2015 National Baseball Arbitration Competition. Kansas City Royals v. Lorenzo Cain. Submitted by Team 33. Brief on Behalf of Lorenzo Cain

Transcription

1 2015 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Kansas City Royals v. Lorenzo Cain Submitted by Team 33 Brief on Behalf of Lorenzo Cain 1

2 Table of Contents I. Introduction and Request for Arbitration Award Amount...3 II. Mr. Cain s Defensive Abilities Are Among the Best in the League...4 III. Mr. Cain Had a Breakout Season At the Plate in IV. Mr. Cain Has Maintained Durability By Avoiding Serious Injury....7 V. Mr. Cain s Career Contributions Are On an Upward Trend...8 VI. Salaries of Comparative Outfielders Command an Award of $3.35M..10 VII. Recent Performance Record of the Royals VIII. Conclusion and Request for Award...12 Table of Sources Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference, MLB, NBC Sports, Fangraphs.com, Kansas City Star, USA Today, 2

3 I. Introduction and Request for Arbitration Award Amount This brief analyzes the contributions of outfielder Lorenzo Cain ( Player or Mr. Cain ) and other criteria set forth by Major League Baseball s ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ) in order to assess the appropriate salary for Mr. Cain s 2015 contract with the Kansas City Royals ( Club or Royals ). The CBA sets forth the following relevant criteria for determining the appropriate arbitration award: (i) the quality of the Player s contribution to the Club during the past season; (ii) the length and consistency of the Player s career contributions; (iii) the record of the Player s past compensation; (iv) comparative baseball salaries; (v) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player; and (vi) the recent performance record of the Club. 1 Given Mr. Cain s years of service time, he is eligible for arbitration for the first time heading into the 2015 season. Mr. Cain is a critical member of the Royals organization, as demonstrated through his defensive prowess, significantly improved offensive skills, and leadership as the club s starting center fielder. Mr. Cain s contributions played a vital role in the Royals impressive accomplishments in 2014, culminating in the club s first American League pennant since Based upon the arguments set forth below, Mr. Cain has earned a salary above the $2.725 million mid-point that has been established by the proposals offered by Mr. Cain and the Club. Therefore, Mr. Cain requests that the National Baseball Arbitration Competition Committee ( Committee ) find that Mr. Cain is entitled to a 2015 arbitration award equivalent to the player s offer of $3.35 million. 1 Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement, MLB, (p ) 3

4 II. Mr. Cain s Defensive Abilities Are Among the Best in the League Mr. Cain enjoyed a breakout performance in 2014 as the club s starting center fielder and No. 3 hitter. Mr. Cain s overall excellence propelled the team within one win of a World Series title, captivating the city and the nation. A large part of Mr. Cain s effectiveness derived from his superb defensive ability, as seen by Table 1. Table 1: 2014 American League Outfield Leaderboard for Defensive Runs Saved As seen by the chart, Mr. Cain was second in the entire American League in defensive runs saved ( DRS ) 2 with 24, and first among center fielders. Notably, Mr. Cain s DRS rating was three times better than the fifteenth best outfielder in the league, a player still regarded as a great defensive player. Mr. Cain fared similarly well in Defensive Wins Against Replacement ( dwar ), a statistic that measures how many wins a player added to his team s total above what a replacement player (described as a AAA or AAAA player by baseball- 2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a defensive statistic that rates players as above or below average on defense. The comprehensive stat relies on film study and computer comparisons of every play that a player makes during the season. If a play is made that only 50% of other outfielders make, the player gets.50 added to his season total. If he blows that same play, then.50 is subtracted from his total. 4

