2012 Hockey Arbitration Competition of Canada

Transcription

1 2012 Hockey Arbitration Competition of Canada Kyle Quincey vs. The Detroit Red Wings Submission on Behalf of The Detroit Red Wings Midpoint: $3.775 Million Submission by: Team Number 1

2 Table of Contents: I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision 1 II. Quality of the Players Contributions During Past Season 1 III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions 2 IV. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects 3 V. Comparative Player Salaries 4 VI. Recent Performance of the Club 8 VII. Public Relations Concerns 9 VIII. Past Compensation 10 IX. Conclusion 10

3 I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision This brief analyzes the contributions of defenseman Kyle Quincey for the purposes of an arbitration hearing governed by the National Hockey League Collective Bargaining Agreement. Criteria for analysis include: quality of contribution to the club during the past season, career contributions, recent club performance, existence of physical or mental defects, comparable hockey salaries, public relations concerns and past compensation. Based on these criteria, Kyle Quincey is not entitled to a salary equal to the $3.775 million midpoint and the Detroit Red Wings respectfully submit an offer of $3.25 million. II. Quality of the Player s Contributions During Past Season On February 21 st 2012, at the NHL Trade deadline, the Detroit Red Wings mortgaged their future in the hopes of acquiring a top tier defenseman for a playoff run. In a three-team trade involving Colorado and Tampa Bay, Detroit acquired Kyle Quincey, trading away a 2012 first round draft pick and prospect Sebastian Piche to do so. 1 At the time of the trade, Quincey had been enjoying a successful season with the Colorado Avalanche, tallying 5 goals and 18 assists in 54 games, good for.43 points per game. 2 That being said, Quincey was listed as a healthy scratch for the Avalanche in 4 games, as per coach Joe Sacco s decision Statistical Breakdown Per Team Team GP G A Pts +/- PIM PPG Shots PtsPG Colorado Detroit In the ensuing 18 games of the regular season with the Detroit Red Wings, Quincey failed to live up to expectations, totaling only 3 points in 18 games, and his PPG fell by over 250%, to 1 ESPN: 2 The Hockey News, Player News: 3 Ibid. 1

4 .17 points per game. 4 In his time with the Red Wings, Kyle Quincey had a plus/minus of 0, ranking fourth last on the team. On the year, Quincey's plus/minus was Despite the fact that Quincey did not live up to expectations during the regular season, the Red Wings finished 5 th in the West, and qualified for the postseason. 6 However, they were upset in five games by the Nashville Predators. Of particular note is the fact that Quincey's ice time fell by over five minutes per game from his regular seasons average of 21:51 to 16:29 in the series. This was a clear sign of the Red Wings lack of confidence in the defenseman. Equally disappointing was Quincey's -2 plus-minus during the Nashville series. III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions While Kyle Quincey has enjoyed some success at the NHL level, his career has been marked by inconsistent play from year to year. Kyle Quincey was drafted by the Detroit Red Wings in the fourth round of the 2003 NHL Entry Draft (132) overall, but did not have significant NHL experience until the latter portion of the season, playing in 6 games, and registering one point. 7 Due to injuries to the defensive unit at the time, Quincey was granted the opportunity to play in 13 playoff games, but did not record a single point. 8 The Red Wings would go on to win the Stanley Cup that year, but Quincey was not listed as a winner, as he failed to play in the required number of regular season games to qualify. 9 After breaking his hand in the opening weeks of the 2007 season, Quincey spent the vast majority of his campaign in the AHL, playing for the Grand Rapids Gryphons. He played six games with the Red Wings, recording zero points, and a -3 plus/minus rating. The 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. 6 NHL Final Standings : 7 Supra note 2. 8 Ibid. 9 Kyle Quincey downplays not getting Stanley Cup ring from Red Wings 2

5 following season, Quincey failed to make the Red Wings NHL roster, and he was claimed off waivers by the LA Kings, where he enjoyed his most successful year in the NHL to date, scoring 38 points in 72 games. 10 Quincey was traded to the Colorado Avalanche the following year. 11 In Quincey record 29 points, in a season where Colorado made the playoffs, losing in the first round. In , Quincey struggled to start the season, recording only 1 point and a -5 rating in 21 games, before injuries ended his season. Kyle Quincey Career NHL Statistics (Regular Season) Year Team GP G A Pts +/- PIM Shots PtsPG Detroit Colorado Colorado Colorado Los Angeles Detroit Detroit Detroit /00 As the table suggests, the player at hand has struggled with inconsistent play from year to year and team to team, making him a significant gamble for the Red Wings organization. For this reason, the player at hand does not warrant a midpoint salary of million. IV. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects Compounding his inconsistent play is the fact that Kyle Quincey has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. In what was expected to be his first full year with the Detroit Red Wings in the season, Quincey broke his hand and was sidelined indefinitely before returning to play in the AHL. 12 During the season, he suffered a concussion, 10 Supra note TSN: 12 Supra note 2. 3

