ASDA 2014 Scientific Seminar ATM Exploratory Research Tournament

Transcription

1 ASDA 2014 Scientific Seminar ATM Exploratory Research Tournament ATM Business continuity: How to target business continuity in contingency phase, understanding the link between complex failure modes and the new complex technologies

2 Resilience engineering: let s steal something from EUROCONTROL Keypoints Resilience: the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. Performance variability: the ways in which individual and collective performances are adjusted to match current demands and resources, in order to ensure that things go right. Business continuity: management practices that support organizations during disaster recovery of unexpected risks, particularly rare and with high magnitudes, where the operations must be carried out with the utmost speed and effectiveness.

3 Where we started 1 2 Swiss Cheese model: - clear - easy to understand - even easier to apply - evocative Iceberg of safety: - clear - easy to understand - even easier to apply - evocative

4 Where we would like to go Is there any methodology or any way of representing and treat Resilience, Performace Variability and Business Continuity? FRAM Functional Resonance Assessment Method (always to write down, never remember!) Someone might say: «FRAM is complex!» Specialists could reply: «ATM is complex!» I d say: «Wasn t ATM complex before FRAM?» The same specialists: «ehm Resilience and Business Continuity are complex!» I d say: «more complex than managing a complex system like ATM? They re just a part of it» Don t you agree that: - we still need an idea to represent and manage Resilience and blablabla? - Swiss Cheese and Iceberg of Safety key features are winning?

5 From the basics Stability Theory (2D Mechanical Equilibrium) Stable Equilibrium Unstable Equilibrium Neutral Equilibrium Resilience, Performance Variability and Business Continuity are strictly related to the concept of EQUILIBRIUM (to maintain or to recover) Let s try to figure out a model capable of combining these issues

6 The proposition Di Gravio s stability model! (you can clap your hands now) ATM SYSTEM DEGRADATION STATE STANDARD DEGRADATED CRITICAL SYSTEM FAILURE actual state ATM system profile external risks

7 Some examples to understand STANDARD DEGRADATED Resilience: ATM system is in a neutral equilibrium until the push of the event leaves the actual state in standard conditions Performance variability: the relative length of the bars represents the sensibility of the ATM system to the events

8 The complete model With no defences: The risk impact determines safety conditions. The greater the risk, the unsafer the system Risk 1 The system remains in standard condtions STANDARD DEGRADATED CRITICAL SYSTEM FAILURE

9 The complete model With no defences: The risk impact determines safety conditions. The greater the risk, the unsafer the system Risk 2 (greater) The system falls in degradated conditions STANDARD DEGRADATED CRITICAL SYSTEM FAILURE

10 The complete model With no defences: The risk impact determines safety conditions. The greater the risk, the unsafer the system Risk 3 (even greater) System failure STANDARD DEGRADATED CRITICAL SYSTEM FAILURE

11 The complete model Business continuity: raising barriers (as for Swiss Cheese model) supports the equilibrium of the ATM system to remain stable or nautral (resilience of the system), avoiding its degradation Risk 3 (even greater) ATM SYSTEM DEGRADATION STATE STANDARD DEGRADATED CRITICAL Preventive, protective and proactive actions SYSTEM FAILURE

12 The complete model Business continuity: raising barriers (as for Swiss Cheese model) supports the equilibrium of the ATM system to remain stable or nautral (resilience of the system), avoiding its degradation at any level STANDARD DEGRADATED CRITICAL SYSTEM FAILURE

13 Conclusions to recap on the Stability model (still under construction) It is able to represent ATM system, external forces and internal actions in terms of resilience in an a figurative and intuitive way (but you can develop differential equations to quantify profiles, actions and forces, just ask physics ) It respects Business Continuity principles: the nature of risks is unpredictable, set interventions and barriers to recover or avoid damages, nevertheless their sources It drives specialists to compare risks and mitigations, trying to set the interventions to protect or recover a determined level of impact, giving a sense of predictability to the consequences (if not to the events)