to the Kansas City Royals for the purposes of an arbitration hearing governed by the Major

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1 I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision This brief identifies and analyzes the contributions made by center fielder Lorenzo Cain to the Kansas City Royals for the purposes of an arbitration hearing governed by the Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ). Permitted criteria consist of the following: quality of contributions made to the club during the past season, career contributions, past compensation, comparative player salaries, physical defects, and recent club performance. Based on the criteria identified in the CBA, Lorenzo Cain is entitled to a salary in excess of the $2.725 million midpoint, and requests that the panel award him a salary in the amount of $3.35 million for the 2015 season. II. Quality of Contributions Made During the Past Season During the 2014 regular season, Lorenzo Cain submitted an all-around campaign sufficient to classify him as one of the best centerfielders in all of baseball. Cain posted careerhighs in games played, runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average, on-base percentage, and winsabove-replacement (WAR) in 2014, 1 functioning as an integral part of a Kansas City Royals team who reached the playoffs for the first time in twenty-nine years. Cain s 2014 offensive output was well above-average; however, his most valuable contribution to the team s success was unquestionably his exceptional defense, as he ranked as the best defensive centerfielder in the American league last season. 2 Exceptional outfield defense is especially important to the Royals, for two reasons: Kansas City is a below-average offensive team 3, and Kaufmann Stadium (the Royals home ballpark) boasts the largest outfield in Major League Baseball, and 1 Statistics courtesy of 2 Per defensive runs saved metric, which measures players in terms of the runs they saved (or surrendered) as a product of their defensive performance over the course of the year as compared to a leagueaverage defender. DRS accounts for each individual defensive play made by a player during the season. 3 The Royals ranked ninth out of 15 American League teams in Runs Scored in 2014.

2 thus, the presents the biggest defensive challenge to outfielders. 4 In his role as starting centerfielder, Cain served as the anchor for the best defensive outfield in baseball in 2014, which makes him a valuable piece for any MLB team, and an essential part of Kansas City s past, present, and future success. 5 Lorenzo Cain s regular season performance was exceptional in 2014, and he was even better in the playoffs. Offensively, Cain improved on his regular-season numbers in almost every category: Table 1: Lorenzo Cain Offensive Production Regular Season vs. Playoffs 6 Games Runs Average OBP RBI Steals OPS 2014 Reg. Season Post-Season Post-Season Projections Cain s excellent post-season performance was at its best in the ALCS against the Baltimore Orioles, for which his.533 batting average,.588 OBP, and OPS were enough to earn him ALCS MVP honors. 7 Cain s most memorable post-season moment, however, came in the ALDS against the owners of the best record in baseball, the Los Angeles Angels, and was (as his regular-season resume might suggest) achieved with his glove rather than his bat. In Game 3, with the Angels threatening with two runners on base and one out, Cain made two spectacular diving catches on consecutive plays to rob the Angels of two runs and secure the series sweep for the Royals. Lorenzo Cain was the best player in the playoffs for a Royals team that made an 4 In terms of square footage; the larger the area of an outfield, the more likely it is that a fly ball or line drive will land safely for a hit as opposed to being caught for an out. 5 Per DRS metric. 6 Lorenzo Cain Player Page, Baseball-Reference 7 Lorenzo Cain wins ALCS MVP, CBS Sports

