Fisheries Futures 2050 Bob Kearney, Barney Foran, Don Lowe, Franzi Poldy and Graham Turner

Transcription

1 Fisheries Futures 25 Bob Kearney, Barney Foran, Don Lowe, Franzi Poldy and Graham Turner

2 Purpose of the Study Long range perspective of the tensions between fisheries demand and production at a national level Linkage between population growth and affluence and effects on capture fisheries and aquaculture Policy options to resolve requirement and production imbalances out to 22 and then to25 Comprehensive long term view of the dynamics of fisheries production Incorporate fisheries into the modelling of natural resources and demography at a national level Enable fisheries industry to better understand its relationship to national policies concerning resource use and development agendas

3 Volume (million tonnes) World Fisheries Production World exc. China exc. China,Peru,Chile exc. China Year Volume (million tonnes) World Wild Caught Aqua Year

4 Volume ('s tonnes) Australian Fisheries Production Total Pisces Crustacea Mollusca Year Volume ('s tonnes) Total showing groups Total showing aquaculture Total Capture Aquaculture Year

5 Options for a bigger or smaller economy Future Dilemmas (22) Millions Total Population to 21 Business Policy Deep Green Time of Simulation Percentage Population Ageing Trade Balance Physical Flows Proportion of People 65 Years and Over Deep Green Time of Simulation Policy Business International 4. Quaternary Debt 3. Tertiary 2. Secondary 1. Primary Merchandise Balance of Trade Lifestyle and Scale Effects Direct Requirements RESOURCE USAGE and ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY POPULATION SIZE tonnes per person per year Dilemma of Per Capita Physical Flows Netherlands Material Flow per Person United States Germany Japan 26 Time of Simulation Policy 221 Deep Green Business

6 Options for a bigger or smaller economy Future Dilemmas (22) Total Population to Millions Business Policy Deep Green Time of Simulation Greenhouse Emissions Oil and Gas Depletion Environmental Quality Dilemma of Greenhouse Gas Emissions million tonnes per year CO2 emissions 1961 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions Policy 26 Time of Simulation 221 Business Deep Green Resource Depletion Dilemmas Possible Oil and Gas Futures million tonnes per year million tonnes per year Crude Oil and Condensate - Needs and Production 7 Business 6 Policy Oil needs Deep Green production Time of Simulation Natural Gas - Needs and Production production Gas needs Dilemmas of Environmental Quality Air Quality in Airsheds of Capital Cities kilotonnes per year Transport Emissions in Cities 1976 NOx in Sydney Time of Simulation Business 221 Policy Deep Green Time of Simulation

7 Australian Stocks and Flows Framework Population Agriculture International Travel Labour Transport Consumables Infrastructure quantities required quantities produced Forestry Fisheries Mining Land Resource Water Resource Processing & Assembly Air Resource Recycling Material/Energy Transformation International Trade

8 Types of (simple) Fisheries Models Age Structure Fisher Dynamics Biomass Dynamics Models Ecosystems and Multispecies Models Spatial Models Hilborn and Walters (1992)

9 The Schaefer Model and the Logistic Curve (extended to include catch) Figure 1 An example of logistic growth that assumes r =.2 which results in a time for full recovery of 22. years. 1% 8% % biomass 6% 4% 2% 1 % time for full recovery % year 4 Year year 26

10 Jurisdictions The Simulation Results and National Database 22 Fish Units Virgin biomass Simulated biomass Real catch data to 21 Simulated catch

11 Three Fisheries Scenarios Continuous Fishing Attempt to catch the average of the last ten years. Catch rate is biologically informed by past history, but fisheries are not closed when biomass declines below 2% of virgin biomass. Cautious Attempt is made to catch the average of the decade If stock is pushed to below 2% of virgin biomass, then fishery is closed until 2% is reached again, and yearly catch is then set to equal yearly growth. Optimum Long Term Immediate lower catches to increase size and resilience of the fish stock, where appropriate. When near virgin biomass, catch rates are set to reach 72% of VB. When biomass is low, catch rates are set to 8% of yearly growth rate to allow stock increase.

