2015 NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION. Lorenzo Cain v. Kansas City Royals (MLB) SUBMISSION ON BEHALF OF KANSAS CITY ROYALS BASEBALL CLUB

Transcription

1 2015 NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION Lorenzo Cain v. Kansas City Royals (MLB) SUBMISSION ON BEHALF OF KANSAS CITY ROYALS BASEBALL CLUB Salary Midpoint: $2.725 Submission by: Team 27

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision 1 II. Quality of the Player's Contribution During the Past Season 1 III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions 4 IV. Past Player Compensation 5 V. Comparative Baseball Salaries 6 VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Deficiencies 8 VII. Recent Performance of the Club 9 VIII. Conclusion 10 Baseball-Reference, Sports Reference, LLC, Beyond the Box Score, Cot's Baseball Contracts, ESPN, ESPN Internet Ventures, MLB, Fangraphs, Fox Sports, MLB, MLB Advanced Media, L.P., MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Basic Agreement. Scoreboard, STATS INC. LLC, Spotrac, YAHOO! Sports, YAHOO! INC.,

3 I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision The purpose of this brief is to provide relevant information which may be used to aid the arbitration hearing process which will determine the 2015 salary of Lorenzo Lamar Cain (Mr. Cain), outfielder for the Kansas City Royals Baseball Club ( Royals, Club, Team ). Relevant information provided will include Mr. Cain's statistics, statistics of comparable players, salary information of Major League Baseball ("MLB") players, considerations of the Royals, and a health and mental analysis of Mr. Cain. The MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement ("CBA") is an agreement between the 30 Major League Clubs and the Major League Baseball Players Association ("Players Association"), which governs terms and conditions of employment for Major League Baseball players 1. CBA Article VI, Section E sets out the criteria and procedures for arbitration proceedings 2. The criteria the arbitration panel may consider includes: (1) the quality of Mr. Cain's contribution to the Royals during the past season, (2) the length and consistency of his career contributions, (3) the record of Mr. Cain's past compensation, (4) comparative baseball salaries, (5) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of Mr. Cain, and (6) the recent performance record of the Royals 3. The arbitration panel shall give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player s annual service group 4. The Royals request the arbitration panel consider the information presented below and in oral argument to award Mr. Cain no more than the Club's salary offer of $2.1 million. II. Quality of the Player's Contribution During the Past Season Lorenzo Cain had his first season of 500 plate appearances and 400 at bats in the 2014 platform season 5. He played in 133 games, all in the outfield 6. The Team was pleased he was 1 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Basic Agreement, Article I. 2 Id. at Article VI(E). 3 Id. at 10(a). 4 Id. 1

4 able to stay healthy for most of the platform season, after playing only 176 games in 2012 and 2013 combined 7. The Royals have concerns regarding Mr. Cain s ability to remain healthy in order to continue contributing to the club. While ranking 14th in the league in batting average in 2014 at.301 (players with over 500 PA), he ranks 138nd in walks with A figure that troubles the Team is Mr. Cain s Batting Average on Balls in Play, standing at.380 in 2014, first among all batters in the league, a full 7 points ahead of second place at With an underwhelming walk percentage of 4.8%, good for 130th among all batters with over 500 plate appearances, and a strikeout percentage of 21.5%, 34th highest in the league among all batters with over 500 plate appearances 10, the Team worries that next season as Mr. Cain s Batting Average on Balls in Play naturally regresses towards the league average of around , both his batting average and on base percentage will drastically dip as we see very low walk numbers as well as a high strikeout percentage, especially for a player with minimal power. With 28 steals on the season, it s extremely important that Mr. Cain s on base percentage improve from 55th in the league at While the offensive numbers have been somewhat deceiving, and there is a past of injury trouble, the Team does believe that Lorenzo Cain is a legitimate starting outfielder and should be paid as such, and would like to offer him a salary of $2.1 million in 2015, a $1.554 million dollar increase from his 2014 salary. Mr. Cain remains a strong defensive outfielder, though in centerfield he ranked behind teammates Alex Gordon and Jarrod Dyson in 5 Lorenzo Cain Baseball Reference Player Page, 6 Id. 7 Id. 8 Fangraphs 2014 batting statistics, Dashboard Stats =2014&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players= 9 Fangraphs 2014 batting statistics, Advanced Stats, =2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d 10 Id. 11 Fangraphs BABIP page, 12 Supra n. 8 2