3 improbable and franchise-rejuvenating run which culminated in only Kansas City s second ever World Series appearance. III. Career Contributions Lorenzo Cain was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2004 and made his MLB debut in In 2011, he was part of a five-player trade which sent him to Kansas City, for whom he played six games in 2011 and began contributing as the starting centerfielder in Upon designation as the Royals everyday center fielder, Cain produced immediately, batting.266 with 7 HR and 31 RBI in only 61 games before suffering a groin injury which sidelined him for the remainder of the season. 9 Additionally, although he only played 61 games in 2012, his excellence in the outfield was apparent enough to earn him the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Award, an honor he has received in every year since Undeniably, 2014 was Cain s best season to date; however, his career statistics indicate that his recent success can be attributed to his improvement as a baseball player, as opposed to simply a lucky outlier season. Over the course of his young career, Lorenzo Cain has proven himself to be an above-average hitter, an outstanding baserunner, and an elite defensive outfielder: Table 2: Lorenzo Cain 2014 Offensive and Defensive Statistics vs. Career 11 Average OBP OPS SB/ DEF Rank 13 SpScr 14 WAR/ Career (358 Games) Lorenzo Cain player page, ESPN, 9 Id. 10 Id. 11 Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.com, 12 Stolen Bases per 150 games played, FanGraphs 13 Ranking among MLB centerfielders, FanGraphs, minimum 1000 innings played 14 Speed Score, calculated by compiling a player s Stolen Base percentage, Frequency of SB attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored, FanGraphs 15 Wins Above Replacement Player per 150 games played, FanGraphs. The calculation for WAR will be discussed at length later in this brief.

4 The statistics included in Table 2 show that while Cain did enjoy a statistical improvement across the board in 2014, the improvements were relatively modest. This modest improvement indicates that Cain did not have a miracle season in 2014 nor did he enjoy an unusual amount of luck, but rather he is simply getting better at baseball as he accumulates major league experience. This bodes well for Cain and the Royals in the future, both of whom stand to benefit from Cain s continued improvement as a batter and his consistently phenomenal base running and defense. IV. Comparative Baseball Player Salaries Lorenzo Cain is an especially difficult player for whom to find adequate comparisons for several reasons. For example, Cain is able to play multiple outfield positions, as evidenced by the tendency of the Royals to shift him to right field late in games where they are tied or leading. 16 Furthermore, his value as a player depends largely on defensive prowess, a skill that has only recently become objectively quantifiable and was (unwisely) ignored by the league, at least until the success of Billy Beane s Moneyball strategies forced teams to take a closer look at defensive metrics. 17 The forthcoming player comparisons give the best picture of Cain s value to the Royals, and will establish Lorenzo Cain as a player worth substantially more than the $2.725 million midpoint. For the purposes of player comparisons, a significant portion of the analysis will use a statistic called Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is a somewhat complicated statistic, and as such it requires an adequate explanation. WAR is used to evaluate players in terms of the 16 Explaining the Kansas City Royals Postseason Offensive Explosion, Jonah Keri via Grantland.com, 17 Judging Defense Becoming Key, Peter Gammons, ESPN,

5 wins that their individual performance adds to the overall performance of their team; more specifically, WAR encompasses the total value provided by a player in terms of the wins that a team could expect to have with that player on their team, as opposed to a league-average replacement player. WAR is calculated by determining the amount of runs that can be attributed to a player individually (batting runs + base running runs + fielding runs), adjusting for the value of a player s defensive position, 18 determining the league-wide average for runs per win, then comparing the amount of runs a particular player is worth over his hypothetical league-average replacement. 19 WAR also controls for park factors, giving less weight to offensive performance at ballparks where runs are more easily scored (e.g. Colorado, Boston) and giving a bump to players who play in pitcher-friendly ballparks (e.g. Atlanta, Oakland). A. B.J. Upton ($3 million in 2010, Arbitrator ruled in favor of team) B.J. Upton was awarded $3 million in 2010 as a result of arbitration proceedings (an amount in excess of the $2.725 million midpoint), even though the Arbitrator ruled in favor of the Tampa Bay Rays. However, statistical analysis indicates that Lorenzo Cain was a more valuable player than Upton in both his platform year as well as over the three-year period leading up to their first year of arbitration eligibility. Since Upton s award is in excess of the midpoint, Cain s award should be as well. Table 3: Statistical Comparison of B.J. Upton vs. Lorenzo Cain Platform Season 3-Year Splits Avg. SB/150 OPS DEF* WAR Avg. SB/150 OPS DEF** WAR/150 Cain (2014) Upton *Defensive (2009) Runs Saved in Outfield **Average DEF/year 18 Offensive positions like 1B, 3B, LF, and RF are treated differently than positions where defensive skill is more valuable, like C, 2B, SS, and CF. 19 For a detailed discussion of WAR, see FanGraphs explanation at

