The Single Most Important Thing You Can Do to Improve Reliability (History & Life Experience) By: Jack R. Nicholas, Jr., P.E.

Transcription

1 The Single Most Important Thing You Can Do to Improve Reliability (History & Life Experience) By: Jack R. Nicholas, Jr., P.E., CMRP Keynote for Reliable Asset World Conference Clearwater Beach, FL 15 May 2014

2 Origins of Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) 1960 Federal Aviation Agency and Industry Task Force (Boeing Aircraft, United Airlines and others) formed a task force to investigate capabilities of preventive maintenance. Learned that: Scheduled maintenance tasks have little effect on failure of complex systems unless there is a dominant failure mode Most systems and components in aircraft have conditional probability of failure profiles that are different than the conventional wisdom says it should be (e.g., bathtub curve between infant failure and end of useful life) 2

3 Profiles with Wearout Characteristic The meaning of the above profiles is that when searching for a correct frequency for a/an (intrusive) PM to try to mitigate wearout, we were seeking an impossible goal no less than 80 % and perhaps as much as 96% of the time Ref: JRN

4 Infant Mortality Failure Profile Dominant failure profile in commercial aircraft studies Progressively lower in 1980 s & 1990 s Statistics are 68%, 66%, 29%, 6% for the 4 studies cited Ref: JRN

5 Origins of RCM (Con d) 1965 Rudimentary decision diagram developed by Task Force Task Force became the Maintenance Steering Group and refined the decision diagram into what is called MSG1 for use on the Boeing MSG2 developed and applied to the Douglas DC 10 and Lockheed Tristar 5

6 Driving Force for RCM in Commercial & Military Aircraft Economics VC-25 New jumbo jets had to fly more hours to be economical to purchase & operate Airlines and military didn t want to waste money on more maintenance on larger aircraft proven not to affect reliability positively Had to apply maintenance techniques less prone to cause failure and more prone to assure early detection of degradation 6

7 Origins & History of RCM (Con d) Early 1970 s Naval Air Systems began studies to convert McDonnell F4J Phantom II twin jet fighterbomber and S-3 (Viking - twin jet) antisubmarine warfare carrier based aircraft (& Lockheed P-3 Orion- 4 Turbo Prop land based plane) to RCM based maintenance strategy 7

8 Origins & History of RCM (Con d) Mid Navy adopts the basics of MSG1/2 for application to newer nuclear powered fleet ballistic missile submarines changing to an extended operating cycle maintenance strategy. - Extending time between shipyard overhauls from ~ 5 to over 11 Years - Driving Force Economics 8

9 Origins of RCM (Con d) 1976 U.S. Department of Defense contracts with United Airlines to prepare a report on how the airlines develop maintenance programs U.S. Navy begins adapting new maintenance strategy for new Trident Ballistic Missile Submarines to replace Poseidon and Polaris missile subs. - Driving Force Economics Early strategy chosen by Program Office for acquisition proven too costly during projected life cycle for this new class of SSBN 9

10 Seminal Study Issued December 1978 Department of Defense issues a report by F. Stanley Nowlan and Howard Heap in hard-bound book form entitled Reliability-centered Maintenance the term that describes the strategy that is contained in MSG1 & MSG2 10

11 Origins of RCM (Con d) 1980 Air Transport Association (ATA) issues MSG-3 for all airliner designs then in development U.S. Department of Defense Issues DOD Instruction requiring all DOD systems be RCM based. Naval Sea Systems Command Issues RCM Handbook (Subsequently revised in October 1983) Naval Air Systems Command applies RCM principles to all new aircraft designs - most notably the F/A 18 (Blue Angels) 11