5 UZR in In postseason play, Mr. Cain performed well enough in the ALCS to win the series MVP award 14. This was only after struggling in the ALDS recording only 2 hits in 3 games with zero walks for a.154 batting average and.143 on base percentage 15. The Team is pleased with his overall performance, and would like him to continue to man the outfield creating an excellent fielding tandem with Alex Gordon, but we are looking for more consistency out of the 28 year old. For example, in the month of July as the Royals were pushing the Tigers for the AL Central lead 16, Cain staggered in the month, batting.250 with 22 strikeouts to only 3 walks in 22 games 17. In 54 at bats in 2014 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, Cain hit.241 with 14 strikeouts and 3 walks, and in 11 games with the bases loaded, hit In 61 games in 2014 against AL Central opponents, Mr. Cain batted over 30 points below his season average at.270, with 56 strikeouts to only 6 walks 19. G AB R H HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP Team* Rank 20 League* Rank * Each ranking represents Cain s numerical ranking among players on the Royals and league wide respectively with over 500 plate appearances for sample size legitimacy The Team s concern over the rankings displayed above are the volatile nature of each statistical category in which Mr. Cain ranks within the top 3 on the team or relatively high in the 13 Fangraphs, Royals Statistics Page, 014&ind=0&team=7&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,d 14 Supra n Supra n MLB 2014 Standings, 17 Baseball Reference Player 2014 Game Log, 18 Yahoo Sports Player Situational Stats, 19 Yahoo Sports Player Split Stats, 20 Supra n Supra n. 8 3

6 league. This is not to include negative statistics like strikeouts given their face value evaluation. Categories such as average, on base percentage, slugging, and OPS are all statistics that are largely influenced by the most alarming of Mr. Cain s statistics, Batting Average on Balls in Play. The following calculation is based on players with over 500 plate appearances in a season: The average league leading BABIP since the 2000 season is.384, and the average BA of those league leaders is The very next season for each player which led the league in BABIP since 2000, their BABIP dropped to an average of.339, and their BA dropped to.297, a drop of 45 points in BABIP in the following season and 36 points in BA the following season 23. There is a very clear correlation between the two statistics, and a player whose statistic rely heavily on BABIP is a cause for concern when predicting future performance. III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions Mr. Cain has been with the Royals since he was traded from Milwaukee in December of He was drafted by the Brewers in the 2006 amateur draft (17th round), and made his major league debut at the age of 24 for the Brewers in In 2010, Cain played 43 games with the Brewers and 84 combined games in AA and AAA within the Brewers farm system 26. He flashed defensive ability and displayed some offensive skills after a late July call up to finish the 2010 season in the majors. After a December 2010 trade sent him to Kansas City, Cain began the 2011 season in Omaha with the Royals AAA team, playing 122 games there before playing 6 games with the Royals in late September 27. In 2012 after a strong spring training, Cain started the season just 2 for 15 before a groin injury sent him to the DL, after rehab stints and further injury, he eventually returned to the Team in mid-july, and played 56 games 22 Fangraphs Batting Statistics Dashboard, season by season, &ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 23 Supra n Fox Sports Player Page, Career Transactions, 25 Supra n Baseball Reference Minor League Stats, 27 Supra n. 26 4

7 the rest of the season 28. He was strong defensively but certainly did not find his offensive rhythm. He started the 2013 strong, batting.325 in April, but quickly derailed and dropped to.247 in May and then.205 in June 29. He would struggle again with injuries and played a combined 44 games in July, August and September, batting.240 during that span, a lowly.185 in September alone with a.214 OBP 30. After a hot start to the 2014 season, Cain was again sidelined with a groin injury and sat through a another DL stint from April 16th to May 5th 31. After missing one game before April 16th, then 17 games until May 5th, Cain missed 11 more games throughout the season, a trend that the Team finds unsettling 32. G AB R H HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP Totals IV. Past Player Compensation Mr. Cain was paid $480,850 in 2012, $503,175 in 2013, and $546,000 in The per game played cost of Mr. Cain s services over the last three seasons with the Royals comes out to $4, The per game cost had Mr. Cain remained healthy for the full three seasons would be $3,148, showing the detriment of his value to the team when injuries cause missed games. In 2014 Mr. Cain was the highest paid centerfielder on the Royals Baseball Reference Player Page, 2012 Game Logs, 29 Baseball Reference Player Page, 2013 Game Logs, 30 Supra n Supra n Supra n Supra n Spotrac, Royals Team Page, 5

