Growth of Bristol Bay & Yukon River, Alaska Chum Salmon in Response to Climatic Factors & Inter-specific Competition
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1 Growth of Bristol Bay & Yukon River, Alaska Chum Salmon in Response to Climatic Factors & Inter-specific Competition Bev Agler Alaska Department of Fish and Game Greg Ruggerone Natural Resources Consultants, Inc. Funding: NPMR, AYK SSI, & ADFG
2 Sockeye growth reduced during odd years at sea corresponding to Asian pink salmon abundance Normalized growth (Z) rd year at sea mean = 612 ± 54 µ Odd-numbered year Even-numbered year Year at sea
3 BB Sockeye Length & Climate Change L = (sockeye) -.144(pinks), r2 =.40 Model residual (mm) (B) 1976/77 Shift 1989 Shift Year
4 Chum Salmon Are there climatic factors that affect growth of Bristol Bay & Yukon River, Alaska chum salmon? Used several environmental variables for comparisons Does Asian pink salmon abundance affect growth of Alaska chum salmon? Does Asian chum salmon abundance affect growth of Alaska chum salmon?
5 Environmental Variables North Pacific Index (NPI) Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI) Arctic Oscillation Index El Nino Index Annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Ice Cover Mean May SST 2 mixing indices Bering Sea Level Pressure (winter & spring) Air Temp (local by fish system) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index Winter index November March
6 Explanatory Variables Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Used Winter Index, November March Mantua et al.
7 Abundance Data Available Pink Salmon Abundance Total catch and escapement from Russia Asian Chum Salmon Abundance Catch and escapement data in millions of fish from Japan and Russia Used a 4-year moving average
8 Areas Sampled Scale Samples from 2 regions: Yukon River Big Eddy (near mouth) Yukon River Bristol Bay Nushagak River Collected Bristol Bay
9 Scale growth - proxy for overall growth Adult Fish Length (mm) Bristol Bay Length = (Scale) R 2 = 0.56, p = 3.6 e Scale growth (mm) Yukon Length = (Scale growth) R 2 = 0.52, p = 9.4 e -08
10 Scale Digitizing Equipment
11 Annuli & Circuli Measurements Chum Salmon scale Use average size of growth zone by year. Age 03 or 4-year old fish & Age 04 or 5-year old fish Examined 2 growth zones: SW1: Critical period Critical size hypothesis SW3: Time when fish choose to stay in marine waters or return to spawn.
12 BB Chum SW1 Growth During Even vs. Odd Years at Sea Odd Even /77 regime shift 1989 shift Year at sea Normalized growth
13 BB Chum SW3 Growth During Even vs. Odd Years at Sea 1976/77 regime shift Odd Even shift Year at sea Normalized growth
14 Methods Correlations Compared salmon growth with environmental variables using correlation analysis Used data re: significant p values to determine what to use in multiple regression models Generalized additive models (GAMS) to explore data
15 Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) Linear model Why generalized? Accommodates non-normal distribution Allows violation of homogeneity Ordinary linear models are a special case of GLM Fits model using iterative algorithm (No closed-form solution as in linear model) Maximize likelihood OR, equivalently, minimize deviance More difficult to fit, may not always work!
16 SW1 Bristol Bay Full model SW1 ~ Pinks + Chums + Local annual SST + May mixing + Local air temp Reduced model Age 03 fish SW1 growth ~ Chums + Local annual SST Age 04 fish SW1 growth ~ Chums + Local annual SST + May Mixing
17 SW1 Yukon River Full model Age 03 SW1 ~ ALPI + Local Annual SST + May Mixing + Nome Annual Temperature Reduced model SW1 growth ~ May Mixing + Nome Annual Temperature Full model Age 04 SW1 ~ ALPI + Local Annual SST + NPI +Nome Annual Temperature Reduced model SW1 ~ ALPI + Local Annual SST
18 SW3 Bristol Bay Full model SW3 ~ Pinks + Chum + GOA Annual SST + ALPI + Gender +Pinks:Chum Reduced model Age 03 and 04 fish SW3 ~ Pinks + Chum + GOA Annual SST + Gender + Pinks:Chum
19 SW3 Yukon River Full model SW3 ~ Pinks + Chum + GOA Annual SST + NPI + Gender +Pinks:Chum Reduced model Age 03 and 04 fish SW3 ~ Pinks + Chum + GOA Annual SST + Gender + Pinks:Chum
20 Original Questions Are there climatic factors that affect growth of Bristol Bay & Yukon River, Alaska chum salmon? SW1
21 Climatic factors? Gulf of Alaska Annual SST Bristol Bay Yukon SW3
22 Does Asian pink salmon abundance affect growth of Bristol Bay &Yukon chum salmon? Yes, SW3 only, negative correlation
23 Asian chum salmon abundance & growth of Bristol Bay and Yukon chum salmon Yes, SW3 Only, negative correlation Bristol Bay
24 Do AK Chum Salmon Compete with Asian Chum & Pink Salmon? Wild chum did not increase after 1977; hatchery chum (mostly Japan) Ruggerone et al AYK chum overlap Japanese hatchery chum salmon K. Myers, UW Urawa et al. 2008
25 Asian chum much more abundant than Western AK chum Urawa et al. 2008
26 Where next? Compare with other systems Norton Sound Kuskokwim Japan Russia Few issues to examine Simplify models? Originally used on Pinks + PDO Autocorrelation
27 Conclusions Environmental variables important during first year of growth. Appears to be density-dependent interactions among western Alaska chum salmon and Asian pink & chum salmon. Competition at sea can affect salmon growth & future productivity. Research is needed to better understand species interactions & mechanisms impacting salmon survival.
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