Analysing temporal series of SETI indicators for designing new policy instruments

Transcription

1 Analysing temporal series of SETI indicators for designing new policy instruments Guillermo A. Lemarchand Science Policy Consultant Division of Science Policy an Capacity Building UNESCO-Paris Dakar, Mars 2013

2 SUMMARY What is meant by Scientometrics? Mathematical model to understand the dynamics of long-term coauthorship networks. Results derived from the models and empirical studies. Key findings Scientometrics in Africa Long-term scientometrics analysis in Burkina Faso, Burundi, Côte d Ivoire, Gabon, Niger and Senegal. Main results.

3 25 SETImost important nations Main SETI output/input indicators Source: Scientific American, October 2012

4 Distribution of mainstream innovation indicators produced by WEF(2012) Source: Scientific American, October 2012 Germany China

5 What is meant by Scientometrics? Scientometrics is the general term for the inventory and statistical analysis of articles, publications and citations and other more complex indicators of scientific output derived from such statistics. Scientometrics indicators are important tools for the evaluation of R&D performance and specialization of countries, institutions, laboratories, individual scientists... Originally based on very simple publications and citations counts, scientometrics now allows, thanks to more and more powerful data processing facilities, the elaboration of sophisticated multidimensional indicators of S&T output and impact, of international cooperation in terms of co-authored publications, co-citations, S&T networking, etc. Scientometrics methods may be used to examine the links between S&T and patenting, for instance through the analysis of references in patent applications to other patents or to the scientific literature. Scientometrics indicators have now long been in use in national and international evaluation practice and publications. They are, of course, not exempt of criticism and should, equally as much as the R&D input series, be interpreted with caution.

6 The importance of long-term temporal series of indicators, their slopes and interpretation Lemarchand (2010)

7 1,000,000 Total number of articles listed at the Web-of-Science ( ) 100,000 10,000 1, R² = R² = R² = CHINA USA Lemarchand (2012)

8 FTE Scientists in USA Full Time Equivalent (FTE) People in China 1,600,000 1,400,000 R² = ,200,000 1,000, , , , , ,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , ,000 FTE RESEARCHERS FTE S&T PERSONNEL SP(t) = t 3-3,490, t 2 + 6,967,616, t- 4,635,644,790, R² = S(t) = t 3-2E+06t 2 + 3E+09t -2E+12 R² = Lemarchand (2012)

9 % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% PhDs (LAC) Exact and Natural Sciences Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Ingeniería Engineering y Tecnología and Technology Medicina Medicine Agricultura Agriculture Ciencias Social and Sociales Human y Humanas Sciences Distribution of new PhDs against main themes 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% First degrees (LAC) Ciencias Exact and Exactas Natural y Sciences Naturales Ingeniería Engineering y and Tecnología Technology Medicina Medicine Agricultura Agriculture Ciencias Social and Sociales Human y Sciences Humanas Distribution of new graduates against main themes

10 Map of the mainstream global network of co-authorship of scientific articles

11 Scientometrics: co-authorship studies Co-authorship is one of the most tangible and well documented forms of scientific collaboration. Almost every aspect of scientific collaboration networks can be reliably tracked by analyzing coauthorship networks by scientometricmethods. International co-authorship links have undergone dramatic structural changes in the last 25 years. In the last decade new mathematical models were develop to understand scientific networks

12 Dynamics of long-term self-organized co-authorship networks We assume that new researchers join the national scientific network (nodes) following a linear growth process describe by: = + Here S(t)represents total number of nodes, σ the growth constant and represents the total number of nodes when t=0. Based on: G.A. Lemarchand, Research Policy, vol. 41: , 2012

13 Evolution of FTE Researchers for several developed countries Full Time Equivalent Researchers in Germany, France, Canada, and The Netherlands 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 GERMANY FRANCE CANADA NETHERLANDS USA (right axis) R² = R² = R² = R² = R² = ,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 FTE Researchers in USA Lemarchand (2012)

14 Number of co-publications per year listed at WoS Spain USA France United Kingdom Germany Italy Number of co-publications per year listed at WoS Argentina USA Spain Brazil France Germany Lemarchand (2012) Lemarchand (2012)

15 What happens when the long-term evolution of FTE scientists has not a linear growth? 400, ,000 India y = x x 2 + 1E+08x -8E+10 R² = ,400,000 1,200,000 Russian Federation Total R&D personnel 300, ,000 Total R&D personnel 1,000, , ,000 FTE scientists 800, ,000 y = x + 4E+07 R² = ,000 50,000 y = x x 2 + 1E+08x -7E+10 R² = Lemarchand (2012) , ,000 FTE scientists y = x + 2E+07 R² = Lemarchand (2012)

