2014 Tulane National Baseball Arbitration Competition Jeff Samardzija v. Chicago Cubs (MLB)

Transcription

1 2014 Tulane National Baseball Arbitration Competition Jeff Samardzija v. Chicago Cubs (MLB) Submission on behalf of Jeff Samardzija Team 15

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision.. 1 II. Career Contributions and Achievements.1 a. Value to the Chicago Cubs..2 b. Ability to Strike Out Opposing Hitters 3 c. Lack of Injury Concern 3 III. IV. Platform Season...4 Comparable Players.5 a. Rick Porcello 5 b. Clayton Richard...6 c. John Lannan.8 d. Justin Masterson/Mike Pelfrey 9 e. Comparable Player Summary 10 V. Conclusion.10

3 I. INTRODUCTION AND REQUEST FOR HEARING DECISION In 2012, Jeff Samardzija ( Mr. Samardzija or Samardzija ) became a fulltime starter and mainstay for Major League Baseball s ( MLB ) Chicago Cubs ( Cubs or the Club ), completing a successful transition from his role as a dominant reliever to a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Mr. Samardzija has years of major league service ( MLS ) and, as such, is arbitration-eligible for the second time. The final player offer in this arbitration matter is $5.10 million. The final team offer is for $4.70 million. Thus, the essential figure in this arbitration the midpoint is $4.90 million. This brief analyzes Mr. Samardzija s accomplishments and illustrates why he deserves a 2014 salary arbitration award of $5.10 million, which would represent a salary increase of $2.46 million over the $2.64 million he earned from the Cubs in This brief is governed by and adheres to Article VI, Part E(10)(a)-(b) of MLB s Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ). According to the CBA, the following areas of Mr. Samardzija s MLB service time may be considered as part of this arbitration: (1) the quality of his contribution to his club during the past season; (2) the length and consistency of his career contribution; (3) the record of his past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any physical or mental defects on his part; and (6) the recent performance record of the club. 2 II. CAREER CONTRIBUTIONS AND ACHIEVEMENTS Mr. Samardzija enjoyed a successful season as a reliever in 2011 and was moved into the Cubs starting rotation in In fact, the Cubs felt so confident, based on Mr. Samardzija s 1 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, Baseball-Reference.com, Basic Agreement, Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement,

4 2012 performance, that they named him their 2013 Opening Day starter. 3 Mr. Samardzija s 2013 platform season proved he is one of the best power pitchers in the National League. a. Value to the Chicago Cubs Mr. Samardzija arrived in the Major Leagues in 2008 and had a successful rookie campaign. In 2011, he broke out and established himself as a highly valuable member of the Cubs bullpen, posting an outstanding ERA and a high strikeout total. The Cubs had bigger plans for Mr. Samardzija, and in 2012, they transitioned him to the starting rotation. During the past two seasons, Mr. Samardzija solidified his status as a front-end starting pitcher for the Cubs. 4 Jeff Samardzija vs. Qualified Chicago Cubs Relievers GP IP ERA SO K/9 WHIP (T-2 nd ) 88.0 (1 st ) 2.97 (3 rd ) 87 (2 nd ) 8.90 (4 th ) (3 rd ) Jeff Samardzija vs. Qualified Chicago Cubs Starting Pitchers* GS IP W ERA SO K/9 WHIP (1 st ) (1 st ) 9 (T-1 st ) 3.81 (2 nd ) 180 (1 st ) 9.27 (1 st ) (2 nd ) (1 st ) (1 st ) 8 (T-2 nd ) 4.34 (2 nd ) 214 (1 st ) 9.01 (1 st ) (2 nd ) 5 * Minimum of 20 games started required In 2012, Mr. Samardzija was the only pitcher on the Chicago Cubs staff who qualified for the ERA title, as no other pitcher met the award-eligible criteria by throwing more than 162 innings. 6 This past season, Mr. Samardzija was one of only three starting pitchers for the Cubs who started at least 20 games. 7 3 Samardzija Tabbed as Cubs Opening Day Starter, MLB.com, 4 Samardzija vs. Cubs Relievers, Fangraphs.com, on1=2011&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 5 Samardzija vs. Cubs Starters, Fangraphs.com, on1=2012&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 6 Id. 7 Id. 2

