Analysing temporal series of SETI input/output indicators for designing new policy instruments

Transcription

1 Analysing temporal series of SETI input/output indicators for designing new policy instruments Guillermo A. Lemarchand Science Policy Consultant Division of Science Policy an Capacity Building UNESCO-Paris

2 SUMMARY What is meant by Scientometrics? Mathematical model to understand the dynamics of long-term coauthorship networks. Results derived from the models and empirical studies. Key findings Scientometrics in Africa Long-term scientometrics analysis in Botswana, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Tanzania. Main results.

3 25 SETImost important nations Main SETI output/input indicators Source: Scientific American, October 2012

4 What is meant by Scientometrics? Scientometrics is the general term for the inventory and statistical analysis of articles, publications and citations and other more complex indicators of scientific output derived from such statistics. Scientometrics indicators are important tools for the evaluation of R&D performance and specialization of countries, institutions, laboratories, individual scientists... Originally based on very simple publications and citations counts, scientometrics now allows, thanks to more and more powerful data processing facilities, the elaboration of sophisticated multidimensional indicators of S&T output and impact, of international cooperation in terms of co-authored publications, co-citations, S&T networking, etc. Scientometrics methods may be used to examine the links between S&T and patenting, for instance through the analysis of references in patent applications to other patents or to the scientific literature. Scientometrics indicators have now long been in use in national and international evaluation practice and publications. They are, of course, not exempt of criticism and should, equally as much as the R&D input series, be interpreted with caution.

5 The importance of long-term temporal series of indicators, their slopes and interpretation Lemarchand (2010)

6 1,000,000 Total number of articles listed at the Web-of-Science ( ) 100,000 10,000 1, R² = R² = China snew Constitution (1982) R² = CHINA USA Lemarchand (2012)

7 FTE Scientists in USA Full Time Equivalent (FTE) People in China 1,600,000 R² = ,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , ,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , ,000 FTE RESEARCHERS FTE S&T PERSONNEL SP(t) = t 3-3,490, t 2 + 6,967,616, t- 4,635,644,790, R² = S(t) = t 3-2E+06t 2 + 3E+09t -2E+12 R² = Lemarchand (2012)

8 % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% PhDs (LAC) Exact and Natural Sciences Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Ingeniería Engineering y Tecnología and Technology Medicina Medicine Agricultura Agriculture Ciencias Social and Sociales Human y Humanas Sciences Distribution of new PhDs against main themes 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% First degrees (LAC) Ciencias Exact and Exactas Natural y Sciences Naturales Ingeniería Engineering y and Tecnología Technology Medicina Medicine Agricultura Agriculture Ciencias Social and Sociales Human y Sciences Humanas Distribution of new graduates against main themes

9 Map of the mainstream global network of co-authorship of scientific articles

10 Scientometrics: co-authorship studies Co-authorship is one of the most tangible and well documented forms of scientific collaboration. Almost every aspect of scientific collaboration networks can be reliably tracked by analyzing coauthorship networks by scientometricmethods. International co-authorship links have undergone dramatic structural changes in the last 25 years. In the last decade new mathematical models were develop to understand scientific networks

11 Dynamics of long-term self-organized co-authorship networks We assume that new researchers join the national scientific network (nodes) following a linear growth process describe by: = + Here S(t)represents total number of nodes, σ the growth constant and represents the total number of nodes when t=0. Based on: G.A. Lemarchand, Research Policy, vol. 41: , 2012

12 Assuming, respectively, K i (t)as the number of links that node ihave at time tand P(t)as the total number of links (co-publications) at time t, we estimate the average number of links per node in the system at time t as: = ( ) ( ) By defining a as the number of newly created internal links per node in unit time, we are able to write the probability that between countries (nodes) iand j,a new scientific paper (internal link) is published as: ℵ = 2,

13 Following the original preferential attachment model developed by Barabásiand Albert (1999) we assume that a node ihas K i links, so the probability that an incoming node will connect to it, is given by ℵ = where βis the average number of new links that an incoming node generates. By doing so, we are able to propose the dynamical rules that govern our evolving network model, capturing the basic mechanism governing the evolution of co-authorship networks: (a) Nodes join the network at a constant rate; (b) Incoming nodes link to the already present nodes following preferential attachment; (c) Nodes already present in the network form new internal links following preferential attachment.