16 What happens when the long-term evolution of FTE scientists has not a linear growth 2 700, ,000 FTE scientists Japan 70,000 60,000 Lemarchand (2012) Israel 500,000 50, , ,000 y = 21171x -4E+07 R² = ,000 30,000 y = 3E-35e x R² = ,000 20,000 FTE scientists in the Academia 100,000 Lemarchand (2012) ,

17 Number of co-authorship articles with USA listed at the WoS ( ) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Different co-authorship behaviour in co-publications with USA (major scientific hub in the world) 500 Lemarchand (2012) ISRAEL RUSSIA INDIA SWEDEN P(t) = t 2-6, t+ 6,556, R² = Negative quadratic growth P(t)= t-137, (Russian Federation) R² = P(t)= t , t - 29,316, R² = Linear growth (Israel) Quadratic growth (Sweden) Quartic growth (India) P(t)= t t , t 2-76,904, t + 38,122,244, R² =

18 Area GDP Distributions of area, population, GDP and scientific publications by the 5 UNESCO Regions (not necessary in agreement with traditional geographical regions) Population Scientific articles

19 International rankings of indicators are misleading Not all the countries have the same area, population, natural resources, historical trajectory We need to compare countries of the same area & population

20 10000 y = 2E-29e x R² = y = 4E-22e x R² = y = 4E-12e x R² = y = 1E-74e x R² = y = 7E-75e x R² = y = 2E-42e x R² = y = 5E-43e x R² = Costa Rica Croacia Croatia Publications Nueva New Zealand Zelanda y = 2E-22e x R² = Publications per Million people y = 3E-09e x R² = Publications per GDP Lemarchand (2011)

21 Social Contract of Science Linear Model of Science "Science the Endless Frontier" New Social Contract of Science Sustainable Science and Development Paradigm Diffusion of Techno-Economic Paradigms for the Organization of STI Structures and Policies Formulation Organization Action Questioning Formulation Organization Action Questioning Formulation Organization Action

22 Emergence of sustainable science as a new consolidate paradigm Sustainable Science Paradigm consolidated Source: Bettencourt & Kaur, PNAS,Vol. 108 (49) Dec.6, 2011 UNESCO-ICSU- WCS Budapest 1999

23 Geographical distribution and links for the production of knowledge using the sustainable science paradigm Africa is the less connected region within the Production of Sustainable Science New Knowledge

24 Scientometrics in Africa

25 1969

26 Ref.: UNESCO, Scientific Research in Africa, National Policies, Research Institutions, Paris, 1966: pp

27 Source: Nature(2011)

28 Publications scientifiques au WoS par million d'habitants 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

29 SOUTH KOREA: distribution of articles per general topics 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Medical Sciences Agriculture Sciences Social and Human Sciences 5% 0% UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform Based on SCOPUS original raw data

30 Scientometrics indicators: Burkina Faso

31 Burkina Faso: number of scientific articles listed at WoS 350 R² = UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

32 Burkina Faso: distribution of articles per general topics 70% 60% 50% 40% Agriculture Sciences Medical Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences 30% 20% 10% 0% UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SOUTH KOREA

33 Burkina Faso: distribution of articles per language ARTICLE % MEETING ABSTRACT % PROCEEDINGS PAPER % LETTER % REVIEW % EDITORIAL MATERIAL % NOTE % CORRECTION % BOOK REVIEW % NEWS ITEM % BIOGRAPHICAL ITEM % ENGLISH % FRENCH % GERMAN % SPANISH % 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

34 Burkina Faso: scientific co-publication partners ( ) 35% 11.73% 10.08% 7.78% 7.44% 7.22% 6.60% 6.25% 4.92% 4.85% 4.61% 4.48% 3.83% 3.61% 3.21% 3.05% 2.89% 2.49% 2.46% 2.18% 2.12% 2.05% 1.68% 1.56% 1.34% 1.21% 1.21% 1.21% 1.15% 1.12% 1.00% 1.00% 0.93% 0.90% 0.81% 0.75% 0.72% 0.69% 0.69% 0.69% 0.65% 34.23% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FRANCE USA ENGLAND BELGIUM GERMANY ITALY SENEGAL SWITZERLAND MALI COTE IVOIRE NETHERLANDS CAMEROON SWEDEN CANADA GHANA BENIN KENYA NIGER TOGO SOUTH AFRICA DENMARK NIGERIA SCOTLAND TANZANIA SPAIN AUSTRALIA GABON UGANDA CONGO MADAGASCAR AUSTRIA NORWAY THAILAND GUINEA MOROCCO BRAZIL VIETNAM INDIA JAPAN ZIMBABWE CENT AFR REPUBL 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

