2014 NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION

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1 2014 NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION Jeff Samardzija v. Chicago Cubs Submission on Behalf of Jeff Samardzija Midpoint: $4,900,000 Submission by Team 17

2 Table of Contents I. Introduction and Request for Hearing....3 II. Quality of Contribution: Durability and Dependability....4 III. Comparable Players....5 a. Mike Pelfrey...5 b. Justin Masterson.6 c. Homer Bailey..7 IV. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions: Consistent Workhorse-Like Production V. Past Salary...9 VI. Existence of Injuries or Mental Defects: Lack of Injury History VII. Recent Performance of Club: Losing in Spite of Mr. Samardzija s Pitching 10 VIII. Summary and Conclusion..11 List of Sources MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Basic Agreement, Art. VI(E)(10)(a) (b) Baseball-Reference, Sports Reference, LLC, Chicago Tribune. FanGraphs, FanGraphs.com, New York Daily News, New York Daily News. New York Daily News, The Plain Dealer. Cleveland.com, ESPN, ESPN: The Worldwide Leader in Sports, espn.go.com. 2

3 I. Introduction and Request for Hearing This brief discusses and analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of right-handed pitcher Jeff Samardzija ( Mr. Samardzija ) in negotiating his 2014 contract with the Chicago Cubs ( the Club or the Cubs ). The Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ) requires consideration of the following criteria where determining a player s award: (1) the quality of the Player s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal); (2) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player; (3) the length and consistency of his career contribution; (4) the record of the Player s past compensation; (5) comparative baseball salaries; and (6) the recent performance record of the Club, including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance. 1 Mr. Samardzija has reached years of MLB service, making him eligible for his second year of arbitration. Mr. Samardzija is an integral part of the Cubs pitching rotation and is worth his $5.1 million request. Not only is he the Cubs ace, but he leads the team in nearly every relevant pitching statistical category. $5.1 million offers a fair and amicable representation of Mr. Samardzija s value to the club for the upcoming 2014 season. Therefore, Mr. Samardzija respectfully requests that this panel find that he is entitled to a $5.1 million 2014 salary arbitration award. 1 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Basic Agreement, Art. VI(E)(10)(a) (b) 3

4 II. Quality of Contribution: Durability and Dependability Year Games Wins Losses Hits Runs Strikeouts ERA FIP WAR Innings Pitched Jeff Samardzija is a consistent and durable ace that leads the Cubs pitching unit. In 2013, Mr. Samardzija s platform season, the right handed pitcher continued to contribute significantly to the Cubs pitching rotation. He led the Cubs with 33 starts, innings pitched, and 914 batters faced. 2 Additionally, Mr. Samardzija boasted a 4.34 ERA, while pitching 2 complete games. In his 8-13 season, Mr. Samardzija notably pitched his first shutout on May 27, 2013 against the cross town rival Chicago White Sox. 3 While allowing only 210 hits, 109 runs, and 103 earned runs, Mr. Samardzija earned 214 strikeouts, good for most strikeouts per 9 innings for the Cubs at Indeed, the Cubs significantly depended on Mr. Samardzija for his pitching services. Although Mr. Samardzija s 4.34 ERA appears high, when considering his field independent pitching ( FIP ), a measure used to compare a pitcher s ERA as if he pitched behind an average defense, 5 Samardzija boasted a 3.77 FIP. 6 Such a number suggests that Samardzija is an above average pitcher with a subprime defense, as his ERA would have been reduced by.54 with an average defense. Indeed, his wins above replacement ( WAR ), a measure that gauges the player s importance as if he had to be replaced after an injury, 7 stands above average at Jeff Samardzija Statisics and History, Baseball Reference. 3 Cubs Get Complete Game in 7-0 Rout of Sox, Fred Mitchell, Chicago Tribune _1_white-sox-chris-sale-anthony-rizzo 4 Jeff Samardzija Statisics and History, Baseball Reference. 5 FIP Fangraphs Sabermetrics Library, FanGraphs. 6 Jeff Samardzija Statistics Pitching, FanGraphs. 7 WAR Fangraphs Sabermetrics Library, FanGraphs. 4

5 Additionally, Mr. Samardzija is above the league average with ground ball percentages at 48.2%. 9 These numbers indicate that Mr. Samardzija is an above average pitcher on a struggling team. Without Mr. Samardzija s pitching, there is no telling how much more the Cubs would have struggled. Mr. Samardzija s $5.1 million request, based on his importance to the Cubs, is both appropriate and warranted. III. Comparable Players In order to properly evaluate Mr. Samardzija s value to the Cubs, it is helpful to compare his platform season with the platform seasons of Mike Pelfrey ( Pelfrey ), Justin Masterson ( Masterson ), and Homer Bailey ( Bailey ) when these players were first arbitration eligible. A. Mike Pelfrey Player Games Wins Losses Hits Runs Strikeouts ERA FIP WAR Innings Pitched Samard Pelfrey 10 - (2011) $5.3 M In 2011, Mike Pelfrey s platform season, the New York Mets and Pelfrey reached an agreement to pay the right-handed starting pitcher $5.675 million. 11 In that season, Pelfrey started 33 games, and otherwise contributed weaker statistics than Mr. Samardzija. Pelfrey pitched in less innings (193.2 to Samardzija s 213.2), won less games (7 to Samardzija s 8), had a higher ERA (4.74 to Samardzija s 4.36), and gave up more hits (220 to Samardzija s 210) and Jeff Samardzija Statistics Pitching, FanGraphs NY Mets Avoid Arbitration, Sign Mike Palfrey, Andres Torres, Manny Acosta, and Ramon Ramirez, Payroll Should Shrink to About $90 Million in 2012, Andy Martino, New York Daily News. 5