5 b. Ability to Strike Out Opposing Hitters While the Cubs initially used Mr. Samardzija as a reliever and now use him as a starting pitcher, he has shown dominant strikeout ( SO ) totals in either position an attribute highly coveted by Major League teams. Since becoming a full-time starter on the Cubs pitching staff to begin the 2012 season, Mr. Samardzija s ability to strike out opposing hitters ranked highly among pitchers in the National League and in Major League Baseball overall. In fact, during the 2012 and 2013 seasons, only Yu Darvish, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, and Chris Sale had higher strikeouts per 9 inning ratios ( K/9 ) than Mr. Samardzija Starting Pitcher Strikeouts & Rank Among SPs Samardzija SO NL Rank MLB Rank T-14 th T-24 th th 9 th 9 Starting Pitcher Strikeouts Per 9 Innings & Rank Among SPs Samardzija K/9 NL Rank MLB Rank nd 4 th th 12 th c. Lack of Injury Concern Mr. Samardzija has consistently shown the ability to stay healthy and contribute to the Cubs on-field success. He has never been on the disabled list and has no reported arm trouble a frequent concern for MLB clubs when considering players future contracts. As a precaution, the Cubs organization shut down Mr. Samardzija after 28 starts during the 2012 season, ensuring 8 Starting Pitcher Strikeouts Per 9 Innings , Fangraphs.com, on1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d 9 MLB Player Pitching Stats, ESPN.com, 10 MLB Player Pitching Stats, ESPN.com, Strikeouts per Nine Innings = (Number of Strikeouts/Innings Pitched)*9 3

6 that he did not overwork his valuable right arm. 11 This was consistent with a plan outlined before the season to limit Mr. Samardzija s workload during his first year as a big-league starter. 12 Mr. Samardzija followed up 2012 with 33 starts in 2013, highlighted by a top 5 ranking in the National League in innings pitched. 13 III. PLATFORM YEAR PERFORMANCE In 2013, Mr. Samardzija continued to build off his success as a full-time starter in 2012, as he was named the Cubs Opening Day starting pitcher and was able to pitch the entire season at the top of the Club s starting rotation. Samardzija vs. Starting Pitchers in NL Rank MLB Rank IP th 11 th K th 9 th K/ th 12 th 14 Mr. Samardzija s K/9 ratio of 9.01 ranked him behind only AJ Burnett, Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, and Stephen Strasburg in the National League in Mr. Samardzija s strikeout ability can be largely attributed to his dominant fastball, which tied for fourth in all of Major League Baseball with an average velocity of 94.6 miles per hour. 16 Platform Year W L GS IP ERA WHIP QS QS% SO SO/9 BAA 17 Samardzija Jeff Samardzija to Make 1 More Start, ESPNChicago.com, 12 Id. 13 MLB Player Pitching Stats, ESPN.com, 14 Id.; MLB Player Pitching Stats, ESPN.com, MLB Player Pitching Stats, ESPN.com, 15 Id. at 16 Starting Pitcher Average Velocity, Fangraphs.com, son1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 17 Batting Average Against = (Hits allowed/batters Faced BB HBP Sacrifice Hits Sacrifice Flies Catcher s Interference) 4

7 During Mr. Samardzija s platform season, he and Jose Fernandez shared MLB s Pitcher of the Week Award for the week of August 19 th -25 th. 19 Mr. Samardzija posted stellar pitching performances during this period, including wins against the San Diego Padres and the Washington Nationals, the latter victory stalling the Nationals late-season push toward the playoffs. Pitcher of the Week W L GS IP ERA WHIP QS SO SO/9 BAA Samardzija IV. COMPARABLE PLAYERS In comparing Mr. Samardzija to previous second-time arbitration eligible players, platform season performance should be the primary determinant in supporting his salary increase. The respective career contributions of Mr. Samardzija and his comparable peers were deliberated during their first arbitrations, and, as a result, were reflected in their initial arbitration awards. a. Rick Porcello ($5.10 million) Rick Porcello, a starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, was a second time arbitrationeligible player following the 2012 season. Porcello avoided arbitration and received a raise of $2.00 million from his 2012 salary, resulting in a total salary award of $5.10 million. Mr. Samardzija s statistical performance in his platform year easily surpasses Porcello s. Only a full-time starter for two years, Mr. Samardzija outpaces Porcello in almost every statistical category, including but not limited to ERA, WHIP, 20 strikeouts, and quality starts in their respective platform seasons. 18 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, Baseball-Reference.com, Player of the Week Award, Baseball Almanac, 20 WHIP = (BB + H)/IP; WHIP analyzes the ability of a pitcher to keep runners off of the basepaths 5

