TEAM 12. Case 1: SAM GAGNER. Acting for PLAYER

Transcription

1 TEAM 12 Case 1: SAM GAGNER Acting for PLAYER

2 1 1. Introduction This brief analyzes the statistics, attributes, comparable player salaries, and other factors of Sam Gagner ("Mr. Gagner"), center forward for the Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club (the "Club" or the "Oilers"), that are relevant to the estimation of appropriate salary compensation for the season. The National Hockey League Collective Bargaining Agreement ("CBA"), Article 12.9(g) sets the criteria for evidence that may be considered in this arbitration: (g)(ii) The parties may offer evidence of the following: A) the overall performance, including official statistics prepared by the League, of the Player in the previous season or seasons; B) the number of games played by the Player, his injuries or illnesses during the preceding seasons; C) the length of service of the Player in the League and/or with the Club; D) the overall contribution of the Player to the competitive success or failure of his Club in the preceding season; E) any special qualities of leadership or public appeal not inconsistent with the fulfillment of his responsibilities as a playing member of his team; F) the overall performance in the previous season or seasons of any Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player whose salary is in dispute. G) The compensation of any Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player, provided, however, that in applying this or any of the above subparagraphs, the Salary Arbitrator shall not consider a Player(s) to be comparable to the party Player unless a party to the arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable; nor shall the Salary Arbitrator consider the compensation or performance of a Player(s) unless a party to the arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable. This arbitration will give particular attention to Players alleged to be comparable to Mr. Gagner that were eligible for arbitration in the summer of or , and who were awarded 1-2 year contracts, either through negotiation with their Club or through a formal arbitration. Alleged comparable Players whose contracts began before the new CBA was 1 NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement. Available at

3 2 introduced in 2005 are not valid for the purposes of this arbitration. Mr. Gagner respectfully submits that the Salary Arbitrator find that he is entitled to receive a contract with an average annual value of $3.25 million. i. Average Annual Value versus Salary When offering contracts to players, NHL teams are first and foremost concerned about the annual cap hit of the contract, rather than the player's actually yearly salary. The average annual value of the contract, or the cap hit, is the number that affects the team's overall budget for players each year. Further, NHL teams often structure contracts strategically to accommodate player preferences, reward players for giving up unrestricted free agent years, or anticipate a decrease in playing ability. 2 Thus, the salary of a player for a given year only reflects his worth to the team if analyzed from the perspective of annual average value, or the cap hit. This approach also provides parity between players with one-year contracts (where annual average value and salary are necessarily the same), and players with longer contracts, whose annual salary for a given year may appear inflated or deflated when considered on its own 3. For these reasons, we propose the use of the average annual value of players' contracts when making evaluations about Mr. Quincey's value on the Red Wings, and comparing his worth to similar players in the League. 2. Overall Performance Mr. Gagner has convincingly established himself as a young and talented offensive centreman who has produced impressive offensive statistics while also improving his underlying defensive statistics year over year. His performance statistics are all the more impressive given 2 Derek R. Marr "The Puck Stops Here: Analysis of Salary Arbitration in the National Hockey League" at page 16. Available at: 3 ibid