8 V. Comparative Baseball Salaries For the purposes of comparative salaries, provided below is a comparison of three major league outfielders and Mr. Cain. Provided for each is the season in which they had a similar salary to Mr. Cain s 2014 salary (salary 1), their salary the very next season also in the competitive range of the salaries before us for Mr. Cain (salary 2), and their statistics for the season of salary 1 prior to receiving salary 2. Players Season Salary 1 Salary 2 Age G AB R H HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Davis 2009 $410k $1.35m De Aza 2012 $495k $2.075m Bonifacio 2011 $425k $2.2m Cain 2014 $546k N/A The first player comparison is outfielder Rajai Davis, currently of the Detroit Tigers. The season under review is Davis 2009 campaign with the Oakland Athletics, playing in 125 games, 113 in centerfield 36. Davis had service time of on opening day of the 2010 season, less than a year less of service time than Mr. Cain will have at the start of the 2015 season (3.074) 37. Davis missed games sporadically throughout the season at age 28, but successfully posted a.305 average,.360 on base percentage stealing 41 bases on the year as well 38. In 81 fewer at bats, Davis recorded more walks, more runs, more steals, and almost the same number of rbi s and homeruns as Cain in his platform season. Among all outfielders in 2009 with 800 or more innings, Davis had the 21 st highest UZR, 6 th highest among all centerfielders 39. This is to exemplify that while more productive and efficient offensively, Davis was also very competent and valuable defensively. He was paid a salary of $1,350,000 in 2010 by the A s, a fair value for his production, and significantly lower than the Royals offer of $2,100,000 to Mr. Cain for Baseball Reference Player Pages 36 Baseball Reference Rajai Davis Player Page, 37 Supra n Supra n Fangraphs Fielding Statistics yearly, 014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 6

9 Alejandro De Aza was 28 years old in 2012, the season we are examining, and his service time at the start of the 2013 season was 3.139, only.065 more than Mr. Cain will have opening 2015 at Earning a salary of $495,000 in 2012, De Aza played 131 games to Cain s 133, 125 of which were played in centerfield 42. In fewer games, De Aza had significantly more runs and walks than Cain, as well as more hits and homeruns 43. He posted similar numbers in rbi s, stolen bases, and strikeouts, and while his average was slightly lower than Cain s, he had a much higher on base percentage 44. De Aza ranked in the top half of centerfielders league wide in UZR, and the White Sox paid him fair value to return in 2013 for $2,075,000, still less than the Royals offer to Mr. Cain, despite the higher productivity from De Aza 45. The final comparison is Emilio Bonifacio, and the comparative season is 2011, where his service time at the start of 2012 was 3.066, only.008 less than Cain s service time come opening day In 2011 Bonifacio made $425,000, playing in 152 games, splitting his time between outfield and infield, proving to be a valuable commodity with flexible skills 47. Playing in more games than Cain, Bonifacio had more runs, hits, stolen bases, more than double the walks, and the same number of homeruns 48. He had an average.005 lower than Cain, but an on base percentage.021 higher 49. The Marlins retained Bonifacio for the follow season for $2,200,000, a figure much lower than the current midpoint of $2,725, Bonifacio produces offensively similar if not better numbers than Cain, and also allows defensive flexibility for the Team s manager with his ability to play both the outfield and infield. In 2011 he played in centerfield, 40 Supra n Baseball Reference De Aza Player Page, 42 Supra n Supra n Supra n Supra n Baseball Reference Bonifacio Player Page, 47 Supra n Supra n Supra n Supra n. 46 7