14 By doing some calculations it is easy to show that the average number of links per node increases linearly in time as: = +2 By introducing a change of variables: = ; = +2 ; =2 ; we can re-write (8) as: = + + Means that if the evolution of scientists in a national network increases linearly, the co-publications with preferential attachment increases quadraticly.

15 Evolution of FTE Researchers for several developed countries Full Time Equivalent Researchers in Germany, France, Canada, and The Netherlands 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 GERMANY FRANCE CANADA NETHERLANDS USA (right axis) R² = R² = R² = R² = R² = ,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 FTE Researchers in USA Lemarchand (2012)

16 Number of co-publications per year listed at WoS Spain USA France United Kingdom Germany Italy Number of co-publications per year listed at WoS Argentina USA Spain Brazil France Germany Lemarchand (2012) Lemarchand (2012)

17 What happens when the long-term evolution of FTE scientists has not a linear growth? 400, ,000 India y = x x 2 + 1E+08x -8E+10 R² = ,400,000 1,200,000 Russian Federation Total R&D personnel 300, ,000 Total R&D personnel 1,000, , ,000 FTE scientists 800, ,000 y = x + 4E+07 R² = ,000 50,000 y = x x 2 + 1E+08x -7E+10 R² = Lemarchand (2012) , ,000 FTE scientists y = x + 2E+07 R² = Lemarchand (2012)

18 What happens when the long-term evolution of FTE scientists has not a linear growth 2 700, ,000 FTE scientists Japan 70,000 60,000 Lemarchand (2012) Israel 500,000 50, , ,000 y = 21171x -4E+07 R² = ,000 30,000 y = 3E-35e x R² = ,000 20,000 FTE scientists in the Academia 100,000 Lemarchand (2012) ,

19 Number of co-authorship articles with USA listed at the WoS ( ) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Different co-authorship behaviour in co-publications with USA (major scientific hub in the world) 500 Lemarchand (2012) ISRAEL RUSSIA INDIA SWEDEN P(t) = t 2-6, t+ 6,556, R² = Negative quadratic growth P(t)= t-137, (Russian Federation) R² = P(t)= t , t - 29,316, R² = Linear growth (Israel) Quadratic growth (Sweden) Quartic growth (India) P(t)= t t , t 2-76,904, t + 38,122,244, R² =

20 Social Contract of Science Linear Model of Science "Science the Endless Frontier" New Social Contract of Science Sustainable Science and Development Paradigm Diffusion of Techno-Economic Paradigms for the Organization of STI Structures and Policies Formulation Organization Action Questioning Formulation Organization Action Questioning Formulation Organization Action

21 Emergence of sustainable science as a new consolidate paradigm Sustainable Science Paradigm consolidated Source: Bettencourt & Kaur, PNAS,Vol. 108 (49) Dec.6, 2011 UNESCO-ICSU- WCS Budapest 1999

22 Geographical distribution and links for the production of knowledge using the sustainable science paradigm Africa is the less connected region within the Production of Sustainable Science New Knowledge

23 Scientometrics in Africa

24 Area GDP Distributions of area, population, GDP and scientific publications by the 5 UNESCO Regions (not necessary in agreement with traditional geographical regions) Population Scientific articles

25 Evolution of World s GDP shares

26 1969

27 Ref.: UNESCO, Scientific Research in Africa, National Policies, Research Institutions, Paris, 1966: pp

28 Source: Nature(2011)

29 Input/Output SETI indicators: Botswana

30 Botswana: Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

31 Botswana: Researchers Researchers (HC) 1967: : : 1,732 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

32 Botswana: number of scientific articles listed at WoS Number of articles listed at the WoS P(t) = t t t -2E+07 R² = UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

