Prepared by: Candice A. Churchwell, Senior Consultant Aimee C. Savage, Project Analyst. June 17, 2014 CALMAC ID SCE0350

Transcription

1 Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company Submied o Souhern California Edison Co. Submied by Nexan, Inc. June 17, 2014 CALMAC ID SCE0350 Prepared by: Candice A. Churchwell, Senior Consulan Aimee C. Savage, Projec Analys

2 Table of Conens 1 Inroducion Overview of Demand Response Programs Emergency Programs Base Inerrupible Program Agriculural and Pumping Inerrupible Program Price-responsive Programs Summer Discoun Plan Commercial Summer Discoun Plan Residenial Criical Peak Pricing Demand Bidding Program Demand Response Aggregaor-managed Programs Capaciy Bidding Program Demand Response Conracs SmarConnec -enabled Programs Non-even Based Programs Program Enrollmen Mehodology Selecion of 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 Weaher Years Overview of Evaluaion Mehods Program Specific Analysis Mehods Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes Summary of 2013 Evens Even Averages by Program Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes Projeced Change in Porfolio Load Impacs from Porfolio Aggregae Load Impacs by Monh Porfolio Load Impacs by Program Type Porfolio Load Impacs by Program Recommendaions Emergency Programs Price-responsive Programs Aggregaor-managed Programs Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company i

3 6.4 SmarConnec -enabled Programs Non-even Based Programs Appendix A Regression Specificaions A.1 Base Inerrupible Program A.2 Agriculural and Pumping Inerrupible Program A.3 Summer Discoun Plan Commercial A.4 Summer Discoun Plan Residenial A.5 Criical Peak Pricing A.6 Demand Bidding Program A.7 Capaciy Bidding Program and Demand Response Conracs A.8 Save Power Day A.9 Real-ime Pricing Appendix B Porfolio Aggregae Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes for 1-in-2 Sysem Condiions by Monh and Forecas Year Appendix C Porfolio Aggregae Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes for 1-in-10 Sysem Condiions by Monh and Forecas Year Appendix D Program Specific Aggregae Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes for 1-in-2 Sysem Condiions by Monh and Forecas Year Appendix E Program Specific Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes for 1-in-10 Sysem Condiions by Monh and Forecas Year Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company ii

4 Inroducion 1 Inroducion This repor summarizes he load reducion capabiliy from Souhern California Edison s (SCE) porfolio of Demand Response (DR) programs. I deails he load impacs from 2013 evens (ex pos load impacs) and load reducion capabiliies for 2014 hrough 2024 under 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 sysem condiions (ex ane load impacs). This repor adheres o he April 8, 2010 decision by he California Public Uiliies Commission (CPUC) ha requires a DR porfolio summary and specifies he forma and conen of he summary. 1 The 13 DR resources lised in Table 1-1 are summarized in his repor. Two programs lised in he CPUC decision are no included in his repor. Opional Binding Mandaory Curailmen (OBMC) is a program of las resor, riggered immediaely prior o rolling blackous and is no considered a DR program by SCE. The Scheduled Load Reducion Program (SLRP) is also no included because here are no paricipans in he program and no enrollmens are projeced. Table 1-1: Summary of Programs and Caegorizaion Emergency Price-responsive Demand Response Aggregaormanaged SmarConnec enabled Non-even Based Base Inerrupible Program wih 15- minue advance noice (BIP-15) Summer Discoun Plan - Commercial (SDP-C) Capaciy Bidding Program wih Dayahead Noificaion (CBP-DA) Save Power Day (SPD) Real-ime Pricing (RTP) Base Inerrupible Program wih 30- minue advance noice (BIP-30) Summer Discoun Plan - Residenial (SDP-R) Capaciy Bidding Program wih Day-of Noificaion (CBP-DO) Agriculural and Pumping Inerrupible Program (AP-I) Defaul Criical Peak Pricing (CPP) Aggregaor Demand Response Conracs wih Day-ahead Noificaion (DRC-DA) Demand Bidding Program (DBP) Aggregaor Demand Response Conracs wih Day-of Noificaion (DRC-DO) 1 D Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 1

5 Inroducion This repor summarizes he 2013 program evaluaions for all of SCE s oher DR resources, filed wih he CPUC by SCE on April 1, 2013 in accordance wih he Load Impac Proocols. Specifically, he conens of he following repors are summarized: George, Schellenberg, C. Harmann and Deck. Load Impac Esimaes for SCE s Demand Response Programs: Agriculural and Pumping Inerrupible Program, Real Time Pricing. Final Repor. April 1, George, Churchwell and Oh Load Impac Evaluaion of California s Saewide Base Inerrupible Program. Final Repor. April 1, Bode, Churchwell and Blundell California Saewide Non-residenial Criical Peak Pricing Evaluaion. Final Repor. April 1, Braihwai, Hansen and Armsrong Saewide Load Impac Evaluaion of California Aggregaor Demand Response Programs Volume 1: Ex Pos and Ex Ane Load Impacs. Final Repor. April 1, Hansen, Braihwai, Armsrong and Hilbrink Load Impac Evaluaion of California Saewide Demand Bidding Programs (DBP) for Non-residenial Cusomers: Ex Pos and Ex Ane Repor. Final Repor. April 1, George, Schellenberg and Blundell Load Impac Evaluaion of Souhern California Edison s Peak Time Rebae Program. Final Repor. April 1, Wikler, Seele-Mosey and Ward Revised Load Impac Evaluaion of Souhern California Edison s Residenial and Commercial Summer Discoun Plan (SDP) Programs. Final Repor. June 9, Ex pos resuls are summarized for all programs ha experienced an even in 2013, or for hose programs ha are no even-based, were in effec in Ex pos load impacs deermine wha happened over some hisorical period, based on he condiions ha were in effec during ha ime. Because hisorical performance is ied o pas condiions such as weaher, price levels and dispach sraegy (e.g., localized dispaches), ex pos load impacs may no reflec he full opion value of a DR resource. Ex ane load impacs are summarized for each program and for SCE s DR porfolio as a whole. Porfolio impacs summarize he load reducion ha can be expeced from all of SCE s DR programs if joinly dispached. In oher words, hey avoid double couning of load impacs from dually enrolled cusomers. Ex ane load impacs are forward-looking and are designed o reflec he load reducion capabiliy of a DR resource under a sandard se of condiions ha mach he marke and sysem condiions ha drive he need for invesing in addiional capaciy 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 sysem peaking condiions. This repor begins wih a descripion of SCE's DR programs repored on in his execuive summary, including curren program enrollmen and forecas enrollmens ha are linked o ex ane impacs. The program overview secion is followed by a summary of he mehods employed in analyzing he ex pos and ex ane load impacs for each program. The nex wo secions summarize he ex pos and ex ane resuls for each program as well as he porfolio of programs collecively. The final secion summarizes he recommendaions from he 2013 program evaluaions. Appendix A describes he regression specificaions ha were used in modeling cusomer load for each program evaluaion. Appendix B Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 2