6 According to the platform year statistics, Upton has a clear advantage over Cain in stolen bases per 150 games; however, Cain s platform year was as good or better than Upton in every other statistical category. Cain s platform-season value over Upton is most clearly evident in terms of WAR; in 2014, Cain was worth an additional five wins to the Royals, whereas Upton was only worth 2.2 additional wins to the Rays in 2009, a difference of 2.8 wins. Consider the following: if the Royals had B.J. Upton in his platform year of 2009 instead of Lorenzo Cain last year, the Royals would have finished with a record of and missed out on the playoffs by one game to the Seattle Mariners. Without Cain s production in 2014, the Royals never make the playoffs, their magical run to the World Series never happens, and the fans in Kansas City would have been disappointed for the 30th consecutive season. B. Jon Jay ($3.25 million in 2014) Stylistically, St. Louis Cardinals centerfielder Jon Jay provides an excellent comparison to Lorenzo Cain; both players were 28 years old during their platform seasons, both players depend more on their speed and defensive ability than raw power, and both players led their respective teams on impressive post-season runs to the World Series in their platform years. Table 4: Statistical Comparison of Jon Jay vs. Lorenzo Cain 20 Platform Season Career 21 AVG HR RBI DEF WAR AVG HR RBI DEF WAR Cain (2014) Jay (2013) The stats suggest that Jon Jay is a marginally more productive offensive player than Cain, but the difference between the two is extremely slight. Yet again, the value difference between the two players is a product of Cain s vastly superior defensive ability. Since 2010, Lorenzo Cain ranks 20 Statistics courtesy Baseball Prospectus, 21 Excludes statistics accrued in games played after the player s first year of arbitration eligibility. 22 A negative DEF value indicates that a player is worse defensively than league average at their position.

7 fourth among MLB outfielders in DEF; over that same time span, and with an extra year of playing time, Jay ranks 43rd. 23 Yet again, Cain s platform season and career advantage in WAR can be attributed to his defensive superiority over Jay, which are obviously substantial. Given the marginal difference between the two players offensively, and the vast disparity between their respective defensive abilities, it stands to reason that Cain is entitled to an award no lower than the 1-year, $3.25 million contract given to Jay in avoidance of his first year of arbitration. C. Brett Gardner ($2.8 Million in 2012) Yankees centerfielder Brett Gardner provides the first example of a player who can match Lorenzo Cain s pre-arbitration defensive output. Gardner also represents one of the few players who has been able to successfully leverage his defensive skill set into a valuable award. Table 5: Pre-Arbitration Statistical Comparison of Brett Gardner vs. Lorenzo Cain Games AVG OBP HR RBI R OPS DEF WAR Cain Gardner Statistically speaking, Cain and Gardner are almost indistinguishable. Offensively, Cain hits for slightly better average and power, but Gardner gets on base more often. The large difference between the two players in Runs Scored can likely be attributed to two factors: Gardner had played in 59 more games than Cain, and also played for a team (the Yankees) that had a substantially better offensive lineup than the Royals. Gardner s advantages in both DEF and WAR can also be attributed to the fact that he played in 59 extra games, as both DEF and WAR measure accumulated defensive runs saved and wins, respectively. 23 FanGraphs, season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20%2cd