33 Botswana: distribution of articles per general topics 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Agricultural and Biological Sciences Medicine, Immunology, Pharmacology & Health Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform Botswana (C)2012Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building UNESCO GO SPIN platform

34 Botswana: scientific co-publication partners ( ) 18% 16% 6.44% 2.83% 2.77% 2.41% 2.02% 1.96% 1.90% 1.87% 1.84% 1.84% 1.75% 1.66% 1.39% 1.30% 1.27% 1.24% 1.14% 1.08% 1.05% 0.96% 0.87% 0.81% 0.78% 0.78% 0.69% 0.66% 0.63% 0.60% 0.48% 3.16% 10.81% 16.20% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Co-publication with African Countries ( ): % USA SOUTH AFRICA ENGLAND CANADA AUSTRALIA GERMANY NIGERIA NORWAY KENYA NETHERLANDS CAMEROON ZIMBABWE SWEDEN INDIA FRANCE TANZANIA SWITZERLAND BELGIUM SCOTLAND ITALY MALAWI ZAMBIA ETHIOPIA UGANDA DENMARK JAPAN NAMIBIA NEW ZEALAND MEXICO BRAZIL SWAZILAND REST OF AFRICA 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

35 Botswana: most productive research organizations ( ) UNIV BOTSWANA 52.15% UNIV BOTSWANA SWAZILAND 13.40% BOTSWANA COLL AGR 4.88% BOTSWANA HARVARD AIDS 2.86% BOTSWANA MINIST HLTH 2.83% PRINCESS MARINA HOSP 2.35% GEOL SURVEY BOTSWANA 1.51% MINIST AGR 1.39% BOTSWANA NATL VET LAB 1.39% BOTSWANA DEPT WILDLIFE 1.36% DEPT AGR RES 0.93% BOTUSA PROJECT 0.90% BAMALETE LUTHERAN HOSP 0.72% UNIV COLL BOTSWANA 0.72% DEPT ANIM HLTH PROD 0.63% BOTSWANA UNIV 0.63% OBAFEMI AWOLOWO UNIV 0.54% CIET TRUST BOTSWANA 0.45% BOTSWANA NATL HLTH LAB 0.42% BOTSWANA PREDATOR 0.39% INST HLTH SCI 0.24% NYANGABGWE HOSP 0.24% BIRDLIFE BOTSWANA 0.21% BOTSWANA BAYLOR 0.21% GOVT BOTSWANA 0.21% MINIST FINANCE DEV PLANNING 0.21% BOTSWANA POLYTECH 0.18% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

36 Input/Output SETI indicators: Malawi

37 Malawi: Researchers Researchers (FTE) 1977: : : 733(HC) UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

38 Number of scientific articles listed at WoS Malawi: number of scientific articles listed at WoS P(t) = t t t 2-1E+07 t + 7E+09 R² = UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

39 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Malawi: distribution of articles per general topics 0% Agricultural and Biological Sciences Medicine, Immunology, Pharmacology & Health Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform Malawi (C)2012Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building UNESCO GO SPIN platform

40 Malawi: scientific co-publication partners ( ) 30% 7.26% 5.43% 4.05% 3.64% 3.45% 3.28% 3.14% 2.76% 2.71% 2.43% 2.36% 2.28% 2.02% 1.86% 1.45% 1.45% 1.31% 1.24% 1.12% 1.00% 0.98% 0.98% 0.95% 0.95% 0.93% 0.83% 0.79% 0.74% 0.69% 0.62% 5.81% 28.91% 27.79% 25% 20% Co-publication with African Countries ( ): % 15% 10% 5% 0% ENGLAND USA SOUTH AFRICA NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND AUSTRALIA KENYA TANZANIA FRANCE ZIMBABWE ZAMBIA CANADA GERMANY SCOTLAND BELGIUM UGANDA FINLAND GHANA NORWAY INDIA LUXEMBOURG SWEDEN DENMARK IRELAND GAMBIA THAILAND NIGERIA BOTSWANA ITALY MOZAMBIQUE ETHIOPIA BRAZIL REST OF AFRICA 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