4 3 his young age of 23 years old. 4 In Mr. Gagner s platform season, he produced 18 goals (4th most on his club), 29 assists (3rd most on his club), and 47 points (4th most on his club). 5 Mr. Gagner s contributions to his club s offensive output were especially impressive in the context of the powerplay: Although Mr. Gagner only averaged the 6th most power play ice among forwards on his club (2 minutes, 27 seconds per game), he ranked third in powerplay goals scored with 6, and 4th in powerplay points with 12. Impressively, Mr. Gagner was able to produce these offensive statistics while only receiving an average of 17 minutes and 10 seconds of ice time per game, which ranked as 7th most among forwards on his club in the season. Mr. Gagner s offensive potential was displayed for all to see in the February 2nd, 2012 game against the Chicago Blackhawks when he tied an NHL record by scoring 8 points (4 goals, 4 assists) in a single game. 6 While Mr. Gagner s offensive statistics have been quite consistent through his first 5 seasons in the NHL, his defensive statistics have improved and demonstrate him to be a reliable two-way player. In , Mr. Gagner was ranked first on his club in plus/minus with a +5. To give this statistic some context, the Edmonton Oilers as a club had a combined plus/minus of -136 while, as a team, allowed 30 more goals than they scored. Further, Mr. Gagner s plus/minus has improved from his previous two seasons where he was a -17, and -8, respectively. 3. Number of Games Played/Injuries and Illnesses Mr. Gagner has demonstrated himself to be a durable and reliable player, free of any major injuries, averaging 73 games played per season through his first 5 seasons in the NHL. It should also be noted that the injury that has caused Mr. Gagner to miss the largest number of games in his career was a hand laceration in the season. This injury to Mr. Gagner s 4 Note: Unless otherwise cited, all performance statistics are drawn from 5 Rankings provided by 6

5 4 hand was caused by the skate of teammate Ryan Jones as he was leaving the Oilers bench 7. This injury may be characterized as an accident, unrelated to Mr. Gagner s style of play or durability on the ice. Furthermore, Mr. Gagner has completely healed from this injury as evidenced by it not affecting his games played in the season. The other injuries that have affected Mr. Gagner s career include an ankle sprain in September 2011, a knee sprain during the season, and a hip flexor injury the same season. 8 Each of these injuries were minor and there is no reason to suspect that any of them will have any impact on Mr. Gagner s future performance. 4. Length Of Service Although Mr. Gagner is only 23 years old, he has completed 5 seasons in the NHL since being drafted 6th overall in the 2007 NHL entry draft. In these 5 seasons, Mr. Gagner has played a total of 366 games, which ranks second of any player drafted in the 2007 NHL entry draft, behind only Patrick Kane who was drafted first overall that year. 9 To give the high number of games played at such a young age by Mr. Gagner further context, it is worth noting that only one player from the 2006 entry draft, Jordan Staal (selected 2nd overall), has presently played more games than Mr. Gagner. Further, only 7 players from the 2005 NHL entry draft played more games than Mr. Gagner to date. These statistics further reinforce Mr. Gagner s durability and place within the NHL. Mr. Gagner has played all of these games with Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club and is familiar with the club s system, players, coaching, and management 5. Overall Contribution The Edmonton Oilers may accurately be characterized as one of the least successful teams in the NHL in the past few seasons. This is reinforced by their statistical records the past three seasons where they respectively finished 30th, 30th, and 29th, out of 30 teams. Despite this

6 5 lack of success, Mr. Gagner s statistics demonstrate that he was a contributing factor to the success the Oilers did experience while his defensive play helped limit goals against. One of the few categories in which the Oilers were among the top teams in the league in was the powerplay where Mr. Gagner scored 6 goals and 6 assists despite only receiving the 6th most power play ice time among Oilers forwards. Mr. Gagner placed 3rd in powerplay goals on his time and 4th in total power play points despite his limited ice time. Mr. Gagner s contribution to the Oilers powerplay helped them rank third in the NHL with a powerplay effieciency of 20.8%. The Oilers have additionally benefitted from Mr. Gagner being a right handed shooter. Within the NHL, 60% of forwards are left handed, 10 which limits their ability to handle the puck on the left side of the ice. Right-handed shots also have the advantage of a better angle to shoot from on the left wing 11. This is particularly important on the powerplay as it allows the Club more options for strategic positioning, and is likely to have contributed to the Oilers success on the powerplay. 12 Mr. Gagner has also been an integral part of the Oilers shootout roster in the past few seasons. Most recently, Mr. Gagner placed 6th overall in the NHL in the season with 6 goals on 9 attempts in the shootout for a 66.7% success rate. Mr. Gagner was far and away the best shootout performer on the Oilers roster, with the next most successful shooters being Ales Hemsky who scored 3 goals on 6 attempts and Jordan Eberle who scored 3 goals on 12 attempts. Mr Gagner s proficiency in the shootout helped the Oilers win 5 of 12 shootouts, thus directly helping the Oilers secure 5 additional points in the standings. 6. Leadership and Public Appeal ibid

