2013 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Tulane University Law School

Transcription

1 2013 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Tulane University Law School Dexter Fowler v. Colorado Rockies Submitted on Behalf of the Colorado Rockies Midpoint: $4.3 million By: Team 24 1

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODCUTION AND REQUEST FOR AWARD IN FAVOR OF CLUB 3 II. FOWLER S CAREER CONTRIBUTIONS TO ROCKIES...3 a. Performance 4 b. Platform Season Performance 6 III. FOWLER S PAST COMPENSATION FROM ROCKIES...6 IV. FOWLER COMPARED TO SIMILARLY SITUATED PLAYERS.7 a. Melky Cabrera...7 b. Angel Pagan...8 c. Shane Victorino.9 d. Nyjer Morgan 10 e. Marlon Byrd..11 f. Rajai Davis...11 g. Ryan Ludwick..12 V. CONCLUSION..12 2

3 I. INTRODUCTION AND REQUEST FOR AWARD IN FAVOR OF CLUB Pursuant to Article VI. Sec. E. of the Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ) 1, the Colorado Rockies ( Rockies or Club ) respectfully submit this brief in support of the Club s position regarding the salary arbitration against Dexter Fowler. The sole issue to be determined is the amount of Fowler s 2013 MLB Player Contract with the Rockies. Evidence herein suggests that Fowler s 2013 salary should be $4 million, as opposed to the $4.6 million sought by Fowler. Although Fowler s 2013 salary could be valued near the $4.3 million midpoint, this Panel must find in the Club s favor because Fowler s 2013 value does not exceed the midpoint. Therefore, the Rockies respectfully request this Panel to find in favor of the Club and award Fowler a salary in the amount of $4 million for II. FOWLER S CAREER CONTRIBUTIONS TO ROCKIES Since becoming a member of the Rockies active roster in September , Fowler s contributions to the Club have been inconsistent. The Rockies were eager to feature Fowler as their everyday CF, however his production at the plate through his first 3 full seasons has been satisfactory. 3 Fowler s contributions have been overshadowed by diminished production, strikeouts 4 ( SO ), and slumps, including demotions to the Club s minor league affiliate 5. Furthermore, Fowler has continued to struggle as a CF, ranking last or second to last in NL fielding percentage among CF s in 3 of 4 seasons with the Rockies. 6 Overall, Fowler has not yet MLB Basic Agreement, see Art VI, Sec E, Part 10(a-b) 2 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com, see /.358/.416 ( AVG) (Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference) SO% (Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference) 5 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference; Hardball Talk by NBC Sports, See (scheduled demotion but injured so sent to DL) 6 MLB Player Fielding Stats on ESPN.com, see 3

4 developed into the five-tool player that many expected him to become. 7 Despite the Club s recognition of Fowler s talent, Fowler s inconsistent performance is of major concern. a. Performance Fowler s performance as the Rockies leadoff hitter is crucial to the team s ability to produce runs and ultimately win games. Fowler s career BA from is admirable; however his overall contribution to the Rockies during that time period has been minimized for several reasons, including: Fowler s high SO%, minimal stolen bases ( SB ), and poor away game performance. Fowler s career batting statistics through 2012 (548 GP) include: Batting () 8 H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS BB SO Batting (Season AVG ) 9 H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS BB SO Throughout Fowler s career he has struck-out in 22.5% of his at-bats 10, ranking among the 8- highest NL CF s in terms of SO%. 11 Moreover, where many other CF s with a high SO% are power hitters 12, Fowler is primarily a leadoff hitter who must reach base safely. Fowler has patience at the plate, however his.54 BB/SO 13 ratio means that he strikes out nearly twice as many times as he walks. This reduces Fowler s OBP and negatively affects run production. Additionally, Fowler registered 27 SB s in 2009 but has not stolen more than 13 bases in a season since Because of this decline, Fowler appeared at the top of the lineup in only 65 7 Cleveland Sweet Spotting Blog, see 8 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 9 Table excludes 2008 because Fowler appeared in only 13 G in 2008, see Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball- Reference.com 10 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 11 MLB.com Sortable Player Stats, see MLB.com/stats/sortable 12 Matt Kemp, Curtis Granderson, Andrew McCutchen. See MLB.com sorted by CF sorted by SO 13 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 14 Id. 4