6 runs (111 to Samardzija s 110). 12 Most importantly, Mr. Samardzija crushed Pelfrey in terms of strikeouts, 214 to 105, respectively. 13 Nor did Pelfrey outplay Mr. Samardzija in terms of FIP, where the latter crushed the former, 4.47 to Furthermore, Pelfrey was easily replaceable with an abysmal 0.6 WAR, 15 whereas Mr. Samardzija proved his value with a 2.8 WAR. 16 Indeed, Mr. Samardzija is a superior pitcher in nearly every relevant metric. While Pelfrey was ranked second in the Mets pitching lineup, 17 Mr. Samardzija is the Cubs ace. Notwithstanding, Pelfrey garnered a salary of $5.675 million, well above Mr. Samardzija s $5.1 million request. Given Mr. Samardzija s superior performance in each player s platform season, and using Pelfrey s salary as a precedent, Mr. Samardzija s $5.1 million is an appropriate valuation of his anticipated 2014 services. B. Justin Masterson Player Games Wins Losses Hits Runs Strikeouts ERA FIP WAR Innings Pitched Samard Masters. 18 (2011) $5.3 M In 2012, Justin Masterson s platform season, the Cleveland Indians and Masterson reached an agreement to pay the right-handed pitcher $5.675 million. 19 In that season, Masterson 12 Jeff Samardzija Statistics and History, Baseball Reference Jeff Samardzija Statistics Pitching, FanGraphs Jeff Samardzija Statistics Pitching, FanGraphs New York Mets Batting, Pitching, and Fielding Statistics, Baseball Reference Justin Masterson Statistics Pitching, FanGraph Cleveland Indians Avoid Arbitration With Pitchers Chris Perez and Justin Masterson, The Plain Dealer. 6

7 managed to outpace Mr. Samardzija only in games played (34 to Samardzija s 33). 20 Otherwise, Mr. Samardzija outperformed the Indian s ace in nearly every category. Samardzija outpitched Masterson in terms of innings (206.1 to Samardzija s 213.2), hits (212 to Samardzija s 210), runs (122 to Samardzija s 110), complete games pitched (1 to Samardzija s 2), and shutouts (0 to Samardzija s 1). 21 Most importantly, Mr. Samardzija had a lower ERA when compared to Masterson, 4.36 to Additionally, Mr. Samardzija shattered Masterson in terms of strikeouts, 214 to 159, and in strikeouts per nine innings, 9.01 to Nor did Masterson produce a better FIP, as Mr. Samardzija proves his superior value with a 3.75 FIP compared to Masterson s Additionally, Mr. Samardzija is less replaceable, as he boasts a 2.8 WAR compared to Masterson s Indeed, Mr. Samardzija is a superior pitcher and more important to his respective team. Notwithstanding, Masterson received a $5.675 salary in his arbitration year, greater than to Mr. Samardzija s $5.1 million request. Because Mr. Samardzija is a more durable pitcher, and using Masterson s salary as a precedent, Mr. Samardzija s $5.1 million request is warranted given his anticipated 2014 services. C. Homer Bailey Player Games Wins Losses Hits Runs Strikeouts ERA FIP WAR Innings Pitched Samard Bailey 25 - (2012) $5.3 M Justin Masterson, Statistics and History, Baseball Reference Justin Masterson Statistics Pitching, FanGraph Andrew Bailey, Statistics and History, Baseball Reference. 7