35 Scientometrics indicators: Burundi

36 Burundi: number of scientific articles listed at WoS UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

37 Burundi: distribution of articles per general topics 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Agriculture Sciences Medical Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SOUTH KOREA 2013UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform, Based on SCOPUS original raw data

38 Burundi: distribution of articles per type and language ARTICLE % NOTE % PROCEEDINGS PAPER % BOOK REVIEW % LETTER % MEETING ABSTRACT % REVIEW % EDITORIAL MATERIAL % NEWS ITEM % REPRINT % ENGLISH % FRENCH % RUSSIAN % GERMAN % ITALIAN % 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

39 Burundi: scientific co-publication partners ( ) 35% 0.64% 10.64% 5.32% 4.47% 4.47% 4.04% 3.40% 2.55% 2.55% 2.34% 1.92% 1.92% 1.70% 1.28% 1.28% 1.06% 1.06% 1.06% 1.06% 1.06% 0.85% 0.85% 0.85% 0.85% 32.34% 17.02% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% COTE IVOIRE BELGIUM FRANCE USA NETHERLANDS PEOPLES R CHINA ZAIRE SWITZERLAND KENYA ENGLAND RWANDA TANZANIA CAMEROON ITALY UGANDA JAPAN SENEGAMBIA AUSTRALIA GERMANY INDONESIA NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA BENIN CONGO FINLAND MALI 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

40 Scientometrics indicators: Côte d Ivoire

41 Côte d Ivoire: number of scientific articles listed at WoS UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

42 Côte d Ivoire: distribution of articles per general topics 60% 50% 40% Agriculture Sciences Medical Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences 30% 20% 10% 0% % SOUTH KOREA 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform. Based on SCOPUS original raw data 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

43 Côte d Ivoire: distribution of articles per type and language ARTICLE % MEETING ABSTRACT % PROCEEDINGS PAPER % LETTER % REVIEW % EDITORIAL MATERIAL % NOTE % BOOK REVIEW % CORRECTION % NEWS ITEM % REPRINT % CORRECTION ADDITION % BOOK CHAPTER % ENGLISH % FRENCH % GERMAN % SPANISH % JAPANESE % GREEK % 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

44 Côte d Ivoire: scientific co-publication partners ( ) 40% 13.14% 7.72% 5.73% 5.03% 4.92% 4.31% 3.04% 2.96% 2.46% 2.07% 1.96% 1.91% 1.80% 1.55% 1.52% 1.44% 1.13% 1.05% 1.02% 1.02% 0.94% 0.83% 0.83% 0.80% 0.80% 0.77% 0.72% 0.72% 0.72% 0.69% 0.66% 0.64% 0.64% 39.66% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FRANCE USA SWITZERLAND BELGIUM GERMANY ENGLAND BURKINA FASO SENEGAL CAMEROON BENIN SOUTH AFRICA ITALY NIGERIA CANADA KENYA GHANA MALI NETHERLANDS TOGO INDIA SCOTLAND NIGER AUSTRALIA UGANDA GUINEA PEOPLES R CHINA THAILAND BRAZIL MOROCCO SPAIN JAPAN ZIMBABWE AUSTRIA CONGO 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

45 Scientometrics indicators: Gabon

46 Gabon: number of scientific articles listed at WoS UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

47 Gabon: distribution of articles per general topics 80% 70% 60% 50% Medical Sciences Exact and Natural Sciences Agriculture Sciences Social and Human Sciences Engineering and Technology 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SOUTH KOREA 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform. Based on SCOPUS original raw data

48 Gabon: distribution of articles per type and language ARTICLE % MEETING ABSTRACT % LETTER % NOTE % PROCEEDINGS PAPER % REVIEW % EDITORIAL MATERIAL % CORRECTION % BOOK REVIEW % NEWS ITEM % DISCUSSION % ENGLISH % FRENCH % DUTCH % GERMAN % SPANISH % PORTUGUESE % 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

