Growth & Survival of Salmon at Sea in Response to Competition & Climate Change
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1 Growth & Survival of Salmon at Sea in Response to Competition & Climate Change Greg Ruggerone (NRC), Jennifer Nielsen (USGS), Bev Agler (ADFG) Funding: USGS Global Change Program Moore Foundation AYK SSI
2 Does competition in the Ocean occur among or between salmon species? Growth? Survival? Few survival studies; complicated because high abundance infers high survival; difficult to conduct experiment. Google Earth
3 Hatchery Premise: No Competition 5 billion per year Asia & NA releases into ocean Updated from Mahnken et al. 1998
4 Wild v. Hatchery Chum Abundance: Competition? Wild pink and sockeye salmon increased after mid-1970s Why not wild chum salmon?
5 Competition Controversy Shuntov, Laevastu studies: Many prey in ocean Salmon consume <2% of prey eaten by all nekton All nekton consume <10% of total prey production Salmon do not shoal beyond coastal waters Competition not likely important Correlation & modeling growth studies Multiple species & regions suggest competition Density-dependent growth (adults & juveniles) Few survival studies Effects of reduced size on future production?
6 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Competition with Asian pink salmon Growth Survival Mechanism for AK sockeye salmon increase after 1977 ocean regime shift Increase growth early marine life? Competition?
7 Eastern Kamchatka Pink Salmon Runs, Natural Experimental Control E Kamchatka pink run (Z) 3 Even-numbered years 2 Odd-numbered years Odd-yr mean ± 1 SD = 52 ± 26 million pink salmon Y e a r 100 million Odd-year pink salmon 39x more abundant in Bering Sea (Davis et al. 2005)
8 Overlap of E Kamchatka Pink & Bristol Bay Sockeye salmon Tag Data (K. Myers)
9 Sockeye & Pink Salmon Diet Overlap in Bering Sea, (Davis et al. 2005) Stomach content of sockeye & pink salmon declined 36% & 24%, respectively, in oddyears. Pink Salmon Key prey (squid & fish) declined 27% in sockeye, 7% in pinks. Pink CPUE was 58x greater than sockeye.
10 Salmon Scales Record Growth Across Time & Broad Regions of Ocean
11 Bristol Bay sockeye growth reduced during odd years at sea (2nd & 3rd yrs) Normalized growth (Z) rd year at sea mean = 612 ± 54 µ Odd-numbered year Even-numbered year Year at sea Pinks increase after mid-1970s Ruggerone et al. 2003
12 Smolt to Adult Survival, Survival at sea (%) % -26% Odd 2nd y r Even 2nd y r Odd 2nd y r Even 2nd yr 0 Age 1. Age 2. Freshwater age Ruggerone et al. 2003
13 91 Million Fewer Sockeye, ($482 million loss) Adult sockeye salmon (millions) 10 5 Odd 2nd yr Even 2nd yr 22% loss 0 Egegik Kvichak Naknek Ugashik Nushagak Sockeye salmon stock Ruggerone & Nielsen 2004
14 Abundance of AK sockeye salmon doubled after 1977 Mechanism? Sockeye salmon run (millions) 125 Western AK North America 100 World Y e a r
15 Hypothesis: 1976/77 climate shift led to greater growth at sea & greater survival & abundance. Problems: Few long-term data on salmon prey abundance. Adult size (all species) has declined over time & densitydependence. How do we know if salmon prey increased if adult size has decreased?
16 Test Hypothesis: 1976/77 climate shift led to greater growth at sea & greater survival & abundance. Bristol Bay & Chignik sockeye salmon scale growth
17 Bristol Bay & Chignik Sockeye Broadly distributed in Bering Sea and North Pacific
18 Bristol Bay & Chignik Sockeye Growth: Regime Shift Effect on prey & salmon growth Sockeye scale growth (Z) Years 1 & Shift Regime shift Year 3 & migration Year at sea Bristol Bay & Chignik correlated Ruggerone et al. 2007
19 Sockeye Run Size vs. Growth at Sea, Alaska sockeye run size (millions) (A) (B) Sockeye growth at sea (Z): years 1 & Sockeye growth at sea (Z): year 3 & SWPL y = (SW1&2) (SW3&SWPL) (pink index) (SST), R 2 = 0.56 Ruggerone et al. 2007
20 Climate, Competition & Sockeye Length-at-Age L = (sockeye) -.144(pinks), r 2 =.40 Model residual (mm) (B) 1976/77 Shift 1989 Shift Y e a r Ruggerone et al. 2007
21 Sockeye Length vs Sockeye & Pink Abundance, Sockeye length (mm) Bristol Bay sockeye run (millions) Eastern Kamchatka pink salmon catch (mt) L (mm) = (sockeye) -.170(pink) (period: 77-88) + 4.4(period: 89-03) Ruggerone et al. 2007
22 Conclusions Climate and prey availability are key to salmon survival. Increasing evidence: competition at sea can affect salmon growth & possibly survival. Prey patches & large prey (squid, fishes) may be key to salmon growth.
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1900 WEST NICKERSON STREET, SUITE 207 SEATTLE, WASHINGTON 98119, U.S.A. TELEPHONE: (206) 285-3480 FAX: (206) 283-8263 EMAIL: GRuggerone@nrccorp.com EDUCATION CURRICULUM VITAE GREGORY T. RUGGERONE Ph.D.
Population Structure
Population Structure Elements of Population Evolution Reproductive isolation (homing to natal sites) Differential natural and sexual selection Heritable traits Results Genetically determined population
THE OREGON. PLAN for Salmon and Watersheds. Stock Assessment of Anadromous Salmonids, Report Number: OPSW-ODFW
THE OREGON PLAN for Salmon and Watersheds Stock Assessment of Anadromous Salmonids, Report Number: OPSW-ODFW-1- The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife prohibits discrimination in all of it s programs