5 games in Fowler has been touted as a player with tremendous base-stealing potential, 16 however the Club is concerned that Fowler s base-running woes will lower his overall run production and lead to frequent demotions to the bottom of the lineup. Also, an alarming trend is Fowler s drastic drop in performance away from Coors Field, or the Coors Effect. 17 Excluding the 2008 season 18, Fowler s average home/away batting splits: HOME 19 H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS BB SO AWAY 20 H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS BB SO Fowler s batting statistics, including BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS, are distorted because of Fowler s exceptionally high performance at home. An accurate assessment of Fowler s career must be viewed in the context of the Coors Effect 21 phenomenon. The high altitude stadium creates a low humidity environment where baseballs travel 9% farther than they normally do. 22 The Rockies have led the NL in home BA in 19 of the past 20 seasons, with the average position player on the Rockies batting at Coors Field. Interestingly, Fowler hit below the Rockies home BA in both 2009 and Furthermore, the combination of the Coors Effect and the long distance 24 to the walls in Coors Field has helped Fowler record a bloated amount of extra-base hits. Fowler recorded an NL-high 14 triples in , but 11 of those 15 Fowler also appeared at 8 different batting positions, including 8 th and 9 th. See Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 16 The Denver Post, see 17 The Coors Effect on MLB Reports, see 18 Table excludes 2008 because Fowler appeared in only 13 G in 2008, see Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball- Reference.com 19 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 20 Id. 21 The Coors Effect on MLB Reports 22 Id Home BA of.294; 2011 Home BA of.245, see Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 24 Coors Field Historical Analysis, see 25 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 5

6 triples were hit in Coors Field where the thin air helps propel balls deep into the gaps in left/right-center. 26 To illustrate further, an understanding of the Coors Effect can be seen in Fowler s career OPS+, which accounts for ballpark dimensions and stadium conditions. Fowler s OPS+ is , which is the league average. An accurate assessment of Fowler s statistics in this context reveals that Fowler is an inconsistent player who has under-performed since b. Platform Season Performance Fowler s 2012 platform season home/away splits must also be considered: Home 28 H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS BB SO Away 29 H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS BB SO (19 th ) (25 th ) (20 th ) (24 th ) (14 th ) (7 th ) (19 th ) (17 th ) (10 th ) (10 th ) Fowler s performance away from Coors Field is unsatisfactory, and is of little value to the Rockies, who had a.358 win% on the road last season 30. Considering Fowler s poor away game performance, it is not surprising that his 2012 OPS+ is 117, which is slightly above-average. 31 Further amplifying his under-performance is Fowler s 2012 SO% of Fowler has shown flashes of extraordinary talent but his performance in 2012 should be largely viewed as inconsistent. The Rockies finished last in the NL West and have not made the playoffs since 09. III. FOWLER S PAST COMPENSATION FROM ROCKIES Fowler earned close to the league minimum salary 33 in each of his first full 3 seasons with the Rockies. Based on his major league service time ( ST ), Fowler earned super two 34 status 26 Id. 27 Id. 28 Id. 29 Id. See rank among MLB CF 30 MLB.com Sortable Team Stats 31 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 32 Id. 33 Id. 6

7 and gained early entry to salary arbitration following the 2011 season. Fowler and the Rockies avoided arbitration in 2012 when both parties agreed to a contract worth $2.35 million 35. IV. FOWLER COMPARED TO SIMILARLY SITAUTED PLAYERS Although Fowler is eligible for salary arbitration for the second time, he does have the distinction of previously being a super two. Fowler s ST is ; and an accurate comparison of players similarly situated to Fowler take account of both first and second-time arbitration eligible players, including players with prior super two status. The following comparisons illustrate that Fowler s 2013 salary should be below the $4.3million midpoint a. Melky Cabrera Fowler v. Melky Cabrera ($3.1M) 37 Fowler (3.168 ST) Cabrera (3.148 ST) Platform Season Cabrera (2009) This comparison to CF Melky Cabrera is appropriate because Cabrera was previously a super two; with an ST of following the 2009 season, Cabrera was arbitration eligible for the second-time in his career. He and the Yankees agreed to a 2010 salary of $3.1 million. Through four full seasons with the Yankees, Cabrera achieved career batting statistics similar to Fowler. Cabrera has a better career BA and more RBI, yet Fowler has scored more runs and achieved a higher OPS. However, Fowler s OPS is distorted because he plays half of his games at Coors Field. Cabrera s platform season is comparable to, and perhaps marginally less noteworthy than Fowler s 2012 season. Cabrera helped the Yankees win their 27 th World Series, MLB Basic Agreement, see Art VI, Sec E 35 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 36 Id. 37 Dexter Fowler & Melky Cabrera Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com 7