5 reference.com) would add. Mr. Cain added 2.7 dwar in 2014, best in the American League among outfielders and second best among all position players. 3 Examining traditional fielding statistics, Mr. Cain still shines. Compiling more than 1100 innings in the field, Mr. Cain committed only two errors and maintained a stellar.994 fielding percentage, a number that increased to.996 in center field. 4 In addition, Mr. Cain s arm strength is ample he compiled eight assists in 2014, ranking 11th in the American League. 5 Looking at both Mr. Cain s advanced and traditional defensive metrics, it is irrefutable that Mr. Cain makes plays that other outfielders cannot, while maintaining consistency on routine plays as well. At just 28 years of age, there is no reason to believe that Mr. Cain s defensive ability will decline. In fact, since becoming an everyday player in 2013, Mr. Cain has posted identical DRS numbers. Mr. Cain looks forward to excelling in the field in 2015 and for years to come. The Committee should recognize that Mr. Cain s elite fielding alone nearly makes him worthy of the $3.35 million salary proposed by the player. III. Mr. Cain Had a Breakout Season At the Plate in 2014 Mr. Cain s 2014 season at the plate was a resounding success. Batting in the highly important No. 3 spot in the lineup, Mr. Cain hit.301, eighth best in the American League. 6 In addition, Mr. Cain reached base at a solid.339 clip. 7 Despite his defensive expertise and wellknown speed on the base paths, Mr. Cain should not be mistaken for a singles hitter, as is commonly associated with the position. Mr. Cain hit 29 doubles and four triples, as well as five American League Batting Leaders, Baseball Reference, American League Outfield, Baseball Reference, specialpos_of-fielding.shtml 5 Id. 6 Lorenzo Cain, Baseball Reference, 7 Id. 5

6 home runs in 471 total at-bats last season. 8 Mr. Cain s 29 doubles is within shouting distance of the 35 necessary to qualify for top ten in doubles for the American League. 9 Furthermore, Mr. Cain s power has not yet reached its full potential. As shown by his seven home runs in just 222 at-bats in 2012 and his 16 home runs in AAA in 2011, Mr. Cain is well capable of hitting ten home runs a year. 10 Complementing Mr. Cain s abilities at the plate is his track record of success on the base paths. Mr. Cain swiped 28 bases in 2014, also among the top ten in the American League. 11 Mr. Cain s success rate when attempting to steal was also excellent, as he was only caught stealing five times, giving him an 85 percent success rate in This number was among the top 15 best in the league in Critics of Mr. Cain s year at the plate may point out his batting average on balls in play ( BABIP ), which was.380 this season. 13 In years past, Mr. Cain s BABIP has ranged from.309 to However, there is a logical explanation to this marked improvement. In 2014, Mr. Cain did a better job of avoiding hitting pop-ups, instead driving the ball on a line drive more consistently. 15 This suggests improvements in Mr. Cain s swing and/or batting approach that should provide more staying power than the mere whims of luck. It is also worth mentioning that given Mr. Cain s speed, his BABIP will be higher than the average slower player. However, it is ultimately best to avoid making any conclusions about Mr. Cain s BABIP and the legitimacy of his batting average until he accumulates a larger sample size of seasons. 8 Id American League, supra note Lorenzo Cain, supra note Id American League, supra note Lorenzo Cain, supra note Id. 15 Cain s pop-up rate dropped from 4.5 percent, which was above league average, to a mere 1.6 percent of his balls in play, well below league average. Lorenzo Cain Hits Lottery, Fangraphs, 6

7 Adding it all together, Mr. Cain s 2014 campaign was nothing short of elite. He accumulated 2.3 offensive Wins Above Replacement ( WAR ), which combines with his dwar for a total of 5.0 WAR on the season. 16 That number placed Mr. Cain fifth among all center fielders in baseball. 17 IV. Mr. Cain Has Maintained Durability By Avoiding Serious Injury Mr. Cain s excellent speed and vast range in the outfield leads to a style of play that puts his body on the line more often than other, more stationary, players. However, in 2014, Mr. Cain played in 133 games for the club and accumulated 502 plate appearances. 18 On April 16, 2014, Mr. Cain made his only trip to the disabled list when he suffered a left groin strain. 19 Because the strain was only a grade 1 strain the most minor kind Mr. Cain quickly returned to action. 20 After a brief two-game rehabilitation stint with the AAA club, Mr. Cain made his return to the Royals lineup on May 5, 2014 and immediately contributed four hits against the San Diego Padres. 21 For the rest of the season, Mr. Cain never missed more than one game in a row. There is something to be said about Mr. Cain s toughness as well. In the playoffs, Mr. Cain admitted to nursing leg injuries during the prior 2-3 weeks. 22 However, Mr. Cain did not miss time and rather said that the issue improved as the game went along. Mr. Cain s noted determination and ability to remain in the lineup was hardly the mark of a player typically regarded as injury prone. Mr. Cain s prior injury history is not as relevant in the determination of his 2015 arbitration award amount. Mr. Cain is coming off two straight seasons playing at least Id. 17 MLB Player Batting Stats 2014, ESPN, 18 Lorenzo Cain, supra note Lorenzo Cain lands on disabled list with groin strain, Hardball Talk, NBC Sports, 20 Id. 21 Royals activate Cain, send Paredes to Omaha, MLB, 22 Lorenzo Cain admits to nursing leg issues (Sun, Oct. 26, 2014), Rotoworld, NBC Sports, 7