12 Driving Forces for RCM in Navy Economies realized 31 Ships included in first group (Missile Subs in Extended Operating Cycle Program ) Operating cycles doubled (between shipyard overhauls) to match reactor core life Savings/cost avoidance of $1.7Billion projected by 1988 (~11% of life cycle maintenance cost) Ship availability increased ~ 15% in life cycle Some ship life cycles able to be extended up to 8 years beyond nominal planned 25 years in service 80+ Attack Subs included in program after 1980 realized $3.5Billion lifecycle Savings/Cost Avoidance 12

13 Origin & History of RCM (Con d) U.S. Navy begins applying Streamlined RCM practices to nuclear powered attack submarines of 637 and 688 Classes, ~ 80 ships. (Hunt for Red October) Driving Force -- Economics - Too many subs to continue with only a 50% increase in operating cycle length - Too few dollars in projected budgets for continuing shipyardbased overhaul maintenance strategy - Success with missile sub program proven to work with no decline in reliability or safety 13

14 Promise of RCM Spreads EPRI Sponsors pilot RCM Projects at two nuclear plants (FP&L - Turkey Point & Duke Power McGuire) (Mac Smith Tom Mattison) Driving Force - Economics RCM first applied to manufacturing and mining facilities in South Africa (J. Moubray). Streamlined RCM applied to surface warfare vessels by U.S. Navy. Driving Force Economics - Reagan Administration Cold War budget competition with Star Wars and build up of Navy to match perceived threat from Soviet Naval Forces 1985 Additional utilities begin RCM Projects. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) looking at ways to use RCM to enhance safety. Driving Force Three Mile Island reactor partial meltdown incident 14

15 U.S. Navy applied Streamlined RCM to new design Seawolf Class attack submarines to align with strategy for older classes and to take advantage of longer life reactor cores requiring fewer (or no) shipyard refueling overhauls

16 Origin & History of RCM (Con d) 1986 U.S. DOD issues MIL STD 2173 detailing the RCM Process to be used for new military systems MSG3 Rev. 1 issued by ATA and subsequently applied to Boeing 777 design J. Moubray s book RCM-II published in UK 1991 USNRC ties Probabilistic Risk Assessment to RCM Safety for application to nuclear plant systems. (NUREG/CR 5695 Issued on this subject Risk Focused Maintenance) EPRI sponsors Streamlined RCM pilot approaches for both nuclear and non-nuclear plant application. 16

17 Origin & History of RCM (Con d) 1992 EPRI issues first version of RCM Workstation Software and RCM Handbook for members of RCM User s Group J. Moubray s Book RCM II - 1 st Edition published in US A. M. Mac Smith s Book Reliability Centered Maintenance published by McGraw-Hill. 17

18 Origin & History of RCM Con d RCM Training for contractors and civil service engineers at all NASA facilities - due to budget crunch - Earlier maintenance strategy of periodic teardown and rebuilding could not be sustained with projected budgets All DOE facilities involved with Uranium enrichment that were mandated by Congress to be split out of DOE to become public company (U.S. Enrichment Corporation USEC) No longer able to count on unlimited budgets from US Government - New organization had to trim spending to attract investors and compete in global marketplace 18

19 Origin and History of RCM Con d 1994 Dofasco (Canadian Steel Producer) adopts RCM-IIbased strategy for its Hot Mill as part of Economic survival strategy. ATA Issues Rev 2 to MSG3 NASA issues RCM Handbook for Johnson Space Center and recommends adoption by all other NASA Facilities Naval Air Systems Command issues Guide 403 concerning RCM for new naval aircraft. DOD abandons military standards and expresses interest in commercial RCM standard to supercede Mil STD

20 Origin and History of RCM Con d Hoechst-Celanese adopts an RCM based approach to Re-engineering the maintenance programs of seven plants in southeast U.S. Owners threaten sale or closure if not successful in bringing down operating costs U.S. Navy has to re-educate Naval Engineers on RCM Rules, Tools & Schools 1997 John Moubray s revised RCM II book notes RCM having been introduced at over 1000 facilities of all types world-wide RCM II considered the most rigorous approach to RCM Super-Classical RCM 20