8 and he demonstrated versatility throughout the season. 38 Fowler arguably deserves a salary increase; but in light of Cabrera s career contributions and 2010 salary, and considering Fowler s distorted batting statistics, Fowler s 2013 value is not upwards of $1.2 million more than Cabrera s in Accordingly, Fowler s 2013 salary should be $4 million because his value to the Rockies is less than the $4.3 million midpoint. b. Angel Pagan Fowler v. Angel Pagan(1.45 M) 39 Fowler (3.168 ST) Pagan (3.144 ST) Platform Season Pagan (2009) Another previous super two, Angel Pagan filled in admirably for the injured Carlos Beltran in While appearing in 88 games Pagan displayed flashes of extraordinary talent, and his BA and SLG in 2009 were better than Fowler in Although Pagan s overall body of work is limited to 267 games, his career BA and average power numbers are strong and arguably similar to Fowler s. Additionally, because of Beltran s uncertain future health, Pagan was scheduled to be the opening day CF in The second-time arbitration eligible agreed to a 2010 contract worth $1.45 million. Giving deference to the nearly equal service time of both players, this comparison demonstrates that Fowler s vale to the Rockies in 2013 is worth far less than the $4.3 midpoint. Additionally, Pagan indeed performed admirably throughout the 2010 season, achieving an exceptional.290 BA, 168 hits, 69 RBI, and 37 SB s while playing 151 games. Following the 2010 season, and with an ST of 4.144, Pagan and the Mets agreed to a 2011 contract worth $ FP%, appeared as RF 48 times and LF 40 times. see Melky Cabrera Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 39 Dexter Fowler & Angel Pagan Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com 8

9 million. In that regard, through their respective platform seasons Pagan became the Mets everyday CF and performed similarly to Fowler. Pagan s 2011 contract value of $3.5 million further illustrates why Fowler s value to the 2013 Rockies is less than the $4.3 million midpoint. c. Shane Victorino Fowler v. Victorino ($3.125M) 40 Fowler (3.168 ST) Victorino (3.092 ST) Platform Season Victorino (2008) Through three full seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Shane Victorino s achievements were major reasons for the team s success and 2008 World Series conquest. comparisons indicate that Victorino has a slightly lower run production than Fowler, however Victorino was not the Phillies leadoff hitter and Fowler has the advantage of playing at Coors Field. In their platform seasons, Fowler had a slightly better average but Victorino was overall more productive. Also, Victorino s 36 SB s and a WAR of 4.2 in his platform season 41 is more impressive than Fowler s 12 SB s and WAR of 2.5 in his platform season. 42 Victorino s 2009 salary is based on two other important components, defense and post-season performance. During Victorino s platform season he had a.994 FP% and won a Gold Glove. 43 dependable and therefore less valuable, Fowler had a significantly lower FP% of Less Also, this Panel must consider Victorino s 2008 playoff heroics; Victorino had 13 RBI and an OPS of.864 during the Phillies 2008 World Series run. 45 Although Fowler is arbitration eligible for the second-time, he and Victorino were members of the same service class. The Rockies generous 40 Dexter Fowler & Shane Victorino Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com 41 Shane Victorino Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 42 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 43 Shane Victorino Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 44 Dexter Fowler Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 45 Shane Victorino Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 9

