13 INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA 8.1 1917 8 30 INDONESIA: BANDA SEA 7.8 1918 11 18 INDONESIA: BANDA SEA 8.1 19 10 INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA 7.9 1935 12 28 INDONESIA: N SUMATRA. 7.9
NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 17 1938 2 1 INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA 8.5 1939 12 21 INDONESIA: CENTRTAL SULAWESI 8.0 1943 7 23 INDONESIA: JAVA: JOGYAKARTA 8.1 1948 3 1 INDONESIA: SERAM 7.9 1950 11 2 INDONESIA: BANDA SEA 8.1 1963 11 4 INDONESIA: BANDA SEA 8.3 1971 1 10 INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA 8.1 1972 6 11 INDONESIA: CELEBES SEA 7.8 1977 8 19 INDONESIA: SUNDA ISLANDS 8.0 1979 9 12 INDONESIA: NEW GUINEA: IRIAN JAYA 7.9 1992 12 12 INDONESIA: FLORES REGION, MAUMERE, BABI 7.8 1994 6 2 INDONESIA: JAVA 7.8 1 1 INDONESIA: SULAWESI 7.9 2 17 INDONESIA: IRIAN JAYA 8.2 2000 6 4 INDONESIA: SUMATRA: BENGKULU, ENGGANO 7.9 12 INDONESIA: SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST 9.1 2005 3 28 INDONESIA: SUMATERA: SW 8.6 2007 9 12 INDONESIA: SUMATRA 8.4 2007 9 12 INDONESIA: SUMATRA 7.9 4 6 INDONESIA: SUMATRA 7.8 10 25 INDONESIA: SUMATRA 7.8 4 11 INDONESIA: N SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST 8.6 4 11 INDONESIA: N SUMATRA: OFF WEST COAST 8.2 5 13 PHILIPPINES: MASBATE ISLAND 7.9 8 15 PHILIPPINES: LUZON: ILOCOS SUR 7.9 9 20 PHILIPPINES: NW MINDANAO: DAPITAN 8.6 9 21 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO, ZAMBOANGA, SULU 8.7 10 18 PHILIPPINES: NORTHERN SAMAR 8.1 10 20 PHILIPPINES: NORTHERN SAMAR 7.9 1901 12 14 PHILIPPINES: LUZON 7.8 1903 12 28 PHILIPPINES: DAVAO GULF 7.8 1911 7 12 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO: TALACOGON 7.8 1918 8 15 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO: COTABATO 8.3 1924 4 14 PHILIPPINES: E MINDANAO: MATI,SURIGA 8.3 1934 2 14 PHILIPPINES: LUZON 7.9 1942 4 8 PHILIPPINES: MINDORO 7.8 1943 5 25 PHILIPPINES: E OF 8.1 1948 1 24 PHILIPPINES: PANAY, ILOILO CITY, ANTIQUE 8.3 1951 3 19 PHILIPPINES: 7.8 1952 3 19 PHILIPPINES: BUTUAN 7.8 1976 8 16 PHILIPPINES: MINDANAO 8.0 1990 7 16 PHILIPPINES: BAGUIO, CABANATUAN 7.8 1912 5 23 MYANMAR: MANDALAY 8.0 1946 9 12 MYANMAR: 7.8
18 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 1881 12 31 INDIA: ANDAMAN I, NICOBAR I 7.9 6 12 INDIA: ASSAM 8.0 1947 7 29 INDIA-CHINA 7.9 1950 8 15 INDIA-CHINA 8.6 1833 9 6 CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE 8.0 1970 1 4 CHINA: YUNNAN PROVINCE; VIETNAM: HANOI 7.8 Source: National Geophysical Data Center. Appendix 3 9/56 YEAR SEISMIC CYCLE: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1790 M 7.8 m Year ending November 24 Grid A 34 43 52 05 14 23 32 41 50 03 12 21 30 39 1790 1799 1792 1801 1810 1819 1828 1837 1846 1855 1794 1803 1812 1821 1830 1839 1848 1857 1866 1875 1884 1893 1902 1901 1214 1911 0712 1850 1859 1868 1877 1886 1895 1904 1903 1906 1915 1924 0414 1962 1971 0110 2018 48 01 1933 1942 04 1951 0319 1980 1989 1998 2007 2007 10 19 28 37 1797 0210 18 1817 18 1835 1844 1853 1852 1125 1864 0523 1873 1881 1882 1231 1920 1929 1938 0201 1891 1900 1007 1947 0729 1913 0314 1922 1931 1940 1939 1221 1960 1969 1978 1987 0101 0217 2016 46 1909 1918 15 1918 1118 Grid B 55 17 1806 1815 1824 1833 0906 1833 1124 1862 1871 1880 1889 0906 1927 1936 1935 1949 1958 1967 2005 0328 12 2014 35 44 53 1795 1804 1813 1842 1851 1860 1869 1898 1907 0104 1907 0625 1945 1954 1963 1104 1956 1965 1974 1983 1992 2001 0406 1025 2019 1916 1916 1972 0611 1976 16 1985 1994 0602 2003 2021 Grid C 06 15 24 33 42 51 04 13 22 31 40 49 02 11 1791 1800 1809 1818 1827 11 1793 1802 1811 1820 1829 1838 1847 1856 1865 1874 1883 1822 1831 1840 1849 1858 1867 1876 1885 1894 1903 1912 1921 1930 1939 0227 0523 1878 1887 1896 1905 0122 1914 05 1923 1932 1941 1950 15 1950 1102 1959 1968 1977 19 1986 1995 1925 1981
1934 0214 1990 0716 20 1943 0525 1943 0723 1952 0319 1999 20 2017 29 38 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 19 1961 1970 0104 47 56 1979 09 1988 1997 2006 2015 18 Grid D 27 1798 1807 1816 1825 1834 1843 1852 1861 0216 36 45 54 07 16 25 1796 1805 1814 1823 1832 1841 1870 1879 1888 0513 0612 15 0920 0921 1018 1020 1836 1845 1854 1863 1872 1881 1890 1899 19 1917 19 1935 1944 1953 0929 30 10 1892 1901 1910 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000 2009 0604 1948 1957 1966 1975 1984 1993 2002 2011 2020 0124 1948 0301 1992 1212 2013 2022 Dates expressed as YYYYMMDD. 25 May13 Jun12 Aug15 Sep 20 Sep 21 Oct18 Oct20 Appendix 4 54/56 YEAR SEISMIC GRIDS: SOUTH EAST ASIA Post 1885 M 7.8 m Year ending November 24 Grid A 23 21 19 17 15 1887 1889 Sep06 1943 May25 1943 Jul23 1891 1945 1999 1893 1947 Jul29 2001 1895 1949 2003 1951 Mar19 1953 2007 Sep12 2007 Sep12 2009 32 30 2005 Mar28 Dec 28 Grid B 24 22 20 1892 1894 1948 Jan24
20 NCGT Journal, V. 3, No. 1, March 2015. www.ncgt.org 1904 1903 Dec28 1902 1901 Dec14 1960 2014 2016 18 1958 Apr11 Apr11 16 1896 1950 Aug15 1950 Nov02 1898 1952 2006 Mar19 1900 1954 20 Oct07 1956 Apr06 Oct25 14 1942 Apr 1944 1998 2000 Jun04 1946 2002 Mega quakes (M 8.5) have been highlighted in Red. Grid C 12 1940 1939 Dec21 Jan01 Feb17 10 1938 Feb01 1994 Jan02 1936 1935 Dec28 1992 1948 Mar01 06 1934 Feb14 1990 Jul16