21 Evolution of SAE RCM Standard 1997 SAE Committee begins meeting to initiate development of standard for RCM DOD members participate along with many from commercial industries SAE Committee finishes draft RCM Standard J SAE ratifies vote to issue RCM Standard J1011 & DOD adopts it for use by all services. Followed later by companion Standard J1012

22 Origin and History of RCM Con d Mac Smith s and Glen Hinchcliffe s book RCM: Gateway to World Class Maintenance published 2006 Neil Bloom s book Reliability Centered Maintenance- Implementation made simple published 2007 RCM Project Manager s Guide developed using RCM Scorecard (2005) as a basis (Free download from Reliabilityweb.com) 22

23 RCM Hierarchy Super-Classical RCM Most Rigorous & Most Costly Classical RCM (Baseline) RCM Variant Faster & Less Costly RCM Derivative Least Rigorous Fastest, Least Costly

24 Classical RCM & Some RCM Variations Classical RCM RCM II Blitz RCM or RCM Blitz TM Value Based TM RCM Risk Focused Maintenance Facilitated or Analyst Based RCM RCM Turbo Eighty-Twenty RCM Abbreviated Classical RCM Streamlined RCM & SRCM TM Profit Centered Maintenance PM & PdM Conversion Experience Centered Maintenance (ECM) RCMCost or RCM Cost Many Others

25 Best Practice Risk Reduction Strategies for WWT Process Systems Pareto Chart (Above) Depicts Number of Failures by System (Identification Code) in a Plant 80/20 Systems Bad Actors 20/80 Systems Better to Well Behaved Systems RCM Function Driven All Likely Failure Modes Analyzed Applicable & Most Cost- Effective Tasks Implemented ECM Data Driven Analysis by ECM Team Existing PM/PDM Results and Historical CM s Analyzed for Validation, Change or Addition of Failure Mitigating Tasks RCA RTI Qualitative O&M Subject Matter Expert Team Identifies Potential Show Stoppers Using 7 Risk Criteria Performed on systems upon which ECM not yet done Regulatory, Safety, Cost, Production, Labor/Time Goal Oriented Cause & Effect & Process Analysis by Team Done When Cause(s) Uncertain Defect Elimination Repeat Failures from Known Unreliable Parts and/or Practices Raw Materials, Operations, Workmanship, Design, Collateral Damage Examined as Needed

26 Risk Threshold Investigations Asks: What is the Probability (remote though it may be) that there are one or more Failure Modes that under the right circumstances could occur and produce a serious or catastrophic event? Employs a qualitative methodology Internal O & M Team conducts investigation in ~1/2 to 1 Day Done while awaiting RCM or ECM Analysis

27 Risk Threshold Investigations Defines seven Risk Criteria Personnel safety Environmental threats Forced downtime due to (unplanned) outage Reduction in throughput below design capacity Environmental regulation violations Single point failures that cause complete shutdown because of lack of backup Economic factors

28 Reliability and Safety Relationship If executives were truly committed to safety They would be committed to reliability, and would have similar policies, standards, processes, and systems They typically are not, and do not Consider a typical sampling of the data Source : Ron Moore - Used with Permission 28

29 OEE/AU- % of Base Injury Rate v. AU/OEE Over Time - Company A (Nakajima) R = 0.80 R 2 = Injury Rate Month OEE/AU 29

30 Total Injuries per Year Correlation of Corrective & Reactive Work Orders with Injury Rate Plant No R = R 2 =

31 Total Injuries per Year Correlation of PM & PdM Work Orders with Injury Rate Plant No R = R 2 =

32 Injury Rate (normalized to a base number) The More Disciplined Your Maintenance, the Fewer Injuries You Have 5 4 R = 0.95 R 2 =

33 Environmental Incidents/yr And, a Reliable Plant is Environmentally Sound Asset Utilization vs. Environmental Incidents - Plant B