8 Platform Year GS W IP ERA WHIP QS QS% SO SO/9 BAA Samardzija ( 13) Porcello ( 12) In addition, Mr. Samardzija proved his durability this past season, posting the 11 th most innings pitched in all of Major League Baseball. 21 Mr. Samardzija s BAA was 65 points lower than Porcello s, and he recorded twice as many strikeouts as Porcello in their platform seasons as Mr. Samardzija established himself as one of MLB s best power pitchers. Another key statistic for comparing pitchers is quality starts. 22 Quality starts are highly indicative of a starting pitcher s ability to put his team in a position to win games. Mr. Samardzija s quality start percentage of 58% was 17% higher than Porcello s quality start percentage of 41%. Mr. Samardzija, the Cubs Opening Day starter, was heavily relied upon to produce these results as the anchor in the Cubs rotation. By contrast, the Tigers expected less out of Porcello as the 3 rd or 4 th starter behind Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Doug Fister yet the Tigers still paid Porcello above the midpoint at the center of Mr. Samardzija s arbitration. 23 As the statistics above clearly indicate, Mr. Samardzija was either equivalent to or surpassed Porcello in nearly every statistical category. Consequently, Mr. Samardzija deserves a salary greater than or equal to Porcello s $5.10 million, and certainly above the $4.90 million midpoint. b. Clayton Richard ($5.24 million) Clayton Richard of the San Diego Padres is another fitting comparison for Mr. Samardzija. After the 2012 season, Richard was arbitration-eligible for the second time and was 21 MLB Player Pitching Stats 2013, ESPN.com, 22 Quality starts is an official MLB statistic assigned to a pitcher who pitches at least 6 innings and gives up no more than 3 earned runs. Quality start percentage = Quality starts/total starts 23 Id. 6

9 awarded a 2013 salary of $5.24 million, a $2.535 million raise from his 2012 salary. 24 Like Mr. Samardzija, Richard pitched during his platform season at the front end of the Padres starting rotation. Platform Year GS W IP ERA WHIP SO SO/9 BAA QS% Samardzija ( 13) Richard ( 12) Both pitchers were workhorses, each amassing more than 210 innings for their respective clubs. Still, Mr. Samardzija held an advantage over Richard in BAA, SO, SO/9, and QS%. Samardzija struck out twice as many batters this past season as Richard did in his platform year (214 to 107, respectively). Over the course of their respective careers, Mr. Samardzija holds a distinct advantage in SO/9, BAA, OPS, and QS%. The two pitchers are very closely related in career ERA and WHIP. While the two pitchers numbers are comparable, Richard benefits from pitching his home games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Mr. Samardzija, on the other hand, pitches his home games in one of baseball s most hitter-friendly parks, Wrigley Field. This dichotomy can explain the differences in the ERA and WHIP performance in their respective platform years, as Richard held a slight advantage in these two categories. 26 Petco Park (2012 Season) Hits Allowed Runs Scored HR Allowed 2B Allowed 24 th Most 24 th Most 29 th Most 19 th Most Wrigley Field (2013 Season) Hits Allowed Runs Scored HR Allowed 2B Allowed 18 th Most 10 th Most 8 th Most 4 th Most 24 Clayton Richard Player Page, Baseball-Reference.com, 25 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, Baseball-Reference.com, 26 Major League 2013 Pitching Stats, Baseball-Reference.com, Major League 2012 Pitching Stats, Baseball- Reference.com, 7