8 The statistics indicate that Brett Gardner and Lorenzo Cain are nearly mirror-images of each other as baseball players, both offensively and defensively. During Gardner s first year of arbitration eligibility (2011), the average MLB salary stood at $3,095,183; the average salary in 2014 was $3,818,923, 24 which represents a 23 percent increase. Using Gardner s $2.8 million salary following the 2011 season as a baseline, an award of equal value for the 2015 season would be approximately $3.44 million, well in excess of the $2.725 million midpoint. Due to the obvious statistical similarities between Lorenzo Cain and Brett Gardner, it is apparent that Cain deserves an award very close to the $3.44 million adjusted figure. V. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects Lorenzo Cain has missed significant time due to injury twice during his career. In 2012, Cain was only able to play in 61 games due to a nagging groin injury. 25 Additionally, after starting the season healthy in 2013, Cain was placed on the 15-day DL due to a minor oblique injury from which he was able to return and play in 115 games. These injuries were unfortunate, but are not sufficient indicators of any detrimental impact on Cain s future health or performance, as he is currently 100% healthy. Additionally, his minor-league record suggests that Cain is not injury-prone, as he was healthy for a substantial majority of his minor league seasons. 26 Furthermore, Cain was healthy for the entirety of the 2014 season, only missing games due to managerial decisions and much-needed rest. There is no evidence to suggest that Lorenzo Cain s future performance or availability will be significantly hindered by injury. VI. Recent Performance of the Club 24 MLB Average Salary Exceeds $3.8 Million, Fox Sports, 25 Lorenzo Cain Player Page, ESPN.com; Lorenzo Cain put on disabled list in series of KC roster moves, Kansas City Star, 26 Lorenzo Cain FanGraphs player page.

9 Since Lorenzo Cain became a starter for the Kansas City Royals in 2012, the team has improved in each year. 27 In 2012, Kansas City won 72 games and finished third in the AL Central, improving on their fourth-place finish in The improvement was even more substantial in 2013, in which the Royals won 86 games and finished in third place, no doubt in large part due to Cain s expanded role with the team. In 2014, Cain led the Royals to an record, good enough to secure a wild-card berth and a spot in the AL playoffs. Perhaps most importantly of all, Cain raised his level of play during the 2014 playoffs, leading the Royals to eight straight playoff wins (including back-to-back sweeps in the ALDS and ALCS) and a franchise-record eleven total playoff wins. Cain s post-season heroics brought the Royals to the brink of a World Series championship, which amounted to the second-best finish in franchise history and Kansas City s first playoff berth in nearly three decades. VII. Past Compensation Although Cain has performed at a high level in each of his major-league seasons, he has earned close to the league minimum in each year leading up to his first year of arbitration eligibility. Lorenzo Cain earned $546,000 in VIII. Conclusion Lorenzo Cain has been a consistently above-average performer for the Kansas City Royals ever since he joined the team in 2011, and his 2014 campaign cemented him as one of the best all-around center fielders in the MLB. Traditionally, players who hang their hat on defensive output are undervalued; however, not only are elite defensive players like Cain finally being recognized (and paid) as valuable assets, but he has posted great offensive numbers to pair with his consistently excellent defense. Lorenzo Cain s career body of work and his superb platform season in 2014 demonstrate that his 27 Royals ESPN Team Page, 28 Baseball-Prospectus, Salaries and Contracts

10 value to the Royals clearly exceeds the $2.725 million midpoint, a reality that only becomes more clear when Cain is compared to similar players. Cain equaled (and possibly exceeded) B.J. Upton s offensive output in the three seasons prior to their first year of arbitration eligibility, and was out of Upton s league defensively; if Upton was worth $3 million in 2010, Cain is worth significantly more than $3 million in Cain is a stylistically comparable offensive talent to Jon Jay over the course of their respective careers, and was miles better than Jay defensively in their respective platform seasons. The closest comparison to Cain is Brett Gardner, as he was able to match Cain s defensive output while producing similar offensive statistics. Given that Gardner was awarded $2.8 million in 2012 (an amount in excess of the midpoint on its own), and considering the sizeable increase in the average MLB salary from the platform years of 2011 and 2014, respectively, Lorenzo Cain has earned and is entitled to an award in significant excess of the $2.725 million midpoint. For these reasons, we respectfully request that the arbitration panel find for Lorenzo Cain and award him $3.35 million.