6 Inroducion hrough Appendix E conain all of he ex ane load impac esimaes ha mus be included in his porfolio summary. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 3

7 Overview of Demand Response Programs 2 Overview of Demand Response Programs SCE's curren programs can be assigned o one of five caegories: emergency; price-responsive; demand response aggregaor-managed; SmarConnec -enabled programs; and non-even based. In general, emergency programs are called when operaing reserves are limied, eiher immediaely prior o or during sysem emergencies. Price responsive programs can be called based on marke condiions defined by marke prices, generaor hea raes, emperaure or oher indicaors. In aggregaormanaged programs, aggregaors conrac wih commercial and indusrial cusomers and assis hem in delivering load reducion. Each aggregaor forms a porfolio of individual cusomer accouns and nominaes specific accouns for eiher an exising DR program such as he Capaciy Bidding Program or for meeing conracual load reducion obligaions. Non-even based programs are no dispachable, bu provide incenives for cusomers o shif or reduce loads during peak periods hrough eiher imevarying prices or explici incenives. SmarConnec -enabled programs refer o programs ha are ied o SCE's rollou of smar meers. 2.1 Emergency Programs Emergency programs are called when operaing reserves are limied, eiher immediaely prior o or during sysem emergencies Base Inerrupible Program Each of California s hree major invesor-owned uiliies (IOUs), including SCE, offer he Base Inerrupible Program (BIP). BIP is a ariff-based, emergency-riggered demand response program ha CAISO can dispach for sysem emergencies. The IOUs can also dispach BIP for local emergencies or on a es even basis o verify he program s load reducion capabiliy. The program can be dispached boh for insances when elecriciy sysem demand approaches insalled generaion capaciy a resource shorage or in response o emergencies due o ransmission and generaion ouages. Cusomers enrolled in BIP receive incenive paymens in exchange for commiing o reduce heir elecriciy usage o a conracually-esablished level referred o as he firm service level (FSL). Paricipans who fail o reduce load o he FSL are subjec o a financial penaly assessed on a kw per hour basis. BIP a SCE differeniaes paymen levels based on he iming of he advance noificaion provided. Cusomers can commi o providing load wihin 15- or 30-minues of noificaion. The load impacs for boh opions are summarized in his repor Agriculural and Pumping Inerrupible Program The Agriculural and Pumping Inerrupible (AP-I) program provides a monhly credi o eligible agriculural and pumping cusomers for allowing SCE o emporarily inerrup elecric service o heir pumping equipmen during CAISO or oher sysem emergencies. Agriculural and pumping cusomers wih a measured demand of 37 kw or greaer, or wih a leas 50 horsepower of conneced load per service accoun, are eligible o paricipae in he AP-I program. Paricipaing cusomers mus already be served under an agriculural and pumping rae schedule. When an inerrupion is deemed necessary and is allowed under he erms of he ariff, SCE sends a signal o he load conrol device insalled on a Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 4

8 Overview of Demand Response Programs cusomer s pumping equipmen. The signal auomaically urns off he equipmen for he enire duraion of he inerrupion even. The number of inerrupions canno exceed one per day, four per week and 25 per calendar year. The duraion of an inerrupion canno exceed 6 hours and he oal hours of inerrupion canno exceed 40 per calendar monh or 150 per calendar year. In exchange for allowing SCE o inerrup pumping service during emergencies, AP-I cusomers receive a monhly credi. For cusomers on ime-of-use (TOU) raes, he credi is based on measured peak and mid-peak elecriciy consumpion. For cusomers ha are no on a TOU rae, he credi is based on monhly consumpion. 2.2 Price-responsive Programs The disinguishing feaure of price-responsive programs is ha hey are dispached based on economic crieria raher han solely for emergency condiions. SCE has he opion of dispaching hese programs when minimum condiions defined by marke prices, generaion hea raes, emperaure and oher marke indicaors are me Summer Discoun Plan Commercial The Summer Discoun Plan Commercial (SDP-C) is a cenral air condiioning (CAC) direc load conrol program for commercial cusomers. SCE began o operae SDP-C as a price-responsive program, raher han an emergency program, in During high sysem peak hours or emergency condiions, a signal is sen o conrol devices ha limi he operaion of he compressor in he CAC uni. Paricipans can elec he degree of load conrol he cycling sraegy. The basic plan allows SCE o conrol CAC unis up o nine minues of every half hour, for up o six hours a day. Anoher plan offers CAC conrol up o 15 minues of every half hour, for up o six hours a day. A hird plan offers complee CAC curailmen for up o six hours a day. All plans are limied o 180 even hours per calendar year. The load impacs and enrollmen forecass in his repor are summarized across all opions of he program for commercial cusomers Summer Discoun Plan Residenial The Summer Discoun Plan Residenial (SDP-R) program is a CAC direc load conrol program for residenial cusomers. SCE began o operae SDP-R as a price-responsive program, raher han an emergency program, in During high sysem peak hours, a signal is sen o conrol devices ha limi he operaion of he compressor in he air condiioner. The program is available year round and for all hours of he day. I can be dispached up o 180 hours per year per paricipan. For any given day, CAC unis can only be conrolled up o six hours a day for normal operaions, bu can be conrolled for a longer period, if needed, under emergency condiions. As wih he SDP Commercial program, paricipans can elec he degree of load conrol, ha is, he cycling sraegy. They also have he opion of using a cycling device equipped wih cusomer override capabiliy, in exchange for receiving a lower program incenive. Cusomers ha elec he override capabiliy can override up o five SDP even days per calendar year for each load conrol device by physically accessing he device on he air condiioning compressor. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 5