12 Wild Caught Production with NO Seal Effect Total Wild Caught Production 25, Optimum Long Term 2, Tonnes per Year 15, 1, 5, Cautious Continuous Fishing Time of Simulation

13 Composition of Catch 25, Wild Caught Production by Fish Type Tonnes per Year 2, 15, 1, other fin fish crustaceans echinoderms molluscs 5, Year of Simulation

14 The Anticipated Import Requirements Component Domestic requirement Wild caught production in the cautious scenario Projected domestic aquaculture projection 442, 1 776, 2 1,15, 3 198, 17, 165, 34, 66, 13, Projected fish 7, 7, 7, exports 4 Projected fish 28, 61, 925, imports 5

15 Stock Resilience Indicator Cautionary fishing scenario 1% Super-critical 8% Critical 6% Severe 4% Over-utilised 2% Cautious Fully-utilised Continuous fishing scenario % Und er-utilis ed 1% Super-critical % Critical 6% Severe 1% Optimum long term fishing scenario Super-critical 4% 2% Continuous Fishing Over-utilised Fully-utilised 8% Critical % Under-utilised 6% Severe % 2% Optimum Long Term Over-utilised Fully-utilised % Underutilis ed

16 Travelling towards a possibly constrained future Australia still has 2 good years in front of it before constraints hit us Time to act or relax?

17 The big picture Total Wild Caught Production 25, Optimum Long Term 2, Tonnes per Year 15, 1, 5, Cautious Continuous Fishing Time of Simulation

18 What these results mean And how meaningful are they? To Australia To fisheries management agencies To policy makers To fishers collectively and individually

19 Review of what we did What underpins our projections? Data on individual fish units from fishery management agencies Data cleaning and coding Select model bounded by virgin biomass and growth rate, but driven by catch Checking biomass estimates k and population growth rate r for each species with relevant literature and experts Aggregate 22 individual fisheries Projections driven by aggregate fish data and other long term national drivers

20 Reality checking Steering committee Author s review of each of 22 different fisheries Checking with key scientists for key fisheries Workshop Independent review (Hall, Smith & Hundloe) Conclusion: No consistent known bias

21 Reality Checking: WA Rock Lobster Catch catch and growth (tonnes per year) catch growth Year

22 Reality Checking: Snapper WA Catch catch and growth (tonnes per year) catch growth Year

23 Reality Checking: Northern Prawn Catch Biomass catch and growth (tonnes per year) catch growth biomass (tonnes) CA - NPF penaeid_praw ns maximum actual Year

24 Reality Checking: Southern Bluefin Tuna Catch catch and growth (tonnes per year) catch growth Year

25 Reality Checking: Eastern Gemfish catch and growth (tonnes per year) Catch catch growth Year biomass (tonnes) Biomass CA - SEF black_mackerels_snake_mackerels 4 35 maximum 3 actual

26 Reality Checking: SA King George Whiting with Seal Effect 4 3 SA - Marine_Scale w hitings catch and growth (tonnes per year) Catch catch growth biomass (tonnes) Biomass maximum actual Year

27 Simulated seal effect Tonnes per Year 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Total Wild Caught Production Optimum Long Term Cautious Continuous Fishing Tonnes per Year Total Wild Caught Production With Seal Effect 25, Optimum Long Term 2, Cautious 15, 1, Continuous Fishing 5, Time of Simulation Time of Simulation Seal populations trebling by 235 (Goldsworthy et al.) and area of distribution growing Seal consumption increasing to one million tonnes per year Seals consume commercially and recreationally important species Real effect unknown (external harvester vs part of the ecosystem) At best a species redistribution Our simulation suggests 35, tonnes impact on current commercial fisheries

28 Recreational fishing Recreational Fisheries Simulated to 25 4, catch demand NT Tonnes per Year 3, 2, 1, Tas SA WA Qld Poor data: 3, tonnes in 2 16, tonnes from the 22 fish units simulated in our model Recreational fisheries heavily exploited to overfished in some areas Seal effect is not included Vic NSW Time of Simulation

29 Study outcomes (1) Decoupling of population growth and fish supply Demand and cost increasing (Australia, China) World aquaculture growth (excluding China) = 5% of capture fisheries decline Australian aquaculture slow growing Australian aquaculture consumes fish

30 Study outcomes (2) Component Domestic requirement Wild caught production in the cautious scenario Projected domestic aquaculture projection 442, 1 776, 2 1,15, 3 198, 17, 165, 34, 66, 13, Projected fish 7, 7, 7, exports 4 Projected fish 28, 61, 925, imports 5 Quantum change in aquaculture policy required Imports or shortfall will increase

31 Future work (1) Refine and update individual species Produce regional and state scenarios Improve assessment of seal impacts Update and refine recreational impacts

32 Future work (2) Add other marine mammals, sea birds Add habitat degradation and pollution Model indigenous fisheries Find institutional home for this longterm national capability

33 Acknowledgments State and Commonwealth Fisheries Agencies ABARE, CSIRO Marine Key university colleagues Steering Committee FRDC