49 Gabon: scientific co-publication partners ( ) FRANCE GERMANY USA ENGLAND AUSTRIA CAMEROON BELGIUM NETHERLANDS SCOTLAND SWITZERLAND SOUTH AFRICA SENEGAL BURKINA FASO KENYA CENT AFR REPUBL GHANA CONGO ITALY SPAIN CANADA AUSTRALIA THAILAND MALI TANZANIA JAPAN COTE IVOIRE FED REP GER NIGERIA BRAZIL SWEDEN WALES ZAIRE PORTUGAL UGANDA MALAWI MOZAMBIQUE FRENCH GUIANA BENIN DENMARK INDONESIA 9.71% 5.92% 5.81% 5.01% 5.01% 4.80% 3.74% 2.83% 2.17% 1.97% 1.97% 1.87% 1.82% 1.67% 1.57% 1.57% 1.52% 1.37% 1.37% 1.21% 1.21% 1.11% 1.01% 0.91% 0.86% 0.81% 0.76% 0.76% 0.76% 0.71% 0.71% 0.66% 0.66% 0.61% 0.51% 0.51% 0.51% 15.32% 23.10% 39.54% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

50 Scientometrics indicators: Niger

51 Niger: number of scientific articles listed at WoS UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

52 Niger: distribution of articles per general topics 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Medical Sciences Agriculture Sciences Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences Engineering and Technology 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SOUTH KOREA 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform. Based on SCOPUS original raw data

53 Niger: distribution of articles per type and language ARTICLE % MEETING ABSTRACT % NOTE % LETTER % PROCEEDINGS PAPER % REVIEW % EDITORIAL MATERIAL % BOOK REVIEW % BIOGRAPHICAL ITEM % ENGLISH % FRENCH % GERMAN % SPANISH % 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

54 Niger: scientific co-publication partners ( ) TANZANIA FRANCE USA ENGLAND NIGERIA SENEGAL MALI BELGIUM BURKINA FASO GERMANY INDIA CAMEROON NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND BENIN KENYA ITALY COTE IVOIRE GHANA MADAGASCAR CANADA AUSTRALIA DENMARK SOUTH AFRICA SCOTLAND TOGO GUINEA MOROCCO TUNISIA JAPAN SWEDEN 0.76% 6.93% 6.80% 6.04% 5.72% 5.40% 5.15% 4.57% 4.07% 2.92% 2.86% 2.80% 2.54% 2.48% 2.35% 2.16% 1.78% 1.59% 1.33% 1.21% 1.21% 1.08% 0.95% 0.95% 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 0.76% 0.76% 16.65% 31.77% UGANDA 0.76% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

55 Scientometrics indicators: Senegal

56 Senegal: number of scientific articles listed at WoS ,000 4,000 3,000 Number of scientists in Senegal Articles 300 2, , UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

57 Senegal: distribution of articles per general topics 60% 50% 40% Agriculture Sciences Medical Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences 30% 20% 10% 0% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SOUTH KOREA 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform. Based on SCOPUS original raw data.

58 Senegal: distribution of articles per type and language ARTICLE % MEETING ABSTRACT % LETTER % PROCEEDINGS PAPER % REVIEW % BOOK REVIEW % NOTE % EDITORIAL MATERIAL % CORRECTION % NEWS ITEM % REPRINT % BOOK CHAPTER % CORRECTION ADDITION % DISCUSSION % BIBLIOGRAPHY % ENGLISH % FRENCH % GERMAN % SPANISH % RUSSIAN % PORTUGUESE % 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

59 Senegal: scientific co-publication partners ( ) 40% 6.45% 4.87% 3.72% 3.18% 2.86% 2.67% 2.44% 2.11% 2.02% 1.93% 1.90% 1.74% 1.72% 1.69% 1.63% 1.58% 1.46% 1.41% 1.35% 1.26% 1.23% 1.16% 1.16% 1.11% 1.00% 0.95% 0.88% 0.83% 0.76% 0.69% 0.69% 0.69% 0.69% 0.60% 0.54% 0.53% 0.51% 13.17% 38.01% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FRANCE USA ENGLAND BELGIUM BURKINA FASO CAMEROON SWITZERLAND ITALY MALI GERMANY NETHERLANDS COTE IVOIRE CANADA BENIN GAMBIA SOUTH AFRICA NIGER DENMARK SPAIN KENYA BRAZIL GHANA MOROCCO MAURITANIA NIGERIA MADAGASCAR AUSTRALIA TANZANIA TUNISIA THAILAND GABON GUINEA JAPAN SWEDEN UGANDA TOGO CAMBODIA CENT AFR REPUBL SCOTLAND 2013 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

60 MERCI!! Guillermo A. Lemarchand For further information on GO SPIN visit the following websites: YOU TUBE: GO-SPIN for Science Policy 2012.wmv