8 games, and has done so in four of his last five seasons. 23 Table 2 demonstrates the number of games that Mr. Cain has missed due to injury since arriving in the majors in 2010, with 2012 serving as an obvious anomaly season. Table 2: Games Missed Due to Injuries 24 Year Games Missed (missed time while in Triple A) (missed time while in Triple A) Mr. Cain s past injuries do not carry a heightened risk of serious re-injury in the future. As Mr. Cain s injuries have been soft tissue injuries in his legs, he does not carry the associated re-injury risk that comes with a damaged throwing arm, fragile joints (wrists and knees), or back/spine problems. 25 Furthermore, Mr. Cain has shown the willingness to go the extra mile to avoid future injuries. Before the 2014 season, Mr. Cain worked with famed track coach Al Hobson in Kansas City to improve on an unusual running style that may have contributed to past leg injuries. 26 Mr. Cain had the work ethic to journey to Kansas City a week or two every month in the offseason, waking up at five in the morning in order to have two-a-day workouts. The extra efforts to stay healthy paid off in Lorenzo Cain, supra note Lorenzo Cain - Injury History, Baseball Prospectus, 25 Tommy John FAQ, MLB, 26 Lorenzo Cain s road from terrible to the World Series, USA Today, 8

9 V. Mr. Cain s Career Contributions Are On an Upward Trend As discussed above, Mr. Cain s 2014 campaign was a truly elite and breakout season. However, Mr. Cain s 2013 season showed many signs of stardom as well. Despite playing in fewer games in 2013, Mr. Cain was arguably even better in the field, as he accumulated just as many DRS and a slightly better dwar than in All told, Mr. Cain was still worth 3.1 total WAR in That number is quite good. If Mr. Cain s WAR from were averaged out to a common denominator of 600 plate appearances, he places 24th in all of baseball. 28 Mr. Cain s path to the major leagues is unique. He did not begin playing baseball until his sophomore year of high school, a timeline which is extraordinarily late when compared to his professional colleagues. 29 However, Mr. Cain was still drafted in the 17th round out of high school due to his significant raw ability. 30 Now 28 years of age, it makes logical sense that Mr. Cain has taken a few more years compared to other young stars in the league to hit his true peak as a player. The fact that 2013 and 2014 have been Mr. Cain s two best campaigns supports this assertion. Table 3: Mr. Cain s Major League Career Statistics 31 Year Games At-Bats Batting Average Doubles Home Runs Stolen Bases Lorenzo Cain, supra note Welcome to Stardom, Lorenzo Cain, Fangraphs, 29 A late bloomer, Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain making up for lost time, Kansas City Star, Cain-making-up-for-lost-time.html 30 Id. 31 Lorenzo Cain, Baseball Reference, supra note 6. 9

10 Career VI. Salaries of Comparative Outfielders Command an Award of $3.35M In an effort to provide clarity upon Mr. Cain s deserved salary, Table 4 compares three similar outfielders and their respective salaries in their first years of arbitration eligibility. Table 4: Comparative Player Salaries and Statistics Games HR RBI Extra Base Hits SLG % Mark Trumbo Arbitration Award Midpoint: $5.9M Service Time: years Platform (2014) Previous Year to Platform (2013) Ryan Ludwick 32 Salary: $6.775M Service Time: years Platform (2010) Previous Year to Platform (through 2009) Carlos Quentin 33 Salary: $7.025M Service Time: years Platform (2011) Previous Year to Platform (through 2012) Jay Bruce 34 Salary: $7.5M Service Time: years Platform (2012) Jon Jay, Baseball Reference, 33 Drew Stubbs, Baseball Reference, 34 Brett Gardner, Baseball Reference, 10