8 In 2012, Bailey s platform season, arbitrators awarded the right-handed Cincinnati Reds pitcher $5,300,000. Durability is an important, and valuable attribute for a young pitcher. Recently, Homer Bailey s arbitration award reflected this valuable metric. Bailey, like Mr. Samardzija, started 33 games in his platform season (2012). Both pitchers are workhorses, each having pitched more than 200 innings during their platform seasons; however, Mr. Samardzija pitched more innings than Bailey (213.2 to 208). Furthermore, in their respective seasons prior to their platform seasons, Mr. Samardzija started more games (28 to 22) and pitched more innings (174.2 to 132), further accentuating Mr. Samardzija as the more durable pitcher. Digging beneath the surface of standard metrics enhances Mr. Samardzija s statistical superiority over Bailey. Although Bailey boasted a lower ERA than Samardzija (3.68 to 4.34), a comparison of their FIPs indicates that Mr. Samardzija s ERA would have been lower than Bailey s, had the two pitchers been supported by average fielding (Samardzija: 3.77; Bailey: 3.97). Thus, a comparison of the two players FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests that Mr. Samardzija s ERA was inflated due to below average fielding by the Cubs, and indicates that Mr. Samardzija s actual quality of pitching was superior to Bailey s. As the ace of the Cubs rotation, Mr. Samardzija established himself as a power pitcher with the ability to strike out batters. Mr. Samardzija struck out far more batters than Bailey (214 to 168) and allowed fewer home runs (25 to 26). In light of Mr. Samardzija s durability advantage over Bailey, his strikeout advantage, and the fact that Mr. Samardzija s ERA should have been lower than Bailey s if each were supported with average fielding (FIP), Mr. Samardzija deserves a similar or better arbitration award as Bailey. Therefore, $5,100,00 ($200,00 less than what Bailey received) represents a fair compensation award for the young pitcher. 8

9 IV. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions: Consistent Workhorse-Like Production Mr. Samardzija was drafted in 2006, and played throughout the Cubs farm system until he was called up in He began his major league career as a relief pitcher, having failed to establish consistency in his first few seasons; however, in 2011, Mr. Samardzija had a breakout season, pitching in 75 games for a 2.97 ERA. In 2011, he established his powerful ability to strike out batters, achieving a SO/9 of 8.9, a number that would only increase in the following two seasons. After his tremendous 2011 performance, the Cubs promoted Mr. Samardzija to the starting rotation, where he has continued to shine ever since. V. Past Salary Mr. Samardzija s salary has consistently reflected his evolving role on the Cubs. In his first three seasons, he received a salary of $2 million. In 2010, his salary was increased to $3 million. In 2011, the right handed starter made $3.3 million. For his 2012 and 2013 services, Mr. Samardzija made $2.64 million. Indeed, Mr. Samardzija is severely underpaid for his role as the Cubs ace. Therefore, Mr. Samardzija s $5.1 million request is an appropriate increase that properly values his expected contribution to the Cubs 2014 season. VI. Existence of Injuries or Mental Defects: Lack of Injury History Throughout his career, Mr. Samardzija s physical dependability has remained one of his most important attributes and contributions to the Cubs organization. Since moving into the starting rotation in 2012, Samardzija has led the Cubs in games started and innings pitched. Samardzija is extremely durable, having no injury history throughout his career. His ability to produce consistently as not only a relief pitcher, but as a starting pitcher, and ultimately, as the 9

10 ace of the Cubs staff, indicates mental strength and ability to contribute in a multitude of situations. VII. Recent Performance of Club: Losing in Spite of Mr. Samardzija s Pitching The cubs finished their 2013 campaign, during which Mr. Samardzija started opening day, finishing in last place in their division, tied for the 4 th worst record in the majors, and second worst record in the National League. 26 Although the team was 30 games under.500, the 2013 season was actually an improvement over 2012, during which the Cubs finished with merely 61 wins. Since entering the Cubs starting pitching rotation, Mr. Samardzija has become one of the only bright spots for the Cubs organization, accounting for 13% of the team s total wins over the past two seasons. 27 Considering Mr. Samardzija s inflated ERA compared to FIP, it appears that the Cubs poor performance has been in spite of, rather than because of Mr. Samardzija s pitching on the ball club. Attendance to Cubs games decreased by an average of 2,964 fans per game in Without Mr. Samardzija at the top of the staff, it is likely that the team s performance will drop, and accordingly, lead to reduced ticket sales in Mr. Samardzija s value lies not only in his pitching ability, but in his ability to attract fans to attend ball games, knowing they will have the opportunity to watch the team s best pitcher take the mound. Accordingly, $5,100,000 represents fair compensation for Mr. Samardzija in the coming season MLB Standings, ESPN Justin Masterson, Statistics and History, Baseball Reference MLB Fan Attendance, ESPN. 10

11 VIII. Summary and Conclusion In his time spent with the Cubs, Mr. Samardzija has shown he has the potential and skills to become a remarkable player, and the reliability and durability to be a workhorse pitcher at the top of the pitching rotation for years to come. Injuries are of no concern for Mr. Samardzija. Mr. Samardzija s statistical performance does not tell his entire story; had the Cubs supported him with better fielding and batting, Mr. Samardzija would have put forth even better statistics during his platform year, and led the team to more wins. In light of the Cubs recent abysmal performance as a ball club, and the recent reduction in ticket sales, Mr. Samardzija remains one of the club s few bright spots to attract fans to ball games. As the ace of the staff, Mr. Samardzija deserves compensation as such. Thus, based on the aforementioned factors and considerations, Mr. Samardzija deserves a salary of $5,100,

2014 National Baseball Arbitration Competition

2014 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Jeff Samardzija v. Chicago Cubs Submission on Behalf of Jeff Samardzija Midpoint: $4.9 million Submission by: Team 18 i Table of Contents I. Introduction