6 missing 8 games, before missing the rest of the season (53 games) with a career threatening shoulder dislocation. 13 Quincey s injury concerns, combined with his inconsistent play, justify a decrease in his value below the $3.775 midpoint. V. Comparative Player Salaries Kyle Quincey s value in today s NHL is best determined by comparison to players of a similar style, description and with comparable career numbers. These comparisons demonstrate that Kyle Quincey s value is below the $3.775 million midpoint. The panel should decide in favour of the Detroit Red Wings. a. Mark Fayne ($1.3 million in 2012) Comparing Kyle Quincey to Mark Fayne who was also arbitration eligible in 2012 demonstrates that Kyle Quincey has been overvalued at a midpoint of $3.775 million per year. Fayne agreed to a two-year contract valued at $2.6 million, averaging $1.3 million per year. 14 Though Quincey has more NHL experience, Fayne s performance in the first two years of his NHL career project him as a defenceman on the same trajectory as Quincey in terms of overall statistical contributions to his team. Quincey has established himself as a mid 20-point scorer while Fayne s career high in points is 17, set this past season. 15 Quincey averaged almost 22 minutes in ice time per game, with just over 4 minutes of that time coming on the power play and penalty kill. Fayne averaged over 20 minutes per game with approximately 3 minutes of that time occurring on the power play and penalty kill. The players compare favourably in blocked shots and plus-minus. 13 Supra note Capgeek.com: 15 NHL.com: 4

7 Fayne has yet to miss significant time due to injury and appeared in all 82 games for the Devils in , his platform season. Quincey lost 61 games to injury in and has never played a full 82 game season. Fayne was as a key contributor to the Devils 2012 Stanley Cup Finals appearance, helping the Devils advance past the Panthers, Flyers and Conference-champion Rangers on their way to a 6 game defeat to the Los Angeles Kings in the finals. His ice time kept pace with his regular season average and he logged significant time on the penalty kill. He appeared in all 24 of the Devils playoff games, finishing with 3 points and a plus 5 rating. Conversely, Quincey has appeared in a total of 24 playoff games in his entire career spanning 3 appearances. He has recorded a total of 2 points with a 0 plus-minus rating in those appearances. In the 2012 playoffs, Quincey s ice time declined by 5 minutes per game from his regular season average. He has never advanced passed the second round. At a midpoint of $3.775 million, Quincey received a $650,000 raise from his previous salary of $3.125 million per year. Fayne received a $750,000 raise from his league minimum salary in 2011 to $1.3 million per year. Though Quincey possesses more overall NHL experience and a reputation for a mid-20 point scorer, his playoff production is virtually non-existent. Fayne has established himself as a defensively reliable player, capable of playing in any situation with offensive upside. He contributed significantly to the Devils Stanley Cup Finals run. Though Fayne does not have the same amount of regular season experience, Quincey is not worth almost $2.5 million more than Fayne. The comparison of these two players establishes that Quincey s midpoint salary of $3.775 million is too high. 5

8 b. Josh Gorges ($2.5 million in 2011) Josh Gorges is another comparable player to Kyle Quincey, a comparison that also demonstrates that Quincey should earn less than the midpoint of $3.775 million. However, it needs to be understood that while the two are both defenceman, they play very different styles. Quincey has earned a reputation as a mid-tier defenseman with offensive ability. Gorges on the other hand, is a top-pairing defenseman with less offensive upside but who has earned the status of a shut down defenseman. As such, he plays many minutes against the opposition s top offensive players. Despite this, at the end of the 2011 season, he was a career plus 12 compared to Quincey s career plus-minus rating of minus Gorges platform season was cut down due to injury and in this respect, he has a similar injury history as Quincey though he played in over 80 regular season games in the two years prior. Gorges average season point output is lower than Quincey s and their ice time compares favourably. Gorges has averaged well over 3 minutes per game on the penalty kill in the three seasons leading up to his arbitration eligibility in 2011 as well as some time on the power play. Gorges has 46 games of playoff experience and advanced to the Conference Finals with the Canadiens in 2010, averaging almost 23 minutes of ice time per game as well as over 4 minutes of penalty kill time. Quincey has yet to achieve similar playoff success. The performance of Gorges in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, possibly the most grueling test of athletic endurance, establishes his value as a premier shut down defenseman while Quincey s ice time dropped considerably in his latest playoff appearance. The importance of shut down defenseman is paramount in the NHL. Thus, Gorges reputation as such is not cause to value him comparatively less to a more offensively minded 16 NHL.com: 6