41 Malawi: most productive research organizations ( ) 49.47% 50% 40% 30% UNIV MALAWI MALAWI MINIST HLTH 8.80% QUEEN ELIZABETH CENT 5.46% MALAWI LIVERPOOL 3.62% KAMUZU CENT HOSP 3.33% TEA RES FDN CENT AFRICA 1.50% NATL TB CONTROL 1.48% LILONGWE CENT HOSP 1.21% INT UNION TB LUNG DIS 1.07% UNC PROJECT 1.00% CHITEDZE AGR RES STN 0.88% MINIST AGR NAT RESOURCES 0.76% FORESTRY RES INST MALAWI 0.64% MZUZU UNIV 0.64% MZUZU CENT HOSP 0.57% CHITEDZE RES STN 0.40% ZOMBA CENT HOSP 0.33% BVUMBWE AGR RES STN 0.26% DEPT FISHERIES 0.26% MALAWI COUNTRY OFF 0.24% UNIV MALAWI POLYTECH 0.24% GOVT MALAWI 0.12% 20% 10% 0% 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

42 Input/Output SETI indicators: Zambia

43 Zambia: Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

44 Zambia: FTE Researchers FTE RESEARCHERS IN ZAMBIA UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

45 Zambia: Researchers 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

46 Number of scientific articles listed at WoS Zambia: number of scientific articles listed at WoS UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

47 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Zambia: distribution of articles per general topics 0% Agricultural and Biological Sciences Medicine, Immunology, Pharmacology & Health Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences Zambia (C)2012Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building UNESCO GO SPIN platform

48 Zambia: scientific co-publication partners ( ) REST OF AFRICA USA ENGLAND SOUTH AFRICA BELGIUM KENYA SWITZERLAND JAPAN ZIMBABWE NETHERLANDS MALAWI UGANDA TANZANIA SWEDEN NORWAY CANADA INDIA AUSTRALIA GERMANY SCOTLAND DENMARK RWANDA NIGERIA FRANCE ITALY AUSTRIA PEOPLES R CHINA PAKISTAN 3.54% 3.33% 3.26% 3.11% 2.78% 2.52% 2.48% 2.39% 2.13% 2.02% 1.85% 1.72% 1.70% 1.61% 1.54% 1.39% 1.17% 1.11% 1.09% 1.07% 1.07% 0.91% 0.80% 0.72% 0.70% 6.41% 14.28% 6.65% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Co-publication with African Countries ( ): % 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

49 Zambia: most productive research organizations ( ) 50% 47.80% 40% 30% UNIV ZAMBIA UNIV TEACHING HOSP 10.24% TROP DIS RES CTR 4.07% ZAMBIAN MINIST HLTH 3.33% UNIV LUSAKA 2.74% CTR INFECT DIS RES 2.61% COPPERBELT UNIV 1.39% MALARIA INST MACHA 1.13% NATL COUNCIL SCI RES 1.11% LUSAKA DIST HLTH 0.94% ZAMBIA EMORY HIV RES 0.94% MINIST AGR FOOD 0.93% ZAMBIA BLOOD 0.89% ST FRANCIS HOSP 0.85% ZAMBIA CONSOLIDATED 0.83% NDOLA CENT HOSP 0.65% NATL MALARIA CONTROL 0.63% CENT VET RES INST 0.59% ZAMBIA ICRAF 0.44% ZAMBIA WILDLIFE AUTHOR 0.41% CHIKANKATA HLTH SERV 0.39% MT MAKULU RES STN 0.39% RWANDA ZAMBIA HIV 0.39% NATL FOOD NUTR 0.37% NATL VET INST 0.35% 20% 10% 0% 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

50 Input/Output SETI indicators: Zimbabwe

51 Zimbabwe: number of scientific articles listed at WoS Number of scientific articles listed WoS UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

52 Zimbabwe: distribution of articles per general topics 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Agricultural and Biological Sciences Medicine, Immunology, Pharmacology & Health Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences Zimbabwe (C)2012Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building UNESCO

