January 31, Seven months later, Hoerner has the early makings of a scouting and talent-evaluation win for the Cubs.

Transcription

1 January 31, 2019 The Athletic, Is Nico Hoerner the next big bat to come through the Cubs system? Cubs.com, Around the Horn: Cubs confident in rotation NBC Sports Chicago, A new perspective: How fatherhood is helping Albert Almora Jr. on the field -- The Athletic Is Nico Hoerner the next big bat to come through the Cubs system? By Sahadev Sharma When the Cubs selected Stanford shortstop Nico Hoerner with the 24th pick in the first round of the amateur draft last June, the general consensus was they had reached for an infielder with minimal power who might not stick at a premium position. It looks like a reach, one rival area scout texted me. But I trust them on college position players, so let s see. That scout said his amateur department had Hoerner near the back end of the top 100 draft-eligible prospects that summer. Another high-ranking official outside the Cubs organization expressed a similar sentiment, suggesting they weren t high on Hoerner, but adding that they were intrigued given the Cubs amateur evaluation skills when it comes to position players. Seven months later, Hoerner has the early makings of a scouting and talent-evaluation win for the Cubs. Hoerner first piqued the Cubs interest back in the summer of He was among the league leaders during a strong Cape Cod season, but there were still questions about his power. Hoerner was playing for the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox and five of Hoerner s six home runs that summer came at home in one of the most offensive-friendly ballparks in the Cape. The Cubs scouts left that summer with Hoerner on their radar, but were unsure whether he was a first-round talent. It wouldn t be long before he started answering those questions for the Cubs. Early in the spring, director of amateur scouting Matt Dorey saw Hoerner and immediately told national cross-checker Sam Hughes to keep an eye on him. When Hughes headed to Austin, Texas to see a matchup between Stanford and Texas that would feature numerous draft prospects, Dorey told Hughes that Hoerner was growing on him. Hughes was looking forward to seeing Hoerner in a different environment.

2 With Pac-12 baseball, a lot of the places you go the attendance is light, Hughes said. It s not a tremendous college atmosphere like it is at University of Texas or some of the schools in the SEC. I was super pumped watching Nico on Friday, just his preparation. He was different. It was different with him. It wasn t a whole bunch of college, rah-rah stuff. You could see how determined and focused he was in his preparation. He knew he was on a big stage playing in front of a ton of people and he was locked in the entire weekend. Over the three games Hughes watched, Hoerner collected seven hits including a double and a homer and one walk over 15 plate appearances. And according to Hughes notes from the weekend, Hoerner reached base eight times, but he dominated 12 of those plate appearances. The fascination in the Cubs amateur department only grew from there. They d been watching so many players in the Cape Cod League that they weren t sure exactly what Hoerner was. As they focused in on him during the spring, they saw more and more of what they liked. They had more opportunities to get multi-day looks at him and could see that he d put the hard work in during the fall and winter to put himself in great physical shape to get ready for the spring season. It didn t matter to them that the game power wasn t showing up consistently. The scouts saw something. The ball came off his bat in a way that made you say, This guy has power, Hughes said. I got one of his two home runs last year, but he hit the ball extremely hard. As June approached and the scouts were holed away preparing for the draft, they came together with the research and development department and finally had data to back up what their eyes were telling them. Turns out, we get in the draft room and our R&D department was hyping his exit velocities and stuff, Hughes said. It ended up being the perfect marriage. Our scouting looks suggested he hadn t tapped into his power yet, but we thought there were things to be done in the player development department because he s a strong dude who centers the ball frequently. We felt he d tap into power sooner than later. Getting Nico up top, we were all elated in the draft room. The more time we spent talking about it, the more clear it became that if he fell to us, we d be thrilled to get him. Not long after the Cubs surprised some and snagged Hoerner with their pick late in the first round, general manager Jed Hoyer spoke with the media about what went into their decision. His exit velocity has been really good, Hoyer said last June. He hits the ball low at this point and he s been hitting a lot of line drives. His launch angle isn t very high. We like the fact that he s a strong kid. He s twitchy. He s got bat speed. We talk about it all the time guys growing into power. That s not just kids out of high school. That s also kids in college. And we feel like he is a guy that will probably grow into some power. It s the type of positive talk one hears frequently from a front-office executive after a draft. But now the Cubs have some actual results to point to to back up not only their decision to take Hoerner, but also the plaudits they were throwing his way at the time. It takes more than just nice exit velocity for a player to reach his potential, though. The Cubs had to do their homework on his makeup. Dorey consulted with mental skills coordinator John Baker, who played for Stanford head coach David Esquer at Berkeley and the coach raved to Baker about Hoerner s work ethic.