10 Richard has also been less durable than Mr. Samardzija in his career. In 2011, Richard was limited to only 18 starts, as his season was cut short by a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery to smooth out the labrum, biceps tendon, and rotator cuff on his throwing arm. 27 By contrast, Mr. Samardzija has never been on the disabled list and has shown no signs of arm trouble over his career. Even with this past history of injuries, Richard was able to produce a full season of work in He avoided arbitration after the 2012 season by agreeing to a $5.25 million dollar salary for the 2013 season, which represented a $2.535 million raise from the San Diego Padres. 28 Due to the comparable statistical numbers displayed here, Mr. Samardzija is worthy of at least the raise that was given to Richard, which would put Mr. Samardzija s salary for 2014 at $5.175 million, well above the $4.90 million midpoint. c. John Lannan ($5.00 million) John Lannan of the Washington Nationals is also an appropriate comparison for Mr. Samardzija. In 2011, Lannan was arbitration eligible for the second time and was awarded a 2012 salary of $5.00 million, a raise of $2.25 million. Platform Year GS IP W ERA WHIP SO SO/9 QS% BAA OPS Samardzija ( 13) Lannan ( 11) In his platform season Lannan amassed career bests in ERA and wins, yet Mr. Samardzija clearly outperformed Lannan in numerous other important statistical categories, including IP, WHIP, SO, SO/9, QS%, and BAA. Both pitchers started the same number of games, but Mr. 27 Clayton Richard Has Shoulder Surgery, ESPN.com, 28 Clayton Richard Player Page, Baseball-Reference.com, 29 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, Baseball-Reference.com, John Lannan Player Page, Baseball-Reference.com, 8

11 Samardzija pitched 29 more innings than Lannan. On a per start average, Lannan averaged only 5.59 innings/start, while Mr. Samardzija averaged 6.49 innings/start. Mr. Samardzija had a better BAA (0.255 versus 0.272) and a better ability to strike out hitters (9.01 K/9 versus 5.16 K/9). In his platform season, Mr. Samardzija threw more innings and more pitches than Lannan. 30 The Cubs bullpen surrendered an average of 0.84 more runs per nine innings than the Nationals bullpen, further justifying the relative importance of Mr. Samardzija to pitch deeper into games to give the Cubs a better chance to win. 31 Because of Mr. Samardzija s importance to the Cubs starting rotation, his ability to pitch deeper into games, and an overall better platform season than Lannan, Mr. Samardzija deserves a raise above the $2.25 million that Lannan received after his platform season and above the $4.90 million midpoint at the center of this arbitration panel s decision. d. Mike Pelfrey/Justin Masterson ($5.68 and $5.69 million respectively) Originally two promising young starting pitching talents in MLB, Justin Masterson and Mike Pelfrey both struggled in their respective platform seasons and provide further evidence of Mr. Samardzija s value as a starting pitcher. Platform Year MLS GS IP W ERA WHIP SO SO/9 BAA QS% Salary Samardzija ( 13) ??? Masterson ( 12) M Pelfrey ( 11) M Mr. Samardzija outperformed both Masterson and Pelfrey in every major statistical category during their relative platform year. Based on this information, and knowing that Pelfrey and Masterson received salaries of $5.68 million and $5.69 million respectively, Mr. Samardzija 30 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, ESPN.com, John Lannan Player Page, ESPN.com, 31 Washington Nationals Pitching Stats 2011, ESPN.com, Chicago Cubs Pitching Stats 2013, ESPN.com, 9

12 would certainly deserve to be paid above the $4.90 million midpoint when compared to these two second-year arbitration eligible players. e. Comparable Player Summary Mr. Samardzija s 2014 salary should fall above the $5.10 million salary given to Rick Porcello, John Lannan s $5.00 million salary, Mike Pelfrey s $5.68 million salary, and Justin Masterson s $5.69 million salary. As the highlighted chart indicates, Mr. Samardzija simply outperformed each of the aforementioned players in most, if not all major statistical categories during their platform seasons. Mr. Samardzija s output falls in line with the production of Clayton Richard, and thus should be on par with Mr. Richard s raise of million and overall salary of $5.24 million. Player Platform year Year IP ERA WHIP SO SO/9 BAA QS Salary Porcello $5.10 Richard $5.24 Lannan $5.00 Pelfrey $5.68 Masterson $5.69 Samardzija ??? V. CONCLUSION Jeff Samardzija has proven to be a durable, consistent starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs. He also possesses a performance record that is clearly better than, or at a minimum, on par with several other comparable MLB pitchers. This case is clear-cut: Mr. Samardzija deserves a 2014 salary arbitration award above the $4.90 million midpoint, and thus should be awarded the requested $5.10 million from this arbitration panel. 10