10 leftfield, rightfield, shortstop, third base, and second base 51. These three players compare and in many cases exceed the offensive ability of Mr. Cain, and their following season s contract is a concrete valuation of such statistical figures and production. There remains little question as to the actual worth of Mr. Cain after a direct correlative demonstration of like players, at like positions, at like stages in their careers. VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Deficiencies While on field performance remains a driving factor in these deliberations, it s crucial to remember the easily forgotten truth that such performance is rendered useless if a player isn t out on the field. The unfortunate reality facing Mr. Cain is his frequent and oft-debilitating injury woes, especially soft tissue injuries. It remains a very troubling aspect to the Team, and one that has truly lead to deep regret and inefficient management in past instances. Over the past three seasons with the Royals, of a possible 486 games, Cain played in only 309, missing an astounding 177 games due to multiple stints on the DL due to various injuries to the body and groin 52. In April of 2012 Cain was placed on the 15-Day DL for a strained left groin. After being sent to the minors for a rehab assignment and being recalled, he was sent back down to the minors for another rehab assignment before being transferred back to the 60-Day DL again with a strained left groin 53. He was removed from the DL in July and finished the season with only 61 games played 54. In 2013, Cain again started the season with the major league club, missing single games sporadically, totaling 16 before August 10 th when he was placed on the 15-Day DL with a strained left oblique, missing 27 straight games 55. He was recalled from the DL on September 4 th, and finished the season with 115 games played and under 400 at bats 56. In Supra n Supra n. 5 and n Supra n Supra n. 5 and n Supra n. 5 and n Supra n. 5 and n. 24 8

11 the trend of injuries to soft tissue continued as Cain was placed on the 15-Day DL on April 17 th with a strained left groin once again 57. Cain was sent to the minors for a rehab assignment, and returned to the Royals on May 5 th after missing 17 games from the groin injury (18 total including a single game absence on April 9 th ) 58. Cain missed 11 more games throughout the 2014 season with various ailments, continuing his worrisome pattern of injury 59. VII. Recent Performance of the Club The 2014 Royals were looking to follow up a strong 2013 season where they reached 80 or more wins for the first time since Heading into the all star break, the Royals were hovering just over.500 at After the break, from July 22nd to August 27 th, the Royals went on a remarkable run of 24-8, finishing the second half going for a season record of The Team finished the regular season 4 th in the AL in ERA at 3.51 and tied for the AL lead in saves 63. Though they finished the season with the 9 th most errors in all of baseball, and 14 th in runs scored 64, they clinched the a wild card spot and squeezed out a bottom 12 th nail biter against the second wild card team Oakland A s, advancing to the ALDS in exciting fashion (9-8 victory) 65. Behind dominant pitching, the Royals swept the Angels in 3 games to advance to the ALCS, allowing just 6 earned runs in 31 innings over the three game series 66. Again, powered by strong pitching, 12 earned runs in 37 innings over four games, the Royals swept the Orioles and remained undefeated in the postseason 67. For the first time since 1985 the Royals were 57 Supra Supra n. 5 and n Supra n Royals Team Website, 61 MLB Official 2014 Schedule, 62 Supra n ESPN MLB Team Stats, 64 Supra n MLB Official Playoff Schedule/Box Scores, 66 Supra n Supra n. 65 9

12 playing in the World Series after going 8-0 thus far in the postseason 68. Their opponent, the San Francisco Giants, who won the World Series in 2010 and 2012, were coming into the series riding an extremely hot pitching staff, to the tune of a 2.18 ERA through their 10 postseason games 69. The Royals did win games 2, 3, and 6, but fell short after a grindout 3-2 loss in game They showed tremendous strides and look to continue building success off of their strong pitching and defense. The Royals were 25th in Major League Baseball in attendance in 2014, averaging only 24,154 fans a game 71. VIII. Conclusion The Royals find Lorenzo Cain to be a solid performer and a good fit the Team, and would like for his contributions to continue in 2015 for the soon-to-be 29 year old outfielder. Naturally, compensation in the sport of baseball is based largely on both past performance as well as future projected success. A formula combining the two remains the determining factor for the Team, and with Mr. Cain s vast injury history, and fragile 2014 statistics given the inevitable regression in Batting Average on Balls in Play, the Royals insist on compensating Mr. Cain at a fair value, one below the midpoint of $ Through extensive comparison with players of similar skill set, age, service time, and statistics, the offered salary of $2.1 million is both logically and historically fair. The Royals look forward to Cain building on last season and attempting to remain healthy, and respectfully request the Arbitration Panel to agree with this assertion and find that the Club's offer of $2.1 million be fair compensation for Lorenzo Cain in Supra n Supra n Supra n Supra n