7 6 Mr. Gagner has received a number of accolades that speak to his leadership skills and public appeal, as well as his athletic abilities. After the NHL season in which Mr. Gagner was the youngest player in the NHL, Mr. Gagner was named Oilers Rookie of the Year. That same season, Mr. Gagner was selected as one of the most talented and promising young players by the NHL to play in the young stars game as part of the NHL s all star weekend 13. In this game Mr. Gagner recorded one goal. Later that season, Mr. Gagner was the youngest player selected to represent Team Canada at the men s World Ice Hockey Championships in Quebec and Nova Scotia Canada, earning a silver medal with Team Canada 14. Mr. Gagner is the oldest member of a young talented group of players for the Edmonton Oilers hockey club and has served as a leader to these players for the past two seasons. Mr. Gagner has demonstrated his leadership ability on the ice by sticking up for teammates and fighting twice in the season despite his less than imposing height and weight. Though Mr. Gagner has played on the Oilers second line in recent seasons, several hockey analysts have opined that teams across the NHL feel that Mr. Gagner is ready to take a step forward and play as a first line centreman. For example, hockey analyst Nick Kypreos wrote about other NHL teams perception of Mr. Gagner stating that other teams now believe that if you surround him with top players, like a Rick Nash or an Eric Staal in Carolina, that this guy could be a legitimate number one centerman Comparables Mr. Gagner s financial worth to the Edmonton Oilers may be most accurately ascertained by comparison to the salaries of similar players:

8 7 i. David Perron When assessing NHL players against similar or comparable players, rarely do two players share the high number of similarities seen between David Perron and Sam Gagner. David Perron is 24 years old (14 months older than Mr. Gagner) and was drafted 26th overall in the 2007 NHL entry draft, 20 spots after Mr. Gagner. Both players are offense-minded, rightshooting forwards of average size with comparable offensive statistics. David Perron, therefore, serves as a very relevant and useful comparison in the determination of Mr. Gagner s monetary worth. Since entering the NHL, David Perron has played in 292 games, with totals of 74 goals, 143 assists, and 220 points through 5 seasons. Though Mr. Perron and Mr. Gagner both entered the NHL in the season, Mr. Gagner has played in 74 more games and produced 47 more points. In Mr. Perron s platform season, he scored 21 goals, and 42 points in 57 games played for a points per game rate of Mr. Gagner scored 18 goals and 47 points in 75 games for a points per game rate of Like Mr. Gagner, Mr. Perron was used in the shootout; however, Mr. Perron was far less successful, scoring on only one of seven attempts. While these two players have produced similar offensive statistics, an important distinguishing feature between the two is their injury history. Mr. Gagner has experienced only minor injuries through his first 5 seasons while Mr. Perron suffered a serious concussion in November 2010 and missed 97 consecutive games with post concussion syndrome from November 5, 2010 until December 2, Mr. Perron rebounded well from his injury to contribute to a winning team in his platform season but with concussion concerns being on the mind of managers across the league after former Hart Trophy winner Sydney Crosby missed