9 Overview of Demand Response Programs Criical Peak Pricing Criical Peak Pricing (CPP) is a dynamic pricing program for commercial and indusrial cusomers. In 2010, SCE's large cusomers over 200 kw were defauled ono CPP. Under he defaul CPP rae, higher prices on criical peak days are offse by a reducion in off-peak prices, demand charges or boh. SCE has a 2 o 6 PM even window on CPP days and only calls evens on non-holiday summer weekdays. SCE is commied o a minimum of nine evens and a maximum of 15 evens each year. In 2013, only large cusomers wih peak demands exceeding 200 kw received service under CPP excep for some volunary small and medium business cusomers Demand Bidding Program The Demand Bidding Program (DBP) is a volunary demand buy-back program ha provides enrolled cusomers wih he opporuniy o receive financial incenives as paymen for load reducions on even days. The program is designed o allow commercial and indusrial faciliies o provide load reducion wihou firm commimens or paricipan risk. Because a firm commimen is no required, paricipans can decide wheher or no o bid in load reducion on an even-by-even basis. As such, he mix of even paricipans (versus enrollmen) and magniude of load reducion may vary from even-o-even. 2.3 Demand Response Aggregaor-managed Programs Technically, aggregaor-managed programs are also price-responsive resources, bu hey are given a separae caegory because cusomers ypically are no direcly enrolled wih he uiliy. In aggregaor-managed programs, aggregaors conrac wih commercial and indusrial cusomers and assis hem in delivering load reducion. Each aggregaor forms a porfolio of individual cusomer accouns and nominaes specific accouns for eiher an exising demand response program such as he Capaciy Bidding Program (CBP) or for meeing conracual load reducion obligaions. The aggregaor assumes responsibiliy for managing relaionships wih individual cusomers, arranging for load reducions on even days, receiving incenive paymens and paying penalies (if warraned) o he uiliy. SCE currenly has wo aggregaor managed programs: CBP and Demand Response Conracs (DRC) Capaciy Bidding Program CBP is a saewide program ha provides aggregaors wih monhly capaciy paymens, paid on a per kw basis, based on load reducion commimens for each monh, plus addiional energy paymens, paid on a per kwh basis, based on acual elecriciy demand reducions during evens. Each monh, aggregaors may adjus he nominaed load reducion, he mix of cusomers ha provide load reducion and even opions (e.g., day-ahead or day-of evens, and four-hour, six-hour or eigh-hour even lenghs). CBP evens may be called on non-holiday weekdays in he monhs of May hrough Ocober, beween he hours of 11 AM and 7 PM. CBP day-ahead (CBP-DA) and day-of (CBP-DO) resources are summarized separaely in his repor Demand Response Conracs DRC is very similar o he CBP program. The primary difference is ha he conracs are individually negoiaed and span a longer period of ime over which load reducion resources ramp up o conracual levels. Like CBP, aggregaors conrac wih commercial and indusrial cusomers o ac on heir behalf Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 6

10 Overview of Demand Response Programs wih respec o all aspecs of he program, including receiving noices from he uiliy, arranging for load reducions on even days, receiving incenive paymens and paying penalies o he uiliy (if warraned). Each aggregaor forms a porfolio of individual cusomer accouns so ha heir aggregaed load paricipaes in he DR programs and penaly risk is miigaed. DRC day-ahead (DRC-DA) and (DRC-DO) day-of resources are summarized separaely in his repor. 2.4 SmarConnec -enabled Programs This repor also provides ex pos and ex ane load impac esimaes for one program in he SmarConnec -enabled caegory, which is a segmen of demand response programs ied o SCE's rollou of smar meers. Save Power Day (SPD) is a peak ime rebae program for residenial cusomers. In 2012, residenial cusomers wih smar meers were defauled ono SPD. Cusomers on he program receive a rebae for reducing load during peak periods when evens are called. Cusomers who do no reduce load during peak periods when evens are called are neiher rewarded nor penalized. 2.5 Non-even Based Programs Non-even based programs are no dispachable, bu provide load reducion or load shifing on a daily basis. They provide incenives for cusomers o shif or reduce loads during peak periods hrough eiher ime-varying prices or explici incenives. One non-even based program, Real-ime Pricing (RTP), is summarized in his repor. RTP is a dynamic pricing ariff ha charges paricipans for he elecriciy hey consume based on hourly prices ha vary according o day ype and emperaure. I aemps o incorporae ime-varying componens of energy coss and generaion capaciy coss. The RTP ariff consiss of nine hourly pricing profiles ha vary by season, day ype and daily maximum emperaure as measured by he Los Angeles Civic Cener weaher saion. The ariff is available o large commercial and indusrial cusomers. Because he rae schedules are linked o variaion in weaher, paricipans experience higher prices on hoer days and a greaer number of high-price days during exreme weaher years han in normal weaher years. 2.6 Program Enrollmen Table 2-1 summarizes he SCE DR enrollmen forecass for 2014 hrough 2024 repored a he porfolio level. All aggregaor programs show seady enrollmens hroughou he forecas horizon. The remaining programs are forecas o experience small drops in enrollmen in 2015, ranging from one o five percen, bu o hold seady hereafer. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 7

