Hotel Industry Update Stephen Hennis, CHA, ISHC 1
Through Aug 2012: Strong Results Despite Headwinds % Change Room Supply* 1.2 bn 0.4% Room Demand* 741 mm 3.3% Occupancy 63% 2.9% A.D.R. $106 4.3% RevPAR $67 7.3% Room Revenue* $78 bn 7.7% YTD August 2012, Total US Results * All Time High 2
Demand Growth Expected To Slow to ~2%. Supply Not An Issue 8 8.0% 4 3.7% 0-0.9% -4 Supply Demand - 4.7% -8-6.9% 1990 2000 2010 *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 8/2012 3
ADR Rebound Trajectory Flattens Out (Too?) Early 6.9% 7.4% 5 4.2% 0-0.2% -0.9% -5 Demand ADR -4.7% -4.6% -10-6.9% -8.7% 1990 2000 2010 *Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 8/2012 4
ADR Growth Is Moderate But Steady 5.0 5.1 3.1 2.8 4.1 3.0 4.3 3.9 4.2 3.6 4.1 4.0 4.4 3.5 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.3 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 * Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 8/12 5
Market Segments 6
August 2012: Transient Demand Breaks Records, But... 20 2007 2011 2012 17.5 Millions 15 12.5 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms; 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 7
Transient ADR Still Lags 2007 Results (But Not By Much) $190 2007 2011 2012 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient ADR $, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 8
12 August 2012: Group Rooms Sold Tracking With 2007, But 2007 2011 2012 10 Millions 8 6 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 9
Group ADRs Still Depressed $170 2008 2011 2012 $160 $150 $140 $130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group ADR $, 2008, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 10
Markets 11
Since 2008: How Much Did ADRs Recover? $33 $34 $17 $19 $2 $3 $4 $4 $5 $6 $8 $8 $9 $10 $11 $13 ATL DAL DC HOU STL ORL DEN SD NAS PHI CHI LA NO BOS SF NYC * Selected 16 Markets, ADR $ Change From Prior Trough, as of 7/12 12
Since 2007: How Much Are Markets Still Off Peak ($)? $10 $8 $0 -$1 -$1 -$2 -$6 -$7 -$8 -$8 -$9 -$11 -$11 -$12 -$13 -$34 NO SF NAS STL BOS LA PHI DEN ATL HOU DAL ORL DC CHI SD NYC * Selected 16 Markets, ADR $ Change From Prior Peak, as of 7/12 13
RevPAR Recovery 14
RevPAR Recovery Tracts 90%+ of Peak RevPAR 15
RevPAR Recovery Tracts Below 90% of Peak RevPAR 16
U.S. RevPAR Recovery $110 Jul 2008 $105 Aug 2012 $100 ADR $95 Mar 2010 $90 $85 $80 Sep 2002 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% Occupancy 17
2012/2013 Forecast 18
Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2012-2013 Outlook 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 0.9% Demand 2.6% 1.2% Occupancy 2.1% 0.3% ADR 4.4% 4.6% RevPAR 6.5% 4.9% 19
Forecast summary 2012 Supply 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% Demand 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% Occupancy 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% ADR 4.4% 4.2% 4.6% RevPAR 6.5% 6.7% 7.2% 2013 Supply 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% Demand 1.2% 2.0% 1.3% Occupancy 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% ADR 4.6% 5.0% 4.9% RevPAR 4.9% 6.2% 5.6% 20
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 3.1% 4.8% 8.0% Upper Upscale 2.2% 4.5% 6.8% Upscale 1.7% 4.4% 6.2% Upper Midscale 2.2% 4.2% 6.5% Midscale 2.9% 2.4% 5.5% Economy 1.7% 3.7% 5.4% Independent 1.7% 4.4% 6.2% Total United States 2.1% 4.4% 6.5% 21
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2013F by Chain Scale 2013 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 1.9% 6.3% 8.3% Upper Upscale -1.0% 4.2% 3.2% Upscale 2.2% 5.5% 7.9% Upper Midscale -0.5% 4.5% 4.0% Midscale 1.3% 2.3% 3.6% Economy 0.8% 3.1% 3.9% Independent -0.6% 4.3% 3.6% Total United States 0.3% 4.6% 4.9% 22
Profitability 23
Total United States Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability* Years 2001 2011 $180 $160 $140 Revenue Net Income % Net Income 100 80 $120 $100 60 Total Rev $80 $60 $40 $20 25.7 23.3 20.1 21.8 23.4 25.4 25.7 24.2 18.7 20.0 21.4 40 20 NOI % of $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 *Representing all U.S. hotels that collectively provide room revenue data to STR. Net Income defined as House Profit less management fees, property taxes, insurance, and an imputed 4.0% reserve for replacement expense 24
Investment Activity 25
Hotel Transaction Volume 2000 - Sep 2012 $35 $30 $25 Billio ons $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012 26
Average Price per Room 2000 - Sep 2012 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012 27
Additional Capital per Room 2000-2011 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 28
Average Room Revenue Multiplier 2000 - Sep 2012 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 29
13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% Average Cap Rate on TTM NOI 2000 - Sep 2012 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 9.3% 4.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012 30
Hotel Investors Gauge Q2 2012 Acquisition Underwriting Parameters Hold Period 5.7 yrs Leveraged IRR 18.5% Cap Rate on TTM NOI 8.5% 31
Average Loan Interest Rate 2000 Sep 2012 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.1% 5.0% 4.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD 2012 32
Hotel Investors Gauge Q2 2012 Financing Terms Loan Term 6.2 years Loan to Value 65% LIBOR Spread 350 bps Debt Service Coverage Ratio 1.3 33
Distressed Asset Trades 2011 vs YTD Sep 2012 2011 YTD 2012 13% 31% 68% Performing Distressed 87% 34
Active Transaction Markets YTD Sep 2012 Market Deals Average Price/Rm Deal Volume RRM New York 11 $584,000 $1,890M 6.97 Washington, DC 7 $300,000 $410M 5.66 CA Central Coast 4 $296,000 $120M 4.94 San Francisco 5 $231,000 $380M 4.76 Chicago 8 $221,000 $480M 5.46 Miami 4 $216,000 $200M 5.37 Boston 5 $174,000 $190M 4.60 Atlanta 7 $130,000 $230M 5.06 Nashville 8 $107,000 $150M 3.85 35
Transactions Stats by Location YTD Sep 2012 Location Deals Average Price/Rm RRM Urban 65 $310,000 5.18 Resort 19 $150,000 4.64 Suburban 84 $115,000 3.56 Airport 16 $87,000 3.05 Small Metro/Town 27 $71,000 3.03 Interstate 20 $29,000 2.28 36
Transactions Stats by Class YTD Sep 2012 Location Deals Average Price/Rm RRM Luxury 15 $471,000 5.01 Upper Upscale 53 $181,000 4.79 Upscale 55 $191,000 4.70 Upper Midscale 50 $140,000 3.57 Midscale 13 $33,000 3.13 Economy 45 $30,000 2.32 37
Average Price per Room by Class YTD Sep 2012 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy 38
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