3 From the very top of the amateur department with Jason McLeod and Dorey to cross-checkers like Hughes and Shane Farrell all the way down to area scout Gabe Zappin, the Cubs did their usual detective work on Hoerner. Those results combined with what they learned from research and development reinforced their decision. We used a lot of different sources of information to kind of triangulate to make sure we were not just falling in love with the Stanford background, Dorey said soon after Hoerner was drafted. We actually got to know who he was off the field. (But) this guy is a great baseball player with tools. It s just not wrapped in like the prototypical first-round frame. The next step was working to develop Hoerner to try to maximize his skillset. The Cubs knew they could get more out of Hoerner, but they didn t immediately start trying to change him. Instead, Hoerner said, they trusted him to better himself. I give the Cubs a lot of credit for really not giving me too much information, Hoerner said. This summer they just let me play and the fall as well. I wasn t really pushed. It wasn t a lot of input. That freedom let me figure things out naturally. When you start to figure things out on your own, that s when you really understand it. Hoerner laughs when he hears all the talk about launch angle. Never in my life have I wanted to hit ground balls, he said. I don t see it as a revolution. You want to hit home runs from the day you re born. But it s about understanding my body. What Hoerner has learned is that during college he spent a lot of time trying to adjust his swing rather than doing what naturally came to him. He ended up closing his stance a little bit in the fall in Arizona and he said the change has let his body move more freely. Hoerner s development had the potential to be stunted a bit when his season ended prematurely in July with a left elbow injury. It required a PRP injection and Hoerner went home for three weeks and did very little work. He then went out to Arizona, where he immediately began lower-body workouts. When he was fully healthy, he was chosen to play in the Arizona Fall League. I went into it with the mindset of development, Hoerner said. It s a league I was really fortunate to be in in my first year of pro ball. It was an opportunity to perform at the highest level of baseball I ve ever played and learn from things I already do well and also the things I wasn t up to par yet. It gave me a lot of clarity throughout the rest of the offseason on what I need to work on. Hoerner opened eyes around baseball with his performance with the Mesa Solar Sox. He slashed.337/.362/.506 in 94 plate appearances with four doubles, four triples and a home run. That helped propel him onto some top-100 prospect lists. He made very slight tweaks in his mechanics to show some more in-game power. Scouts saw a consistent and accurate defender at shortstop who made up for a slightly underwhelming arm with a really quick exchange and release. The more they watched him play, the more the buzz became that the Cubs had found a gem later in the first round. He s put on a few pounds of good weight and Hoerner is learning how to use his hands better in his swing, getting slightly more separation from his body. That allows him to get more leverage and impact the ball more frequently in the air. At instructs, minor league hitting coordinator Chris Valaika worked with Hoerner to focus a little more on contact point.

4 The idea isn t about getting the ball in the air, but rather getting Hoerner comfortable pulling the ball. When he does pull the ball and puts it in the air, it s about making sure he gets that proper spin and true carry, rather than pulling the ball with topspin. In the video above, you can see Hoerner stop his follow-through short, but that s part of the process. That kind of emphasizes contact point and being powerful behind the ball, Hoerner said. In that, my finish is especially high. I try to go through the ball, to the middle of the field. At game speed, I don t know where my finish is. It s an exaggerated feeling, more about being behind the ball, through the ball and the middle of the field rather than focusing on the finish. Hoerner said he s constantly talking to Valaika and appreciates how their interactions are more like conversations rather than a coach pushing ideas on him. It feels like I m learning it, Hoerner said. I m taking it in in a way that I feel like I m adding to my own process rather than someone just forcing stuff on me. Hoerner is also using new data available to him that wasn t accessible back in his college days, while not letting it overwhelm him. Hoerner isn t quite as advanced as previous college draft picks the Cubs have made, but he s moving quicker than many expected. Despite making just 17 plate appearances at Low-A South Bend before having his season cut short, there s a good chance he ll start the season in High-A Myrtle Beach, where fellow shortstop and highly thought of prospect Aramis Ademan is expected to be as well. But the Cubs won t fret about hindering either player s development; it s just the start of the process of them learning some defensive versatility. Hoerner understands there s a long line of quality position players Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ who quickly shot through the Cubs system after being drafted, but he s in no rush to get to the big leagues. I have a lot of goals, Hoerner said. But it s not based on what level I m at. That s out of my control. I have a lot of trust in the Cubs, especially how they handle hitters that they ve drafted out of college. They ve got a pretty track record with that. -- Cubs.com Around the Horn: Cubs confident in rotation By Jordan Bastian In the weeks leading up to the start of Spring Training, MLB.com will go Around the Horn, examining different facets of the Cubs' roster. This week: starting rotation. There are plenty of teams that will be heading into Spring Training with pitchers competing for rotation jobs. In some camps, clubs will continue baseball's experimentation with the opener. The Cubs do not currently fit into either category. Barring any injury setbacks, Chicago does not have any openings in its starting rotation. The only question to sort out will be which arm slots into which spot. And in this era of specialization and decreasing pitch counts for starters, the Cubs have five pitchers capable of hauling a lot of innings. The rotation is deep, experienced and one of the reasons the Cubs are confident in their ability to reclaim the National League Central crown.

