Curves of Interestingness On Breathing Life Into Data Amanda Cox / amanda.cox@gmail.com Graphics Editor The New York Times
Curves of interestingness Agate? The current assumption?? How much you care about data Know-it-all cave How much you know about something If it was to come to life, this cleaver-sharp science project would need the rounding influence of storytelling. Joshua Wolf Shenk, The Atlantic, June 2009
DEFINING A BUSINESS CYCLE Business cycles have four parts: an expansion, a slowdown, a downturn and a recovery. (Another version has only two parts: an expansion and a recession.) An entire cycle generally lasts 2 to 10 years. METRICS AMANDA COX Turning a Corner? READING THE CIRCULAR CHART The chart at right shows industrial production in two ways: the amount produced compared with a long-term trend and whether it is 1975 1 rising or falling. Together, these two variables define a cycle. Industrial production Index = 100 80 60 40 Trend 1975 2 1975 3 Recession 1975 4 1974 12 2009 3 1975 5 2009 4 2009 5 1970 80 90 00 09 2009 2 2009 1 2008 12 1975 6 2008 11 1973 1973 11 1973 10 9 1973 12 1973 8 1973 7 1973 6 1974 1 1973 5 1973 4 1974 2 1973 3 1974 3 1974 4 1973 2 1974 5 1973 1 1974 6 1979 21979 11978 12 1979 3 1978 11 1979 4 1978 10 1979 5 1972 12 1974 7 1978 9 1979 6 1979 7 2000 620002000 5 4 2000 7 1978 8 1979 8 2000 3 1979 19799 10 2000 8 1979 11 2008 2008 22007 1 12 2000 2 1978 7 2000 9 2007 11 1972 11 1979 12 1974 8 2008 3 2007 10 2000 1 2000 10 2007 9 1978 6 1980 1 2008 4 2007 8 1999 12 1988 1988 1988 12 11 10 91988 8 7 1969 7 1972 10 1969 1988 6 2007 1989 1 8 5 1988 1999 7 2000 11 4 1988 11 2008 5 2007 6 1978 3 5 1989 2 1988 2 1980 2 1969 9 2007 1999 5 10 1984 7 1988 1984 1 1989 3 6 2000 12 2007 41984 8 1987 12 1984 5 1974 9 2008 6 1984 2007 1999 93 1978 9 1989 4 1972 9 1969 4 10 1984 10 1984 4 2007 1987 11 1999 2 1984 11 2007 1 8 2001 1 1989 5 2006 1998 2 19981997 1 12 1984 3 1980 3 1984 12 2006 1999 12 1999 7 2006110 2006 1998 19786 92006 3 1981 8 2006 3771981 6 6 1997 111987 10 1981 5 1972 8 1969 11985 1 1998 4 1989 6 1981 1990 8 1990 6 45 1998 5 1981 4 1985 2 1990 1990 7 3 1997 10 1977 9 1977 8 1984 2 19871981 9 1977 3 7 1989 7 1998 1998 1998 1998 78 61998 1998 1999 1999 9 10 11121 23 4 5 2006 5 2008 7 2006 4 2006 3 2001 2 1990 2 1978 2 1977 2006 1985 3 10 2 1981 1990 9 81 1997 9 1981972 1977 2 7 1977 11 6 1989 8 1989 1985 4 1978 121990 1977 1 2006 1 1989 12 1989 9 101989 11 1987 81981 1 1969 12 2005 12 19771972 5 1984 1 6 1974 10 1980 4 1985 5 1990 9 1997 8 2001 3 2008 8 1981 Oct. 10 74 2005 11 1980 12 1985 6 1987 7 1977 4 1972 5 2005 10 2005 62005 2005 51997 7 2005 4 3 1985 7 2005 2005 9 2005 8 7 1995 1994 1 12 1983 12 1990 10 1995 2 1994 11 2005 2 2001 41970 1 1985 8 1987 6 1980 11 1997 6 1972 4 1985 9 1995 3 1994 10 2005 1 1981 11 1985 1985 10 11 1997 19945 1977 3 1980 5 1985 12 1995 4 9 1987 5 1997 1994 4 2004 8 12 1986 1 1972 3 1983 11 1990 11 1995 5 1994 7 2008 9 2001 197052 1980 10 1997 3 1995 1987 4 1986 6 2004 1994 11 6 2 1997 2 1977 2 1995 7 1994 5 1981 12 1995 8 1997 1987 3 1986 3 1996 12 2004 1 1994 10 4 1972 2 1980 6 1995 9 1996 1970 3 1980 1990 9 1994 12 1987 3 1995 10 1996 11 2001 6 2 1983 10 1993 1992 1992 112 1986 4 1993 2 1992 1994 11 1995 11 1977 1 1987 1992 102 1993 3 1 1980 7 1980 8 1982 1 1986 5 1986 12 1970 4 1976 12 1972 1 1991 1 1992 1992 1992 1992 9 1995 12 1994 1 5 6 7 8 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1 2 1993 3 4 5 1996 2004 10 6 78 9 9 2004 8 1993 2004 12 7 2004 1993 5 1993 11 2004 2004 6 2008 10 5 2001 7 2004 1986 6 1993 1993 6 2004 4 3 2 198610 11 1983 9 1986 7 1982 2 1986 81986 9 1986 1993 1993 10 78 9 1992 4 1991 8 2004 1991 9 1 2003 1012 1991 7 3 19912002 11 10 2002 2002 9 2002 8 1970 5 1991 12 1991 2 19922002 2002 1976 11 1991 6 12 2003 11 11 7 2003 1 2001 8 2003 2 2003 10 2002 6 1991 3 1991 5 2003 32003 9 2002 5 1971 12 1991 4 2003 4 1976 10 1982 31970 20016 5 9 2003 2003 2003 6 7 8 Jan. 91 Oct. 08 2002 4 1983 8 1976 9 2002 3 2001 10 1976 8 1970 7 1971 11 1982 4 2002 2 1976 7 2001 11 1976 6 Dec. 74 2001 12 2002 1 1976 5 1983 7 1970 8 1976 4 1971 10 1982 5 1976 3 1970 9 1971 9 1983 6 1976 2 1982 6 Jan. 02 1971 8 1970 10 Dec. 08 1970 11 1970 12 1971 1 1971 2 1971 3 1971 4 1971 1971 1971 5 6 7 1976 1 1982 7 1983 5 1975 12 1982 8 1983 4 Nov. 70 1975 11 1982 9 1983 3 Downturn 1982 10 1975 10 1983 2 1982 11 1983 1 1982 12 1975 9 HE economy lost 467,000 jobs in Organization for Economic Cooperation June, a deeply discouraging number Slowdown Expansion Tsuggested the recession may be ending. on data from manufacturers, miners But