11 Overview of Demand Response Programs Table 2-1: SCE DR Porfolio Projeced Enrollmens for by Program (Values reflec expeced enrollmen in Augus) Forecas Year Program Type Program Emergency Price-responsive Demand Response Aggregaor-managed* BIP BIP AP-I 1,099 1,083 1,083 1,083 1,083 SDP-C 12,805 12,730 12,730 12,730 12,730 SDP-R 309, , , , ,020 CPP 3,013 2,965 2,965 2,965 2,965 DBP CBP-DA CBP-DO DRC-DA DRC-DO 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 1,125 SmarConnec -enabled SPD 170, , , , ,257 Non-even Based RTP Porfolio Toal 499, , , , ,574 *Enrollmens for CBP and DRC reflec nominaed accouns Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 8

12 Mehodology 3 Mehodology The 2013 evaluaions address wo main quesions for DR programs: wha demand reducions were delivered when resources were dispached in 2013; and, wha is he load reducion capabiliy of each DR program? Ex pos impacs reflec he demand reducions aained during acual evens, bu do no necessarily reflec he load reducion capabiliy of he DR program. Hisorical ex pos resuls are ied o specific condiions ha occurred for ha given even, including weaher condiions, he number of paricipans who were dispached, he mix of cusomers and oher facors such as swich failure raes. Several programs are dispached sraegically o address congesion in specific zones, es load response capabiliies or for economic reasons. Due o he absence of exreme weaher or sysem emergencies in 2013, emergency resources such as BIP were only dispached o es load reducion capabiliies. Oher resources, such as SDP Residenial were only dispached in full once. In he case of SDP Residenial, specific regions were dispached raher han he enire program for each even. In addiion, he iming and duraion of he dispach varied across even days for many programs. As a resul, he impacs for individual even days are no necessarily represenaive of he full program capabiliy. Ex ane impacs reflec he load reducion capabiliy of a DR program for each monh under a sandard se of 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 weaher condiions. They reflec he reducion ha can be aained if all enrolled paricipans are dispached under he weaher condiions ha drive sysem planning. Whenever possible, ex ane load impacs are grounded in analysis of hisorical load impac performance. These esimaes are used in assessing alernaives for meeing peak demand, cos-effeciveness comparisons and long-erm planning. Figure 3-1 shows he connecion beween ex pos load impacs, ex ane impacs, cos-effeciveness analysis and resource planning. Analysis of hisorical program daa is hen employed o produce ex ane load impac esimaes ha are subsequenly used for resource adequacy, cos-effeciveness assessmen and, by connecion, resource planning. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 9

13 Mehodology Figure 3-1: Summary of Ex Pos and Ex Ane Analysis Process and Connecions Evaluaion planning/ goals Ex-pos load impacs DR coss DSM alernaives Inerval daa (sample or populaion) -Even days -Weaher -Paricipan characerisics Saisical Analysis of hisorical daa Mehodology -Regression -Day maching - Oher Adjusmens Day Types 1-in-2 weaher year 1-in-10 weaher year Avg. weekday by monh Monhly sysem peak day Weaher Paricipan characerisics Oher e.g. swich failures Ex-ane impac esimaes 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 -Weaher daa - Sysem Load Daa - Day rais Cos- Effeciveness Tess DR benefis Comparison wih oher resources Generaion alernaives Measuremen & Verificaion Sudies Paricipaion Forecass 3.1 Selecion of 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 Weaher Years The selecion of 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 weaher years was he same as in prior demand response load impac evaluaions a SCE, including he 2013 load impac evaluaions. In order o beer align he weaher wih he primary applicaions of he load impac esimaes long-erm planning, resources adequacy and cos-effeciveness he selecion of he 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 monhly sysem peak weaher condiions was based on an analysis of recen sysem load daa and 20 years of weaher daa from 25 weaher saions locaed hroughou he SCE erriory. The process consised of he following seps: Develop a demand model ha esimaes sysem load (using recen sysem load daa) as a funcion of weaher condiions, hour of day and seasonal facors; Predic he sysem load using he 20 years of hisorical weaher condiions; Idenify he days on which monhly sysem peak loads were esimaed for each monh of each year; Rank he monhly sysem peak load for each monh; Idenify he 50h and he 90h percenile monhly sysem peaks (i.e., 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 weaher year condiions); and Selec he weaher associaed wih he seleced monhly peak days as he 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 year weaher condiions. The analysis relied on a demand model raher han on hisorical sysem peak daa for several reasons. Cenral air condiioning sauraion, populaion ceners, indusry, building and appliance codes changed Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 10

