Generative Statistical Model of NFL Gamecast data. 3 Feb 2016 Carson Cumbee

Transcription

1 Generative Statistical Model of NFL Gamecast data 3 Feb 2016 Carson Cumbee

2 Agenda Describe NFL Gamecast data Describe Generative Statistical Model Fidelity of the Model Demo Discussion 2

3 NFL Gamecast Data (12:57) J.Tucker 19 yard field goal is GOOD Center-M.Cox Holder-S.Koch. J.Tucker kicks 69 yards from BLT 35 to SF -4. L.James to SF 24 for 28 yards (A.Allen). (12:47) (Shotgun) F.Gore right end to SF 29 for 5 yards (D.Tyson; D.Ellerbe). (12:00) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep left to R.Moss pushed ob at BLT 39 for 32 yards (E.Reed). Pass 26 YAC 6 (11:34) (Shotgun) F.Gore left end to BLT 18 for 21 yards (C.Graham). (10:44) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick left guard to BLT 15 for 3 yards (R.Lewis T.Cody). (10:04) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN. (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. C.Kaepernick pass to R.Moss is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Kaepernick in shotgun passed left for Moss but overthrew him. D.Akers kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to BLT 0. J.Jones to BLT 21 for 21 yards (D.Walker). (9:51) J.Flacco pass short middle to R.Rice to BLT 25 for 4 yards (I.Sopoaga P.Willis) [N.Bowman]. Pass -6 YAC 10 3

4 Not NFL Gamecast Data This play would be: C. Palmer pass short left to C. Johnson for 21yds (E. Wilson). 4

5 Normalized data gid,pid,detail,off,def,type,dseq,len,qtr,min,sec,ptso,ptsd,timo,timd,dwn,ytg,yfog,zone,yds,succ,fd,sg,nh,pts,bc,kne,dir,rtck1,rtck2,psr, comp,spk,loc,trg,dfb,ptck1,ptck2,sk1,sk2,ptm1,pen1,desc1,cat1,pey1,pdo1,ptm2,pen2,desc2,cat2,pey2,pdo2,ptm3,pen3,desc3,cat3, pey3,pdo3,int,iry,fum,frcv,fry,forc,saf,blk,brcv,fgxp,fkicker,dist,good,punter,pgro,pnet,ptb,pr,pry,pfc,kicker,kgro,knet,ktb,kr,kry,lt,lg,c, rg,rt 3456,562585,M.Prater kicks 65 yards from DEN 35 to end zone, Touchback.,BAL,DEN,KOFF, 0,6,1,15,0,0,0,3,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,MP-2100,65,45,t,,,,,,, 3456,562586,(15:00) J.Flacco pass short middle to R.Rice to BAL 19 for -1 yards (W.Woodyard).,BAL,DEN,PASS, 1,30,1,15,0,0,0,3,3,1,10,20,1,-1,,,,,,,,,,,JF-1,00,t,,SM,RR-0400,,WW-0900,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BM-1600,KO-0750,MB-2400,MY-0100, MO ,562587,(14:14) R.Rice left tackle to BAL 22 for 3 yards (D.Ihenacho).,BAL,DEN,RUSH,2,36,1,14,14,0,0,3,3,2,11,19,1,3,,,,,,RR-0400,, LT,DI-0050,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BM-1600,KO-0750,MB-2400,MY-0100,MO ,562588,(13:38) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to B.Stokley to BAL 28 for 6 yards (C.Harris). Penalty on BAL-J.Jones, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.,bal,den,pass,3,20,1,13,38,0,0,3,3,3,8,22,2,6,,,t,,,,,,,,jf-1900,t,,sl,bs-4100,,ch-1500,,,,bal,jj-3900, Offensive Pass Interference,2,,D,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BM-1600,KO-0750,MB-2400,MY-0100,MO ,562589,(13:18) S.Koch punts 49 yards to DEN 23, Center-M.Cox, out of bounds.,den,bal,punt, 0,8,1,13,18,0,0,3,3,4,2,28,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,SK-0600,49,49,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3456,562590,(13:10) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete short right to J.Thomas (J.Ihedigbo).,DEN,BAL,PASS, 1,5,1,13,10,0,0,3,3,1,10,23,2,,,,t,,,,,,,,PM-02,0,,,SR,JT-2000,JI-0200,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,RC-1200,ZB-0100,MR-0100,LV-0100,OF ,562591,(13:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Moreno right guard to DEN 24 for 1 yard (T.Suggs; J.Bynes).,DEN,BAL,RUSH, 2,40,1,13,5,0,0,3,3,2,10,23,2,1,,,t,t,,KM-2900,,RG,TS-3500,JB-8700,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,RC-1200,ZB-0100,MR-0100,LV-0100,OF

6 Generative Model Game State (Play Decision) Play Execution (yds gained) Game State update (football logic) 6

7 What is Game State The Offense (like Baltimore) The Down (1st, 2nd..) Yds for 1st Down (10yds) Yds for Touchdown (80 yds) Time Left in Game (2400 seconds) Point Differential ( -7pts/relative to offense) Forms a vector: 10yds,80yds,2400,-7 7

8 What is Game State Vectors per Offense Down # Offense Down 545 SEA SEA SEA SEA 4 8

9 Search over past game states for play decision Find the closest play decision for a given game state Find the closest play 7 Running plays (rle,rlt,rlg,rupm,rrg,rrt,rre) 6 Passing plays (psl,psm,psr,pdl,pdm,pdr) Fg/Punt 9

10 Play Execution Draw evenly from offense s play history or defense number of times yds gained s play history Given Baltimore Run up the middle

11 Play Execution Apply probabilities for turnovers Fumbles recovered Pass interceptions 11

12 Model Fidelity (things included) Generic Punt Rush plays with direction Pass plays with direction FG probabilities extra point is automatic interception probabilities fumble recovery probabilities halftime possesion switch 12

13 Model Fidelity (things not included) Overtime rules onside kicks probabilistic punts common penalties rare penalties sacks (but are implied by passing yardage) 2 point conversion probabilistic kick returns individual players decision memory 13

14 Model runs (DEN SEA) teama teamb diff pta ptb wina winb run# DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA DEN SEA

15 Model runs (DEN SEA 3600) ROIPLOT 15

16 Model runs (DEN JAC) teama teamb diff pta ptb wina winb run# DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC DEN JAC

17 17 Demo

18 Discussion Relevance to the Lab For our topics of research, what is the game state? For RASOR maybe it is a count of mentions? or is it poll numbers for political parties? or is it an analyst judgement over time? 18