Aspects and Case Studies of the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources Part II (Case Studies) Manfred Koch Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology, University of Kassel, Germany Email: kochm@uni-kassel.de Haramaya University, Ethiopia, March 16, 2012
Overview 1. WATER RESOURCES IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE 1.1 Climate change: Observations and predictions 1.2 Climate change: Hydrological impacts 1.3 Climate change: Groundwater resources sustainability 2. SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF SURFACE - AND GROUNDWATER RESERVOIRS 2.1 Basics of water budget analysis and implications on sustainable water management 2.2 Scales and variability of climate and hydrological systems 3. MODELING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE- AND GROUNDWATER 3.1 General issues related to hydro-climate modeling 3.2 From global to local scale: downscaling from the climate to the hydrological model. CONCLUSIONS /PART I ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. CASE STUDIES /PART II 4.1 Upper Blue Nile River/ Ethiopia 4.2 Omo River / Ethiopia 4.3 Thailand / Rayong Province 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru 4.5 Fulda catchment /Germany
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.1 Upper Blue Nile River / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Netsanet Zelalem
4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum
4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum
4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethiopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum
4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum Objectives of research (1) Main objectives model cascade dams & reservoirs operation in the Omo river basin for optimal water use. network cascade dams & reservoirs, using the HEC-ResSim model. (2) Specific objectives simulate runoff & inflow to reservoirs in the Omo river basin with theswat model. develop & recommend optimal dam & reservoir operation rule curves for cascade dams & reservoirs. evaluate the effects of various reservoir operating alternatives for either preventing flooding or for avoiding precarious low flows downstream of the reservoirs.
4.2 Omo River Basin / Ethopia / Ph.D. Project Teshome Seyoum Research Methodology Models: 1) SWAT model: Basin daily streamflow model 2) HEC-ResSim model: Reservoir operations model Data: 1) SWAT: Daily values of precipitation, max & min air temperature, solar radiation, RH, & wind speed. DEM, land-use, soil-coverage 2) HEC-ResSim: Observed and SWAT-modeled flow hydrographs, reservoir pool elevations, physical & operational reservoir data Final Delivery * Development of a model that represents the cascade dams & reservoirs, * Delivery of optimal water use operational model for Omo river basin
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 9 10 2 # 8 7 ## 6 # 1 # # # 4 3 # ; 11 # 12 # ## 5
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 8 %U 9 %U Streams %U Raingages # Sub-basin outlet # Watershed outlet Reservoir Subbasins # %U 2 6 %U # 1%U # 7 %U ## %U 5 # # %U 4 %U 3 # %U # 11%U 10 ## %U 12 # Map of Khlong Yai basin and the streamflow network with reservoir locations
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province Conceptual methodology of the study
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province Monthly mean temperature (ºC) 40 30 20 1948 1952 NCEP surface air temperature / Grid 12.5N-13.5N/101E-102.5E monthly mean temperature 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 Year temperature anomaly trend line y = 0.0014x + 25 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 Temperature anomaly (ºC) relative to 1948-2009 Anomalies of monthly mean air temperature at surface relative to 1948-2009 and the trend of monthly mean temperature in Rayong and Chonburi provinces
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 40 30 20 10 streamflow anomaly monthly streamflow trend line y = 0.0024x - 0.7 Monthly streamflow (cms) 0 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Year 15 10 Streamflow anomaly (cms) relative to 1977-2005 Streamflow at outlet of subbasin 2 / obs data of station Z.15 Observed monthly streamflow and trend at outlet of subbasin 2 5 0-5 -10-15 -20
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 30 Streamflow at outlet of sub-basin 1 / SWAT of Khlongyai basin error -10 25 0 Monthly streamflow (cms) 20 15 10 5 streamflow shallow percolation Observed flow Simulated flow calculation error 10 20 30 40 50 60 Error (cms) 0 70 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Observed and simulated monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 1
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province Monthly streamflow (cms) 30 25 20 15 10 5 streamflow at outlet of sub-basin 2 / SWAT of Khlongyai basin error Observed flow Simulated flow calculation error streamflow -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Error (cms) 0 70 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Observed and simulated monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 2
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 30 25 Streamflow at outlet of sub-basin 3 / SWAT of Khlongyai basin error -10 0 10 Monthly (cms) 20 15 10 Observed flow Simulated flow Shallow percolation calculation error streamflow 20 30 40 50 Error (cms) 5 60 0 70 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Observed and simulated monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 3
4.3 Thailand/ Rayong Province 30 Monthly rainfall/streamflow/precolation at outlet of subbasin 2 0 Streamflow (cms) 25 20 15 10 5 Rainfall/Percolation Streamflow Observed flow Rainfall Simulated flow Percolation 500 1000 1500 2000 Rainfall/Precolation (mm/month) 0 2500 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Rainfall, percolation and monthly streamflow at outlet of subbasin 2
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Basins and areas specifically threatened by climate change
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Cumulative mean specific mass balances (a) and cumulative total mass balances (b) of glaciers and ice caps, calculated for large regions (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005).
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru CUENCA RIO SANTA HUARAZ TRUJILLO CANAL CHAVIMOCHIC CHIMBOTE CANAL CHINECAS
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Rainfall predictions Average Dec-Jan-Feb rainfall 2006-2009 Average Dec-Jan-Feb rainfall 2011-2015 Source: SENAMHI
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Temperature predictions Average Mar-Apr-May temperature 2006-2009 Average Mar-Apr-May temperature 2011-2015 Source: SENAMHI
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Water balance predictions Water balance 2005-2009 Water balance 2011-2015 Source: SENAMHI
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru Mann-Kendall Test of monotonic trend: negative
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru / Time series Correlation of temperature with El Nino SST Linear regression/prediction of temperature by El Nino SST
: 4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru Wavelet analysis of El Nino SST and station temperature
4.4 Glacier melting in the Andes/Peru Statistical analysis of climate indices across Northern Peru Wavelet multiresolution analysis of station temperature and El Nino SST
4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany Edertal reservoir System output Location maps Germany >> Hessen >> Fulda basin Germany N 20 km AE = 6930 km²
4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany Fulda catchment with sub-basins and picture of the Eder dam
4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /REMO-predictions/ Temperature Future temperatures Increase between 2 and 4 degrees, depending on SRES Least increase for the optimistic B1 scenario Delay effect for the A1B scenario at the end of the 21 st century
4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /REMO-predictions/ Precipitation Future Precipitation Periods of significantly higher yearly precipitation No long-term trend in yearly precipitation More precipitation in winter /less in summer
4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /REMO-predictions / Runoff Future Runoff Increase of yearly flow rate in all scenarios Most runoff increase is detected in the optimistic B1 scenario Significant increase of winter runoff in all scenarios Oscillation of the mean yearly runoff amount
4.5 Fulda catchment / Germany REMO --> SWAT- water balance predictions for the 21 st century /SWAT- streamflow predictions Moving average of the calculated yearly runoff amount (mean of 23 years)