14 Mehodology subsanially over he 20-year span. By relying on a sysem demand model, demand esimaes given curren drivers of sysem load and known hisorical weaher variaion were produced. The ime span includes a diverse se of weaher condiions, enabling he predicion of sysem load for exreme weaher condiions. Once developed, he demand model was applied o he hisorical weaher for he 20-year ime span in order o idenify exreme and normal condiions for monhly sysem peaks. 3.2 Overview of Evaluaion Mehods The mehods used o esimae ex pos and ex ane load impacs for each of he DR programs in he SCE porfolio are concepually similar. Each of he 2013 evaluaions relied, or parially relied on, regression analysis o esimae a model reflecing he relaionship beween cusomer whole-premise or end-use load and key deerminans of he variaion in energy use over ime, such as weaher and ime-of-day, day-of-week and seasonal paerns ha reflec he normal paern of business or household operaions. In some cases, a mached conrol group was used o esimae reference load for he purpose of deriving load impacs. Here, load is no modeled as a funcion of weaher and ime-of-day for he purpose of deermining reference load; reference load for he reamen group is simply he observed load of he conrol group, minus he small difference beween reamen and conrol loads observed on non-even days. However, reference load models are sill required even in his seing for he purpose of ex ane load impac esimaion. Regression models are based on hisorical hourly or sub-hourly elecriciy use daa for cusomers who have paricipaed in he DR programs. Each model or se of models is used o esimae he reference load for an average cusomer enrolled in a program, which represens wha cusomers would be expeced o use in he absence of an even on days in which program evens eiher were called (for ex pos impac esimaion) or have a high probabiliy of being called (for ex ane impac esimaion). For he single non-even based program (RTP), he mehods were slighly differen. RTP reference loads represen wha he average cusomer would use on a specific day if hey faced he oherwise applicable ariff, TOU-8, raher han he RTP ariff. In mos insances, ex pos load impacs were esimaed by comparing he reference level energy use in each hour wih he esimaed load wih DR in he hour on each even day. For ex ane esimaion, prediced energy use in each hour was esimaed under he assumpion ha an even occurred and also under he assumpion ha i did no occur, while everyhing else (e.g., weaher, day-of-week effecs) was held consan a values represenaive of a ypical even day or monhly sysem peak day. A a more echnical level, hree general approaches were used o esimae he regression models: Individual Cusomer Time Series Regressions: This mehod works well for even-based programs wih numerous evens and for programs wih subsanial variaion in he drivers of load response or load shifing. This approach is also useful for programs wih subsanial differences in he magniude and load paerns of cusomers, which is more ypical among large cusomers. The coefficiens vary a he cusomer level. While he regressions do no necessarily explain individual cusomer behavior perfecly, in aggregae, hey explain mos of he program level variaion in loads. Imporanly, individual cusomer regressions can be employed o describe he disribuion of cusomer load reducions as well as he disribuion of percen load reducions. They can also be used o describe impacs for segmens of he paricipan Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 11

15 Mehodology populaion. The key limiaion o individual cusomer regressions is heir inabiliy o make use of conrol groups. Aggregae Time Series Regressions: Similar o he individual cusomer regression approach, bu raher han esimaing reference loads and load impacs for individual cusomers, esimaes are made for groups of cusomers aken in aggregae. Panel Regressions: This mehod is paricularly suiable when conrol groups are available, or sample sizes are sufficien for he erriory, bu inadequae for smaller segmens such as local capaciy areas. A key srengh of panel regressions is he abiliy o conrol for cerain omied or unobservable variables. 2 While panel regressions can increase he accuracy of impac esimaes for he average cusomer, hey canno be employed o describe he disribuion of impacs among he paricipan populaion. Imporanly, panel regressions canno conrol for cusomer characerisics ha inerac wih occupancy and or weaher unless hose variables are explicily included. The regression models used o predic he reference load were developed wih he primary goal of accuraely predicing average cusomer load given he ime of day, day of week, emperaure and locaion of each cusomer and predicing load reducions under differen emperaure condiions. The focus was on he accuracy of he predicion and he validiy of load impac esimaes. The regression equaions used o model load paerns and esimae load impacs for each program are deailed in Appendix A. 3.3 Program Specific Analysis Mehods Table 3-1 summarizes he analysis mehodology for each program. I describes he general approach used for load impac esimaion and deails any key assumpions required in he analysis. The specific mehodology chosen for each program was based on he available daa, even dispach paerns and he srenghs and weakness of each available analysis approach. 2 Panel regressions can accoun for omied variables ha are unique o cusomers and relaively ime invarian over he analysis ime frame (fixed effecs) such as household income. Panel regressions can also accoun for omied variables ha are common across he paricipan populaion bu unique o specific ime periods (ime effecs). They canno, however, accoun for omied variables ha vary boh by paricipan and by ime period or for household characerisics (e.g., cenral air condiioning) ha inerac wih variables ha vary over ime, such as weaher and occupancy. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 12

16 Mehodology Table 3-1: Summary of Analysis Mehodologies by Program Program Mehod Evaluaion Descripion Key Assumpions Baseline Inerrupible Program (BIP-15 and BIP-30) Regression models - individual cusomer Individual load paerns were modeled using hourly daa from for all paricipans wih available daa. Ex ane impacs were esimaed as he reference load under 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 sysem peak condiions minus he firm service level, wih adjusmens based on hisorical over or under performance. Cusomers will coninue o perform relaive o heir FSL in he fuure as hey have in he pas Paricipan load is expeced o increase 1.5% annually hrough 2014 Enrollmen growh is expeced o decrease slighly Agriculural Pumping Inerrupible Program (AP-I) Summer Discoun Plan - Commercial (SDP-C) Regression models - individual cusomer Regression models - individual cusomer Agriculural pump loads were modeled as a funcion of ime of day, day of week, emperaure and oher facors. Esimaes of swich acivaion success raes were developed based on he 2013 es even and applied o reference loads in he ex ane analysis. Ex pos load impacs were esimaed by modeling hourly weekday (non-holiday) summer loads as a funcion of day of week, monh, weaher and he presence of SDP evens. Load impac esimaes were developed for four sraa using an esimaing sample represening 92% of he program populaion. Ex ane load impacs relied on modeling load impacs on weaher condiions; reference loads for non-summer monhs were esimaed wih cooling degree hours for nonsummer monhs using he summer hourly load model. Pump loads are fully shu down when swich acivaion is successful Swich acivaion success raes are assumed o improve hrough 2014 due o an effor o idenify and fix communicaion and swich failures Enrollmen is projeced o slighly decrease No snapback is modeled for he Commercial program given curren evidence ha for single-hour evens, no subsanial snapback exiss. However, snapback may exis in acualiy under he condiion of a five-hour even. Ex ane esimaes assume ha paricipans' characerisics such as CAC onnage and SEER raing do no change Enrollmen is expeced o decline by 1% in 2015 and o remain sable hroughou he remainder of he ex ane forecas horizon Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 13

