High stakes steeplechase in a changing climate: predicting travel time and prespawn mortality in Chinook salmon

Transcription

1 University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage 2017 Jun 20th, 1:30 PM - 1:50 PM High stakes steeplechase in a changing climate: predicting travel time and prespawn mortality in Chinook salmon Christopher Caudill Department of Fish and Wildlife Services,University of Idaho Tracy Bowerman Department of Fish and Wildlife Services,University of Idaho Matthew Keefer Department of Fish and Wildlife Services,University of Idaho Lisa Crozier Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA fisheries Follow this and additional works at: Caudill, Christopher; Bowerman, Tracy; Keefer, Matthew; and Crozier, Lisa, "High stakes steeplechase in a changing climate: predicting travel time and prespawn mortality in Chinook salmon" (2017). International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Fish Passage Community at UMass Amherst at ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact scholarworks@library.umass.edu.

2 Christopher Caudill, Tracy Bowerman, Matthew Keefer Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, U. of Idaho Lisa Crozier Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA fisheries, Seattle

3 Sockeye Salmon 250, ,000 migration mortalities > 80% of the COL R run Chris Fisher, Colville Tribes Steve Ringman/The Seattle Times

4 PNW: Complex climate effects, but warmer rivers likely Bonneville 2015 Earlier spring warming Later fall cooling Higher T mean & T max Not a salmon Crozier et al. (2008, EvolApp) Increasingly stressful conditions for many salmonid populations

5 Adult salmon freshwater mortality 1. Adult mortality overview Chinook salmon En-route mortality: death during upstream migration prior to reaching spawning grounds Pre-spawn mortality (PSM): death on spawning grounds prior to reproduction Temperature ( C) Migration Holding Spawning Temperature Discharge Apr 21-May 10-Jul 29-Aug 18-Oct Date Discharge (kcfs/sec)

6 Why does PSM matter? 1. Adult mortality overview Puget Sound Coho salmon 0% PSM 30-year projections : 25% PSM 60% decline 75% PSM extinction 25% PSM 75% PSM Tiffany Linbo, NOAA fisheries Sprombergand Scholz 2011

7 Motivating questions: How might migration rate and timing, energetic status, and climate affect PSM? Travel time & Bioenergeticmodels for South Fork Salmon River population

8 What causes salmon to die prematurely? 2. Current understanding PSM Direct causes Low O2 Pathogens Heat Stress Energetic Depletion Contributing factors Density (Alaska) Migration timing (Fraser) Individual fish condition (Willamette) Temperature (Many populations) Climate

9 2. Current understanding Questionnaire: overview of PSM monitoring PSM monitoring widespread but considerable variation in data collection and reporting Bowerman et al. (2016, Fisheries) 37 Respondents in Columbia Basin 12 different agencies ~7,000 stream km surveyed

10 Spring-summer (stream-type) Chinook PSM in the Columbia 3. PSM patterns 618 site years of carcass data 59 streams Annual PSM (%) Salmon

11 Factors affecting Chinook PSM in the CRB 3. PSM patterns Predicted PSM % Predicted PSM % Entiat (Upper Col.) Wenatchee (Upper Col.) Hatchery Natural Umatilla (Mid-Col.) Grande Ronde (Snake) Avg. August Temp C Avg. August Temp C Probability of PSM: Increased with temperature Higher for hatchery fish Increased with fork length Varied among rivers CAUTION: Many predictors intercorrelated

12 Willamette Basin spring Chinook PSM 3. PSM patterns Strong temperature effect Clackamas N. SantiamLow Role of hatchery fish S. Santiam N. SantiamUp Percent hatchery origin salmon McKenzie Low Middle Fork McKenzie Up

13 Bioenergetics and travel time models 4. Models SF Salmon R (Idaho) Migration travel time: 24 Segments, 8 dams >900 km, ~1,100 m elevation Holding: 1-2 months Bioenergetics: Migration timing Migration duration Cost of migration & holding River Environment Behavior Energy Density Migration Rate Energy Budget PSM Scenarios Impounded corridor 2. Fishway 3. Reservoir Impounded corridor 1. Tailrace Flow direction

14 Travel time model 4. Travel time model ~2,300 Radio- and PIT-tagged salmon, Travel time + Temperature exposure + Energy use per segment = Risk of bioenergeticexhaustion % Fishway time % Tailrace time (high energetic costs) LGR and SFS timing % Reservoir time Crozier, Bowerman, Burke, Keefer, Caudill In revision

15 Travel time model validation 4. Travel time model Observed (Days) 1.2 Fishways % Reservoir Hydrosystem % 6 Tailraces Travel time a function of: 80 Snake/Salmon Discharge Water temperature Time of day (Impounded) Day of year (Snake-Salmon) 70 Snake/Salmon Individual variability Total travel times: within 3% ( d) Individual reach: within 8% (2-71 h ) Modeled (Days)

16 4. Proximate analyses Spring Chinook energy budget, S. Fork Salmon R. Bonneville Dam + gonad development ~14% Spawning grounds PSMs Post-spawn morts Migration ~46% Holding ~25% Spawning ~7% Bowerman et al JFB Proximate analyses using SFSR salmon collected at Bonneville Dam and in SFSR per year Some PSM fish had energetic reserves similar to postspawn mortalities

