Declining patterns of Pacific Northwest steelhead trout spawner abundance and marine survival
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1 Declining patterns of Pacific Northwest steelhead trout spawner abundance and marine survival Neala Kendall, Gary Marston, and Matt Klungle Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Presented by: Erik Neatherlin, WDFW
2 Decline in Salish Sea Marine Survival Puget Sound Strait of Georgia VS Washington / B.C. Coast
3 ~80% mortality in Puget Sound within 2 3 weeks Mortality of wild acoustic tagged populations: Moore et. al. NOAA, 2013, unpublished data
4 Puget Sound Steelhead Abundance and Marine Survival Are Puget Sound abundance & marine survival trends different than those in other regions? How has survival changed over time? What environmental and fish characteristics are most related to marine survival trends?
5 Puget Sound Steelhead Abundance and Marine Survival Are Puget Sound abundance & marine survival trends different than those in other regions? How has survival changed over time? What environmental and fish characteristics are most related to marine survival trends?
6 Constraints/challenges Steelhead smolts are strong swimmers so harder to trap Adults return when waters are high (spring spawners) so more difficult to monitor spawning Steelhead are not coded wire tagged (CWT) Less data over shorter time periods available for wild populations
7 Steelhead spawner abundance data Photo: Morgan Bond
8 Abundances changes 1980s vs. 2000s
9 Steelhead marine survival trends Photos by Morgan Bond
10 Marine survival correlation by distance Pyper et al CJFAS pink salmon What about for steelhead?? For pink, chum, sockeye, Chinook, and coho salmon: Mostly positive correlations across North Pacific Ocean demonstrating general regional coherence Closer populations are more tightly correlated demonstrating local coherence
11 Steelhead positive marine survival correlation by distance
12 Steelhead marine survival trends Photos by Morgan Bond
13 Hatchery & wild marine survival: smolt to adult return rates (SAR) Percent of smolts leaving freshwater that survival to return as adults Smolt survival = # spawners/hatchery returns + # catch # smolts Photo: Morgan Bond
14 48 steelhead stocks/pops: Puget Sound: 10 hatchery stocks, 2 wild populations Strait of Juan de Fuca: 1 hatchery stocks, 5 wild populations Coast: 11 hatchery stocks, 2 wild populations Lower Columbia: 12 hatchery stocks, 4 wild populations Johnstone Strait: 1 wild population Map by Dale Gombert, WDFW
15 Determining Steelhead Groupings Multivariate Auto Regressive State Space (MARSS) Fit models to time series data using maximum likelihood, includes both process and observation error Does not require all data series to cover the same time period Provides statistical support for various population/stock groupings best supported models determined by AIC c
16 Marine survival Marine survival Regional groupings and steelhead marine survival trends
17 Steelhead marine survival time series breakpoints
18 Environmental indicators Ocean: climate forcing and large scale factors Region specific: nearshore and Strait of Juan de Fuca Local/basin more immediate marine entry LOWER COL WA COAST PUGET SOUND Kendall et al. (WDFW) Ocean Region specific Local/basin NPGO SOI PDO NOI Sea surface temp (coastal shelf) Coastal upwell index (45N) + Spring transition Copepod community index Winter ichthyoplankton Chlorophyll a level Race Rocks temp Race Rocks salinity Neah Bay sea level Pacific coast sea surface temp Sea surface salinity (SJDF) Coastal upwelling index (48N) + River flow River flow Temperature, salinity Dissolved oxygen Chlorophyll a levels Density, ph Light transmissivity Adult herring abund. + Hatchery coho abundance Seal abundancce + and marine bird abundance of other marine fishes
19 Steelhead marine survival summary Puget Sound steelhead marine survival has declined over time, especially low since early 1990s Puget Sound, Strait of Juan de Fuca, coast, and lower Columbia River steelhead have exhibited different marine survival trends Marine survival correlation by distance results support hypothesis that much of the marine mortality occurs during early marine life. Environmental conditions influencing marine survival have unique smaller scale characteristics. Breakpoint analysis suggested that we can focus on specific time periods of decline and correlate with environmental conditions and trends
20 Next steps Further summarize environmental indicator data to relate to steelhead marine survival trends Carry out the modeling work to relate indicators to marine survival trends
21 Acknowledgements Many WDFW, tribal, and other biologists who have provided wild and hatchery smolt and adult data to estimate SARs Mark Scheuerell, Thomas Buehrens, Joe Anderson, Mara Zimmerman, and others for helpful conversations and insights Puget Sound steelhead early marine survival working group, including Michael Schmidt (Long Live the Kings)
22 Thank you
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