11 Previous Year to Platform (through 2011) Last offseason, given his first opportunity for an arbitration hearing, Jon Jay ( Mr. Jay ) settled with the St. Louis Cardinals on a salary of $3.25M. Despite coming off the worst year of his career, hitting only.276 and compiling a poor -0.9 dwar, Mr. Jay still earned a salary substantially higher than Mr. Cain s midpoint of $2.725M. Although Mr. Jay has been a more consistent presence in the lineup overall compared to Mr. Cain, Mr. Cain is a stronger player than Mr. Jay in nearly every other facet of the game. Although the two center fielders offer similar offensive output, Mr. Cain s dwar is vastly superior and he has also shown the ability to steal more than 20 stolen bases, something Mr. Jay has yet to do. In 2013, Drew Stubbs ( Mr. Stubbs ) received a one-year contract worth $2.825M despite an uneven 2012 campaign that saw Mr. Stubbs barely manage an average above.200. The outfielder also displayed an extremely poor on-base percentage (.277), striking out 166 times (Mr. Stubbs led the league with 205 strikeouts in 2011). By comparison, Mr. Cain managed a.339 OBP and struck out 108 times. Moreover, while Mr. Stubbs was worth a mediocre 0.5 dwar and 0.2 WAR overall, Mr. Cain was worth 5.0 WAR in The only skillset Mr. Stubbs offered over Mr. Cain was the ability to hit home runs, but Mr. Stubbs propensity to strike out severely diminishes the value of his power. Therefore, Mr. Cain should at least earn $2.825M in 2014, which would be higher than the midpoint of $ Finally, Brett Gardner ( Mr. Gardner ) provides another useful outfielder comparison. In the 2011 campaign, which served as the platform season for his first year of arbitration, Mr. Gardner stole an impressive 49 bases. However, he batted a paltry.259 and predominantly manned left field, a position that is valued at less of a premium compared to center field. Mr. 11

12 Gardner s 2011 season was worth 1.9 dwar and 4.1 WAR total highly respectable, but still not as great as Mr. Cain s 2014 numbers. VII. Recent Performance Record of the Royals In large part due to Mr. Cain s contributions during the regular season, the Royals went in 2014 made a highly successful run through the playoffs. Notably, the Royals staged a memorable comeback in the wildcard single-elimination game. 35 Mr. Cain did his part in helping the club stave off elimination, doubling in the first run of the game, and then later singling in a run in the eighth. 36 In the ALCS, Mr. Cain terrorized Oriole pitchers to the tune of a.533 (8 for 15) batting average. Meanwhile in the field, Mr. Cain made several highlight-reel catches look routine, lifting the Royals entire outfield into a much-lauded unit. 37 Mr. Cain earned the ALCS series MVP award for his efforts, as the club advanced to its first World Series since Once there, Mr. Cain continued his strong play by hitting.308 with four RBIs in seven games. 39 Mr. Cain looks forward to continued success with the Royals in the years to come. VIII. Conclusion and Request for Award A former top prospect with tantalizing tools and much untapped potential, Mr. Cain put it all together in A remarkable story of unparalleled work ethic and dedication overcoming a late introduction to the game, Mr. Cain s success was much deserved. His success was also a large part of the club s memorable and successful season. In assessing Mr. Cain s arbitration award, the Committee should not forget to factor in both Mr. Cain s elite defensive ability and burgeoning offensive game. After evaluating Mr. Cain s full body of work, it is clear that Mr. Cain has earned a substantial increase in salary, 35 Id. 36 Id. 37 The long, winding road for Lorenzo Cain, Beyond the Boxscore, 38 Id. 39 Id. 12

13 certainly above the midpoint of $2.725M. Therefore, Mr. Cain requests that the Committee find the player s offer of $3.35M to be an appropriate award for Mr. Cain s services in