5 "It's great," Cubs lefty Cole Hamels said. "I think we all have a good idea of how to get ready for a game and what's expected out of us and we know how to get good results. And if we have a bad game, we've got guys that will pick up the pieces the next day. And that's comforting." Let's take a walk through the Cubs' starting pitching situation. Left-handers: Hamels, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana The Cubs picked up Hamels' $20 million option at the start of this offseason after he spun a 2.36 ERA in 12 starts following his trade from the Rangers. Hamels -- who, like Lester, is 35 years old -- said he sorted out some mechanical issues that plagued him in Texas. A full season of Hamels could help eliminate some of the back-end turnover experienced by the starting staff in Lester has been a source of stability throughout his career, logging at least 31 starts in 11 straight campaigns. That includes at least 32 starts each of the past four years for the Cubs, who have seen their significant investment in the lefty back in December 2014 (six years, $155 million) pay off. Last year, Lester went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 181 2/3 innings. Every pitch that Quintana throws comes with an extra layer of scrutiny from Cubs fans, given that the club sent highly touted prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease to the White Sox for the lefty in July Last season, Quintana went with a 4.03 ERA over 174 1/3 innings. That is strong production out of the back end of a rotation, but the Cubs have yet to see the pitcher who averaged 4 WAR while suiting up for the South Siders from Right-handers: Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks Darvish has ramped up his throwing program, and the pitcher said during Cubs Convention that he expects to have no limitations this spring with Opening Day as a realistic goal. That would be fantastic news for the Cubs, who received only eight starts last year from Darvish due to right triceps and elbow issues. A healthy Darvish could go a long way in helping shore up the Cubs' strikeout-minus-walk rate (11.1 percent in 2018, 17th in MLB). For his career, the righty has a mark of 20.5 percent. Hendricks won't break the radar gun (his sinker averaged 86.6 mph last year, per Statcast ), but his elite control and plus curveball have helped him emerge as a reliable rotation arm. The righty led the Majors in ERA (2.13) in a breakout showing in 2016 and went with a 3.44 ERA in 199 innings last season, striking out 161 and walking 44. Major League depth: Tyler Chatwood, Mike Montgomery The potential of a healthy Darvish, combined with the Cubs' decision to pick up Hamels' option, has pushed Montgomery and Chatwood out of the MLB rotation. They will be the top two depth options, with Montgomery holding the next-man-up edge. Chatwood's well-documented walk woes (he had a 19.6 percent walk rate with 8.25 per nine innings) make him sort of a wild card. There is plenty of potential, as long as he cuts down the command problems. His presence in the rotation last year helps explain the staff's 27th-ranked walk rate (3.5 per nine innings). Prospects to watch: Adbert Alzolay, Thomas Hatch, Duncan Robinson, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson Although there are other pitchers on the 40-man roster (Alec Mills, Jen-Ho Tseng and Duane Underwood Jr. among them), this is a group to closely monitor this Minor League season. In reality, the best path to the big leagues in 2019 for a Cubs pitching prospect is in the bullpen. That said, if there were multiple setbacks, the organization believes it has some capable young arms emerging as MLB rotation depth options.