53 Zimbabwe: scientific co-publication partners ( ) 16% 2.83% 2.80% 2.46% 2.28% 2.04% 2.00% 2.00% 1.99% 1.81% 1.69% 1.67% 1.57% 1.52% 1.50% 1.28% 1.24% 1.03% 0.89% 0.85% 0.80% 0.67% 0.63% 4.28% 11.76% 10.05% 5.31% 14.91% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Co-publication with African Countries ( ): % USA ENGLAND SOUTH AFRICA NETHERLANDS FRANCE KENYA SWITZERLAND CANADA SWEDEN AUSTRALIA DENMARK GERMANY UGANDA SCOTLAND ZAMBIA BELGIUM MALAWI NORWAY TANZANIA INDIA NIGERIA ITALY THAILAND BOTSWANA PEOPLES R CHINA BRAZIL REST OF AFRICA 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

54 Zimbabwe: most productive research organizations ( ) 60% 3.17% 2.25% 2.04% 1.28% 1.06% 0.82% 0.81% 0.79% 0.73% 0.72% 0.72% 0.72% 0.59% 0.48% 0.45% 0.43% 56.13% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% UNIV ZIMBABWE NATL UNIV SCI TECHNOL BLAIR RES LAB BIOMED RES TRAINING INST MINIST HLTH ARRUPE COLL GODFREY HUGGINS SCH MED DEPT VET SERV MINIST HLTH CHILD WELF HARARE CENT HOSP BINDURA UNIV SCI EDUC NATL INST HLTH RES PARIRENYATWA HOSP MPILO HOSP ZVITAMBO PROJECT UNITED BULAWAYO HOSP CHEM SOIL RES INST 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

55 Input/Output SETI indicators : Mozambique

56 Mozambique: Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

57 Mozambique: Researchers 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

58 Mozambique: number of scientific articles listed at WoS UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

59 Mozambique: distribution of articles per general topics 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Agricultural and Biological Sciences Medicine, Immunology, Pharmacology & Health Sciences Engineering and Technology Exact and Natural Sciences Social and Human Sciences Mozambique (C)2012Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building - UNESCO 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

60 Publications: United Republic of Tanzania

61 Tanzania: Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

62 Tanzania: Researchers 2012 UNESCO Institute for Statistics

63 Tanzania: number of scientific articles listed at WoS Number of documents listed at Web of Science SCI+SSCI+A&HCI Lemarchand (2012) Transition Total number of documents per million people Articles All type of documents Total docs per million people 2012 UNESCO Division of Science Policy and Capacity Building / GO SPIN platform

64 Long-term dynamics of co-authorship patterns in Tanzania Number of articles listed at WoS Lemarchand (2012) USA UK Switzerland Netherlands Sweden Kenya

65 Aggregated number of articles with Authors from Tanzania by discipline ( ) Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics Neuroscience Multidisciplinary Lemarchand (2012) Physics and Astronomy Nursing Medicine Agricultural and Biological Sciences Veterinary 2500 Arts and Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics and Social Sciences Molecular Biology Business, Management and Psychology 2000 Accounting Mathematics Materials Science Immunology and Microbiology Health Professions Energy Engineering Environmental Science Chemical Engineering Chemistry Computer Science Decision Sciences Dentistry Earth and Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics and Finance

66 Thank you!! Guillermo A. Lemarchand For further information on GO SPIN visit the following websites: YOU TUBE: GO-SPIN for Science Policy 2012.wmv

67 10000 y = 2E-29e x R² = y = 4E-22e x R² = y = 4E-12e x R² = y = 1E-74e x R² = y = 7E-75e x R² = y = 2E-42e x R² = y = 5E-43e x R² = Costa Rica Croacia Publicaciones Nueva Zelanda y = 2E-22e x R² = Publicaciones por Millón de habitantes y = 3E-09e x R² = Lemarchand (2011)

68 Distribution of mainstream innovation indicators produced by WEF(2012) Source: Scientific American, October 2012 Germany China