17 Mehodology Program Mehod Evaluaion Descripion Key Assumpions Summer Discoun Plan - Residenial (SDP-R) Regression models - individual cusomer Ex pos load impacs were esimaed by modeling hourly weekday (non-holiday) summer loads as a funcion of day of week, monh, weaher, he presence of SPD evens and he presence of SDP evens. Load impac esimaes were developed for six sraa using an esimaing sample randomly drawn from he program populaion. Ex ane load impacs relied on modeling load impacs on weaher condiions; reference loads from he PY 2012 evaluaion were used again for nonsummer monhs. In ex ane esimaion, PTR is assumed o have no maerial impac on consumpion Ex ane esimaes assume ha paricipans' characerisics such as CAC onnage and SEER raing do no change Enrollmen is expeced o decline by 4% in 2015 and o remain sable hroughou he remainder of he ex ane forecas horizon Defaul Criical Peak Pricing (CPP) Ex pos: Regression models - individual regression and panel Ex ane: Regression models - aggregae The CPP ex pos hourly load impacs for program year 2013 were esimaed wih a difference-in-differences panel regression using a conrol group in addiion o individual cusomer regressions. Ex ane load impacs were esimaed by modeling 2012 and 2013 ex pos load impacs as a funcion of weaher. Fuure load impacs will observe a simliar relaionship o weaher as observed in 2012 and 2013 No growh in enrollmen Demand Bidding Program (DBP) Regression models - individual cusomer Ex pos hourly load impacs were esimaed using regression equaions applied o cusomer-level hourly load daa. Ex ane load impacs were esimaed using percenage load impacs direcly calculaed from ex pos resuls and applied o 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 weaher reference loads. Programlevel load impacs are significanly higher han porfolio-level load impacs in all forecas years due o dual enrollmen in BIP or DRC. Fuure bidding behavior will be similar o curren bidding behavior SCE will begin removing nonperforming cusomers from he program in 2014 Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 14

18 Mehodology Program Mehod Evaluaion Descripion Key Assumpions Capaciy Bidding Program (CBP-DA and CPB-DO) Demand Response Conracs (DRC-DA and DRC-DO) Save Power Day (SPD) Regression models - individual cusomer Regression models - individual cusomer Ex pos: Mached conrol group Ex ane: Regression models Direc esimaes of oal program level ex pos load impacs for each program were developed from he coefficiens of individual cusomer regression equaions for cusomers enrolled in CBP in The ex ane esimaes facored in hisorical performance from 2011, 2012 and 2013 evens for each cusomer enrolled in he program a he end of he 2013 cycle. Direc esimaes of oal program level ex pos load impacs for each program were developed from he coefficiens of individual cusomer regression equaions for cusomers enrolled in DRC in The ex ane esimaes facored in hisorical performance from 2011, 2012 and 2013 evens for each cusomer enrolled in he program a he end of he 2013 cycle. To esimae ex pos load impacs for SPD cusomers, Nexan compared paricipan load o a mached conrol group on SPD even days. The impac esimaes are based on a difference-in-differences comparison of conrol and reamen group usage during even days and he chosen even-like days. The ex ane evaluaion incorporaed informaion from he five SPD evens ha were called in Using he 2013 ex pos esimaes a he weaher saion-level, an impac model was developed o esimae how SPD even load reducions vary as a funcion of emperaure Fuure load impacs for each cusomer will be similar o hisorical performance in 2011, 2012, and 2013 Cusomer mix will be similar o ha of he 2013 paricipans 0% growh for DA and DO opions Fuure load impacs for each cusomer will be similar o hisorical performance in 2011, 2012 and 2013 Cusomer mix will be similar o ha of he 2013 cusomer mix 0% annual growh in enrollmen for DO, and 0 enrollmens for DA opion Enrollmen forecass reflec a 3% decline in paricipaion by 2015 and remain sable hereafer Defaul SPD cusomers (cusomers who do no op-in o noificaion) will no longer be eligible for rebaes Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 15

19 Mehodology Program Mehod Evaluaion Descripion Key Assumpions Real-ime Pricing (RTP) Regression models - individual cusomer Cusomer load was modeled as a funcion of ime of day, day of week, weaher (for some cusomers) and hourly price schedules using 2013 hourly daa. The impacs were esimaed as he difference beween cusomer loads under RTP and esimaed hourly loads under he oherwise applicable ariff prices based on individual cusomer price response. Cusomers will coninue o respond o prices as hey have in he pas Large cusomers who have been on he program for hree or more years are no projeced o leave RTP during he forecas horizon. Cusomers who leave are expeced o be relaively small compared o he average cusomer in he program. RTP is expeced o experience a modes decrease in enrollmen over he nex year before becoming sable in 2015 RTP will be available o TOU-8 cusomers Fuure RTP and TOU-8 raes will be similar o presen raes Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 16