6 Statcast says... The Cubs' starting staff as a group averaged 90.3 mph on fastballs last season. That ranked 29th in the Majors and last in the NL. While pitch velocity is not everything -- just ask Hendricks -- it goes a long way in explaining why Chicago's strikeout rate (20.4 percent) ranked 17th in MLB last year. If the Cubs are not going to miss bats, they need to continue to play plus defense, and the bullpen will need to improve its own whiff rate. -- NBC Sports Chicago A new perspective: How fatherhood is helping Albert Almora Jr. on the field By Tony Andracki It's easy to forget how young Albert Almora Jr. is will mark Almora's eighth year with the Cubs, yet the only player younger on the projected Opening Day roster is Ian Happ. The first draft selection of Theo Epstein's front office (all the way back in 2012) has not had the same linear path as Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber or even Happ. Almora's journey has been filled with more starts and stops than his peers. So there are plenty of lessons Almora is still in the process of digesting about baseball, life and the intersection between the two. Almora and his wife, Krystal, have two kids before his 25th birthday (they just welcomed their second son recently) and while that can be obviously stressful, it's also given the Cubs outfielder a new perspective on the baseball field. "Fatherhood lets me understand failure," Almora said. "When I go 0-for-4 and I go home, you're upset or whatever the case may be and you come home and my 2-year-old son looks at me and he just wants to play and have fun. He doesn't care. "That's the good thing about it. It humbles me. It's bigger than a game it's family." Understanding and being OK with failure might be the toughest lesson for young baseball players to learn. Take Almora for example. Throughout his entire life, he played above his age group as a kid and was always one of the best players on the field throughout his time on Team USA, in high school and then in the minor leagues. This is a guy who hit.321 and.329 in his first two professional seasons in Rookie and A-ball. Baseball is a game driven by failure, but Almora didn't get his first true taste of that until he was a 20- year-old in Double-A in 2014, when he was 4.5 years younger than the average player at that level. This winter, Almora isn't just worried about his physical fitness or honing his skillset on the field. One of his main areas of focus this offseason is the mental aspect of the game.

7 "You don't want to try to overthink it or try to do too much," he said. "You just try to go out there and be yourself." He's working out twice a day this winter running, hitting, stretching, anything he can do to unlock his body's full potential. But he's also ensuring there's room to further develop that perspective about failure. "I found a good balance of what I gotta do and being a father and enjoying my kids, as well," Almora said. "This is the best shape I've been in in my life. I know I've said that every year, but I'm serious about it this year." Last fall's abrupt exit has been the only motivation Almora needs this winter as he attempts to take his overall game to the next level. "We ended too early [last year]," he said. "We still had a lot left in our tank. When something's taken from you, I think we deserved to keep going. We had a good team. "The hunger and that work ethic lights an even bigger fire. It's a good time to be us and we're ready to go." Almora was one of the central figures in the tale of the Cubs' two offenses last season. In the first half, he hit.319 with a.795 OPS, 24 extra-base hits and 28 RBI. After the All-Star Break, he lost 87 points off his batting average (down to.232) and 249 points off his OPS (down to.546) while knocking just 6 extrabase hits and 13 RBI. His offense is the main reason his name is not written on Joe Maddon's scorecard every single day. The story has been the same for the last two years Almora tears up lefties but struggles against righties, he hits the ball on the ground too much and he doesn't work the count enough. Last season, only 4 players around baseball saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than Almora (3.36). That stat in itself isn't always bad, but an aggressive approach doesn't have much value if a player isn't doing damage on the pitches they make contact with. For example, Javy Baez (3.48) finished only a few spots lower than Almora on the list of fewest pitches per plate appearance, but the NL MVP runner-up also clubbed 53 more extra-base hits than Almora in To put that gap into perspective, Anthony Rizzo totaled 55 extra-base hits last season, so basically the difference between Baez's power and Almora's power was a full Anthony Rizzo. Almora's game is more contact than power, but he actually ranked 82nd in baseball (min. 200 plate appearances) in strikeout percentage last year and saw his plate discipline take steps back compared to 2017 walking less and striking out more. Much of that can be tied to the tough second half and maybe fine-tuning his new perspective will help him climb out of slumps faster. The more he hits, the tougher it'll be for the Cubs to take Almora out of the starting lineup thanks to his defense in center field. Almora would love to play every single day and many Cubs fans would love that, too. But he also knows the priority isn't each individual guy's playing time.

8 "It's not about me," he said. "It's about the team. I'm just trying to do what I can when my name is called and hopefully they have that confidence in me to go out there and play. I'm just trying to stay healthy and be there for my guys whenever they need me." --