economic turning points are and utility companies. (In the United notoriously hard to identify, especially States, industry s share of the economy when a parade of data can seem to has fallen to about 20 percent, but it still contradict itself. After the 2001 recession, moves roughly in step with the economy CHANGE IN LAST 20 months passed before the National as a whole.) SIX MONTHS Bureau of Economic Research officially The chart, explained below, currently Falling suggests that the economy is poised to determined its endpoint. To get a feeling for how cycles turn around, but that the climb out will be are evolving, economists at the a long one. Nov. 83 1974 11 Slowdown Downturn What business cycles look like Expansion Recovery March 75 April 09 May 09 1975 7 1975 8 Nov. 82 July 75 AMOUNT PRODUCED Above trend AMOUNT PRODUCED Below trend Oct. 73 START July 69 Sept. 75 Oct. 71 Recovery CHANGE IN LAST SIX MONTHS Rising 1970 80 90 00 09 Taming the swings A period of blips and one giant fall Signals that a recession is ending What leading indicators say In the 1970s, cycles were volatile, marked by wild swings. But by the mid-1980s, a period known as the Great Moderation had taken hold. With computers helping businesses manage their inventories, policy makers paying more attention to inflation and perhaps just some good luck, cycles were mild and recessions were shallow. Growth was weak earlier in this decade, but the economy appeared to be much more resilient. There were soft patches when the economy looked as if it were headed into a downturn, but it would then recover. In the last year, however, industrial production has fallen 13 percent, its deepest downturn since the end of World War II. This chart shows industrial production during the last seven recessions, and in the following six months. In each case, the recession ended around the time industrial production turned toward recovery. Because the pace of the current slowdown has leveled off, the economy appears to be close to that turning point. While industrial production is thought to move with the economy, other indicators like consumer confidence, the length of the manufacturing workweek and interest rate spreads generally turn before the economy does. These indicators provide a preview of where the economy might be in a few months. Volatile cycle 1971 to 1975 Most recently May 2004 to 2009 Dec. 07 Mini recessions Recession 6 months after end SLUG SECTION SIZE ORIGIN DATE May 04 Mild cycle 1987 to 1991 May 09 May 09 Feb. O.E.C.D. leading indicators May* * New York Times estimate based on available data Bac Co Dan Tim Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; Federal Reserve; National Bureau of Economic Research; Conference Board, via Haver Analytics THE NEW YORK TIMES
Placing Justices on an Ideological Line Professors at Washington University in St. Louis and Harvard have used the voting behavior of Supreme Court justices to understand the differences among them and how they change over time. Their research shows Justice David H. Souter, who was appointed by President George Bush in 1990, moving toward the liberal side of the court around 1992, when he disappointed conservatives in a 5-to-4 decision that reaffirmed the constitutional right to abortion. Thomas Scalia MORE CONSERVATIVE Burger Rehnquist Roberts Alito Powell White Kennedy O Connor ESTIMATED IDEOLOGY Souter Ginsburg Breyer Blackmun MORE LIBERAL Stevens Brennan Marshall Term beginning in Oct. 1985 90 95 2000 Source: Andrew D. Martin, Washington University in St. Louis and Kevin M. Quinn, Harvard (http://mqscores.wustl.edu) Larger-Than-Expected Deficit Forecasts 05 07 THE NEW YORK TIMES Last February, President George W. Bush s budget predicted a surplus by 2012. PAST ESTIMATES SURPLUS OR DEFICIT IN TODAY S DOLLARS SURPLUS DEFICIT 500 billion President Ronald Reagan s estimates criticized as too rosy at the time remained largely unchanged for much of his tenure. President Bill Clinton s early budgets did not predict the surpluses from 1998 to 2001, when rising incomes and a booming stock market increased tax revenues. 1,000 1,500 HISTORICAL PROJECTIONS Mr. Obama aims to shrink the annual deficit to $533 billion by the end of his term. But 80 percent of past four-year projections have been too optimistic, off by $270 billion, on average. 78 Carter 82 Reagan 86 Source: Office of Management and Budget 90 Bush 94 Clinton 98 2009 est. 02 Bush 06 Obama s 2010 proposal 10 Obama THE NEW YORK TIMES
Sources for graphics, 2000 2009 Census Bureau 852 B.L.S. 844 World Bank 118 O.E.C.D. 52