34 Asset Utilization (AU) or OEE And, is More Productive - AU/OEE vs. Reactive Maintenance Slope= Reactive Maintenance % 34

35 Production Costs $/Unit And, is More Cost Effective - Reliability Index v. Production Unit Costs (As reliability increases, costs decrease) R = R 2 =

36 Best Practice Risk Reduction Strategies for WWT Process Systems Pareto Chart (Above) Depicts Number of Failures by System (Identification Code) in a Plant 80/20 Systems Bad Actors 20/80 Systems Better to Well Behaved Systems RCM Function Driven All Likely Failure Modes Analyzed Applicable & Most Cost- Effective Tasks Implemented ECM Data Driven Analysis by ECM Team Existing PM/PDM Results and Historical CM s Analyzed for Validation, Change or Addition of Failure Mitigating Tasks RCA RTI Qualitative O&M Subject Matter Expert Team Identifies Potential Show Stoppers Using 7 Risk Criteria Performed on systems upon which ECM not yet done Regulatory, Safety, Cost, Production, Labor/Time Goal Oriented Cause & Effect & Process Analysis by Team Done When Cause(s) Uncertain Defect Elimination Repeat Failures from Known Unreliable Parts and/or Practices Raw Materials, Operations, Workmanship, Design, Collateral Damage Examined as Needed

37 Defect Elimination Concentrating efforts on fixing repetitive failures and permanently correcting poor work and operating practices can have a dramatic effect in a short period of time Set a goal of defect elimination by attacking only 1% of reasons for corrective maintenance work orders per year

38 Defect Elimination Novelette by Winston P. Ledet Winston J. Ledet & Sherri M. Abshire is worth your time Winston is originator of the Manufacturing Game and the Defect Elimination Game

39 The Single Most Important Thing You Can Do to Improve Reliability?

40 Infant Mortality Failure Profile Dominant failure profile in commercial aircraft studies Progressively lower in 1980 s & 1990 s Statistics are 68%, 66%, 29%, 6% for the 4 studies cited How do you drive this percentage down? 1980 s- Ref: JRN

41 Single Most Important Thing Many operations, maintenance and reliability professionals as well as managers in other departments of many organizations are in search of the key methodology, technique or principle that will assure success in pursuit of their missions. Nothing has been more effective than the use of written procedures supported by an active program of continuous improvement, reward and reinforcement. No lean, reliability centered, totally productive, quality assured (pick your favorite description) approach can achieve permanent, long term success without being thoroughly documented with up-to-date, living procedures. Williamson

42 Procedure Based Organizations Organizations that have embraced the idea of being procedure-based have learned: That it is far easier to avoid human error in operations, maintenance and other key business processes You must instill, constantly add to, improve and reinforce best practices leading to high asset reliability, safer working conditions, better job security and a more satisfied, confident and competent work force.

43 Single Most Important Thing to Assure Reliability Good procedures assure precision in Operations and Maintenance Precision results from elimination of human error Elimination of human error results in better reliability Better reliability results in better personnel safety

44 Infant Failure Reduction Over Time Ref: JRN

45 Single Most Important Thing to Assure Reliability - Conclusions RCM (Classical or Super-classical) still the most effective methodology for determining what maintenance to perform on critical systems Probably applicable to ~20% of systems RCM Variant or Derivative good for the 80% Both of the above must focus on nonintrusive tasks identification Implementation, not analysis, continues to be the biggest problem with RCM

46 Single Most Important Thing to Assure Reliability - Conclusions Risk Threshold Investigation is a good interim measure while waiting for RCM analysis resources Defect Elimination on 1% of CM WO s done by mill deck personnel will bring the earliest payback and biggest payoff Use Root Cause Analysis when unsure what (multiple factors) caused failure

47 Single Most Important Thing to Assure Reliability - Conclusions BUT: The single most important thing you can do to assure reliability is to focus on continuous improvement in your operating and maintenance procedures!