20 Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes 4 Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes This secion summarizes he load impacs in 2013 for even-based programs. Ex pos load impacs are based on modeling elecriciy use paerns and load impacs over a hisorical period. They esimae wha happened based on he condiions ha were in effec during ha ime. While hisorical load paerns and impacs are criical for undersanding he magniude of load reducion resources, hey have limiaions. Because hisorical performance is ied o pas condiions such as weaher, price levels and dispach sraegy (e.g., localized dispaches), ex pos load impacs may no reflec he full opion value of a DR resource. For example, a es even for a highly weaher sensiive program such as SDP-C may yield lower impacs han wha he program can provide because fuure evens migh occur a hoer emperaures when air condiioning loads are higher. Likewise, resources such as CBP or DRC may be dispached parially one produc line is called in which case ex pos evens do no necessarily reflec he program load reducion capabiliy. 4.1 Summary of 2013 Evens In 2013, SCE DR resources were dispached based on program rules and need. The even days and even hours differed across programs and, someimes, wihin programs. Table 4-1 summarizes he evens called in 2013 by dae and program 3. RTP is omied because i is no an even-based program. CBP and CPP were dispached mos frequenly of he even-based programs. As noed earlier, several programs are dispached sraegically o address congesion in specific zones in order o es load response capabiliies or for economic reasons. CBP and DRC were never dispached in full. SCE also engaged in localized esing of resources for SDP evens his year. Given he sensiiviy of air condiioning loads o weaher, he ex pos evens are no represenaive of he SDP populaion nor represenaive of he weaher during peaking condiions. For DRC and CBP, differen combinaions of program producs and/or aggregaors (if applicable) were dispached for each individual even. As a resul, he impacs for individual even days are no necessarily represenaive of he resources available should SCE solici demand reducions from all aggregaor resources a once. 3 Single-hour evens are denoed wih one hour-ending indicaor in Table 4-1. For example, an even ha began a 2 PM and lased unil 3 PM would be denoed as 15:00. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 17

21 Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes Table 4-1: Summary of 2013 Evens by Dae and Program Even Hours are Hour Ending Dae BIP AP-I SDP-C SDP-R CPP DBP CBP-DA CBP-DO DRC SPD 1-May 13:00-15:00 2-May 14:00-17:00 14:00-17:00 3-May 14:00-17:00 13-May 14:00-17:00 13:00-18:00/14:00-17:00 14:00-17:00 14-May 14:00-17:00/15:00-16:00 15-May 17:00 20-May 15:00-18:00/16:00-17:00/17:00 21-May 15:00-17:00 13:00/16:00 30-May 15:00-17:00 31-May 15:00-18:00 3-Jun 13:00-20:00 27-Jun 14:00-17:00 Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 18

22 Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes Dae BIP AP-I SDP-C SDP-R CPP DBP CBP-DA CBP-DO AMP SPD 28-Jun 17:00-18:00 13:00-20:00 15:00-18:00 13:00-18:00/14:00-17:00 14:00-17:00/15:00-16:00 1-Jul 15:00-18:00 2-Jul 16:00 17:00-18:00 13:00-20:00 13:00-19:00/14:00-19:00/15:00-18:00 12:00-19:00/14:00-19:00/15:00-18:00 14:00-17:00 14:00-17:00 15:00-18:00 3-Jul 15:00-18:00 16:00-17:00 9-Jul 16:00-17:00 15-Jul 16:00-17:00 16-Jul 16:00-17:00 19-Jul 17:00 16:00-17:00 22-Jul 17:00 31-Jul 15:00-16:00/16:00-17:00 15-Aug 17:00 21-Aug 15:00-18:00 Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 19

23 Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes Dae BIP AP-I SDP-C SDP-R CPP DBP CBP-DA CBP-DO AMP SPD 22-Aug 17:00 16:00-17:00 17:00 28-Aug 16:00-17:00 15:00-18:00 13:00-20:00 16:00-17:00 15:00-18:00 29-Aug 17:00 15:00-17:00 16:00-17:00 15:00-18:00/15:00-19:00 15:00-18:00 30-Aug 15:00-18:00 17:00 12:00-15:00/12:00-17:00 15:00-18:00/16:00-19:00 15:00-18:00 4-Sep 16:00-17:00 15:00-18:00 15:00-17:00 14:00-17:00 5-Sep 17:00-17:00 17:00 15:00-18:00 6-Sep 15:00-18:00 15:00-18:00 14:00-17:00/14:00-18:00 14:00-17:00 9-Sep 16:00 16:00-17:00 13:00-20:00 15:00-17:00 14:00-17:00 15:00-18:00 13-Sep 15:00-18:00 19-Sep 16:00-17:00 17:00 23-Sep 15:00-18:00 30-Sep 20:00 15:00-18:00 Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 20

24 Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes Dae BIP AP-I SDP-C SDP-R CPP DBP CBP-DA CBP-DO AMP SPD 4-Oc 15:00-18:00 17-Oc 15:00-18:00 14:00-15:00 13-Nov 18:00-19:00 Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 21

25 Ex Pos Load Impac Esimaes 4.2 Even Averages by Program Inerpreing he average even impac across evens can be difficul because muliple facors can vary across even days, including emperaure, he normal paern of energy use, enrollmen, he number of cusomers called, dispach sraegy and number of even hours. For programs such as large cusomer DBP and CPP wih sable paricipaion, fixed even windows, less weaher sensiive cusomers and universal dispach for all evens, he average even impacs can provide meaningful and insighful daa abou program performance. However, for resources ha do no have hose characerisics, he average even impacs provide limied insigh and can be misleading. In shor, ex pos load impacs may no reflec he full opion value of a DR resource and should be inerpreed wih cauion. In he case of AP-I, SDP, DRC and CBP, no only was a subse of cusomers called for each even, bu he cusomers called for each even were no necessarily represenaive of he overall program. Table 4-2 summarizes he average even impacs across all evens for each of SCE's programs ha had an even in A oal row a he boom is no provided because hese are differen ypes of programs ha were dispached a differen imes in 2013, as shown in Table 4-1. Table 4-2: 2013 Ex Pos Load Impacs for he Average Even by Program Program Reference Load (kw) Load wih DR (kw) Load Impac per Cusomer (kw) % Load Impac Aggregae Impac (MW) Accouns Called AP-I % 42 1,124 1 BIP-15 2, , BIP-30 1, SDP-C % ,542 4 Number of Evens SDP-R % , CPP % 36 2, DBP % 100 1,312 5 CBP-DA % CBP-DO % DRC-DA % DRC-DO % 127 1,589 7 SPD (Op-In) % ,737 5 SPD (Defaul) % ,642 5 Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 22