9 defenseman such as Quincey. Gorge received a raise of 1.2 million from his salary to a midpoint of 2.5 million for the season. 17 Comparatively, Quincey s raise was significantly less. This has more to do with the player s respective salary levels prior to arbitration as Gorges earned a full $2 million less as a midpoint than Quincey in his prearbitration contract. After their respective awards, Quincey continues to earn $1.275 million more per year than Gorges. This comparison establishes that Quincey is overvalued at a midpoint of $3.775 million. c. Ian White ($2.99 million in 2010) Ian White is a slightly older comparison but may be the most similar to Quincey of all arbitration eligible defenseman in the past few years. They are similar players in their style, statistical achievements, experience and career projection. Like Quincey, White is a mid-tier defenseman, with puck moving ability and offensive upside. White earned $2.99 million coming out of arbitration and this comparison further establishes that Quincey should earn less than the midpoint of $3.775 million. 18 White s platform season saw him amass 38 points including 13 goals, both career highs. 19 He added a plus-8 rating while playing just under 23 minutes per game, including almost 4 minutes per game on the power play and penalty kill. In the seasons prior to this platform, he scored 26, 21 and 26 points respectively. These numbers, including White s career high of 38 points, compare favourably to Quincey, who has proven the ability to consistently score around 25 points per season and has a career high of 38 points as well. A higher percentage of White s points are goals and he has scored over 10 goals in a season twice. Conversely, Quincey s career high in goals is Capgeek.com: 18 Capgeek.com: 19 NHL.com: 7

10 White has proven to be physically durable as well. He has never played less than 71 games and even managed to play one game over a full season, appearing in 83 games in his platform season. He entered arbitration never having played in a playoff game. White earned $2.99 million in Given that this is an older comparison, some basic adjustments might be useful. The salary cap in , the season in which White earned $2.99 million, was $59.4 million. 20 For the season, the season in which Quincy will earn $3.775 million, the cap is set at $70.2 million, a difference of about 15% from levels. 21 Applying a 15% increase to White s salary would add almost $500,000, bringing his earnings to $3.45 million. This is a rudimentary attempt to speculate on White s salary based on a current salary cap level. A 15% increase to White s salary to align it with current cap levels is useful for comparative purposes. Even with this increase, White is earning $325,000 less than Quincey despite having similar if not better statistics, a better plus minus, more games played at the time of arbitration (323 versus 257) and almost identical ice time. This comparison with Ian White proves that Kyle Quincey should earn less than the $3.775 million he was awarded at arbitration. VI. Recent Performance of the Club An additional useful method in evaluating Kyle Quincey's effectiveness is through the success of the teams on which Quincey has played. Quincey s platform year was split between the Colorado Avalanche and the Detroit Red Wings. On February 21 st, 2012, the date on which Quincey was traded to the Red Wings, the Wings sat atop both the Western Conference and the NHL standings with 84 points and a record of They also ranked first in CBC's NHL 20 TSN.ca: 21 Sportsnet.ca: 22 Hockey Reference 8

11 "power rankings." 23 In the 21 games that ensued, Detroit went , slipping from 1 st to 5 th in the Western Conference.. Quincey played in 18 these games, with the Red Wings winning only 5. This trend carried into the post-season, where the Red Wings were easily defeated by the Nashville Predators and lost the best of seven series in five games. Taking the playoffs into account, the Detroit Red Wings 2012 record with Kyle Quincey in the lineup is Quincey s arrival in Detroit did not lead to success for the franchise in the 2012 year, but rather, had the opposite effect. In his two and a half seasons in Colorado, the team appeared in the playoffs once, losing in the first round. Quincey was used as a mid-tier defenceman, occupying a spot behind veterans Adam Foots, Scott Hannan and John-Michael Liles. In Detroit, Quincey s role was similar as he played behind Nicholas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall and Brad Stuart. He has been a reliable defenseman wherever he has played but has not solidified himself as anything more than a midechelon player. Including his poor regular season record with Detroit in , Quincey has only once finished a season with a winning percentage over VII. Public Relations Concerns Kyle Quincey has also been criticized publicly in the media for demeaning comments about the Avalanche organization. In an interview following the trade to the Red Wings, Quincey stated: Everyone is ready to get shipped out any day there s a lot of guys, their bags are packed beside the door I know I had a big smile on my face, and all the guys were jealous. 25 Although the Detroit Red Wings organization appreciates that Quincey was happy to be a Red 23 CBC Sports: 24 NHL.com/ice/standings 25 Bleacher Report: 9

12 Wing, comments such as these can lead to future negative publicity for the Red Wings organization. He has also been suspended from NHL play for a vicious elbow on Florida s Tomas Kopecky. 26 It is these types of hits that are not indicative of Red Wing hockey, and can lead to further negative publicity for the organization. VIII. Past Compensation Quincey is coming off a year where he earned 3.25 million, despite only putting up 3 points in the final 18 games of the season. He earned $3 million the previous season. 27 IX. Conclusion Kyle Quincey has not yet materialized into the NHL defenseman many thought he would become. He is by no means an inferior player, proving himself defensively reliable in many situations and showing the ability to be able to contribute offensively. In comparison to players of similar style, production and career trajectory, Quincey is overvalued at a $3.775 million midpoint. Quincey has not outperformed Fayne or Gorges significantly enough to justify his much greater midpoint. Statistically, White has enjoyed greater career success and was coming off a career season in his arbitration eligible year but was awarded significantly less than Quincey. Quincey s lack of regular seasons success on the Kings, Avalanche and Red Wings and his poor playoff performance in two post-season appearances also lower his value. These considerations place Quincey s value below the $3.775 million midpoint. We ask the arbitration panel to find for the Detroit Red Wings and award Kyle Quincey $3.25 million. 26 NHL.com, News: 27 Capgeek.com: 10