17 5. Bioenergetics model Preliminary model results: current conditions Energy remaining at spawn date (kj/kg) Energy density available at spawn date current conditions 2015 conditions (climate change) 2015 migration corridor, 2040 predictions at spawning grounds Threshold >20 C Late migrators had more energy available on spawning grounds But also more likely to encounter > 20 C May 1 June 1 July 1 Date at start of migration

18 5. Bioenergetics model Preliminary results: climate change predictions Energy remaining at spawn date (kj/kg) Energy density available at spawn date current conditions 2015 conditions (warmest recent year) 2015 migration corridor, 2040 predictions at spawning grounds Date at start of migration Threshold May 1 June 1 July 1 >20 C Energy density reduced throughout migration window, but especially for early migrators with long prespawn holding 2040 holding predictions from NorWeSTmodel

19 Preliminary results: likelihood of success Energy density available at spawn date 5. Bioenergetics model Energy remaining at spawn date (kj/kg) current conditions 2015 conditions (warmest recent year) 2015 migration corridor, 2040 predictions at spawning grounds Threshold >20 C Current conditions: Sufficient fuel for most SF Salmon River Chinook to spawn May 1 June 1 July 1 Date at start of migration 2040 holding predictions from NorWeSTmodel

20 Preliminary results: likelihood of success Energy density available at spawn date 5. Bioenergetics model Energy remaining at spawn date (kj/kg) current conditions 2015 conditions (warmest recent year) 2015 migration corridor, 2040 predictions at spawning grounds Threshold >20 C 2015 Scenario: April and May migrants on the energy bubble May 1 June 1 July 1 Date at start of migration 2040 holding predictions from NorWeSTmodel

21 Preliminary results: The Big Squeeze 5. Bioenergetics model Energy density available at spawn date Energy remaining at spawn date (kj/kg) current conditions 2015 conditions (climate change) 2015 migration corridor, 2040 predictions at spawning grounds May 1 June 1 July 1 Date at start of migration Threshold >20 C 2040 Scenario: ~ First half of run at risk of energetic exhaustion Stressful conditions likely to start earlier; higher T mean and T max 2040 holding predictions from NorWeSTmodel

22 Take-homes Window of successful migration timing will narrow Range of behaviors will likely be constrained Negative effects on distribution and viability

23 Take-homes Fish Passage must be viewed in broader context!

24 Acknowledgements Data from: Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Yakama Nation Idaho Department of Fish and Game Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Nez Perce Tribes Confederated Tribes of Umatilla Indian Reservation Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs NOAA fisheries U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service University of Idaho Fish Ecology Research Lab US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Funding from: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers University of Idaho

25 Some relevant references -lab Bowerman, T., M. L. Keefer, and C. C. Caudill Pacific salmon prespawn mortality: patterns, methods, and study design considerations. Fisheries 41(12): Bowerman, T., A. Pinson-Dumm, C. A. Peery, and C. C. Caudill Reproductive energy expenditure and changes in body morphology for a population of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytsacha with a long distance migration. Journal of Fish Biology. Crozier, L., G. T. Bowerman, B. J. Burke, M. L. Keefer, and C. C. Caudill. Submitted. High stakes steeplechase: a behavior-based model to predict individual travel time through diverse migration segments. Ecosphere. Crozier, L. G., A. P. Hendry, P. W. Lawson, T. P. Quinn, N. J. Mantua, J. Battin, R. G. Shaw, and R. B. Huey Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon. Evol App1: Hinch, S. G., S. J. Cooke, A. P. Farrell, K. M. Miller, M. Lapointe, and D. A. Patterson Dead fish swimming: a review of research on the early migration and high premature mortality in adult Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka. Journal of Fish Biology 81: Keefer, M. L., T. S. Clabough, M. A. Jepson, G. P. Naughton, T. J. Blubaugh, D. C. Joosten, and C. C. Caudill. Thermal exposure of adult Chinook salmon in the Willamette River Basin. J Thermal Biol: 48: Keefer, M. L., M. A. Jepson, G. P. Naughton, T. J. Blubaugh, T. S. Clabough, and C. C. Caudill Condition-dependent en route migration mortality of adult Chinook salmon in the Willamette River main stem. N Am J Fish Manage 37: Keefer, M. L., C. A. Peery, T. C. Bjornn, M. A. Jepson, and L. C. Stuehrenberg Hydrosystem, dam, and reservoir passage rates of adult chinook salmon and steelhead in the Columbia and Snake rivers. Trans Am Fish Soc 133: Keefer, M. L., C. A. Peery, and M. J. Heinrich Temperature-mediated en route migration mortality and travel rates of endangered Snake River sockeye salmon. Ecol FW Fish 17: Keefer, M. L., G. A. Taylor, D. F. Garletts, G. A. Gauthier, T. M. Pierce, and C. C. Caudill Prespsawn mortality in adult spring Chinook salmon outplanted above barrier dams. Ecol FW Fish 19: Naughton, G. P., C. C. Caudill, M. L. Keefer, T. C. Bjornn, L. C. Stuehrenberg, and C. A. Peery Late-season mortality during migration of radio-tagged sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Columbia River. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 62: Spromberg, J. A. and N. L. Scholz Estimating the future decline of wild coho salmon populations resulting from early spawner die-offs in urbanizing watersheds of the Pacific Northwest,USA. Integrated Env Assess Manage 7(4):