26 Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes 5 Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes The porfolio ex ane load impac esimaes summarize he load reducion ha can be expeced from all of SCE s DR programs if called simulaneously. They are based on a common even window and he weaher condiions underlying 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 monhly sysem peak days. The ex ane esimaes provide esimaes of he resources available under condiions ha are linked o he need for invesmen in addiional capaciy. The load impac esimaes for each program align wih revised resource adequacy hours, 1 o 6 PM in April hrough Ocober and 4 o 9 PM in November hrough March. Porfolio-adjused load reducions reflec he assignmen of load impacs from dually enrolled accouns o a single program in order o avoid double couning impacs. The load impacs of cusomers enrolled in boh an emergency program and a price-responsive program are aribued o he emergency response program for porfolio-adjused reporing. 4 Alhough dual paricipaion is allowed for many of SCE s DR programs, currenly, overlaps are almos exclusively beween cusomers dually enrolled in BIP and DBP. The remainder of his secion summarizes he ex ane load impac esimaes for SCE's porfolio of DR programs. The discussion focuses on high level porfolio aggregae impacs by forecas year, monh and program ype. The remainder of he porfolio-adjused and program-specific esimaes ha are required o be included in his execuive summary by he Proocols can be found in Appendices B, C, D and E. 5.1 Projeced Change in Porfolio Load Impacs from Figure 5-1 presens he porfolio-adjused aggregae load impac esimaes for he Augus sysem peak day under 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 sysem condiions by forecas year. The esimaed aggregae load reducion is highes in 2014 and says consan hrough he end of he forecas horizon. Under 1-in-2 sysem condiions, SCE's DR porfolio is projeced o fall slighly from 1,276 MW in 2014 o 1,259 MW in 2016 and hen remain sable hereafer. Under 1-in-10 sysem condiions, SCE's DR porfolio is expeced o deliver 1,294 MW for he 1-in-10 Augus sysem peak day in For purposes of esimaing aggregae load impacs ha apply o he cap on emergency DR programs, he allocaion rule is reversed in ha he load impacs for dually enrolled cusomers are aribued o he price responsive program. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 23

27 Aggregae Load Impac (MW) Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes Figure 5-1: Porfolio Aggregae Load Impac Esimaes (MW) for he Augus Sysem Peak Day By 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 Sysem Condiions and Forecas Year 1-in-10 Sysem Condiions 1-in-2 Sysem Condiions Forecas Year Porfolio Aggregae Load Impacs by Monh Figure 5-2 shows how he 2015 porfolio load impacs vary by monh under 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 sysem condiions. In 2015, SCE's DR porfolio is projeced o be capable of delivering up o 1,275 MW of load reducion during he Augus monhly sysem peak day under 1-in-10 sysem condiions. The July and Sepember load impacs under 1-in-10 sysem condiions are similar bu slighly lower, 1,232 MW and 1,193 MW, respecively. The porfolio load impacs during non-summer monhs are subsanially lower for wo main reasons: SDP - Commercial is only available during summer monhs; and CBP and DRC are only available o be called from May hrough Ocober. Alhough he porfolio load impacs during non-summer monhs are subsanially lower, i is imporan o noe ha SCE's porfolio of DR programs is maximized from July hrough Sepember, which are he monhs in which a sysem peak is mos likely o occur. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 24

28 Aggregae Load Impac (MW) Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes Figure 5-2: 2015 Porfolio Aggregae Load Impac Esimaes (MW) By 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 Sysem Condiions and Monhly Sysem Peak Day 1-in-10 Sysem Condiions 1-in-2 Sysem Condiions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oc Nov Dec Monhly Sysem Peak Day 5.3 Porfolio Load Impacs by Program Type SCE has moved owards a more balanced DR porfolio by program ype wih fewer emergency response resources. Figure 5-3 shows he disribuion of porfolio aggregae load impacs by program ype a he end of he ex ane forecas horizon, years 2016 hrough Load impacs from emergency response programs are forecas o comprise 56% of SCE's DR porfolio during his period, a smaller fracion of he oal porfolio han i has been in previous years. Mos of he remaining load impacs are forecas o come from aggregaor-managed programs (11%) and price-responsive programs (31%). Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 25

29 Ex Ane Load Impac Esimaes Figure 5-3: Disribuion of Porfolio Aggregae Load Impacs by Program Type Augus Sysem Peak Day under 1-in-2 Sysem Condiions SmarConnecenabled 1% MW = 1,259 Aggregaormanaged 11% Priceresponsive 31% Non-even based 1% Emergency 56% 5.4 Porfolio Load Impacs by Program Table 5-1 summarizes he porfolio load impacs by program for 2014 hrough 2024 under 1-in-2 sysem peak condiions. The following lis provides some background behind he aggregae impac resuls for each program: Aggregae load impacs for BIP decrease slighly over ime due o he enrollmen forecas. There are no assumpions in he PY2013 evaluaion for BIP cusomer load o increase over ime; AP-I aggregae load impacs increase over ime because of enrollmen growh and a projeced improvemen in swich acivaion success raes; SDP-Residenial aggregae load impacs decrease in 2015 due o projeced enrollmens; and The remainder of he DR programs a SCE are forecas o have seady load impacs hroughou he forecas window. Execuive Summary: Demand Response Porfolio of Souhern California Edison Company 26