9 8 over a calendar year of hockey with similar issues, the risk involved in signing someone with Mr. Perron s serious injury history surely limited his financial value. Mr. Perron is currently signed to a 4 year deal with the St. Louis Blues hockey club with a salary cap of million dollars per year. Mr. Perron s salary is $3.0 million in but increases to $3.5 million in , $4.0 million in , and $4.5 million in Though Mr. Perron s current salary is $3.0 million which is $ less than Mr. Gagner s in the upcoming season, his contract was clearly structured within the framework of the salary cap and Mr. Perron s cap hit of $ million may be a more useful comparison. Though the Edmonton Oilers hockey club may argue that Mr. Perron received more money to sign long term, the risk involved in signing a one year contract must also be considered. That is, if Mr. Gagner is seriously injured, he will not have the security of Mr. Perron who will be compensated for another 3 seasons. In summary, Mr. Gagner is 14 months younger than Mr. Perron and has played 74 more NHL games and has scored 47 more NHL points. Further, Mr. Gagner is a proven shoot out performer who scored more points in his platform year than Mr. Perron and demonstrated himself to be reliable defensively. For all these reasons, Mr. Gagner s cap hit should not be lower than David Perron s $ per season, yet Mr. Gagner s cap hit is $ less than Mr. Perron s in the season. ii. Brandon Dubinsky Mr. Dubinsky signed a four year contract with the New York Rangers hockey club in July 2011 with a salary cap hit of $4.25 million dollars. Mr. Dubinsky was paid $3.75 million in the season and will be paid $3.75 million in and $4.65 million for the

10 , and seasons. 16 Mr. Dubinsky serves as a useful comparable player to Mr. Gagner as both players were young, restricted free agent forwards at the time they signed their most recent contracts. Though Mr. Dubinsky s salary is much higher than Mr. Gagner s, Mr. Dubinsky s offensive statistics were similar to Mr. Gagner s. In the season, which was Mr. Dubinsky s platform season, he scored 24 goals, 30 assists, and 54 points. Mr. Dubinsky followed up this performance by scoring 10 goals, 14 assists, and 24 points in the season. In comparison, Mr. Gagner scored 23 more points including 10 more points on the power play. Further, Mr. Dubinsky finished his platform season with a plus/minus of -3 on a New York Rangers team that was cumulatively a +86. Mr. Gagner, by comparison, was a +5 on an Oilers team that was cumulatively a Mr. Gagner s comparable offensive stats and superior defensive stats signify that his salary should be at least equivalent to Mr. Dubinsky s current $3.75 million, or $4.25 million cap hit. Further, Mr. Gagner is 2 years younger than Mr. Dubinsky was when he signed his contract after his platform season, indicating that Mr. Gagner has a greater potential for development and improvement. iii. Clarke MacArthur Mr. MacArthur is currently signed to a 2 year contract for $3.25 million per season with the Toronto Maple Leafs hockey club. Mr. McArthur is 4 years older and has played 2 more NHL seasons than Mr. Gagner, therefore having less potential for future development. Despite being older and having spent more time in the NHL than Mr. Gagner, Mr. MacArthur has played in 3 less games over their careers and has produced 27 less points. In the NHL season, Mr. MacArthur scored 20 goals, 23 assists, and 43 points for the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the aforementioned considerations as to Mr. Gagner s superior offensive statistics, and greater number of NHL games played despite being four years younger and having greater 16

11 10 potential for future development and improvement, Mr. Gagner s salary should at least be in line with Mr. MacArthur s $3.25 million per season, yet is being compensated less. 8. Conclusion Despite his young age, Mr. Gagner has been able to establish himself as an integral part of the Oiler's offense. During his 5 years on the Club's roster, Mr. Gagner has played 366 NHL games, scored over 40 points every season, and has steadily improved every aspect of his game. Not only did he have a career high year in goals and average points per game in the platform year, but he tied an NHL record for most points in a single game, with 8 points against the Chicago Blackhawks. 17 Mr. Gagner has also demonstrated that he is a highly effective player on the powerplay and in shootouts. It is this offensive skill and durability that has made Mr. Gagner an asset to the Club. Further, at only 23 years of age, Mr. Gagner has continued to showcase his potential to develop into an elite forward in the NHL, the value of which cannot be overlooked, especially for a young team such as Edmonton who are looking to build for the future. Mr. Gagner deserves a salary that reflects that of similar players, Mr. Gagner's offensive skill, and his potential for future development in the Club. Mr. Gagner submits that $3.25 million per year would be fair compensation given these considerations. 17