10 $4 million offer to Fowler does contemplate Fowler s future potential; but based on Victorino s achievements there is no evidence that Fowler s salary should be above $4 million. Additionally, Victorino garnered another productive season in 2009 and signed a 3-yr contract with the Phillies for the seasons. 46 Despite an average annual value of $6.7 million, Victorino received a 2010 salary of $4million. 47 Using a look back approach, Victorino was paid $4 million for a season in which he recorded an OPS of.756 and a.301 playoff BA, and was elected to the NL All-Star team and was awarded another Gold Glove. 48 Looking back at Victorino s continued success, it is evident that Fowler is not deserving of his requested salary. Moreover, this concept is reinforced by Matt Kemp s contract with the LA Dodgers, worth an average of $5.5 million per year. 49 During 2011, which would have been Kemp s second-year of arbitration eligibility, Kemp was atop the NL in nearly every hitting statistic, including 39 HR s, 126 RBI and an OPS of Compared to Kemp s AAV of $5.5 million in 2011, Fowler s request of $4.6 million is wholly unrealistic. d. Nyjer Morgan Fowler v. Nyjer Morgan ($2.35M) 51 Fowler (3.168 ST) Morgan (3.120 ST) Platform Season Morgan (2011) Despite Nyjer Morgan s less body of work (same service class), his career BA is higher than Fowler and his OBP is marginally less than Fowler. Looking to their platform seasons, both achieved a similar BA, and Morgan s 2011 OPS is marginally less than Fowler s when 46 Id. 47 Id. 48 Id. 49 Matt Kemp Player Page on Baseball-Reference.com 50 Id. 51 Dexter Fowler & Nyjer Morgan Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com 10

11 considering the Coors Effect. Additionally, Morgan is forever adored in Milwaukee because of his walk-off single in extra innings of the final game of the 2011 NLDS. In light of Morgan s achievements, his 2012 salary was $2.35 million. Fowler s similar performance and marginal power upgrade does not warrant a salary nearly $2 million more than Morgan; Fowler s value to the Rockies is less than the $4.3 midpoint and his 2013 salary should appropriately be $4 million. e. Marlon Byrd Fowler v. Marlon Byrd ($1.8M) 52 Fowler (3.168 ST) Byrd (4.045 ST) Platform Season Byrd (2007) Another illustration of why Fowler s 2013 salary should be below the $4.3 million midpoint is because of Marlon Byrd s 2008 salary ($1.8 million) following his standout 2007 season. Both Byrd and Fowler have similar career achievements through their platform seasons. Despite appearing in fewer games than Fowler, Byrd had a higher BA and produced more runs than Fowler during his platform season. However, Byrd had slightly more service time and was awarded a 2008 salary of only $1.8 million. Although Byrd experienced a disappointing year 53 prior to arriving in Texas, he was just as much a top-prospect as Fowler. 54 Considering Byrd s 2008 salary, it is inequitable for Fowler to receive anything more than $4 million. f. Rajai Davis Fowler v. Rajai Davis 55 (2.625 M aav) Fowler (3.168 ST) Davis (3.167 ST) Dexter Fowler & Marlon Byrd Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com /.317/.350 in 78 games with WSN, Marlon Byrd Player Page, see Baseball-Reference.com 54 #1 Rockies Prospect in 2008, Baseball America Top 100 in , see Baseball-Reference.com 55 Rajai Davis Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com 11

12 Platform Season Davis (2010) An interesting comparable is Toronto Blue Jays CF/OF Rajai Davis, who had the same exact ST as Fowler (3.168) and agreed to a 2-year contract with the Blue Jays for $5.25 million following the 2010 season. Davis essentially agreed to a 1-year contract for million (AAV) for the 2011 season, further presenting why Fowler is less valuable than $4.3 million. g. Ryan Ludwick Also, Ryan Ludwick s service and $3.7 million contract following his All-Star 2008 performance demonstrates why Fowler should be awarded the Club s offer. Ludwick s power, including 37 HR in , is far greater than Fowler s. Ludwick s career RBI, OPS and overall production is higher than Fowler s, yet the OF/CF Ludwick has a lower 2009 salary. Fowler v. Ryan Ludwick ($3.7M) 57 Fowler (3.168 ST) Ludwick (3.109 ST) Platform Season Ludwick (2008) V. CONCLUSION Compared to similarly situated players, Fowler s value to the Rockies is appropriately valued less than the $4.3 million midpoint. Therefore, the Rockies respectfully request this Panel to find in favor of the Club and award Fowler a salary of $4 million. 56 Ryan Ludwick Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com 57 Ryan Ludwick Player Pages, see Baseball-Reference.com 12